Cost risk benefit analysis to support chemoprophylaxis policy for travellers to malaria endemic countries

Background: In a number of malaria endemic regions, tourists and travellers face a declining risk of travel associated malaria, in part due to successful malaria control. Many millions of visitors to these regions are recommended, via national and international policy, to use chemoprophylaxis which has a well recognized morbidity profile. To evaluate whether current malaria chemo-prophylactic policy for travellers is cost effective when adjusted for endemic transmission risk and duration of exposure. a framework, based on partial cost-benefit analysis was used Methods: Using a three component model combining a probability component, a cost component and a malaria risk component, the study estimated health costs avoided through use of chemoprophylaxis and costs of disease prevention (including adverse events and pre-travel advice for visits to five popular high and low malaria endemic regions) and malaria transmission risk using imported malaria cases and numbers of travellers to malarious countries. By calculating the minimal threshold malaria risk below which the economic costs of chemoprophylaxis are greater than the avoided health costs we were able to identify the point at which chemoprophylaxis would be economically rational. Results: The threshold incidence at which malaria chemoprophylaxis policy becomes cost effective for UK travellers is an accumulated risk of 1.13% assuming a given set of cost parameters. The period a travellers need to remain exposed to achieve this accumulated risk varied from 30 to more than 365 days, depending on the regions intensity of malaria transmission. Conclusions: The cost-benefit analysis identified that chemoprophylaxis use was not a cost-effective policy for travellers to Thailand or the Amazon region of Brazil, but was cost-effective for travel to West Africa and for those staying longer than 45 days in India and Indonesia.

Modeling the risk of malaria for travelers to areas with stable malaria transmission

Background: Malaria is an important threat to travelers visiting endemic regions. The risk of acquiring malaria is complex and a number of factors including transmission intensity, duration of exposure, season of the year and use of chemoprophylaxis have to be taken into account estimating risk. Materials and methods: A mathematical model was developed to estimate the risk of non-immune individual acquiring falciparum malaria when traveling to the Amazon region of Brazil. The risk of malaria infection to travelers was calculated as a function of duration of exposure and season of arrival. Results: The results suggest significant variation of risk for non-immune travelers depending on arrival season, duration of the visit and transmission intensity. The calculated risk for visitors staying longer than 4 months during peak transmission was 0.5% per visit. Conclusions: Risk estimates based on mathematical modeling based on accurate data can be a valuable tool in assessing risk/benefits and cost/benefits when deciding on the value of interventions for travelers to malaria endemic regions.

The 2008 update of the Aspergillus nidulans genome annotation: A community effort

The identification and annotation of protein-coding genes is one of the primary goals of whole-genome sequencing projects, and the accuracy of predicting the primary protein products of gene expression is vital to the interpretation of the available data and the design of downstream functional applications. Nevertheless, the comprehensive annotation of eukaryotic genomes remains a considerable challenge. Many genomes submitted to public databases, including those of major model organisms, contain significant numbers of wrong and incomplete gene predictions. We present a community-based reannotation of the Aspergillus nidulans genome with the primary goal of increasing the number and quality of protein functional assignments through the careful review of experts in the field of fungal biology. (C) 2009 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

An optimization model for antibiotic use

There is a positive correlation between the intensity of use of a given antibiotic and the prevalence of resistant strains. The more you treat, more patients infected with resistant strains appears and, as a consequence, the higher the mortality due to the infection and the longer the hospitalization time. In contrast, the less you treat, the higher the mortality rates and the longer the hospitalization time of patients infected with sensitive strains that could be successfully treated. The hypothesis proposed in this paper is an attempt to solve such a conflict: there must be an optimum treatment intensity that minimizes both the additional mortality and hospitalization time due to the infection by both sensitive and resistant bacteria strains. In order to test this hypothesis we applied a simple mathematical model that allowed us to estimate the optimum proportion of patients to be treated in order to minimize the total number of deaths and hospitalization time due to the infection in a hospital setting. (C) 2007 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

The risk of chikungunya fever in a dengue-endemic area

Background. Chikungunya, an alphavirus of the Togaviridae family, causes a febrile disease transmitted to humans by the bite of infected Aedes mosquitoes. This infection is reaching endemic levels in many Southeast Asian countries. Symptoms include sudden onset of fever, chills, headache, nausea, vomiting, joint pain with or without swelling, low back pain, and rash. According to the World Health Organization, there are 2 billion people living in Aedes-infested areas. In addition, traveling to these areas is popular, making the potential risk of infections transmitted by the bite of infected Aedes mosquitoes very high. Methods. We proposed a mathematical model to estimate the risk of acquiring chikungunya fever in an Aedes-infested area by taking the prevalence of dengue fever into account. The basic reproduction number for chikungunya fever R-0chik can be written as a function of the basic reproduction number of dengue R-0dengue by calculating the ratio R-0chik/R-0dengue. From R-0chik, we estimated the force of infection and the risk of acquiring the disease both for local residents of a dengue-endemic area and for travelers to this area. Results. We calculated that R-0chik is 64.4% that of R-0dengue. The model was applied to a hypothetical situation, namely, estimating the individual risk of acquiring chikungunya fever in a dengue-endemic area, both for local inhabitants (22% in steady state) and for visiting travelers (from 0.31% to 1.23% depending on the time spent in the area). Conclusions. The method proposed based on the output of a dynamical model is innovative and provided an estimation of the risk of infection, both for local inhabitants and for visiting travelers.

Modeling the Competition Between Viruses in a Complex Plant-Pathogen System

In this article, we propose a mathematical model that describes the competition between two plant virus strains (MAV and PAV) for both the host plant (oat) and their aphid vectors. We found that although PAV is transmitted by two aphids and MAV by only one, this fact, by itself, does not explain the complete replacement of MAV by PAV in New York State during the period from 1961 through 1976; an interpretation that is in agreement with the theories of A. G. Power. Also, although MAV wins the competition within aphids, we assumed that, in 1961, PAV mutated into a new variant such that this new variant was able to overcome MAV within the plants during a latent period. As shown below, this is sufficient to explain the swap of strains; that is, the dominant MAV was replaced by PAV, also in agreement with Power`s expectations.

Modeling the Dynamics of Viral Evolution Considering Competition Within Individual Hosts and at Population Level: The Effects of Treatment

We consider two viral strains competing against each other within individual hosts (at cellular level) and at population level (for infecting hosts) by studying two cases. In the first case, the strains do not mutate into each other. In this case, we found that each individual in the population can be infected by only one strain and that co-existence in the population is possible only when the strain that has the greater basic intracellular reproduction number, R (0c) , has the smaller population number R (0p) . Treatment against the one strain shifts the population equilibrium toward the other strain in a complicated way (see Appendix B). In the second case, we assume that the strain that has the greater intracellular number R (0c) can mutate into the other strain. In this case, individual hosts can be simultaneously infected by both strains (co-existence within the host). Treatment shifts the prevalence of the two strains within the hosts, depending on the mortality induced by the treatment, which is, in turn, dependent upon the doses given to each individual. The relative proportions of the strains at the population level, under treatment, depend both on the relative proportions within the hosts (which is determined by the dosage of treatment) and on the number of individuals treated per unit time, that is, the rate of treatment. Implications for cases of real diseases are briefly discussed.

Tempos de Eduardo Lourenço: Fotobiografia

Revista Lusófona de Línguas, Culturas e Tradução

Recensão de: Maria de Sousa Pereira Coutinho, (2002) Racionalidade comunicativa e desenvolvimento humano em Jurgen Habermas. Bases de um pensamento educacional. Lisboa: Edições Colibri, 416 pp.

Revista Lusófona de Educação

Recovery of Trypanosoma forattinii Coutinho and Pattoli from a Trinidadian rodent

Recovery of Trypanosoma forattinii from natural infected Oryzomys capito velutinus from Trinidad, is reported. Negative results were obtained with attempts to infect experimentally, several laboratories animals, silvatyc rodents of the same ecological area and several species of triatomids bugs. Positive results were obtained only by using O. capito velutinus born in laboratory.

Multi-attribute classification of housing conservation status in urban regeneration actions

Urban regeneration is more and more a “universal issue” and a crucial factor in the new trends of urban planning. It is no longer only an area of study and research; it became part of new urban and housing policies. Urban regeneration involves complex decisions as a consequence of the multiple dimensions of the problems that include special technical requirements, safety concerns, socio-economic, environmental, aesthetic, and political impacts, among others. This multi-dimensional nature of urban regeneration projects and their large capital investments justify the development and use of state-of-the-art decision support methodologies to assist decision makers. This research focuses on the development of a multi-attribute approach for the evaluation of building conservation status in urban regeneration projects, thus supporting decision makers in their analysis of the problem and in the definition of strategies and priorities of intervention. The methods presented can be embedded into a Geographical Information System for visualization of results. A real-world case study was used to test the methodology, whose results are also presented.

Dengue and the risk of urban yellow fever reintroduction in São Paulo State, Brazil

OBJECTIVE: To propose a mathematical method for the estimation of the Basic Reproduction Number, R0, of urban yellow fever in a dengue-infested area. METHODS: The method is based on the assumption that, as the same vector (Aedes aegypti) causes both infections, all the quantities related to the mosquito, estimated from the initial phase of dengue epidemic, could be applied to yellow fever dynamics. It is demonstrated that R0 for yellow fever is, on average, 43% lower than that for dengue. This difference is due to the longer dengue viremia and its shorter extrinsic incubation period. RESULTS: In this study the analysis was expanded to the epidemiological situation of dengue in São Paulo in the year 2001. The total number of dengue cases increased from 3,582 in 2000 to 51,348 in 2001. It was then calculated R0 for yellow fever for every city which have shown R0 of dengue greater than 1. It was also estimated the total number of unprotected people living in highly risky areas for urban yellow fever. CONCLUSIONS: Currently there is a great number of non-vaccinated people living in Aedes aegypti infested area in the state of São Paulo.

Incidência de Enterococcus resistente à vancomicina em hospital universitário no Brasil

OBJETIVO: O enterococo resistente à vancomicina é atualmente um dos principais microorganismos implicados em infecções nosocomiais. Assim, realizou-se estudo com o objetivo de avaliar sua epidemiologia em um hospital terciário de ensino. MÉTODOS: Trata-se de um estudo epidemiológico retrospectivo, realizado de 2000 a 2002, que analisou amostras de culturas clínicas positivas para enterococo resistente à vancomicina (VRE) em um hospital universitário com 660 leitos. Procurou-se definir sua incidência e os principais sítios e unidades de isolamento. Foi verificada a significância entre as variáveis nos três anos de estudo, sendo considerado como significante p<0,05. RESULTADOS: Houve aumento progressivo na resistência à vancomicina nas culturas clínicas positivas para Enterococcus spp. nos três anos de estudo. Em 2000, 9,5% das amostras eram resistentes à vancomicina, com aumento para 14,7% em 2001 e 15,8% em 2002. As unidades com maior número de isolados foram respectivamente: pronto-socorro (19,5%) e UTI geral (15%); os sítios mais isolados foram: urina (36%) e sangue (20%). CONCLUSÕES: Com o aumento progressivo na incidência de resistência à vancomicina e da taxa de VRE, concluiu-se ser necessárias medidas de controle mais efetivas para deter a disseminação do VRE.