A model for the economic evaluation of master city plans: a pilot study of Västerås, Sweden

The paper introduces the framework, problems addressed, objective function, types of variables and so on for a model designed to facilitate the economic evaluation of master city plans. The model presented here has been used in a pilot study of the city of Vasteras, Sweden. It consists of three main parts, data, results and method. Some conclusions are drawn.

A contribution for thermoeconomic modelling: A methodology proposal

This work presents a thermoeconomic optimization methodology for the analysis and design of energy systems. This methodology involves economic aspects related to the exergy conception, in order to develop a tool to assist the equipment selection, operation mode choice as well as to optimize the thermal plants design. It also presents the concepts related to exergy in a general scope and in thermoeconomics which combines the thermal sciences principles (thermodynamics, heat transfer, and fluid mechanics) and the economic engineering in order to rationalize energy systems investment decisions, development and operation. Even in this paper, it develops a thermoeconomic methodology through the use of a simple mathematical model, involving thermodynamics parameters and costs evaluation, also defining the objective function as the exergetic production cost. The optimization problem evaluation is developed for two energy systems. First is applied to a steam compression refrigeration system and then to a cogeneration system using backpressure steam turbine. (C) 2010 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Parallel Dynamic Optimization of Steel Risers

This paper addresses the use of optimization techniques in the design of a steel riser. Two methods are used: the genetic algorithm, which imitates the process of natural selection, and the simulated annealing, which is based on the process of annealing of a metal. Both of them are capable of searching a given solution space for the best feasible riser configuration according to predefined criteria. Optimization issues are discussed, such as problem codification, parameter selection, definition of objective function, and restrictions. A comparison between the results obtained for economic and structural objective functions is made for a case study. Optimization method parallelization is also addressed. [DOI: 10.1115/1.4001955]

Optimizing model predictive control of an industrial distillation column

The main scope of this work is the implementation of an MPC that integrates the control and the economic optimization of the system. The two problems are solved simultaneously through the modification of the control cost function that includes an additional term related to the economic objective. The optimizing MPC is based on a quadratic program (QP) as the conventional MPC and can be solved with the available QP solvers. The method was implemented in an industrial distillation system, and the results show that the approach is efficient and can be used, in several practical cases. (C) 2011 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Sensing Cloud Optimization to Solve ED of Units with Valve-Point Effects and Multi-fuels

In this paper a solution to an highly constrained and non-convex economical dispatch (ED) problem with a meta-heuristic technique named Sensing Cloud Optimization (SCO) is presented. The proposed meta-heuristic is based on a cloud of particles whose central point represents the objective function value and the remaining particles act as sensors "to fill" the search space and "guide" the central particle so it moves into the best direction. To demonstrate its performance, a case study with multi-fuel units and valve- point effects is presented.

Gestão de Recursos Energéticos nas SmartGrids

A sustentabilidade do sistema energético é crucial para o desenvolvimento económico e social das sociedades presentes e futuras. Para garantir o bom funcionamento dos sistemas de energia actua-se, tipicamente, sobre a produção e sobre as redes de transporte e de distribuição. No entanto, a integração crescente de produção distribuída, principalmente nas redes de distribuição de média e de baixa tensão, a liberalização dos mercados energéticos, o desenvolvimento de mecanismos de armazenamento de energia, o desenvolvimento de sistemas automatizados de controlo de cargas e os avanços tecnológicos das infra-estruturas de comunicação impõem o desenvolvimento de novos métodos de gestão e controlo dos sistemas de energia. O contributo deste trabalho é o desenvolvimento de uma metodologia de gestão de recursos energéticos num contexto de SmartGrids, considerando uma entidade designada por VPP que gere um conjunto de instalações (unidades produtoras, consumidores e unidades de armazenamento) e, em alguns casos, tem ao seu cuidado a gestão de uma parte da rede eléctrica. Os métodos desenvolvidos contemplam a penetração intensiva de produção distribuída, o aparecimento de programas de Demand Response e o desenvolvimento de novos sistemas de armazenamento. São ainda propostos níveis de controlo e de tomada de decisão hierarquizados e geridos por entidades que actuem num ambiente de cooperação mas também de concorrência entre si. A metodologia proposta foi desenvolvida recorrendo a técnicas determinísticas, nomeadamente, à programação não linear inteira mista, tendo sido consideradas três funções objectivo distintas (custos mínimos, emissões mínimas e cortes de carga mínimos), originando, posteriormente, uma função objectivo global, o que permitiu determinar os óptimos de Pareto. São ainda determinados os valores dos custos marginais locais em cada barramento e consideradas as incertezas dos dados de entrada, nomeadamente, produção e consumo. Assim, o VPP tem ao seu dispor um conjunto de soluções que lhe permitirão tomar decisões mais fundamentadas e de acordo com o seu perfil de actuação. São apresentados dois casos de estudo. O primeiro utiliza uma rede de distribuição de 32 barramentos publicada por Baran & Wu. O segundo caso de estudo utiliza uma rede de distribuição de 114 barramentos adaptada da rede de 123 barramentos do IEEE.

Essays on bounded rationality: Individual decision and strategic interaction

Economics is a social science which, therefore, focuses on people and on the decisions they make, be it in an individual context, or in group situations. It studies human choices, in face of needs to be fulfilled, and a limited amount of resources to fulfill them. For a long time, there was a convergence between the normative and positive views of human behavior, in that the ideal and predicted decisions of agents in economic models were entangled in one single concept. That is, it was assumed that the best that could be done in each situation was exactly the choice that would prevail. Or, at least, that the facts that economics needed to explain could be understood in the light of models in which individual agents act as if they are able to make ideal decisions. However, in the last decades, the complexity of the environment in which economic decisions are made and the limits on the ability of agents to deal with it have been recognized, and incorporated into models of decision making in what came to be known as the bounded rationality paradigm. This was triggered by the incapacity of the unboundedly rationality paradigm to explain observed phenomena and behavior. This thesis contributes to the literature in three different ways. Chapter 1 is a survey on bounded rationality, which gathers and organizes the contributions to the field since Simon (1955) first recognized the necessity to account for the limits on human rationality. The focus of the survey is on theoretical work rather than the experimental literature which presents evidence of actual behavior that differs from what classic rationality predicts. The general framework is as follows. Given a set of exogenous variables, the economic agent needs to choose an element from the choice set that is avail- able to him, in order to optimize the expected value of an objective function (assuming his preferences are representable by such a function). If this problem is too complex for the agent to deal with, one or more of its elements is simplified. Each bounded rationality theory is categorized according to the most relevant element it simplifes. Chapter 2 proposes a novel theory of bounded rationality. Much in the same fashion as Conlisk (1980) and Gabaix (2014), we assume that thinking is costly in the sense that agents have to pay a cost for performing mental operations. In our model, if they choose not to think, such cost is avoided, but they are left with a single alternative, labeled the default choice. We exemplify the idea with a very simple model of consumer choice and identify the concept of isofin curves, i.e., sets of default choices which generate the same utility net of thinking cost. Then, we apply the idea to a linear symmetric Cournot duopoly, in which the default choice can be interpreted as the most natural quantity to be produced in the market. We find that, as the thinking cost increases, the number of firms thinking in equilibrium decreases. More interestingly, for intermediate levels of thinking cost, an equilibrium in which one of the firms chooses the default quantity and the other best responds to it exists, generating asymmetric choices in a symmetric model. Our model is able to explain well-known regularities identified in the Cournot experimental literature, such as the adoption of different strategies by players (Huck et al. , 1999), the inter temporal rigidity of choices (Bosch-Dom enech & Vriend, 2003) and the dispersion of quantities in the context of di cult decision making (Bosch-Dom enech & Vriend, 2003). Chapter 3 applies a model of bounded rationality in a game-theoretic set- ting to the well-known turnout paradox in large elections, pivotal probabilities vanish very quickly and no one should vote, in sharp contrast with the ob- served high levels of turnout. Inspired by the concept of rhizomatic thinking, introduced by Bravo-Furtado & Côrte-Real (2009a), we assume that each per- son is self-delusional in the sense that, when making a decision, she believes that a fraction of the people who support the same party decides alike, even if no communication is established between them. This kind of belief simplifies the decision of the agent, as it reduces the number of players he believes to be playing against { it is thus a bounded rationality approach. Studying a two-party first-past-the-post election with a continuum of self-delusional agents, we show that the turnout rate is positive in all the possible equilibria, and that it can be as high as 100%. The game displays multiple equilibria, at least one of which entails a victory of the bigger party. The smaller one may also win, provided its relative size is not too small; more self-delusional voters in the minority party decreases this threshold size. Our model is able to explain some empirical facts, such as the possibility that a close election leads to low turnout (Geys, 2006), a lower margin of victory when turnout is higher (Geys, 2006) and high turnout rates favoring the minority (Bernhagen & Marsh, 1997).

Comparison of single and multi-objective evolutionary algorithms for robust link-state routing

Traffic Engineering (TE) approaches are increasingly impor- tant in network management to allow an optimized configuration and resource allocation. In link-state routing, the task of setting appropriate weights to the links is both an important and a challenging optimization task. A number of different approaches has been put forward towards this aim, including the successful use of Evolutionary Algorithms (EAs). In this context, this work addresses the evaluation of three distinct EAs, a single and two multi-objective EAs, in two tasks related to weight setting optimization towards optimal intra-domain routing, knowing the network topology and aggregated traffic demands and seeking to mini- mize network congestion. In both tasks, the optimization considers sce- narios where there is a dynamic alteration in the state of the system, in the first considering changes in the traffic demand matrices and in the latter considering the possibility of link failures. The methods will, thus, need to simultaneously optimize for both conditions, the normal and the altered one, following a preventive TE approach towards robust configurations. Since this can be formulated as a bi-objective function, the use of multi-objective EAs, such as SPEA2 and NSGA-II, came nat- urally, being those compared to a single-objective EA. The results show a remarkable behavior of NSGA-II in all proposed tasks scaling well for harder instances, and thus presenting itself as the most promising option for TE in these scenarios.

Combining non-dominance, objective-order and spread metric to extend firefly algorithm to multi-objective optimization

In this paper, we propose an extension of the firefly algorithm (FA) to multi-objective optimization. FA is a swarm intelligence optimization algorithm inspired by the flashing behavior of fireflies at night that is capable of computing global solutions to continuous optimization problems. Our proposal relies on a fitness assignment scheme that gives lower fitness values to the positions of fireflies that correspond to non-dominated points with smaller aggregation of objective function distances to the minimum values. Furthermore, FA randomness is based on the spread metric to reduce the gaps between consecutive non-dominated solutions. The obtained results from the preliminary computational experiments show that our proposal gives a dense and well distributed approximated Pareto front with a large number of points.

Importância da Programação Linear na Determinação de Informações de Gestão - Caso Moave, Sa

A Investigação Operacional vem demonstrando ser uma valiosa ferramenta de gestão nos dias de hoje em que se vive num mercado cada vez mais competitivo. Através da Programação Linear pode-se reproduzir matematicamente um problema de maximização dos resultados ou minimização dos custos de produção com o propósito de auxiliar os gestores na tomada de decisão. A Programação Linear é um método matemático em que a função objectivo e as restrições assumem características lineares, com diversas aplicações no controlo de gestão, envolvendo normalmente problemas de utilização dos recursos disponíveis sujeitos a limitações impostas pelo processo produtivo ou pelo mercado. O objectivo geral deste trabalho é o de propor um modelo de Programação Linear para a programação ou produção e alocação de recursos necessários. Optimizar uma quantidade física designada função objectivo, tendo em conta um conjunto de condicionalismos endógenas às actividades em gestão. O objectivo crucial é dispor um modelo de apoio à gestão contribuindo assim para afectação eficiente de recursos escassos à disposição da unidade económica. Com o trabalho desenvolvido ficou patente a importância da abordagem quantitativa como recurso imprescindível de apoio ao processo de decisão. The operational research has proven to be a valuable management tool today we live in an increasingly competitive market. Through Linear Programming can be mathematically reproduce a problem of maximizing performance or minimizing production costs in order to assist managers in decision making. The Linear Programming is a mathematical method in which the objective function and constraints are linear features, with several applications in the control of management, usually involving problems of resource use are available subject to limitations imposed by the production process or the market. The overall objective of this work is to propose a Linear Programming model for scheduling or production and allocation of necessary resources. Optimizing a physical quantity called the objective function, given a set of endogenous constraints on management thus contributing to efficient allocation of scarce resources available to the economic unit. With the work has demonstrated the importance of the quantitative approach as essential resource to support the decision process.

Using spatially distributed parameters and multi-response objective functions to solve parameterization of complex applications of semi-distributed hydrological models

Application of semi-distributed hydrological models to large, heterogeneous watersheds deals with several problems. On one hand, the spatial and temporal variability in catchment features should be adequately represented in the model parameterization, while maintaining the model complexity in an acceptable level to take advantage of state-of-the-art calibration techniques. On the other hand, model complexity enhances uncertainty in adjusted model parameter values, therefore increasing uncertainty in the water routing across the watershed. This is critical for water quality applications, where not only streamflow, but also a reliable estimation of the surface versus subsurface contributions to the runoff is needed. In this study, we show how a regularized inversion procedure combined with a multiobjective function calibration strategy successfully solves the parameterization of a complex application of a water quality-oriented hydrological model. The final value of several optimized parameters showed significant and consistentdifferences across geological and landscape features. Although the number of optimized parameters was significantly increased by the spatial and temporal discretization of adjustable parameters, the uncertainty in water routing results remained at reasonable values. In addition, a stepwise numerical analysis showed that the effects on calibration performance due to inclusion of different data types in the objective function could be inextricably linked. Thus caution should be taken when adding or removing data from an aggregated objective function.

Efficient estimation using the characteristic function : theory and applications with high frequency data

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Design, implementation and application of a generic framework for integrated regional land-use modeling

Land use is a crucial link between human activities and the natural environment and one of the main driving forces of global environmental change. Large parts of the terrestrial land surface are used for agriculture, forestry, settlements and infrastructure. Given the importance of land use, it is essential to understand the multitude of influential factors and resulting land use patterns. An essential methodology to study and quantify such interactions is provided by the adoption of land-use models. By the application of land-use models, it is possible to analyze the complex structure of linkages and feedbacks and to also determine the relevance of driving forces. Modeling land use and land use changes has a long-term tradition. In particular on the regional scale, a variety of models for different regions and research questions has been created. Modeling capabilities grow with steady advances in computer technology, which on the one hand are driven by increasing computing power on the other hand by new methods in software development, e.g. object- and component-oriented architectures. In this thesis, SITE (Simulation of Terrestrial Environments), a novel framework for integrated regional sland-use modeling, will be introduced and discussed. Particular features of SITE are the notably extended capability to integrate models and the strict separation of application and implementation. These features enable efficient development, test and usage of integrated land-use models. On its system side, SITE provides generic data structures (grid, grid cells, attributes etc.) and takes over the responsibility for their administration. By means of a scripting language (Python) that has been extended by language features specific for land-use modeling, these data structures can be utilized and manipulated by modeling applications. The scripting language interpreter is embedded in SITE. The integration of sub models can be achieved via the scripting language or by usage of a generic interface provided by SITE. Furthermore, functionalities important for land-use modeling like model calibration, model tests and analysis support of simulation results have been integrated into the generic framework. During the implementation of SITE, specific emphasis was laid on expandability, maintainability and usability. Along with the modeling framework a land use model for the analysis of the stability of tropical rainforest margins was developed in the context of the collaborative research project STORMA (SFB 552). In a research area in Central Sulawesi, Indonesia, socio-environmental impacts of land-use changes were examined. SITE was used to simulate land-use dynamics in the historical period of 1981 to 2002. Analogous to that, a scenario that did not consider migration in the population dynamics, was analyzed. For the calculation of crop yields and trace gas emissions, the DAYCENT agro-ecosystem model was integrated. In this case study, it could be shown that land-use changes in the Indonesian research area could mainly be characterized by the expansion of agricultural areas at the expense of natural forest. For this reason, the situation had to be interpreted as unsustainable even though increased agricultural use implied economic improvements and higher farmers' incomes. Due to the importance of model calibration, it was explicitly addressed in the SITE architecture through the introduction of a specific component. The calibration functionality can be used by all SITE applications and enables largely automated model calibration. Calibration in SITE is understood as a process that finds an optimal or at least adequate solution for a set of arbitrarily selectable model parameters with respect to an objective function. In SITE, an objective function typically is a map comparison algorithm capable of comparing a simulation result to a reference map. Several map optimization and map comparison methodologies are available and can be combined. The STORMA land-use model was calibrated using a genetic algorithm for optimization and the figure of merit map comparison measure as objective function. The time period for the calibration ranged from 1981 to 2002. For this period, respective reference land-use maps were compiled. It could be shown, that an efficient automated model calibration with SITE is possible. Nevertheless, the selection of the calibration parameters required detailed knowledge about the underlying land-use model and cannot be automated. In another case study decreases in crop yields and resulting losses in income from coffee cultivation were analyzed and quantified under the assumption of four different deforestation scenarios. For this task, an empirical model, describing the dependence of bee pollination and resulting coffee fruit set from the distance to the closest natural forest, was integrated. Land-use simulations showed, that depending on the magnitude and location of ongoing forest conversion, pollination services are expected to decline continuously. This results in a reduction of coffee yields of up to 18% and a loss of net revenues per hectare of up to 14%. However, the study also showed that ecological and economic values can be preserved if patches of natural vegetation are conservated in the agricultural landscape. -----------------------------------------------------------------------

Multi-objective optimization scheme for static and dynamic multicast flows

Muchas de las nuevas aplicaciones emergentes de Internet tales como TV sobre Internet, Radio sobre Internet,Video Streamming multi-punto, entre otras, necesitan los siguientes requerimientos de recursos: ancho de banda consumido, retardo extremo-a-extremo, tasa de paquetes perdidos, etc. Por lo anterior, es necesario formular una propuesta que especifique y provea para este tipo de aplicaciones los recursos necesarios para su buen funcionamiento. En esta tesis, proponemos un esquema de ingeniería de tráfico multi-objetivo a través del uso de diferentes árboles de distribución para muchos flujos multicast. En este caso, estamos usando la aproximación de múltiples caminos para cada nodo egreso y de esta forma obtener la aproximación de múltiples árboles y a través de esta forma crear diferentes árboles multicast. Sin embargo, nuestra propuesta resuelve la fracción de la división del tráfico a través de múltiples árboles. La propuesta puede ser aplicada en redes MPLS estableciendo rutas explícitas en eventos multicast. En primera instancia, el objetivo es combinar los siguientes objetivos ponderados dentro de una métrica agregada: máxima utilización de los enlaces, cantidad de saltos, el ancho de banda total consumido y el retardo total extremo-a-extremo. Nosotros hemos formulado esta función multi-objetivo (modelo MHDB-S) y los resultados obtenidos muestran que varios objetivos ponderados son reducidos y la máxima utilización de los enlaces es minimizada. El problema es NP-duro, por lo tanto, un algoritmo es propuesto para optimizar los diferentes objetivos. El comportamiento que obtuvimos usando este algoritmo es similar al que obtuvimos con el modelo. Normalmente, durante la transmisión multicast los nodos egresos pueden salir o entrar del árbol y por esta razón en esta tesis proponemos un esquema de ingeniería de tráfico multi-objetivo usando diferentes árboles para grupos multicast dinámicos. (en el cual los nodos egresos pueden cambiar durante el tiempo de vida de la conexión). Si un árbol multicast es recomputado desde el principio, esto podría consumir un tiempo considerable de CPU y además todas las comuicaciones que están usando el árbol multicast serán temporalmente interrumpida. Para aliviar estos inconvenientes, proponemos un modelo de optimización (modelo dinámico MHDB-D) que utilice los árboles multicast previamente computados (modelo estático MHDB-S) adicionando nuevos nodos egreso. Usando el método de la suma ponderada para resolver el modelo analítico, no necesariamente es correcto, porque es posible tener un espacio de solución no convexo y por esta razón algunas soluciones pueden no ser encontradas. Adicionalmente, otros tipos de objetivos fueron encontrados en diferentes trabajos de investigación. Por las razones mencionadas anteriormente, un nuevo modelo llamado GMM es propuesto y para dar solución a este problema un nuevo algoritmo usando Algoritmos Evolutivos Multi-Objetivos es propuesto. Este algoritmo esta inspirado por el algoritmo Strength Pareto Evolutionary Algorithm (SPEA). Para dar una solución al caso dinámico con este modelo generalizado, nosotros hemos propuesto un nuevo modelo dinámico y una solución computacional usando Breadth First Search (BFS) probabilístico. Finalmente, para evaluar nuestro esquema de optimización propuesto, ejecutamos diferentes pruebas y simulaciones. Las principales contribuciones de esta tesis son la taxonomía, los modelos de optimización multi-objetivo para los casos estático y dinámico en transmisiones multicast (MHDB-S y MHDB-D), los algoritmos para dar solución computacional a los modelos. Finalmente, los modelos generalizados también para los casos estático y dinámico (GMM y GMM Dinámico) y las propuestas computacionales para dar slución usando MOEA y BFS probabilístico.

An empirical test of the gravity p-median model

A customer is presumed to gravitate to a facility by the distance to it and the attractiveness of it. However regarding the location of the facility, the presumption is that the customer opts for the shortest route to the nearest facility.This paradox was recently solved by the introduction of the gravity p-median model. The model is yet to be implemented and tested empirically. We implemented the model in an empirical problem of locating locksmiths, vehicle inspections, and retail stores ofv ehicle spare-parts, and we compared the solutions with those of the p-median model. We found the gravity p-median model to be of limited use for the problem of locating facilities as it either gives solutions similar to the p-median model, or it gives unstable solutions due to a non-concave objective function.