Provision of an airborne early warning system for Pakistan [microform] : hearings before the Subcommittee on Asian and Pacific Affairs of the Committee on Foreign Affairs, House of Representatives, One Hundredth Congress, first session, May 21 and June 11, 1987.

CIS Microfiche Accession Numbers: CIS 89 H381-7

Reflections on the development and implementation of an early warning system for ecstasy and related drug markets in Australia

Regular and systematic monitoring of drug markets provides the basis for evidence-based policy. In Australia, trends in ecstasy and related drug (ERD) markets have been monitored in selected jurisdictions since 2000 and nationally since 2003, by the Party Drugs Initiative (PDI). The PDI maximises the validity of conclusions by triangulating information from (a) interviews with regular ecstasy users (REU), (b) interviews with key experts and (c) indicator data. There is currently no other system in Australia for monitoring these markets systematically; however, the value of the PDI has been constrained by the quality of available data. Difficulties in recruiting and interviewing appropriate consumers (REU) and key experts have been experienced, but largely overcome. Limitations of available indicator data from both health and law enforcement continue to present challenges and there remains considerable scope for enhancing existing routine data collection systems, to facilitate monitoring of ERD markets. With an expanding market for ecstasy and related drugs in Australia, and in the context of indicator data that continue to be limited in scope and detail, there is a strong argument for the continued collection of annual, comparable data from a sentinel group of REU, such as those recruited for the PDI.

Parents’ Preparedness for Their Infants’ Discharge Following First-stage Cardiac Surgery: Development of a Parental Early Warning Tool

Aim The aim of this study was to explore parental preparedness for discharge and their experiences of going home with their infant after the first-stage surgery for a functionally univentricular heart. Background Technological advances worldwide have improved outcomes for infants with a functionally univentricular heart over the last 3 decades; however, concern remains regarding mortality in the period between the first and second stages of surgery. The implementation of home monitoring programmes for this group of infants has improved this initial inter-stage survival; however, little is known about parents’ experiences of going home, their preparedness for discharge, and parents’ recognition of deterioration in their fragile infant. Method This study was conducted in 2011–2013; eight sets of parents were consulted in the research planning stage in September, 2011, and 22 parents with children aged 0–2 years responded to an online survey during November, 2012–March, 2013. Description of categorical data and deductive thematic analysis of the open-ended questions were undertaken. Results Not all parents were taught signs of deterioration or given written information specific to their baby. The following three themes emerged from the qualitative data: mixed emotions about going home, knowledge and preparedness, and support systems. Conclusions Parents are not adequately prepared for discharge and are not well equipped to recognise deterioration in their child. There is a role for greater parental education through development of an early warning tool to address the gap in parents’ understanding of signs of deterioration, enabling appropriate contact and earlier management by clinicians.

"Last-Mile" preparation for a potential disaster - Interdisciplinary approach towards tsunami early warning and an evacuation information system for the coastal city of Padang, Indonesia

Extreme natural events, like e.g. tsunamis or earthquakes, regularly lead to catastrophes with dramatic consequences. In recent years natural disasters caused hundreds of thousands of deaths, destruction of infrastructure, disruption of economic activity and loss of billions of dollars worth of property and thus revealed considerable deficits hindering their effective management: Needs for stakeholders, decision-makers as well as for persons concerned include systematic risk identification and evaluation, a way to assess countermeasures, awareness raising and decision support systems to be employed before, during and after crisis situations. The overall goal of this study focuses on interdisciplinary integration of various scientific disciplines to contribute to a tsunami early warning information system. In comparison to most studies our focus is on high-end geometric and thematic analysis to meet the requirements of smallscale, heterogeneous and complex coastal urban systems. Data, methods and results from engineering, remote sensing and social sciences are interlinked and provide comprehensive information for disaster risk assessment, management and reduction. In detail, we combine inundation modeling, urban morphology analysis, population assessment, socioeconomic analysis of the population and evacuation modeling. The interdisciplinary results eventually lead to recommendations for mitigation strategies in the fields of spatial planning or coping capacity. © Author(s) 2009.

The development of an early warning system to detect trends in illicit drug use in Australia: The illicit drug reporting-system

Appropriate ways to monitor the availability and use of illicit drugs were examined. Four methods were tested concurrently: (1) a quantitative survey of injecting drug users, (2) a qualitative key informant study of illicit drug users and professionals working in the drug field, (3) examination of existing sources of survey, health and law enforcement data and (4) an ethnographic study of a high risk group of illicit drug users. The first three methods were recommended for inclusion in an ongoing national monitoring system, enabling the collection of both quantitative and qualitative data on a range of illicit drugs in a relatively brief, quick and cost-effective manner. A degree of convergent validity was also noted among these methods, improving the degree of confidence in drug trends. The importance of injecting drug users as a sentinel population of illicit drug users was highlighted, along with optimal methods for qualitative research.

Predictors of local malaria outbreaks: an approach to the development of an early warning system in Colombia

Risk factor surveillance is a complementary tool of morbidity and mortality surveillance that improves the likelihood that public health interventions are implemented in a timely fashion. The aim of this study was to identify population predictors of malaria outbreaks in endemic municipalities of Colombia with the goal of developing an early warning system for malaria outbreaks. We conducted a multiple-group, exploratory, ecological study at the municipal level. Each of the 290 municipalities with endemic malaria that we studied was classified according to the presence or absence of outbreaks. The measurement of variables was based on historic registries and logistic regression was performed to analyse the data. Altitude above sea level [odds ratio (OR) 3.65, 95% confidence interval (CI) 1.34-9.98], variability in rainfall (OR 1.85, 95% CI 1.40-2.44) and the proportion of inhabitants over 45 years of age (OR 0.17, 95% CI 0.08-0.38) were factors associated with malaria outbreaks in Colombian municipalities. The results suggest that environmental and demographic factors could have a significant ability to predict malaria outbreaks on the municipal level in Colombia. To advance the development of an early warning system, it will be necessary to adjust and standardise the collection of required data and to evaluate the accuracy of the forecast models.

Warning systems in a computerized nursing process for Intensive Care Units

A hybrid study combining technological production and methodological research aiming to establish associations between the data and information that are part of a Computerized Nursing Process according to the ICNP® Version 1.0, indicators of patient safety and quality of care. Based on the guidelines of the Agency for Healthcare Research and Quality and the American Association of Critical Care Nurses for the expansion of warning systems, five warning systems were developed: potential for iatrogenic pneumothorax, potential for care-related infections, potential for suture dehiscence in patients after abdominal or pelvic surgery, potential for loss of vascular access, and potential for endotracheal extubation. The warning systems are a continuous computerized resource of essential situations that promote patient safety and enable the construction of a way to stimulate clinical reasoning and support clinical decision making of nurses in intensive care.

The scrutiny of the principle of subsidiarity by autonomous regional parliaments with particular reference to the participation of the Parliament of Catalonia in the early warning system

The purpose of this article is to offer a practical approach to the new European dimension for regional parliaments signified by the entry into force of the Treaty of Lisbon. The parliamentary scrutiny of subsidiarity by way of the early warning system has assigned a new mission to legislative assemblies with the aim of reinforcing the intervention of regions in the drafting of policies by Union institutions. In the Spanish case, the institutionalisation of this mechanism came about with Act nº 24/2009, which attributes to the Joint Committee for the European Union, in the name of the Cortes Generales [the Spanish Parliament], the function of receiving the proposals for legislative acts by the EU and transferring them to the regional parliaments in order for the latter to issue, in a brief period of four weeks, a report on compliance with the principle of subsidiarity. The majority of regional parliaments have also carried out normative reforms to regulate the procedure of participation in the early warning system.

Development of a warning system for wheat blast caused by Pyricularia grisea

Wheat (Triticum aestivum L.) blast caused by Pyricularia grisea is a new disease in Brazil and no resistant cultivars are available. The interactions between temperature and wetness durations have been used in many early warning systems. Hence, growth chamber experiments to assess the effect of different temperatures (10, 15, 20, 25, 30 and 35ºC) and the duration of spike-wetness (0, 5, 10, 15, 20, 25, 30, 35 and 40 hours) on the intensity of blast in cultivar BR23 were carried out. Each temperature formed an experiment and the duration of wetness the treatments. The highest blast intensity was observed at 30°C and increased as the duration of the wetting period increased while the lowest occurred at 25°C and 10 hours of spike wetness. Regardless of the temperature, no symptoms occurred when the wetting period was less than 10 hours but at 25°C and a 40 h wetting period blast intensity exceeded 85%. These variations in blast intensity as a function of temperature are explained by a generalized beta model and as a function of the duration of spike wetness by the Gompertz model. Disease intensity was modeled as a function of both temperature and the durations of spike wetness and the resulting equation provided a precise description of the response of P. grisea to temperatures and the durations of spike wetness. This model was used to construct tables that can be used to predict the intensity of P. grisea wheat blast based on the temperatures and the durations of wheat spike wetness obtained in the field.

Weather based warning systems for bean angular-leaf-spot and anthracnose

Data available in the literature were used to develop a warning system for bean angular leaf spot and anthracnose, caused by Phaeoisariopsis griseola and Colletotrichum lindemuthianum, respectively. The model is based on favorable environmental conditions for the infectious process such as continuous leaf wetness duration and mean air temperature during this subphase of the pathogen-host relationship cycle. Equations published by DALLA PRIA (1977) showing the interactions of those two factors on the disease severity were used. Excell spreadsheet was used to calculate the leaf wetness period needed to cause different infection probabilities at different temperature ranges. These data were employed to elaborate critical period tables used to program a computerized electronic device that records leaf wetness duration and mean temperature and automatically shows the daily disease severity value (DDSV) for each disease. The model should be validated in field experiments under natural infection for which the daily disease severity sum (DDSS) should be identified as a criterion to indicate the beginning and the interval of fungicide applications to control both diseases.

Could the Asian Crisis Have Been More Accurately Predicted? Improving and Early Warning System Model.

Rapport de recherche

A predictive model for early-warning of Septoria leaf blotch on winter wheat

Disease-weather relationships influencing Septoria leaf blotch (SLB) preceding growth stage (GS) 31 were identified using data from 12 sites in the UK covering 8 years. Based on these relationships, an early-warning predictive model for SLB on winter wheat was formulated to predict the occurrence of a damaging epidemic (defined as disease severity of 5% or > 5% on the top three leaf layers). The final model was based on accumulated rain > 3 mm in the 80-day period preceding GS 31 (roughly from early-February to the end of April) and accumulated minimum temperature with a 0A degrees C base in the 50-day period starting from 120 days preceding GS 31 (approximately January and February). The model was validated on an independent data set on which the prediction accuracy was influenced by cultivar resistance. Over all observations, the model had a true positive proportion of 0.61, a true negative proportion of 0.73, a sensitivity of 0.83, and a specificity of 0.18. True negative proportion increased to 0.85 for resistant cultivars and decreased to 0.50 for susceptible cultivars. Potential fungicide savings are most likely to be made with resistant cultivars, but such benefits would need to be identified with an in-depth evaluation.

Early warning with calibrated and sharper probabilistic forecasts

Given a nonlinear model, a probabilistic forecast may be obtained by Monte Carlo simulations. At a given forecast horizon, Monte Carlo simulations yield sets of discrete forecasts, which can be converted to density forecasts. The resulting density forecasts will inevitably be downgraded by model mis-specification. In order to enhance the quality of the density forecasts, one can mix them with the unconditional density. This paper examines the value of combining conditional density forecasts with the unconditional density. The findings have positive implications for issuing early warnings in different disciplines including economics and meteorology, but UK inflation forecasts are considered as an example.

Statistical monitoring of student performance: an early warning system

Weekly monitoring of profiles of student performances on formative and summative coursework throughout the year can be used to quickly identify those who need additional help, possibly due to acute and sudden-onset problems. Such an early-warning system can help retention, but also assist students in overcoming problems early on, thus helping them fulfil their potential in the long run. We have developed a simple approach for the automatic monitoring of student mark profiles for individual modules, which we intend to trial in the near future. Its ease of implementation means that it can be used for very large cohorts with little additional effort when marks are already collected and recorded on a spreadsheet.