Hierarchical Bayesian modelling of early detection surveillance for plant pest invasions

Early detection surveillance programs aim to find invasions of exotic plant pests and diseases before they are too widespread to eradicate. However, the value of these programs can be difficult to justify when no positive detections are made. To demonstrate the value of pest absence information provided by these programs, we use a hierarchical Bayesian framework to model estimates of incursion extent with and without surveillance. A model for the latent invasion process provides the baseline against which surveillance data are assessed. Ecological knowledge and pest management criteria are introduced into the model using informative priors for invasion parameters. Observation models assimilate information from spatio-temporal presence/absence data to accommodate imperfect detection and generate posterior estimates of pest extent. When applied to an early detection program operating in Queensland, Australia, the framework demonstrates that this typical surveillance regime provides a modest reduction in the estimate that a surveyed district is infested. More importantly, the model suggests that early detection surveillance programs can provide a dramatic reduction in the putative area of incursion and therefore offer a substantial benefit to incursion management. By mapping spatial estimates of the point probability of infestation, the model identifies where future surveillance resources can be most effectively deployed.

A Proof of Convergence of the B-RED and P-RED Algorithms for Random Early Detection

In [8], we recently presented two computationally efficient algorithms named B-RED and P-RED for random early detection. In this letter, we present the mathematical proof of convergence of these algorithms under general conditions to local minima.

Performance analysis of the random early detection algorithm

In this article we consider a finite queue with its arrivals controlled by the random early detection algorithm. This is one of the most prominent congestion avoidance schemes in the Internet routers. The aggregate arrival stream from the population of transmission control protocol sources is locally considered stationary renewal or Markov modulated Poisson process with general packet length distribution. We study the exact dynamics of this queue and provide the stability and the rates of convergence to the stationary distribution and obtain the packet loss probability and the waiting time distribution. Then we extend these results to a two traffic class case with each arrival stream renewal. However, computing the performance indices for this system becomes computationally prohibitive. Thus, in the latter half of the article, we approximate the dynamics of the average queue length process asymptotically via an ordinary differential equation. We estimate the error term via a diffusion approximation. We use these results to obtain approximate transient and stationary performance of the system. Finally, we provide some computational examples to show the accuracy of these approximations.

The Early Detection of Motion Boundaries

This thesis shows how to detect boundaries on the basis of motion information alone. The detection is performed in two stages: (i) the local estimation of motion discontinuities and of the visual flowsfield; (ii) the extraction of complete boundaries belonging to differently moving objects. For the first stage, three new methods are presented: the "Bimodality Tests,'' the "Bi-distribution Test,'' and the "Dynamic Occlusion Method.'' The second stage consists of applying the "Structural Saliency Method,'' by Sha'ashua and Ullman to extract complete and unique boundaries from the output of the first stage. The developed methods can successfully segment complex motion sequences.

Development of a planar waveguide microarray for the monitoring and early detection of five harmful algal toxins in water and cultures

A novel multiplex microarray has been developed for the detection of five groups of harmful algal and cyanobacterial toxins found in marine, brackish, and freshwater environments including domoic acid (DA), okadaic acid (OA, and analogues), saxitoxin (STX, and analogues), cylindrospermopsin (CYN) and microcystins (MC, and analogues). The sensitivity and specificity were determined and feasibility to be used as a screening tool investigated. Results for algal/cyanobacterial cultures (n = 12) and seawater samples (n = 33) were compared to conventional analytical methods, such as high performance liquid chromatography (HPLC) and liquid chromatography tandem mass spectrometry (LC-MS/MS). Detection limits for the 15 min assay were 0.37, 0.44, 0.05, 0.08, and 0.40 ng/mL for DA, OA, STX, CYN, and MC, respectively. The correlation of data obtained from the microarray compared to conventional analysis for the 12 cultures was r(2) = 0.83. Analysis of seawater samples showed that 82, 82, 70, 82, and 12% of samples were positive (>IC20) compared to 67, 55, 36, 0, and 0% for DA, OA, STX, CYN, and MC, respectively, for conventional analytical methods. The discrepancies in results can be attributed to the enhanced sensitivity and cross-reactivity profiles of the antibodies in the MBio microarray. The feasibility of the microarray as a rapid, easy to use, and highly sensitive screening tool has been illustrated for the five-plex detection of biotoxins. The research demonstrates an early warning screening assay to support national monitoring agencies by providing a faster and more accurate means of identifying and quantifying harmful toxins in water samples.

Early detection of leukaemic relapse after bone marrow transplantation using the polymerase chain reaction

We report a case of acute lymphoblastic leukaemia relapsing after allogeneic bone marrow transplantation in which the polymerase chain reaction (PCR) was used to assess chimeric status. This technique demonstrated the progressive reappearance of host cells prior to clinical relapse. The relapse was of host cell origin as shown by the presence of female (recipient) metaphases containing an abnormal chromosomal marker (iso 9q) which had also been present at initial diagnosis. The emergence of host cells in this case, detected only by PCR techniques but not by cytogenetic methods, appeared to herald overt relapse. PCR analysis provides a sensitive tool for detecting a progressive rise in host cell numbers which may predict clinical relapse.

A novel gene expression signature in peripheral blood mononuclear cells for early detection of colorectal cancer.

BACKGROUND: Early detection and treatment of colorectal adenomatous polyps (AP) and colorectal cancer (CRC) is associated with decreased mortality for CRC. However, accurate, non-invasive and compliant tests to screen for AP and early stages of CRC are not yet available. A blood-based screening test is highly attractive due to limited invasiveness and high acceptance rate among patients. AIM: To demonstrate whether gene expression signatures in the peripheral blood mononuclear cells (PBMC) were able to detect the presence of AP and early stages CRC. METHODS: A total of 85 PBMC samples derived from colonoscopy-verified subjects without lesion (controls) (n = 41), with AP (n = 21) or with CRC (n = 23) were used as training sets. A 42-gene panel for CRC and AP discrimination, including genes identified by Digital Gene Expression-tag profiling of PBMC, and genes previously characterised and reported in the literature, was validated on the training set by qPCR. Logistic regression analysis followed by bootstrap validation determined CRC- and AP-specific classifiers, which discriminate patients with CRC and AP from controls. RESULTS: The CRC and AP classifiers were able to detect CRC with a sensitivity of 78% and AP with a sensitivity of 46% respectively. Both classifiers had a specificity of 92% with very low false-positive detection when applied on subjects with inflammatory bowel disease (n = 23) or tumours other than CRC (n = 14). CONCLUSION: This pilot study demonstrates the potential of developing a minimally invasive, accurate test to screen patients at average risk for colorectal cancer, based on gene expression analysis of peripheral blood mononuclear cells obtained from a simple blood sample.

Early detection and intervention for infants at risk of autism spectrum disorders

Autism is a developmental disorder that is characterized by abnonnal social interactions and communications as well as repetitive and restricted activities and interests. There is evidence of a genetic component, as 5% of younger siblings are diagnosed if their older sibling has been diagnosed. Autism is generally not diagnosed until age 3 at the earliest, yet it has been shown that early intervention for children with autism can greatly increase their functioning. Because of this, it is important that symptoms of autism are identified as early as possible so that diagnosis can occur as soon as possible to allow these children the earliest intervention. This thesis was divided into two parts. The first looked at the psychometrics of two proposed measures, the Parent Observation Checklist (POC), administered monthly, and the Infant Behavior Summary Evaluation (mSE), administered bimonthly, to see if they can be used with the infant population to identify autistic symptoms in infants who are at high risk for autism or related problems because they have an older sibling with autism. Study 1 reported acceptable psychometric properties of both the POC and IBSE in terms of test-retest reliability, internal consistency, construct validity and predictive validity. These results provide preliminary evidence that parent report measures can help to detect early symptoms of ASD in infants. The POC was shown to differentiate infants who were diagnosed from a matched group that was not diagnosed by 3 years of age. The second part of this thesis involved a telephone interview of parents who reported developmental and/or behavior problems in their high-risk infants that may be early signs of Autism Spectrum Disorder (ASD). During the interview, a service questionnaire was administered to see what interventions (including strategies recommended by the researchers) their at risk infants and affected older siblings were receiving, how satisfied the parents were with them and how effective they felt the interventions were. 3 Study 2 also yielded promising results. Parents utilized a variety of services for at risk infants and children with ASD. The interventions included empirically validated early intervention (e.g., ABA) to non-empirically validated treatments (e.g., diet therapy). The large number of nonempirically validated treatments parents used was surprising, yet parents reported being involved and satisfied, and thought that the services were effective. Parents' perceptions of their stress levels went down slightly and feelings of competence rose when they accessed services for their infants. Overall, the results of this thesis provide new evidence that parent-report methods hold promise as early detection instruments for ASD in at-risk infants. More research is needed to further validate these instruments as well as to understand the variables related to the parents' choice of early intervention for their at risk and affected children.

Evaluation and early detection of problematic Internet use in adolescents

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