Dynamics of flow: a nonlinear perspective

The aims of this study are to consider the experience of flow from a nonlinear dynamics perspective. The processes and temporal nature of intrinsic motivation and flow, would suggest that flow experiences fluctuate over time in a dynamical fashion. Thus it can be argued that the potential for chaos is strong. The sample was composed of 20 employees (both full and part time) recruited from a number of different organizations and work backgrounds. The Experience Sampling Method (ESM) was used for data collection. Once obtained the temporal series, they were subjected to various analyses proper to the com- plexity theory (Visual Recurrence Analysis and Surrogate Data Analysis). Results showed that in 80% of the cases, flow presented a chaotic dynamic, in that, flow experiences delineated a complex dynamic whose patterns of change were not easy to predict. Implications of the study, its limitations and future research are discussed.

Potencial de controle da erva-de-Santa-Maria sobre Pratylenchus brachyurus

O emprego de plantas antogônicas tem sido uma alternativa no controle de fitonematóides. O efeito da erva-de-Santa-Maria (ESM) sobre a população de Pratylenchus brachyurus foi avaliado em teste in vitro e em dois experimentos em condições de casa de vegetação. No teste in vitro, utilizou-se extrato de ESM em quatro concentrações (20; 2; 0,2 e 0,02%), em suspensões contendo 500 exemplares de P. brachyurus. Após 48 h, os nematóides vivos foram coletados e contados. Verificou-se que a ESM possui ação nematicida, sendo observada maior mortalidade de juvenis de P. brachyurus quando comparada com o controle químico (aldicarb). Nos experimentos em casa de vegetação, plantas de ESM e soja foram inoculadas com 1.500 e 5.000 nematóides, respectivamente, e, após 45 dias, a parte aérea (PA) foi incorporada ao solo, seguindo-se os seguintes tratamentos: incorporação da PA da ESM; incorporação da PA da soja; e sem incorporação da PA. Após um mês, cada vaso recebeu uma planta de soja, para atuar como indicador biológico de parasitismo. Após 45 dias, avaliou-se a população final do nematóide presente nas raízes de soja e no solo e as massas seca da PA e fresca de raízes da soja. Houve redução da população do nematóide nos tratamentos com ESM, mas foi observada fitotoxidez em plantas de soja.

Efeito da concentração de coagulantes e do pH da solução na turbidez da água, em recirculação, utilizada no processamento dos frutos do cafeeiro

Com o objetivo de determinar a dose e a faixa de pH dos coagulantes sulfato de alumínio (SA), sulfato ferroso clorado (SFC), cloreto férrico (CF) e extrato de semente de moringa (ESM), que proporcionassem maior eficiência na remoção da turbidez na água residuária da despolpa de frutos do cafeeiro (ARDC), após serem efetuadas cinco recirculações, foram conduzidos ensaios de coagulação/floculação utilizando o aparelho "Jar-test". Todos esses coagulantes foram avaliados nas concentrações de 0; 0,5; 1,0; 1,5; 2,0; 2,5 e 3,0 g L-1. No caso da solução preparada com ESM, as doses utilizadas foram: 0; 10; 20; 30; 40; 50 e 60 mL L-1. O pH da solução em teste foi alterado, utilizando-se do hidróxido de sódio (NaOH), na concentração de 0,3 mol L-1, sendo avaliadas as faixas de 4,0 a 5,0; 5,0 a 6,0; 6,0 a 7,0 e 7,0 a 8,0. No ensaio de coagulação/floculação, o ESM proporcionou maior remoção de SS (sólidos em suspensão) da ARDC com a dose de 10 mL L-1 e pH de 4,27 (natural). Para os coagulantes SA e CF, os melhores resultados foram obtidos com a concentração de 3 g L-1 e pH de 7,27 e, para o coagulante SFC, com a concentração de 3 g L-1 e pH de 4,27.

Pinta-aluksen kyky havaita kohti ammuttu meritorjuntaohjus

Tutkimus on luonteeltaan teoreettinen ja se tuottaa suuntaa antavat arvot pinta-aluksen kyvylle havaita kohti ammuttu meritorjuntaohjus aluksen S -alueen valvontatutkalla sekä kohti ammutun meritorjuntaohjuksen Ku -alueen hakeutumistutka aluksen ESM –järjestelmällä. Tutkimusongelmien perusteella on laadittu kirjallisuusselvitys, jossa on määritetty pintaaluksen, sen sensoreiden sekä meritorjuntaohjuksen ja sen hakeutumistutkan geneeriset ominaisuudet. Sen jälkeen on skenaarioanalyysin avulla määritetty tutkittavat skenaariot ja niiden matemaattinen arviointitapa. Matemaattisessa arvioinnissa on käytetty kirjallisuusselvityksen avulla saatuja laskenta-arvoja järjestelmien parametreille ja skenaarioiden muuttujille. Tutkimus on pidetty tietoturvaluokitukseltaan julkisena käyttämällä arvioinnissa geneerisiä arvoja. Kohti ammutun meritorjuntaohjuksen havaitseminen riippuu ensisijaisesti ohjuksen lentokorkeudesta ja ajankohdasta, jolloin se käynnistää hakeutumistutkansa maalin etsintää ja siihen lukittumista varten. Ohjus lähestyy maalia matalalla lentäen, jolloin se ei ole havaittavissa pinta-aluksen valvontatutkalla. Matkalentovaiheen aikana ohjuksen hakeutumistutka on sammutettu eikä sitä kyetä havaitsemaan. Ohjus nousee 30 - 40 kilometrin etäisyydellä maalista tutkahorisontin yläpuolelle, jolloin se on havaittavissa pinta-aluksen valvontatutkalla. Samalla ohjus käynnistää hakeutumistutkansa, joka puolestaan havaitaan aluksen ESM – järjestelmällä. Aliääniohjukset voivat suorittaa maalihaun ja lukituksen jopa 20 kilometrin päässä maalista. Lukituttuaan maaliin, laskeutuu ohjus noin viiden metrin lentokorkeuteen ja etenee kohti maalia pysyen pääosin pinta-aluksen valvontatutkan ja ESM –järjestelmän seurannassa. Pinta-alus kykenee havaitsemaan kohti ammutun meritorjuntaohjuksen viimeistään ohjuksen kasvattaessa lentokorkeuttaan maalin etsintää ja siihen lukitusta varten noin 35 kilometrin etäisyydellä pinta-aluksesta. Tämän jälkeen ohjusta kyetään seuraamaan aluksen valvontatutkalla osumishetkeen asti. ESM –järjestelmä kykenee seuraamaan ohjusta vain ohjuksen hakeutumistutkan ollessa käynnissä. Havainto kohti ammutusta meritorjuntaohjuksesta tehdään liki samanaikaisesti pinta-aluksen valvontatutkalla ja ESM –järjestelmällä. Sensorien integrointiasteesta ja maalifuusion tasosta riippuu, miten nopeasti valvontatutkan havaitsemaan maaliin kyetään yhdistämään ESM - järjestelmän tekemä tunnistus uhkasignaalista ja edelleen aloittamaan ohjuksen torjunta aluksen ase- ja omasuojajärjestelmillä. Kohti ammutun yliääniohjuksen (nopeus: 1 M) havaitsemisesta osumishetkeen kuluva aika on noin 2,1 minuuttia. Jos aliääniohjuksen nopeus on 800 km/h, on havainnosta osumishetkeen kuluva aika noin 2,6 minuuttia. Tässä ajassa havainto on kyettävä luokittelemaan, tunnistamaan ja käynnistämään vastatoimet. Pintaaluksen kannalta on tärkeää saada havainto kohti ammutusta ohjuksesta mahdollisimman nopeasti, jolloin torjunnan käynnistämiseen on enemmän aikaa. Hyökkääjän näkökulmasta on edullista tuoda meritorjuntaohjus tutkahorisontin alapuolella mahdollisimman lähelle maalia kuitenkin siten, että se vielä kykenee tutkahorisontin yläpuolelle noustuaan hakeutumistutkalla etsimään maalin ja lukittumaan siihen. Etäisyyden, jolta ohjus maalinsa hakee, on riippuvainen maalinvalintakriteerien onnistumisesta ja toisaalta ohjuksen lentonopeudesta, joka märittää miten paljon aikaa maalin etsintään ja hyökkäysvaiheeseen mahdollisine maalin vaihtoineen on käytettävissä.

Tilannekuvan muodostaminen seuraavan sukupolven hävittäjässä

Tutkielmassa on tarkasteltu tilannekuvan muodostamista 5. sukupolven hävittäjässä. Tarkastelu on tehty kirjallisuusselvityksenä, jota on tuettu analysoimalla ja laskemalla suorituskykyarvoja muutamissa esimerkkitilanteissa. Tarkastelussa on keskitytty radiotaajuisten sensoreiden ja lentokoneiden keskinäisen verkottamisen suomien mahdollisuuksien arviointiin. Käytettävissä oleva sensoritekniikka tulee parantumaan huomattavasti nykyisiin 4. sukupolven hävittäjiin verrattuna. Aktiivisen, elektronisesti keilaavan tutkan ohella koneissa tullee olemaan tutkavaroittimen rinnalla ESM-järjestelmä, joka on liki välttämätön modernien uhkasignaalien havaitsemiseksi riittävän etäältä. Verkottamalla hävittäjien ESM-järjestelmät keskenään, voidaan saavuttaa paikannustarkkuus, joka riittää ilmataisteluohjusten ja ilmasta/maahan-ohjusten laukaisuun. Tehokkaan verkottamisen mahdollistaa suurikapasiteettinen datalinkki, jonka havainnointi on äärimmäisen vaikeaa eikä se näin paljasta hävittäjää signaalillaan. Vaikka 5. sukupolven hävittäjästä puhuttaessa huomiota kiinnitetään ensisijaisesti sen häiveominaisuuksiin, tapahtuu myös tilannekuvaan vaikuttavissa järjestelmissä sellaista kehitystä, joka mahdollistaa täysin uusia toimintoja. Näin tulevaisuuden hävittäjäryhmä kykenee tarvittaessa tuottamaan tilannekuvan yksin, kun siihen aiemmin vaadittiin koko ilmapuolustusjärjestelmän tuki.

Développement et validation d’un outil clinique pour l’analyse quantitative de la posture auprès de personnes atteintes d’une scoliose idiopathique

La scoliose idiopathique (SI) est une déformation tridimensionnelle (3D) de la colonne vertébrale et de la cage thoracique à potentiel évolutif pendant la croissance. Cette déformation 3D entraîne des asymétries de la posture. La correction de la posture est un des objectifs du traitement en physiothérapie chez les jeunes atteints d’une SI afin d’éviter la progression de la scoliose, de réduire les déformations morphologiques et leurs impacts sur la qualité de vie. Les outils cliniques actuels ne permettent pas de quantifier globalement les changements de la posture attribuables à la progression de la scoliose ou à l’efficacité des interventions thérapeutiques. L’objectif de cette thèse consiste donc au développement et à la validation d’un nouvel outil clinique permettant l’analyse quantitative de la posture auprès de personnes atteintes d’une SI. Ce projet vise plus spécifiquement à déterminer la fidélité et la validité des indices de posture (IP) de ce nouvel outil clinique et à vérifier leur capacité à détecter des changements entre les positions debout et assise. Suite à une recension de la littérature, 34 IP représentant l’alignement frontal et sagittal des différents segments corporels ont été sélectionnés. L’outil quantitatif clinique d’évaluation de la posture (outil 2D) construit dans ce projet consiste en un logiciel qui permet de calculer les différents IP (mesures angulaires et linéaires). L’interface graphique de cet outil est conviviale et permet de sélectionner interactivement des marqueurs sur les photographies digitales. Afin de vérifier la fidélité et la validité des IP de cet outil, la posture debout de 70 participants âgés entre 10 et 20 ans atteints d'une SI (angle de Cobb: 15º à 60º) a été évaluée à deux occasions par deux physiothérapeutes. Des marqueurs placés sur plusieurs repères anatomiques, ainsi que des points de référence anatomique (yeux, lobes des oreilles, etc.), ont permis de mesurer les IP 2D en utilisant des photographies. Ces mêmes marqueurs et points de référence ont également servi au calcul d’IP 3D obtenus par des reconstructions du tronc avec un système de topographie de surface. Les angles de Cobb frontaux et sagittaux et le déjettement C7-S1 ont été mesurés sur des radiographies. La théorie de la généralisabilité a été utilisée pour déterminer la fidélité et l’erreur standard de la mesure (ESM) des IP de l’outil 2D. Des coefficients de Pearson ont servi à déterminer la validité concomitante des IP du tronc de l’outil 2D avec les IP 3D et les mesures radiographiques correspondantes. Cinquante participants ont été également évalués en position assise « membres inférieurs allongés » pour l’étude comparative de la posture debout et assise. Des tests de t pour échantillons appariés ont été utilisés pour détecter les différences entre les positions debout et assise. Nos résultats indiquent un bon niveau de fidélité pour la majorité des IP de l’outil 2D. La corrélation entre les IP 2D et 3D est bonne pour les épaules, les omoplates, le déjettement C7-S1, les angles de taille, la scoliose thoracique et le bassin. Elle est faible à modérée pour la cyphose thoracique, la lordose lombaire et la scoliose thoraco-lombaire ou lombaire. La corrélation entre les IP 2D et les mesures radiographiques est bonne pour le déjettement C7-S1, la scoliose et la cyphose thoracique. L’outil est suffisamment discriminant pour détecter des différences entre la posture debout et assise pour dix des treize IP. Certaines recommandations spécifiques résultents de ce projet : la hauteur de la caméra devrait être ajustée en fonction de la taille des personnes; la formation des juges est importante pour maximiser la précision de la pose des marqueurs; et des marqueurs montés sur des tiges devraient faciliter l’évaluation des courbures vertébrales sagittales. En conclusion, l’outil développé dans le cadre de cette thèse possède de bonnes propriétés psychométriques et permet une évaluation globale de la posture. Cet outil devrait contribuer à l’amélioration de la pratique clinique en facilitant l’analyse de la posture debout et assise. Cet outil s’avère une alternative clinique pour suivre l’évolution de la scoliose thoracique et diminuer la fréquence des radiographies au cours du suivi de jeunes atteints d’une SI thoracique. Cet outil pourrait aussi être utile pour vérifier l’efficacité des interventions thérapeutiques sur la posture.

Es mi hijo mal estudiante? : causas médicas del fracaso escolar y tratamientos para superarlo.

Resumen basado en el de la publicación

What kind of European Banking Union? Bruegel Policy Contribution [2012/12?]June 25, 2012

This paper discusses the creation of a European Banking Union. First, we discuss questions of design. We highlight seven fundamental choices that decision makers will need to make: Which EU countries should participate in the banking union? To which categories of banks should it apply? Which institution should be tasked with supervision? Which one should deal with resolution? How centralised should the deposit insurance system be? What kind of fiscal backing would be required? What governance framework and political institutions would be needed? In terms of geographical scope, we see the coverage of the banking union of the euro area as necessary and of additional countries as desirable, even though this would entail important additional economic difficulties. The system should ideally cover all banks within the countries included, in order to prevent major competitive and distributional distortions. Supervisory authority should be granted either to both the ECB and a new agency, or to a new agency alone. National supervisors, acting under the authority of the European supervisor, would be tasked with the supervision of smaller banks in accordance with the subsidiarity principle. A European resolution authority should be established, with the possibility of drawing on ESM resources. A fully centralized deposit insurance system would eventually be desirable, but a system of partial reinsurance may also be envisaged at least in a first phase. A banking union would require at least implicit European fiscal backing, with significant political authority and legitimacy. Thus, banking union cannot be considered entirely separately from fiscal union and political union. The most difficult challenge of creating a European banking union lies with the short-term steps towards its eventual implementation. Many banks in the euro area, and especially in the crisis countries, are currently under stress and the move towards banking union almost certainly has significant distributional implications. Yet it is precisely because banks are under such stress that early and concrete action is needed. An overarching principle for such action is to minimize the cost to the tax payers. The first step should be to create a European supervisor that will anchor the development of the future banking union. In parallel, a capability to quickly assess the true capital position of the system’s most important banks should be created, for which we suggest establishing a temporary European Banking Sector Task Force working together with the European supervisor and other authorities. Ideally, problems identified by this process should be resolved by national authorities; in case fiscal capacities would prove insufficient, the European level would take over in the country concerned with some national financial participation, or in an even less likely adverse scenario, in all participating countries at once. This approach would require the passing of emergency legislation in the concerned countries that would give the Task Force the required access to information and, if necessary, further intervention rights. Thus, the principle of fiscal responsibility of respective member states for legacy costs would be preserved to the maximum extent possible, and at the same time, market participants and the public would be reassured that adequate tools are in place to address any eventuality.

Inference on microsatellite mutation processes in the invasive mite, Varroa destructor, using reversible jump Markov chain Monte Carlo

Varroa destructor is a parasitic mite of the Eastern honeybee Apis cerana. Fifty years ago, two distinct evolutionary lineages (Korean and Japanese) invaded the Western honeybee Apis mellifera. This haplo-diploid parasite species reproduces mainly through brother sister matings, a system which largely favors the fixation of new mutations. In a worldwide sample of 225 individuals from 21 locations collected on Western honeybees and analyzed at 19 microsatellite loci, a series of de novo mutations was observed. Using historical data concerning the invasion, this original biological system has been exploited to compare three mutation models with allele size constraints for microsatellite markers: stepwise (SMM) and generalized (GSM) mutation models, and a model with mutation rate increasing exponentially with microsatellite length (ESM). Posterior probabilities of the three models have been estimated for each locus individually using reversible jump Markov Chain Monte Carlo. The relative support of each model varies widely among loci, but the GSM is the only model that always receives at least 9% support, whatever the locus. The analysis also provides robust estimates of mutation parameters for each locus and of the divergence time of the two invasive lineages (67,000 generations with a 90% credibility interval of 35,000-174,000). With an average of 10 generations per year, this divergence time fits with the last post-glacial Korea Japan land separation. (c) 2005 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Evaluation of Earth system models using modern and palaeo-observations: the state-of-the-art

Earth system models are increasing in complexity and incorporating more processes than their predecessors, making them important tools for studying the global carbon cycle. However, their coupled behaviour has only recently been examined in any detail, and has yielded a very wide range of outcomes, with coupled climate-carbon cycle models that represent land-use change simulating total land carbon stores by 2100 that vary by as much as 600 Pg C given the same emissions scenario. This large uncertainty is associated with differences in how key processes are simulated in different models, and illustrates the necessity of determining which models are most realistic using rigorous model evaluation methodologies. Here we assess the state-of-the-art with respect to evaluation of Earth system models, with a particular emphasis on the simulation of the carbon cycle and associated biospheric processes. We examine some of the new advances and remaining uncertainties relating to (i) modern and palaeo data and (ii) metrics for evaluation, and discuss a range of strategies, such as the inclusion of pre-calibration, combined process- and system-level evaluation, and the use of emergent constraints, that can contribute towards the development of more robust evaluation schemes. An increasingly data-rich environment offers more opportunities for model evaluation, but it is also a challenge, as more knowledge about data uncertainties is required in order to determine robust evaluation methodologies that move the field of ESM evaluation from "beauty contest" toward the development of useful constraints on model behaviour.

The HadGEM2-ES implementation of CMIP5 centennial simulations

The scientific understanding of the Earth’s climate system, including the central question of how the climate system is likely to respond to human-induced perturbations, is comprehensively captured in GCMs and Earth System Models (ESM). Diagnosing the simulated climate response, and comparing responses across different models, is crucially dependent on transparent assumptions of how the GCM/ESM has been driven – especially because the implementation can involve subjective decisions and may differ between modelling groups performing the same experiment. This paper outlines the climate forcings and setup of the Met Office Hadley Centre ESM, HadGEM2-ES for the CMIP5 set of centennial experiments. We document the prescribed greenhouse gas concentrations, aerosol precursors, stratospheric and tropospheric ozone assumptions, as well as implementation of land-use change and natural forcings for the HadGEM2-ES historical and future experiments following the Representative Concentration Pathways. In addition, we provide details of how HadGEM2-ES ensemble members were initialised from the control run and how the palaeoclimate and AMIP experiments, as well as the “emission driven” RCP experiments were performed.

Evaluation of biospheric components in Earth system models using modern and palaeo-observations: the state-of-the-art

Earth system models (ESMs) are increasing in complexity by incorporating more processes than their predecessors, making them potentially important tools for studying the evolution of climate and associated biogeochemical cycles. However, their coupled behaviour has only recently been examined in any detail, and has yielded a very wide range of outcomes. For example, coupled climate–carbon cycle models that represent land-use change simulate total land carbon stores at 2100 that vary by as much as 600 Pg C, given the same emissions scenario. This large uncertainty is associated with differences in how key processes are simulated in different models, and illustrates the necessity of determining which models are most realistic using rigorous methods of model evaluation. Here we assess the state-of-the-art in evaluation of ESMs, with a particular emphasis on the simulation of the carbon cycle and associated biospheric processes. We examine some of the new advances and remaining uncertainties relating to (i) modern and palaeodata and (ii) metrics for evaluation. We note that the practice of averaging results from many models is unreliable and no substitute for proper evaluation of individual models. We discuss a range of strategies, such as the inclusion of pre-calibration, combined process- and system-level evaluation, and the use of emergent constraints, that can contribute to the development of more robust evaluation schemes. An increasingly data-rich environment offers more opportunities for model evaluation, but also presents a challenge. Improved knowledge of data uncertainties is still necessary to move the field of ESM evaluation away from a "beauty contest" towards the development of useful constraints on model outcomes.

Statistical-dynamical downscaling for wind energy potentials: evaluation and applications to decadal hindcasts and climate change projections

A statistical–dynamical downscaling (SDD) approach for the regionalization of wind energy output (Eout) over Europe with special focus on Germany is proposed. SDD uses an extended circulation weather type (CWT) analysis on global daily mean sea level pressure fields with the central point being located over Germany. Seventy-seven weather classes based on the associated CWT and the intensity of the geostrophic flow are identified. Representatives of these classes are dynamically downscaled with the regional climate model COSMO-CLM. By using weather class frequencies of different data sets, the simulated representatives are recombined to probability density functions (PDFs) of near-surface wind speed and finally to Eout of a sample wind turbine for present and future climate. This is performed for reanalysis, decadal hindcasts and long-term future projections. For evaluation purposes, results of SDD are compared to wind observations and to simulated Eout of purely dynamical downscaling (DD) methods. For the present climate, SDD is able to simulate realistic PDFs of 10-m wind speed for most stations in Germany. The resulting spatial Eout patterns are similar to DD-simulated Eout. In terms of decadal hindcasts, results of SDD are similar to DD-simulated Eout over Germany, Poland, Czech Republic, and Benelux, for which high correlations between annual Eout time series of SDD and DD are detected for selected hindcasts. Lower correlation is found for other European countries. It is demonstrated that SDD can be used to downscale the full ensemble of the Earth System Model of the Max Planck Institute (MPI-ESM) decadal prediction system. Long-term climate change projections in Special Report on Emission Scenarios of ECHAM5/MPI-OM as obtained by SDD agree well to the results of other studies using DD methods, with increasing Eout over northern Europe and a negative trend over southern Europe. Despite some biases, it is concluded that SDD is an adequate tool to assess regional wind energy changes in large model ensembles.

Decadal predictability of regional-scale peak winds over Europe using the Earth System Model of the Max-Planck-Institute for Meteorology

The predictability of high impact weather events on multiple time scales is a crucial issue both in scientific and socio-economic terms. In this study, a statistical-dynamical downscaling (SDD) approach is applied to an ensemble of decadal hindcasts obtained with the Max-Planck-Institute Earth System Model (MPI-ESM) to estimate the decadal predictability of peak wind speeds (as a proxy for gusts) over Europe. Yearly initialized decadal ensemble simulations with ten members are investigated for the period 1979–2005. The SDD approach is trained with COSMO-CLM regional climate model simulations and ERA-Interim reanalysis data and applied to the MPI-ESM hindcasts. The simulations for the period 1990–1993, which was characterized by several windstorm clusters, are analyzed in detail. The anomalies of the 95 % peak wind quantile of the MPI-ESM hindcasts are in line with the positive anomalies in reanalysis data for this period. To evaluate both the skill of the decadal predictability system and the added value of the downscaling approach, quantile verification skill scores are calculated for both the MPI-ESM large-scale wind speeds and the SDD simulated regional peak winds. Skill scores are predominantly positive for the decadal predictability system, with the highest values for short lead times and for (peak) wind speeds equal or above the 75 % quantile. This provides evidence that the analyzed hindcasts and the downscaling technique are suitable for estimating wind and peak wind speeds over Central Europe on decadal time scales. The skill scores for SDD simulated peak winds are slightly lower than those for large-scale wind speeds. This behavior can be largely attributed to the fact that peak winds are a proxy for gusts, and thus have a higher variability than wind speeds. The introduced cost-efficient downscaling technique has the advantage of estimating not only wind speeds but also estimates peak winds (a proxy for gusts) and can be easily applied to large ensemble datasets like operational decadal prediction systems.

Decadal predictability of regional scale wind speed and wind energy potentials over Central Europe

Decadal predictions on timescales from one year to one decade are gaining importance since this time frame falls within the planning horizon of politics, economy and society. The present study examines the decadal predictability of regional wind speed and wind energy potentials in three generations of the MiKlip (‘Mittelfristige Klimaprognosen’) decadal prediction system. The system is based on the global Max-Planck-Institute Earth System Model (MPI-ESM), and the three generations differ primarily in the ocean initialisation. Ensembles of uninitialised historical and yearly initialised hindcast experiments are used to assess the forecast skill for 10 m wind speeds and wind energy output (Eout) over Central Europe with lead times from one year to one decade. With this aim, a statistical-dynamical downscaling (SDD) approach is used for the regionalisation. Its added value is evaluated by comparison of skill scores for MPI-ESM large-scale wind speeds and SDD-simulated regional wind speeds. All three MPI-ESM ensemble generations show some forecast skill for annual mean wind speed and Eout over Central Europe on yearly and multi-yearly time scales. This forecast skill is mostly limited to the first years after initialisation. Differences between the three ensemble generations are generally small. The regionalisation preserves and sometimes increases the forecast skills of the global runs but results depend on lead time and ensemble generation. Moreover, regionalisation often improves the ensemble spread. Seasonal Eout skills are generally lower than for annual means. Skill scores are lowest during summer and persist longest in autumn. A large-scale westerly weather type with strong pressure gradients over Central Europe is identified as potential source of the skill for wind energy potentials, showing a similar forecast skill and a high correlation with Eout anomalies. These results are promising towards the establishment of a decadal prediction system for wind energy applications over Central Europe.