Environmental influence on the phenotype of ant workers revealed by common garden experiment

Many organism traits vary along environmental gradients. Common garden experiments provide powerful means to disentangle the role of intrinsic factors, such as genetic or maternal effects, from extrinsic environmental factors in shaping phenotypic variation. Here, we investigate body size and lipid content variation in workers of the socially polymorphic ant Formica selysi along several independent elevation gradients in Switzerland. We compare field-collected workers and workers sampled as eggs from the same colonies but reared in common laboratory conditions. Overall, field-collected workers from high elevation are larger than those from low elevation, but the trend varies substantially among valleys. The same pattern is recovered when the eggs are reared in a common garden, which indicates that body size variation along elevation gradients and valleys is partly explained by genetic or maternal effects. However, both body size and lipid content exhibit significantly greater variation in field-collected workers than in laboratory-reared workers. Hence, much of the phenotypic variation results from a plastic response to the environment, rather than from genetic differences. Eggs from different elevations also show no significant difference in development time in the common garden. Overall, selection on individual worker phenotypes is unlikely to drive the altitudinal distribution of single- and multiple-queen colonies in this system, as phenotypic variation tends to be plastic and can be decoupled from social structure. This study provides insights into the interplay between individual phenotypic variation and social organization and how the two jointly respond to differing environmental conditions.

Environmental factors and vegetation composition, Lefka Ori Massif, Crete, S. Aegean

Aim The aim of this study was to explore the environmental factors that determine the spatial distribution of oro-mediterranean and alti-mediterranean plant communities in Crete. Location The paper provides a quantitative analysis of vegetation-environment relationships for two study areas within the Lefka Ori massif Crete, a proposed Natura 2000 site. Methods Eleven environmental variables were recorded: altitude, slope, aspect, percentage of bare rock, percentage of unvegetated ground, soil depth, pH, organic matter content and percentages of sand, silt and clay content. Classification of the vegetation was based on twinspan, while detrended correspondence analysis (DCA) and canonical correspondence analysis (CCA) were used to identify environmental gradients linked to community distribution. Results One hundred and twenty-five species were recorded from 120 plots located within the two study areas. Forty-seven of the recorded species are endemic, belonging to 35 families. Hemicryptophytes and chamaephytes were the most frequent, suggesting a typical oro-mediterranean life form spectrum. The samples were classified into five main community types and one transitional. The main gradients, identified by CCA, were altitude and surface cover type in the North-west site, while in the Central site the gradients were soil formation-development and surface cover type. Main conclusions The use of classification in combination with ordination techniques resulted in a good discrimination between plant communities and a greater understanding of controlling environmental factors. The methodology adopted can be employed for improving baseline information on plant community ecology and distribution in Mediterranean mountain zones.

Macrophyte community structure and species occurrence in relation to environmental determinants in the ephemeral aquatic habitats of Gavdos, Greece

The aims of this study were to explore the environmental factors that determine the distribution of plant communities in temporary rock pools and provide a quantitative analysis of vegetation-environment relationships for five study sites on the island of Gavdos, southwest of Crete, Greece. Data from 99 rock pools were collected and analysed using Two-Way Indicator Species Analysis (TWINSPAN), Detrended Correspondence Analysis (DCA) and Canonical Correspondence Analysis (CCA) to identify the principal communities and environmental gradients that are linked to community distribution. A total of 46 species belonging to 21 families were recorded within the study area. The dominant families were Labiatae, Gramineae and Compositae while therophytes and chamaephytes were the most frequent life forms. The samples were classified into six community types using TWINSPAN, which were also corroborated by CCA analysis. The principal gradients for vegetation distribution, identified by CCA, were associated with water storage and water retention ability, as expressed by pool perimeter and water depth. Generalised Additive Models (GAMs) were employed to identify responses of four dominant rock pool species to water depth. The resulting species response curves showed niche differentiation in the cases of Callitriche pulchra and Tillaea vaillantii and revealed competition between Zannichellia pedunculata and Chara vulgaris. The use of classification in combination with ordination techniques resulted in a good discrimination between plant communities. Generalised Additive Models are a powerful tool in investigating species response curves to environmental gradients. The methodology adopted can be employed for improving baseline information on plant community ecology and distribution in Mediterranean ephemeral pools.

Altitude acts as an environmental filter on phylogenetic composition, traits and diversity in bee communities.

Knowledge about the phylogeny and ecology of communities along environmental gradients helps to disentangle the role of competition-driven processes and environmental filtering for community assembly. In this study, we evaluated patterns in species richness, phylogenetic structure and life-history traits of bee communities along altitudinal gradients in the Alps, Germany. We found a linear decline in species richness and abundance but increasing phylogenetic clustering in communities with increasing altitude. The proportion of social- and ground-nesting species, as well as mean body size and altitudinal range of bee communities, increased with increasing altitude, whereas the mean geographical distribution decreased. Our results suggest that community assembly at high altitudes is dominated by environmental filtering effects, whereas the relative importance of competition increases at low altitudes. We conclude that inherent phylogenetic and ecological species attributes at high altitudes pose a threat for less competitive alpine specialists with ongoing climate change.

Responses of leaf traits to climatic gradients: adaptive variation versus compositional shifts

Dynamic global vegetation models (DGVMs) typically rely on plant functional types (PFTs), which are assigned distinct environmental tolerances and replace one another progressively along environmental gradients. Fixed values of traits are assigned to each PFT; modelled trait variation along gradients is thus driven by PFT replacement. But empirical studies have revealed "universal" scaling relationships (quantitative trait variations with climate that are similar within and between species, PFTs and communities); and continuous, adaptive trait variation has been proposed to replace PFTs as the basis for next-generation DGVMs. Here we analyse quantitative leaf-trait variation on long temperature and moisture gradients in China with a view to understanding the relative importance of PFT replacement vs. continuous adaptive variation within PFTs. Leaf area (LA), specific leaf area (SLA), leaf dry matter content (LDMC) and nitrogen content of dry matter were measured on all species at 80 sites ranging from temperate to tropical climates and from dense forests to deserts. Chlorophyll fluorescence traits and carbon, phosphorus and potassium contents were measured at 47 sites. Generalized linear models were used to relate log-transformed trait values to growing-season temperature and moisture indices, with or without PFT identity as a predictor, and to test for differences in trait responses among PFTs. Continuous trait variation was found to be ubiquitous. Responses to moisture availability were generally similar within and between PFTs, but biophysical traits (LA, SLA and LDMC) of forbs and grasses responded differently from woody plants. SLA and LDMC responses to temperature were dominated by the prevalence of evergreen PFTs with thick, dense leaves at the warm end of the gradient. Nutrient (N, P and K) responses to climate gradients were generally similar within all PFTs. Area-based nutrients generally declined with moisture; Narea and Karea declined with temperature, but Parea increased with temperature. Although the adaptive nature of many of these trait-climate relationships is understood qualitatively, a key challenge for modelling is to predict them quantitatively. Models must take into account that community-level responses to climatic gradients can be influenced by shifts in PFT composition, such as the replacement of deciduous by evergreen trees, which may run either parallel or counter to trait variation within PFTs. The importance of PFT shifts varies among traits, being important for biophysical traits but less so for physiological and chemical traits. Finally, models should take account of the diversity of trait values that is found in all sites and PFTs, representing the "pool" of variation that is locally available for the natural adaptation of ecosystem function to environmental change.

Spatial Variation in Morphometry in Vanzosaura rubricauda (Squamata, Gymnophthalmidae) from Open Habitats of South America and its Environmental Correlates

Fundação de Amparo à Pesquisa do Estado de São Paulo (FAPESP)

Ecological gradients and landscape structure affecting seasonal woodpigeon Columba palumbus densities in a coastal region (South-East Spain)

The aim of the present study is to identify and evaluate the relationship between Woodpigeon (Columba palumbus, Linnaeus, 1758) density and different environmental gradients (thermotype, ombrotype, continentality and latitudinal), land use and landscape structure, using geographic information systems and multivariate modelling. Transects (n = 396) were developed to estimate the density of Woodpigeon in the Marina Baja (Alicante, Spain) from 2006 to 2008. The highestdensity for Woodpigeon was in September-October (1.28birds/10ha) and the lowest inFebruary-March (0.34birds/10ha). Moreover, there were more Woodpigeons in areas with a mesomediterranean thermotypethan in thermomediterranean or supramediterranean ones. There was greater densityinthe intermediate zones compared to thecoast and interior. The natural or cultural landscape had the highest Woodpigeon density (1.53birds/10ha), with both denseand clear pine forest values standing out. Therefore, it is very important to conserve these traditional landscapes with adequate management strategies in order to maintain, resident and transient Woodpigeon populations. These natural areas are open places where the Woodpigeons find food and detect the presence ofpredators. Thus, this study will enable more precise knowledge of the ecological factors (habitat variables) that intervene in the distribution of Woodpigeon populations and their density.

Main ecological gradients and landscape matrix affect wild rabbit Oryctolagus cuniculus (Linnaeus, 1758) (Mammalia: Leporidae) abundance in a coastal region (South-East Spain)

Landscape analysis with transects, in the Marina Baja area (province of Alicante, Spain), has contributed to establish the influence of different landscape matrices and some environmental gradients on wild rabbit Oryctolagus cuniculus (Linnaeus, 1758) (Mammalia: Leporidae) abundance (kilometric abundance index, KAI). Transects (n = 396) were developed to estimate the abundance of this species in the study area from 2006 to 2008.Our analysis shows that rabbits have preferences for a specific land use matrix (irrigated: KAI = 3.47 ± 1.14 rabbits/km). They prefer the coastal area (KAI = 3.82 ± 1.71 rabbits/km), which coincides with thermo-Mediterranean (a bioclimatic belt with a tempered winter and a hot and dry summer with high human density), as opposed to areas in the interior (continental climate with lower human occupation). Their preference for the southern area of the region was also noted (KAI = 8.22 ± 3.90 rabbits/km), which coincides with the upper semi-arid area, as opposed to the northern and intermediate areas (the north of the region coinciding with the upper dry and the intermediate area with the lower dry). On the other hand, we found that the number of rabbits increased during the 3-year study period, with the highest abundance (KAI = 2.71 ± 1.30 rabbits/km) inMay. Thus, this study will enable more precise knowledge of the ecological factors (habitat variables) that intervene in the distribution of wild rabbit populations in a poorly studied area.

Long-term Responses of Mountain Ecosystems to Environmental Changes: Resilience, Adjustment, and Vulnerability

The steep environmental gradients of mountain ecosystems over short distances reflect large gradients of several climatic parameters and hence provide excellent possibilities for ecological research on the effects of environmental change. To gain a better understanding of the dynamics of abiotic and biotic parameters of mountain ecosystems, long-term records are required since permanent plots in mountain regions cover in the best case about 50 - 70 years. In order to extend investigations of ecological dynamics beyond these temporal limitations of permanent plots, paleoecological approaches can be used if the sampling resolution can be adapted to ecological research questions, e.g. a sample every 10 years. Paleoecological studies in mountain ecosystems can provide new ecological insights through the combination of different spatial and temporal scales. [f we thus improve our understanding of processes across both steep environmental gradients and different time scales, we may be able to better estimate ecosystem responses to current and future environmental change (Ammann et al. 1993; Lotter et al. 1997). The complexity of ecological interactions in mountain regions forces us to concentrate on a number of sub-systems - without losing sight of the wider context. Here, we summarize a few case studies on the effects of Holocene climate change and disturbance on the vegetation of the Western Alps. To categorize the main response modes of vegetation to climatic change and disturbance in the Alps we use three classes of ecological behaviour: "resilience", "adjustment", and "vulnerability", We assume a resilient (or elastic) behaviour if vegetation is able to recover to its former state, regaining important ecosystem characteristics, such as floristic composition, biodiversity, species abundances, and biomass (e.g. Küttel 1990; Aber and Melillo 199 1). Conversely, vegetation displacements may occur in response to climatic change and/or disturbance. In some cases, this may culminate in irreversible large-scale processes such as species and/or community extinctions. Such drastic developments indicate high ecosystem vulnerability (or inelasticity or instability, for detailed definitions see Küttel 1990; Aber and Melillo 199 1) to climatic change and/or disturbance. In this sense, the "vulnerability" (or instability) of an ecosystem is expressed by the degree of failure to recover to the original state before disturbance and/or climatic change. Between these two extremes (resilience vs. vulnerability), ecosystem adjustments to climatic change and/or disturbance may occur, including the appearance of new and/or the disappearance of old species. The term "adjustment" is hence used to indicate the response of vegetational communities, which adapted to new environmental conditions without losing their main character. For forest ecosystems, we assume vegetational adjustments (rather than vulnerability) if the dominant (or co-dominant) tree species are not outnumbered or replaced by formerly unimportant plant species or new invaders. Adaptation as a genetic process is not discussed here and will require additional pbylogeographical studies (that incorporate the analysis of ancient DNA) in order to fully understand the distributions of ecotypes.

Metacommunity Structure Along Resource and Disturbance Gradients in Everglades Wetlands

We evaluated metacommunity hypotheses of landscape arrangement (indicative of dispersal limitation) and environmental gradients (hydroperiod and nutrients) in structuring macroinvertebrate and fish communities in the southern Everglades. We used samples collected at sites from the eastern boundary of the southern Everglades and from Shark River Slough, to evaluate the role of these factors in metacommunity structure. We used eigenfunction spatial analysis to model community structure among sites and distance-based redundancy analysis to partition the variability in communities between spatial and environmental filters. For most animal communities, hydrological parameters had a greater influence on structure than nutrient enrichment, however both had large effects. The influence of spatial effects indicative of dispersal limitation was weak and only periphyton infauna appeared to be limited by regional dispersal. At the landscape scale, communities were well-mixed, but strongly influenced by hydrology. Local-scale species dominance was influenced by water-permanence and nutrient enrichment. Nutrient enrichment is limited to water inflow points associated with canals, which may explain its impact in this data set. Hydroperiod and nutrient enrichment are controlled by water managers; our analysis indicates that the decisions they make have strong effects on the communities at the base of the Everglades food web.

Microbial Community Responses to Environmental Perturbation

Microorganisms mediate many biogeochemical processes critical to the functioning of ecosystems, which places them as an intermediate between environmental change and the resulting ecosystem response. Yet, we have an incomplete understanding of these relationships, how to predict them, and when they are influential. Understanding these dynamics will inform ecological principles developed for macroorganisms and aid expectations for microbial responses to new gradients. To address this research goal, I used two studies of environmental gradients and a literature synthesis.

With the gradient studies, I assessed microbial community composition in stream biofilms across a gradient of alkaline mine drainage. I used multivariate approaches to examine changes in the non-eukaryote microbial community composition of taxa (chapter 2) and functional genes (chapter 3). I found that stream biofilms at sites receiving alkaline mine drainage had distinct community composition and also differed in the composition of functional gene groups compared with unmined reference sites. Compositional shifts were not dominated by groups that could benefit from mining associated increases of terminal electron acceptors; two-thirds of responsive taxa and functional gene groups were negatively associated with mining. The majority of subsidies and stressors (nitrate, sulfate, conductivity) had no consistent relationships with taxa or gene abundances. However, methane metabolism genes were less abundant at mined sites and there was a strong, positive correlation between selenate reductase gene abundance and mining-associated selenium. These results highlighted the potential for indirect factors to also play an important role in explaining compositional shifts.

In the fourth chapter, I synthesized studies that use environmental perturbations to explore microbial community structure and microbial process connections. I examined nine journals (2009–13) and found that many qualifying papers (112 of 148) documented structure and process responses, but few (38 of 112 papers) reported statistically testing for a link. Of these tested links, 75% were significant. No particular approach for characterizing structure or processes was more likely to produce significant links. Process responses were detected earlier on average than responses in structure. Together, the findings suggested that few publications report statistically testing structure-process links; but when tested, links often occurred yet shared few commonalities in linked processes or structures and the techniques used for measuring them.

Although the research community has made progress, much work remains to ensure that the vast and growing wealth of microbial informatics data is translated into useful ecological information. In part, this challenge can be approached through using hypotheses to guide analyses, but also by being open to opportunities for hypothesis generation. The results from my dissertation work advise that it is important to carefully interpret shifts in community composition in relation to abiotic characteristics and recommend considering ecological, thermodynamic, and kinetic principles to understand the properties governing community responses to environmental perturbation.

Generalities of vertebrate responses to landscape composition and configuration gradients in a highly heterogeneous Mediterranean region

Aim To examine the distributional patterns of vertebrates (including birds, bats, carnivores and lagomorphs) along landscape composition and configuration gradients to better understand the effects of landscape modification on occurrence patterns at both species and community level. Location The region of Alentejo, a forest-dominated area of southern Portugal. Methods The study area was framed using 1647 hexagonal plots, each of 259 ha in size. Composition and configuration gradients were obtained for each plot by integrating the proportions of the main land cover types and their configuration patterns using multivariate analyses. Species-specific vertebrate responses were investigated using data from 75 plots in which carnivores, bats and lagomorphs were sampled, and from 135 plots in the case of birds. Community- level responses were investigated through changes in species richness and beta-diversity in 57 plots where all vertebrate groups were simultaneously sampled. At the species-level, an information-theoretic approach was used to determine the effects of landscape gradients on species’ responses. At the community level, Mantel tests were used to determine between-plot differences in species composition using the Sørensen dissimilarity index. Results We found that the occurrence patterns of most vertebrate species were best predicted by composition-related gradients, although configuration gradients were also frequently included in species-specific occurrence models. We also found a weak correlation between species richness and most landscape gradients suggesting a turnover in the identity of species, something that was corroborated by the stronger correlation between environmental gradients and beta-diversity measures. The amount of forest cover and landscape complexity (estimated as the heterogeneity in the size and number of land cover types) were the main composition and configuration gradients determining vertebrate responses at both species and community level. Main conclusions Our work contributes to a more refined understanding of the mechanisms underlying species distributional patterns in real-world human-modified landscapes. By uncovering generalities of species with multiple ecological requirements and by describing the entire landscape mosaic through landscape gradients, we also suggest that our work greatly helps to fill the gap between existing conceptual landscape models aimed to understand species distributional patterns in human-modified landscapes.

Palm community transitions along a topographic gradient from floodplain to terra firme in the eastern Amazon

Palms show clear niche segregation patterns along topographic gradients in tropical forests, with some species associated to terra firme and others to seasonally flooded areas. The aim of this study was to quantitatively describe the fine-scale spatial variation within a palm community, tracking the changes in species' abundance along environmental gradients associated with a perennial stream the eastern Amazon. The study of palm communities was based on 60 forest plots in which all adult palms were counted. We found a total of 566 palms in a community containing 11 species. Furthermore, we found a significant separation in the palm community between seasonally-flooded and terra firme forests. We found a gradient with various densities of the three most abundant palm species within the first 100 m away from the flooded area. Other species were located exclusively in the terra firme forest. The abundance of the six most common species were distributed in relation to humidity gradients from floodplains to terra firme, with palm distribution from the most flood-tolerant to the least flood-tolerant palm species as follows: Euterpe oleracea, Attalea phalerata and Socratea exorrhiza (species with floodplain affinity), Astrocaryum gynacanthum, Astrocaryum aculeatum, Attalea maripa (species with terra firme affinity)

Species distribution models for conservation-oriented studies in Switzerland : filling data and tools gaps

SUMMARYSpecies distribution models (SDMs) represent nowadays an essential tool in the research fields of ecology and conservation biology. By combining observations of species occurrence or abundance with information on the environmental characteristic of the observation sites, they can provide information on the ecology of species, predict their distributions across the landscape or extrapolate them to other spatial or time frames. The advent of SDMs, supported by geographic information systems (GIS), new developments in statistical models and constantly increasing computational capacities, has revolutionized the way ecologists can comprehend species distributions in their environment. SDMs have brought the tool that allows describing species realized niches across a multivariate environmental space and predict their spatial distribution. Predictions, in the form of probabilistic maps showing the potential distribution of the species, are an irreplaceable mean to inform every single unit of a territory about its biodiversity potential. SDMs and the corresponding spatial predictions can be used to plan conservation actions for particular species, to design field surveys, to assess the risks related to the spread of invasive species, to select reserve locations and design reserve networks, and ultimately, to forecast distributional changes according to scenarios of climate and/or land use change.By assessing the effect of several factors on model performance and on the accuracy of spatial predictions, this thesis aims at improving techniques and data available for distribution modelling and at providing the best possible information to conservation managers to support their decisions and action plans for the conservation of biodiversity in Switzerland and beyond. Several monitoring programs have been put in place from the national to the global scale, and different sources of data now exist and start to be available to researchers who want to model species distribution. However, because of the lack of means, data are often not gathered at an appropriate resolution, are sampled only over limited areas, are not spatially explicit or do not provide a sound biological information. A typical example of this is data on 'habitat' (sensu biota). Even though this is essential information for an effective conservation planning, it often has to be approximated from land use, the closest available information. Moreover, data are often not sampled according to an established sampling design, which can lead to biased samples and consequently to spurious modelling results. Understanding the sources of variability linked to the different phases of the modelling process and their importance is crucial in order to evaluate the final distribution maps that are to be used for conservation purposes.The research presented in this thesis was essentially conducted within the framework of the Landspot Project, a project supported by the Swiss National Science Foundation. The main goal of the project was to assess the possible contribution of pre-modelled 'habitat' units to model the distribution of animal species, in particular butterfly species, across Switzerland. While pursuing this goal, different aspects of data quality, sampling design and modelling process were addressed and improved, and implications for conservation discussed. The main 'habitat' units considered in this thesis are grassland and forest communities of natural and anthropogenic origin as defined in the typology of habitats for Switzerland. These communities are mainly defined at the phytosociological level of the alliance. For the time being, no comprehensive map of such communities is available at the national scale and at fine resolution. As a first step, it was therefore necessary to create distribution models and maps for these communities across Switzerland and thus to gather and collect the necessary data. In order to reach this first objective, several new developments were necessary such as the definition of expert models, the classification of the Swiss territory in environmental domains, the design of an environmentally stratified sampling of the target vegetation units across Switzerland, the development of a database integrating a decision-support system assisting in the classification of the relevés, and the downscaling of the land use/cover data from 100 m to 25 m resolution.The main contributions of this thesis to the discipline of species distribution modelling (SDM) are assembled in four main scientific papers. In the first, published in Journal of Riogeography different issues related to the modelling process itself are investigated. First is assessed the effect of five different stepwise selection methods on model performance, stability and parsimony, using data of the forest inventory of State of Vaud. In the same paper are also assessed: the effect of weighting absences to ensure a prevalence of 0.5 prior to model calibration; the effect of limiting absences beyond the environmental envelope defined by presences; four different methods for incorporating spatial autocorrelation; and finally, the effect of integrating predictor interactions. Results allowed to specifically enhance the GRASP tool (Generalized Regression Analysis and Spatial Predictions) that now incorporates new selection methods and the possibility of dealing with interactions among predictors as well as spatial autocorrelation. The contribution of different sources of remotely sensed information to species distribution models was also assessed. The second paper (to be submitted) explores the combined effects of sample size and data post-stratification on the accuracy of models using data on grassland distribution across Switzerland collected within the framework of the Landspot project and supplemented with other important vegetation databases. For the stratification of the data, different spatial frameworks were compared. In particular, environmental stratification by Swiss Environmental Domains was compared to geographical stratification either by biogeographic regions or political states (cantons). The third paper (to be submitted) assesses the contribution of pre- modelled vegetation communities to the modelling of fauna. It is a two-steps approach that combines the disciplines of community ecology and spatial ecology and integrates their corresponding concepts of habitat. First are modelled vegetation communities per se and then these 'habitat' units are used in order to model animal species habitat. A case study is presented with grassland communities and butterfly species. Different ways of integrating vegetation information in the models of butterfly distribution were also evaluated. Finally, a glimpse to climate change is given in the fourth paper, recently published in Ecological Modelling. This paper proposes a conceptual framework for analysing range shifts, namely a catalogue of the possible patterns of change in the distribution of a species along elevational or other environmental gradients and an improved quantitative methodology to identify and objectively describe these patterns. The methodology was developed using data from the Swiss national common breeding bird survey and the article presents results concerning the observed shifts in the elevational distribution of breeding birds in Switzerland.The overall objective of this thesis is to improve species distribution models as potential inputs for different conservation tools (e.g. red lists, ecological networks, risk assessment of the spread of invasive species, vulnerability assessment in the context of climate change). While no conservation issues or tools are directly tested in this thesis, the importance of the proposed improvements made in species distribution modelling is discussed in the context of the selection of reserve networks.RESUMELes modèles de distribution d'espèces (SDMs) représentent aujourd'hui un outil essentiel dans les domaines de recherche de l'écologie et de la biologie de la conservation. En combinant les observations de la présence des espèces ou de leur abondance avec des informations sur les caractéristiques environnementales des sites d'observation, ces modèles peuvent fournir des informations sur l'écologie des espèces, prédire leur distribution à travers le paysage ou l'extrapoler dans l'espace et le temps. Le déploiement des SDMs, soutenu par les systèmes d'information géographique (SIG), les nouveaux développements dans les modèles statistiques, ainsi que la constante augmentation des capacités de calcul, a révolutionné la façon dont les écologistes peuvent comprendre la distribution des espèces dans leur environnement. Les SDMs ont apporté l'outil qui permet de décrire la niche réalisée des espèces dans un espace environnemental multivarié et prédire leur distribution spatiale. Les prédictions, sous forme de carte probabilistes montrant la distribution potentielle de l'espèce, sont un moyen irremplaçable d'informer chaque unité du territoire de sa biodiversité potentielle. Les SDMs et les prédictions spatiales correspondantes peuvent être utilisés pour planifier des mesures de conservation pour des espèces particulières, pour concevoir des plans d'échantillonnage, pour évaluer les risques liés à la propagation d'espèces envahissantes, pour choisir l'emplacement de réserves et les mettre en réseau, et finalement, pour prévoir les changements de répartition en fonction de scénarios de changement climatique et/ou d'utilisation du sol. En évaluant l'effet de plusieurs facteurs sur la performance des modèles et sur la précision des prédictions spatiales, cette thèse vise à améliorer les techniques et les données disponibles pour la modélisation de la distribution des espèces et à fournir la meilleure information possible aux gestionnaires pour appuyer leurs décisions et leurs plans d'action pour la conservation de la biodiversité en Suisse et au-delà. Plusieurs programmes de surveillance ont été mis en place de l'échelle nationale à l'échelle globale, et différentes sources de données sont désormais disponibles pour les chercheurs qui veulent modéliser la distribution des espèces. Toutefois, en raison du manque de moyens, les données sont souvent collectées à une résolution inappropriée, sont échantillonnées sur des zones limitées, ne sont pas spatialement explicites ou ne fournissent pas une information écologique suffisante. Un exemple typique est fourni par les données sur 'l'habitat' (sensu biota). Même s'il s'agit d'une information essentielle pour des mesures de conservation efficaces, elle est souvent approximée par l'utilisation du sol, l'information qui s'en approche le plus. En outre, les données ne sont souvent pas échantillonnées selon un plan d'échantillonnage établi, ce qui biaise les échantillons et par conséquent les résultats de la modélisation. Comprendre les sources de variabilité liées aux différentes phases du processus de modélisation s'avère crucial afin d'évaluer l'utilisation des cartes de distribution prédites à des fins de conservation.La recherche présentée dans cette thèse a été essentiellement menée dans le cadre du projet Landspot, un projet soutenu par le Fond National Suisse pour la Recherche. L'objectif principal de ce projet était d'évaluer la contribution d'unités 'd'habitat' pré-modélisées pour modéliser la répartition des espèces animales, notamment de papillons, à travers la Suisse. Tout en poursuivant cet objectif, différents aspects touchant à la qualité des données, au plan d'échantillonnage et au processus de modélisation sont abordés et améliorés, et leurs implications pour la conservation des espèces discutées. Les principaux 'habitats' considérés dans cette thèse sont des communautés de prairie et de forêt d'origine naturelle et anthropique telles que définies dans la typologie des habitats de Suisse. Ces communautés sont principalement définies au niveau phytosociologique de l'alliance. Pour l'instant aucune carte de la distribution de ces communautés n'est disponible à l'échelle nationale et à résolution fine. Dans un premier temps, il a donc été nécessaire de créer des modèles de distribution de ces communautés à travers la Suisse et par conséquent de recueillir les données nécessaires. Afin d'atteindre ce premier objectif, plusieurs nouveaux développements ont été nécessaires, tels que la définition de modèles experts, la classification du territoire suisse en domaines environnementaux, la conception d'un échantillonnage environnementalement stratifié des unités de végétation cibles dans toute la Suisse, la création d'une base de données intégrant un système d'aide à la décision pour la classification des relevés, et le « downscaling » des données de couverture du sol de 100 m à 25 m de résolution. Les principales contributions de cette thèse à la discipline de la modélisation de la distribution d'espèces (SDM) sont rassemblées dans quatre articles scientifiques. Dans le premier article, publié dans le Journal of Biogeography, différentes questions liées au processus de modélisation sont étudiées en utilisant les données de l'inventaire forestier de l'Etat de Vaud. Tout d'abord sont évalués les effets de cinq méthodes de sélection pas-à-pas sur la performance, la stabilité et la parcimonie des modèles. Dans le même article sont également évalués: l'effet de la pondération des absences afin d'assurer une prévalence de 0.5 lors de la calibration du modèle; l'effet de limiter les absences au-delà de l'enveloppe définie par les présences; quatre méthodes différentes pour l'intégration de l'autocorrélation spatiale; et enfin, l'effet de l'intégration d'interactions entre facteurs. Les résultats présentés dans cet article ont permis d'améliorer l'outil GRASP qui intègre désonnais de nouvelles méthodes de sélection et la possibilité de traiter les interactions entre variables explicatives, ainsi que l'autocorrélation spatiale. La contribution de différentes sources de données issues de la télédétection a également été évaluée. Le deuxième article (en voie de soumission) explore les effets combinés de la taille de l'échantillon et de la post-stratification sur le la précision des modèles. Les données utilisées ici sont celles concernant la répartition des prairies de Suisse recueillies dans le cadre du projet Landspot et complétées par d'autres sources. Pour la stratification des données, différents cadres spatiaux ont été comparés. En particulier, la stratification environnementale par les domaines environnementaux de Suisse a été comparée à la stratification géographique par les régions biogéographiques ou par les cantons. Le troisième article (en voie de soumission) évalue la contribution de communautés végétales pré-modélisées à la modélisation de la faune. C'est une approche en deux étapes qui combine les disciplines de l'écologie des communautés et de l'écologie spatiale en intégrant leurs concepts de 'habitat' respectifs. Les communautés végétales sont modélisées d'abord, puis ces unités de 'habitat' sont utilisées pour modéliser les espèces animales. Une étude de cas est présentée avec des communautés prairiales et des espèces de papillons. Différentes façons d'intégrer l'information sur la végétation dans les modèles de répartition des papillons sont évaluées. Enfin, un clin d'oeil aux changements climatiques dans le dernier article, publié dans Ecological Modelling. Cet article propose un cadre conceptuel pour l'analyse des changements dans la distribution des espèces qui comprend notamment un catalogue des différentes formes possibles de changement le long d'un gradient d'élévation ou autre gradient environnemental, et une méthode quantitative améliorée pour identifier et décrire ces déplacements. Cette méthodologie a été développée en utilisant des données issues du monitoring des oiseaux nicheurs répandus et l'article présente les résultats concernant les déplacements observés dans la distribution altitudinale des oiseaux nicheurs en Suisse.L'objectif général de cette thèse est d'améliorer les modèles de distribution des espèces en tant que source d'information possible pour les différents outils de conservation (par exemple, listes rouges, réseaux écologiques, évaluation des risques de propagation d'espèces envahissantes, évaluation de la vulnérabilité des espèces dans le contexte de changement climatique). Bien que ces questions de conservation ne soient pas directement testées dans cette thèse, l'importance des améliorations proposées pour la modélisation de la distribution des espèces est discutée à la fin de ce travail dans le contexte de la sélection de réseaux de réserves.

Social structure varies with elevation in an Alpine ant.

Insect societies vary greatly in social organization, yet the relative roles of ecological and genetic factors in driving this variation remain poorly understood. Identifying how social structure varies along environmental gradients can provide insights into the ecological conditions favouring alternative social organizations. Here, we investigate how queen number variation is distributed along elevation gradients within a socially polymorphic ant, the Alpine silver ant Formica selysi. We sampled low- and high-elevation populations in multiple Alpine valleys. We show that populations belonging to different drainage basins are genetically differentiated. In contrast, there is little genetic divergence between low- and high-elevation populations within the same drainage basin. Thus, elevation gradients in each of the drainage basins represent independent contrasts. Whatever the elevation, all well-sampled populations are socially polymorphic, containing both monogynous (= one queen) and polygynous (= multiple queen) colonies. However, the proportion of monogynous colonies per population increases at higher elevation, while the effective number of queens in polygynous colonies decreases, and this pattern is replicated in each drainage basin. The increased prevalence of colonies with a single queen at high elevation is correlated with summer and winter average temperature, but not with precipitation. The colder, unpredictable and patchy environment encountered at higher elevations may favour larger queens with the ability to disperse and establish incipient monogynous colonies independently, while the stable and continuous habitat in the lowlands may favour large, fast-growing polygynous colonies. By highlighting differences in the environmental conditions favouring monogynous or polygynous colonies, this study sheds light on the ecological factors influencing the distribution and maintenance of social polymorphism.