Gold investments and short- and long-run price determinants of the price of gold

Tämän tutkielman tavoitteena on tutkia tekijöitä jotkavaikuttavat lyhyellä ja pitkällä aikavälillä kullan hintaan. Toiseksi tutkielmassa selvitetään mitä eri sijoitusmahdollisuuksia löytyy kultaan sijoitettaessa. Aineistona käytetään kuukausitasoista dataa Yhdysvaltain ja maailman hintaindekseistä, Yhdysvaltain ja maailman inflaatiosta ja inflaation volatiliteetista, kullan beetasta, kullan lainahinnasta, luottoriskistä ja Yhdysvaltojen ja maailman valuuttakurssi indeksistä joulukuulta 1972 elokuulle 2006. Yhteisintegraatio regressiotekniikoita käytettiin muodostamaan malli jonka avullatutkittiin päätekijöitä jotka vaikuttavat kullan hintaan. Kirjallisuutta tutkimalla selvitettiin miten kultaan voidaan sijoittaa. Empiirisettulokset ovat yhteneväisiä edellisten tutkimusten kanssa. Tukea löytyi sille, että kulta on pitkän ajan suoja inflaatiota vastaan ja kulta ja Yhdysvaltojen inflaatio liikkuvat pitkällä aikavälillä yhdessä. Kullan hintaan vaikuttavat kuitenkin lyhyen ajan tekijät pitkän ajan tekijöitä enemmän. Kulta on myös sijoittajalle helppo sijoituskohde, koska se on hyvin saatavilla markkinoilla ja eri instrumentteja on lukuisia.

Effect of competitive situation and price on diffusion of mobile communications

Työn päätavoitteena oli selvittää hinnan ja kilpailutilanteen vaikutusta matkaviestinnän diffuusioon. Työn empiirinen osuus tarkasteli matkapuhelinliittymien hinnan vaikutusta liittymien diffuusioon sekä sitä, miten alan kilpailu on vaikuttanut matkaviestinnän hintatasoon. Työssä analysoitiin myös matkaviestinnän kilpailutilannetta Suomen markkinoilla. Tutkimuksen empiirinen aineisto kerättiin toissijaisista lähteistä, esimerkiksi EMC-tietokannasta. Tutkimus oli luonteeltaan kvantitatiivinen.Empiirisessä osassa käytetyt mallit oli muodostettu aikaisempien tutkimuksien perusteella. Regressioanalyysiä käytettiin arvioitaessa hinnan vaikutusta diffuusionopeuteen ja mahdollisten omaksujien määrään. Regressioanalyysissä sovellettiin ei-lineaarista mallia.Tutkimustulokset osoittivat, että tasaisesti laskevilla matkapuhelinliittymien sekä matkapuhelimien hinnoilla ei ole merkittävää vaikutusta matkaviestinnän diffuusioon. Myöskään kilpailutilanne ei ole vaikuttanut paljon matkaviestinnän yleiseen hintatasoon. Työn tulosten perusteella voitiin antaa myös muutamia toimenpide-ehdotuksia jatkotutkimuksia varten.

Heterodox Inflation Stabilization in Argentina, Brazil, and Israel. A Historical Review and Some Stylized Facts

This article presents a review of the stabilization attempts in Argentina, Brazil, and Israel during the 1980’s. Earlier research is summarized and complemented with additional sources of contemporaneous information and a detailed analysis of institutional features. The examination of these episodes underscores the strong economic and empirical relationship between the governments’ fiscal policy and the rate of inflation.

Credibility and Signaling in Disinflation- a Cross Country Examination

This paper develops a model of money demand where the opportunity cost of holding money is subject to regime changes. The regimes are fully characterized by the mean and variance of inflation and are assumed to be the result of alternative government policies. Agents are unable to directly observe whether government actions are indeed consistent with the inflation rate targeted as part of a stabilization program but can construct probability inferences on the basis of available observations of inflation and money growth. Government announcements are assumed to provide agents with additional, possibly truthful information regarding the regime. This specification is estimated and tested using data from the Israeli and Argentine high inflation periods. Results indicate the successful stabilization program implemented in Israel in July 1985 was more credible than either the earlier Israeli attempt in November 1984 or the Argentine programs. Government’s signaling might substantially simplify the inference problem and increase the speed of learning on the part of the agents. However, under certain conditions, it might increase the volatility of inflation. After the introduction of an inflation stabilization plan, the welfare gains from a temporary increase in real balances might be high enough to induce agents to raise their real balances in the short-term, even if they are uncertain about the nature of government policy and the eventual outcome of the stabilization attempt. Statistically, the model restrictions cannot be rejected at the 1% significance level.

Inflation dynamics and the New Keynesian Phillips Curve: an identification robust econometric analysis

In this paper, we use identification-robust methods to assess the empirical adequacy of a New Keynesian Phillips Curve (NKPC) equation. We focus on the Gali and Gertler’s (1999) specification, on both U.S. and Canadian data. Two variants of the model are studied: one based on a rationalexpectations assumption, and a modification to the latter which consists in using survey data on inflation expectations. The results based on these two specifications exhibit sharp differences concerning: (i) identification difficulties, (ii) backward-looking behavior, and (ii) the frequency of price adjustments. Overall, we find that there is some support for the hybrid NKPC for the U.S., whereas the model is not suited to Canada. Our findings underscore the need for employing identificationrobust inference methods in the estimation of expectations-based dynamic macroeconomic relations.

Is there a price puzzle in Brazil? An application of Bias-Corrected Bootstrap

Using data from the United States, Japan, Germany , United Kingdom and France, Sims (1992) found that positive innovations to shortterm interest rates led to sharp, persistent increases in the price level. The result was conÖrmed by other authors and, as a consequence of its non-expectable nature, was given the name "price puzzle" by Eichenbaum (1992). In this paper I investigate the existence of a price puzzle in Brazil using the same type of estimation and benchmark identiÖcation scheme employed by Christiano et al. (2000). In a methodological improvement over these studies, I qualify the results with the construction of bias-corrected bootstrap conÖdence intervals. Even though the data does show the existence of a statistically signiÖcant price puzzle in Brazil, it lasts for only one quarter and is quantitatively immaterial

The macroeconomics of price adjustments under information frictions and menu costs

Esta tese se dedica ao estudo de modelos de fixação de preços e suas implicações macroeconômicas. Nos primeiros dois capítulos analiso modelos em que as decisões das firmas sobre seus preços praticados levam em conta custos de menu e de informação. No Capítulo 1 eu estimo tais modelos empregando estatísticas de variações de preços dos Estados Unidos, e concluo que: os custos de informação são significativamente maiores que os custos de menu; os dados claramente favorecem o modelo em que informações sobre condições agregadas são custosas enquanto que as idiossincráticas têm custo zero. No Capítulo 2 investigo as consequências de choques monetários e anúncios de desinflação usando os modelos previamente estimados. Mostro que o grau de não-neutralidade monetária é maior no modelo em que parte da informação é grátis. O Capítulo 3 é um artigo em conjunto com Carlos Carvalho (PUC-Rio) e Antonella Tutino (Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas). No artigo examinamos um modelo de fixação de preços em que firmas estão sujeitas a uma restrição de fluxo de informação do tipo Shannon. Calibramos o modelo e estudamos funções impulso-resposta a choques idiossincráticos e agregados. Mostramos que as firmas vão preferir processar informações agregadas e idiossincráticas conjuntamente ao invés de investigá-las separadamente. Este tipo de processamento gera ajustes de preços mais frequentes, diminuindo a persistência de efeitos reais causados por choques monetários.

Az euróövezet bővítése és euróbevezetési stratégiák (Euro-area enlargement and euro adoption strategies)

Tanulmányunk azokat a kockázatokat és kihívásokat vizsgálja, amelyekkel az új EU tagállamok szembesülnek az euróhoz vezető úton, valamint elemzi az euró bevezetésével és a bevezetés időzítésével kapcsolatos stratégiákat is. Megvizsgáljuk a reál- és nominálkonvergencia kapcsolatát az euróövezetbe csatlakozás szemszögéből. Véleményünk szerint a gazdaság egy főre jutó jövedelemben mért kezdeti fejlettségi szintje, valamint a reálkonvergencia sebessége kihatnak a követendő stratégiákra és a belépés időzítésére. Minél alacsonyabb ugyanis egy ország egy főre jutó jövedelme, annál nagyobb az árszínvonalbeli lemaradása (amit be kell hoznia), és az új tagok jelenlegi helyzetét figyelembe véve annál nagyobb a veszélye annak, hogy a hitelek növekedése túlzottá, a gazdaság túlfűtötté válik. Úgy gondoljuk, hogy az inflációkövetés lebegő árfolyam mellett megfelelőbb az árszínvonal felzárkózási folyamatának kezelésére, mint valamilyen merev árfolyamrögzítés. Elemezzük a maastrichti kritériumokat az új EU-tagállamok gazdasági jellemzőinek szempontjából, és az inflációs kritérium módosítását javasoljuk, amely jelenlegi formájában elvesztette közgazdasági értelmét. JEL kód: E31, E52, E60, F30. /===/ This paper commissioned by DG ECFIN from the EU Commission as part of the EMU@10 project and published in Hungarian by the permission of the EU Commission. The origi-nal English version is available at http://ec.europa.eu/economy_finance/publications/ publication_summary12103_en.htm. The paper discusses the risks and challenges faced by new members on the road to the euro and the strategies and timing of euro adoption. It investigates the real/nominal convergence nexus from the perspective of euro-area entry, arguing that the initial level of economic development, as measured by per capita income, and the speed of real convergence have a bearing on the strategies to follow and the timing of entry into the euro area, for the lower per capita income is, the larger is the price-level gap to close and the greater the danger of credit booms and overheating. It is argued argue that inflation targeting with floating rates is better suited than hard pegs to managing the price-level catch-up process. A suggestion is made for modifying the Maastricht inflation criterion, which as currently defined has lost its economic logic.

The role of enduring involvement in the relationship between reference price and price acceptance in the context of multichannel choice

Understanding online price acceptance and its determining factors can be essential if the companies try to manage different type of channels. The paper aimed to reveal the role of enduring involvement in price acceptance in a multichannel (online and offline) context. The study revealed that the hedonic value of shopping can increase the negative intention of price acceptance in the online channel, but also explored that for the segment without shopping motivations a similar price level can be applied both in the online and in the offline environment.

Kamatlábak és árszint kis, nyitott gazdaságban = Interest rates and price levels in a small open economy

A tanulmány azt vizsgálja, hogy a különböző kamatlábaknak milyen hatásai vannak az árszintre, illetve a nominális árakra egy nyitott elsősorban kis, nyitott gazdaságban szabad tőkeáramlás mellett. Míg a zárt gazdaságban csupán a nominális és reálkamatláb megkülönböztetése a lényeges, nyitott gazdaságban a kamatlábak vizsgálatakor meg kell fontolnunk a kamatlábparitás kérdését is. Tisztáznunk kell a reálkamatláb összetevőit, amelyben fontos szerepet kap mind az árfolyam-begyűrűzés (pass-through), mind pedig a kockázati prémium mértéke. A kamatlábhatások vizsgálatakor először azt a mechanizmust elemezzük, amely által a kamatláb befolyásolja a tartós jószágok költségét (explicit vagy implicit bérleti díját). Másodszor az exportszektor termelési döntése és a hazai kamatláb viszonyára vonatkozó mechanizmust vizsgáljuk. Belátjuk, hogy az exportáló szektor döntései függetlenek lehetnek a belföldi kamatlábaktól. Harmadszor bizonyos árazási viselkedéseket tanulmányozunk. Bebizonyítjuk, hogy a kamatláb olyan növelése, ami nem változtat a jelenlegi árfolyamon, árszintnövelő az importőr ország számára. Megfogalmazható az a nézet, hogy ha van is a kamatlábaknak keresleti hatása a zárt gazdaságban, a kis, nyitott gazdaságban ez vélhetőleg sokkal gyengébb. _____ The study examines what effects various interest rates have on the price level and nomi-nal prices in an open (primarily small) economy with free flows of capital. A closed economy calls for a distinction only between nominal and real rates of interest, but in an open economy, questions of interest-rate parity have to be considered as well. It is nec-essary to clarify the factors behind the real interest rate important for price-level pass-through and for the scale of risk premium. Analysis of interest-rate effects begins with the mechanism whereby the interest rate influences the cost of fixed assets (explicit or implicit rents). Secondly, the mechanism behind the relation of export-sector production decisions and domestic interest rates is examined. It emerges that decisions of the export sector are independent of domestic interest rates. Thirdly, certain types of pricing behav-iour are studied. It is shown that a rise in the interest rate that does not alter the present exchange rate is a price-raising factor for the importing country. It can be assumed that if the interest rate has a demand effect in a closed economy, this will presumably be much weaker in a small open economy.

Índices de preço para o transporte de cargas: o caso da soja

Esta pesquisa objetivou analisar metodologias para elaboração de índices de preços para o transporte de cargas. O estudo das principais fórmulas da Teoria Econômica culminou com a conclusão que os Índices de Fisher e Walsh são aqueles capazes de atender ao maior número de preceitos lógicos, estatísticos e econômicos. Em seguida, surgem os índices geométricos de Törnqvist, Vartia e Theil. Os Índices de Laspeyres e Paasche, apesar de apresentarem algumas limitações, acabam sendo amplamente utilizados, graças a maior capacidade de operacionalização. A pesquisa apresentou um estudo de caso para o transporte da soja em grão. Foram realizados quatro tratamentos. Obteve-se a variação acumulada no nível geral de preços para o transporte rodoviário de soja no Brasil, no período entre fevereiro de 1998 e março de 2002. De acordo com os resultados, essa variação acumulada teria sido de 76%.

Macroeconomic policy in an output-expenditure model

This paper proposes an alternative framework for examining the international macroeconomic impact of domestic monetary and fiscal policies and focuses on the distinction between national spending and national production and the reactive behavior of foreign investors to changing external account balances. It demonstrates that under a floating exchange rate regime, monetary and fiscal policies can affect aggregate expenditure and output quite differently, with important implications for the behavior of the exchange rate, the current account balance, and national income in the short run, as well as the economy's price level in the long run. In particular, this paper predicts that expansionary monetary and fiscal policies tend to depreciate the currency and only temporarily raise gross domestic product and the current account surplus, although permanently raise the domestic price level. This is a revised version of a paper presented at the Forty-Ninth International Atlantic Economic Conference, March 14–21, 2000, Munich, Germany.

Imagem percebida de Lisboa como destino turístico por parte do mercado finlandês

RESUMO: O presente estudo pretende analisar a imagem percebida de Lisboa como destino turístico por parte do mercado finlandês, considerando as seguintes perguntas de partida: a) quais os elementos que caracterizam a imagem percebida de Lisboa como destino turístico por parte dos turistas finlandeses; b) quais os factores com maior predominância na imagem percebida e c) qual o perfil do turista finlandês que visita Lisboa. Para atingir os objectivos deste estudo, foi realizado um inquérito por questionário a turistas finlandeses em Lisboa, de forma autoministrada, nos meses de Maio, Junho, Setembro e Outubro de 2008, no último dia da sua estada. Para além de questões que visaram compreender a imagem percebida de Lisboa como destino turístico, por parte dos inquiridos, o questionário incluiu perguntas sobre as suas características sócio-demográficas. Os resultados confirmaram as três componentes da imagem propostas no modelo de Echtner e Ritchie: psicológica-funcional, atributos-holística e comum-única. Os mesmos permitem também concluir que os inquiridos valorizam principalmente as características históricas e estéticas da cidade, como também o bom clima e a simpatia da população local. Por sua vez, os aspectos relativos à programação, eventos, diversão nocturna, interacção com a população local e preços, são os factores menos associados à cidade pelos inquiridos. As qualidades e as características únicas de Lisboa foram destacadas, tendo-se também verificado um elevado grau de satisfação com a visita à cidade e um vasto leque de sugestões dos inquiridos para melhorar Lisboa como destino turístico. ABSTRACT: This study aims to analyze the perceived image of Lisbon as a tourist destination by the Finnish market, considering the following questions: a) what are the elements that characterize the perceived image of Lisbon as a tourist destination by Finnish tourists b ) what features/attributes are most predominant in the perceived image c) what is the sociodemographic profile of the Finnish tourist who visits Lisbon. Data was collected in May, June September and October 2008. The questions were used seeking to identify the image of Lisbon of the respondents as a tourist destination, as well as the socio-demographic characteristics of the tourists. The results identified the three components of the image model proposed by Ritchie and Echtner: psychological-functional, attributes-holistic and commonunique. The results also allowed to conclude that respondents identify and value particularly historical and aesthetic characteristics, as well as the good weather and the friendliness of the local people whereas factors of the city such as the events, the nightlife, the interaction with the local population and the price level, didn’t particularly convinced the respondents. The qualities and the unique characteristics of Lisbon were highlighted, having also noticed a high degree of satisfaction on the visit to the city and a wide range of suggestions obtained from respondents to improve Lisbon as a tourist destination. TIIVISTELMÄ: Perehdyin tutkielmassani suomalaisten kokemusperäiseen mielikuvaan Lissabonista matkakohteena. Tutkimuksen tavoitteena oli selvittää, millaisia kokemuksia ja mielikuvia suomalaisilla matkailijoilla on Lissabonista matkakohteena. Tutkimus pyrki vastaamaan kolmeen kysymykseen: a) mitkä tekijät luonnehtivat suomalaisten matkailijoiden kokemusperäistä mielikuvaa Lissabonista matkakohteena, b) mitkä ominaisuudet hallitsevat kyseistä mielikuvaa sekä c) mihin sukupuoli-, ikä-, koulutus- ja yhteiskuntaluokkaan Lissabonissa vierailevat suomalaiset matkailijat kuuluivat. Tiedot kerättiin touko-, kesä-, syys- ja lokakuussa 2008. Kyselyssä keskityttiin pääosin matkailijoiden kokemuksiin ja mielikuviin Lissabonista sekä matkan ominaisuuksiin ja matkailijoiden matkakohdetta koskeviin tietoihin. Lisäksi matkailijoita pyydettiin kirjoittamaan, miten Lissabonin asemaa matkakohteena voitaisiin parantaa. Alkuperäisen olettamuksen mukaan tulokset osoittivat Echtnerin ja Richien ehdottaman mallin mukaisesti mielikuvien muodostuvan kolmesta osatekijästä: toiminnallinen-psykologinen, attribuutti-kokonaisvaltainen ja yleinenainutlaatuinen. Tulokset osoittivat vastaajien yhtyvän mielikuvissaan ensisijaisesti kaupungin toiminnallisiin osatekijöihin. Sen sijaan kaupungin tapahtumiin ja yöelämään tai vuorovaikutukseen paikallisten kanssa taikka hintatasoon liittyviä ominaisuuksia ei koettu erityisen merkittäviksi. Vastauksista tulivat selvästi esille Lissabonin vetovoimatekijät ja ainutlaatuiset ominaisuudet matkakohteena. Lisäksi vastaukset osoittivat matkailijoiden olleen suurimmaksi osaksi erittäin tyytyväisiä vierailuunsa kaupungissa. Vastauksiin sisältyi myös useita ehdotuksia Lissabonin aseman parantamiseksi matkailukohteena.

Estudo comparativo de soluções de materiais poliméricos em redes prediais de água e esgotos

O objetivo deste trabalho é estudar as tubagens de polímeros aplicadas nas redes prediais de águas e esgotos. A utilização deste tipo de material tem vindo a aumentar, mas o conhecimento por parte de projetistas e instaladores não tem vindo a acompanhar o ritmo de crescimento. Esta análise irá permitir um maior conhecimento dos materiais disponíveis e das suas caraterísticas próprias, o que induz a uma escolha acertada e a uma instalação adequada. No início do trabalho clarificou-se o significado e a origem dos polímeros, contando a sua história. Visitou-se a fábrica de tubos Fopil para pesquisar o processamento de polímeros. Explicou-se o fabrico de polímeros, que varia de acordo com as propriedades e aplicações desejadas. Os tubos poliméricos disponíveis no mercado para abastecimento de águas e esgotos foram analisados em relação às suas caraterísticas, vantagens e desvantagens e ligações disponíveis. Existem cuidados a ter no transporte, armazenamento e manuseamento dos tubos. Após a análise das caraterísticas técnicas, fez-se o estudo económico para os tubos existentes no mercado. Para isso foi considerado o abastecimento a um edifício multifamiliar com seis apartamentos. O projetista deve estar sempre informado, quer a nível tecnológico, quer a nível económico, para assim poder fazer a escolha mais acertada a nível de qualidade e a nível de preço. Ao realizar este estudo concluiu-se que nas instalações de redes de abastecimento de águas, o PB é o que tem o preço mais atrativo e tem caraterísticas ótimas. O PE-X tem o preço mais elevado, mas a sua qualidade não é proporcional ao seu preço. Nas instalações de redes de esgotos o material mais económico é o PP, que é o que apresenta as melhores caraterísticas.

Rebound Effects from Increased Efficiency in the Use of Energy by UK Households

In this paper, we use CGE modelling techniques to identify the impact on energy use of an improvement in energy efficiency in the household sector. The main findings are that 1) when the price of energy is measured in natural units, the increase in efficiency yields only to a modification of tastes, changing as a result, the composition of household consumption; 2) when households internalize efficiency, the improvement in energy efficiency reduces the price of energy in efficiency units, providing a source of improved competitiveness as the nominal wage and the price level both fall; 3) the short-run rebound can be greater than the long run rebound if the household demand elasticity is the same for both time frames, however, the short run rebound is always lower than in the long-run if the demand for energy is relatively more elastic in the long-run; 4) the introduction of habit formation changes the composition of household consumption, modifying the magnitude of the household rebound only in the short-run. In this period, household and economy wide rebound are lowest for external habit formation and highest when consumers’ preferences are defined using a conventional utility function.