Dynamic Smile Analysis : Changes with Age

Introduction: The objective of this study was to define age-related changes in the human smile. The areas of interest were: upper lip length at smile and repose, upper lip thickness at smile and repose, maxillary incisal display at smile, interlabial gap height at smile, smile index, percent buccal corridors, intercommissural width at rest, smile height, and smile arc. A secondary objective was to study the perioral changes from rest to smile and compare them on the basis of age. Materials and Method: Video equipment was used to capture video for 261 subjects. Two frames for each subject were selected; one frame representing the lips and rest and the second representing the widest smile. After excluding 40 subjects the data for the remaining 221 subjects was analyzed. Results: There was a decrease of 1.5 to 2 mm in the maxillary incisor display during smile, with increase in age. Smile index significantly increased with increase in age. Most (78%) subjects displayed an average smile height. No subjects in the 50 and over age group displayed a high smile while no subjects in the 15-19 year old age group presented with a low smile. All the dynamic measures indicated there was a pattern of decreasing change from rest to smile especially evident after the 30-39 year old age group. Conclusions: This study helps to establish age related dynamic norms. As the person ages the smile gets narrower vertically and wider transversely. The dynamic measures indicate that the muscles' ability to create a smile decreases with increasing age.

Seasonal Dynamic Factor Analysis and Bootstrap Inference: Application to Electricity Market Forecasting

In this work, we propose the Seasonal Dynamic Factor Analysis (SeaDFA), an extension of Nonstationary Dynamic Factor Analysis, through which one can deal with dimensionality reduction in vectors of time series in such a way that both common and specific components are extracted. Furthermore, common factors are able to capture not only regular dynamics (stationary or not) but also seasonal ones, by means of the common factors following a multiplicative seasonal VARIMA(p, d, q) × (P, D, Q)s model. Additionally, a bootstrap procedure that does not need a backward representation of the model is proposed to be able to make inference for all the parameters in the model. A bootstrap scheme developed for forecasting includes uncertainty due to parameter estimation, allowing enhanced coverage of forecasting intervals. A challenging application is provided. The new proposed model and a bootstrap scheme are applied to an innovative subject in electricity markets: the computation of long-term point forecasts and prediction intervals of electricity prices. Several appendices with technical details, an illustrative example, and an additional table are available online as Supplementary Materials.

Dynamic stiffness analysis of bridge abutments

Strong motion records obtained in instrumented short-span bridges show the importance of the abutments in the dynamic response of the structure. Existing models study the pier foundation influence but not the abutment performance. This work proposes two and three dimensional boundary element models in the frequency domain and studies the dimensionless dynamic stiffness of standard bridge abutments.

Static and Dynamic Experimental Analysis of the Galloping Stability of Porous H-Section Beams

The phenomenon of self-induced vibrations of prismatic beams in a cross-flow has been studied for decades, but it is still of great interest due to their important effects in many different industrial applications. This paper presents the experimental study developed on a prismatic beam with H-section.The aim of this analysis is to add some additional insight into the behaviour of the flow around this type of bodies, in order to reduce galloping and even to avoid it. The influence of some relevant geometrical parameters that define the H-section on the translational galloping behaviour of these beams has been analysed. Wind loads coefficients have been measured through static wind tunnel tests and the Den Hartog criterion applied to elucidate the influence of geometrical parameters on the galloping properties of the bodies under consideration.These results have been completed with surface pressure distribution measurements and, besides, dynamic tests have been also performed to verify the static criterion. Finally, the morphology of the flow past the tested bodies has been visualised by using smoke visualization techniques. Since the rectangular section beam is a limiting case of the H-section configuration, the results here obtained are compared with the ones published in the literature concerning rectangular configurations; the agreement is satisfactory.

Characterizing a tropical deforestation wave: a dynamic spatial analysis of a deforestation hotspot in the Colombian Amazon

Tropical deforestation is the major contemporary threat to global biodiversity, because a diminishing extent of tropical forests supports the majority of the Earth's biodiversity. Forest clearing is often spatially concentrated in regions where human land use pressures, either planned or unplanned, increase the likelihood of deforestation. However, it is not a random process, but often moves in waves originating from settled areas. We investigate the spatial dynamics of land cover change in a tropical deforestation hotspot in the Colombian Amazon. We apply a forest cover zoning approach which permitted: calculation of colonization speed; comparative spatial analysis of patterns of deforestation and regeneration; analysis of spatial patterns of mature and recently regenerated forests; and the identification of local-level hotspots experiencing the fastest deforestation or regeneration. The colonization frontline moved at an average of 0.84 km yr(-1) from 1989 to 2002, resulting in the clearing of 3400 ha yr(-1) of forests beyond the 90% forest cover line. The dynamics of forest clearing varied across the colonization front according to the amount of forest in the landscape, but was spatially concentrated in well-defined 'local hotspots' of deforestation and forest regeneration. Behind the deforestation front, the transformed landscape mosaic is composed of cropping and grazing lands interspersed with mature forest fragments and patches of recently regenerated forests. We discuss the implications of the patterns of forest loss and fragmentation for biodiversity conservation within a framework of dynamic conservation planning.

RSA-Grid: A grid computing based framework for power system reliability and security analysis

Grid computing is an emerging technology for providing the high performance computing capability and collaboration mechanism for solving the collaborated and complex problems while using the existing resources. In this paper, a grid computing based framework is proposed for the probabilistic based power system reliability and security analysis. The suggested name of this computing grid is Reliability and Security Grid (RSA-Grid). Then the architecture of this grid is presented. A prototype system has been built for further development of grid-based services for power systems reliability and security assessment based on probabilistic techniques, which require high performance computing and large amount of memory. Preliminary results based on prototype of this grid show that RSA-Grid can provide the comprehensive assessment results for real power systems efficiently and economically.

Seasonal dynamic pattern analysis in service of climate change research. A methodical case-study - monitoring and simulation based on an aquatic insect community

Our aim was to approach an important and well-investigable phenomenon – connected to a relatively simple but real field situation – in such a way, that the results of field observations could be directly comparable with the predictions of a simulation model-system which uses a simple mathematical apparatus and to simultaneously gain such a hypothesis-system, which creates the theoretical opportunity for a later experimental series of studies. As a phenomenon of the study, we chose the seasonal coenological changes of aquatic and semiaquatic Heteroptera community. Based on the observed data, we developed such an ecological model-system, which is suitable for generating realistic patterns highly resembling to the observed temporal patterns, and by the help of which predictions can be given to alternative situations of climatic circumstances not experienced before (e.g. climate changes), and furthermore; which can simulate experimental circumstances. The stable coenological state-plane, which was constructed based on the principle of indirect ordination is suitable for unified handling of data series of monitoring and simulation, and also fits for their comparison. On the state-plane, such deviations of empirical and model-generated data can be observed and analysed, which could otherwise remain hidden.

Dynamic safety analysis of managed pressure drilling operations

The exploration and development of oil and gas reserves located in harsh offshore environments are characterized with high risk. Some of these reserves would be uneconomical if produced using conventional drilling technology due to increased drilling problems and prolonged non-productive time. Seeking new ways to reduce drilling cost and minimize risks has led to the development of Managed Pressure Drilling techniques. Managed pressure drilling methods address the drawbacks of conventional overbalanced and underbalanced drilling techniques. As managed pressure drilling techniques are evolving, there are many unanswered questions related to safety and operating pressure regimes. Quantitative risk assessment techniques are often used to answer these questions. Quantitative risk assessment is conducted for the various stages of drilling operations – drilling ahead, tripping operation, casing and cementing. A diagnostic model for analyzing the rotating control device, the main component of managed pressure drilling techniques, is also studied. The logic concept of Noisy-OR is explored to capture the unique relationship between casing and cementing operations in leading to well integrity failure as well as its usage to model the critical components of constant bottom-hole pressure drilling technique of managed pressure drilling during tripping operation. Relevant safety functions and inherent safety principles are utilized to improve well integrity operations. Loss function modelling approach to enable dynamic consequence analysis is adopted to study blowout risk for real-time decision making. The aggregation of the blowout loss categories, comprising: production, asset, human health, environmental response and reputation losses leads to risk estimation using dynamically determined probability of occurrence. Lastly, various sub-models developed for the stages/sub-operations of drilling operations and the consequence modelling approach are integrated for a holistic risk analysis of drilling operations.

Bifurcation and dynamic response analysis of a rotating blade excited by upstream vortices

Acknowledgements The authors acknowledge the projects supported by the National Basic Research Program of China (973 Project)(No. 2015CB057405) and the National Natural Science Foundation of China (No. 11372082) and the State Scholarship Fund of CSC. DW thanks for the hospitality of the University of Aberdeen.

Outer rotor mechanical and dynamic performance analysis for high-speed machine

Due to high-speed rotation, the problems about rotor mechanics and dynamics for outer rotor high-speed machine are more serious than conventional ones, in view of above problems the mechanical and dynamics analysis for an outer rotor high-speed permanent magnet claw pole motor are carried out. The rotor stress analytical calculation model was derived, then the stress distribution is calculated by finite element method also, which is coincided with that calculated by analytical model. In addition, the stress distribution of outer rotor yoke and PMs considering centrifugal force and temperature effect has been calculated, some influence factors on rotor stress distribution have been analyzed such as pole-arc coefficient and speed. The rotor natural frequency and critical speed were calculated by vibration mode analysis, and its dynamics characteristics influenced by gyroscope effect were analyzed based on Campbell diagram. Based on the analysis results above an outer rotor permanent magnet high-speed claw pole motor is design and verified.

STPA-SafeSec: Safety and Security Analysis for Cyber-Physical Systems

Cyber-physical systems tightly integrate physical processes and information and communication technologies. As today’s critical infrastructures, e.g., the power grid or water distribution networks, are complex cyber-physical systems, ensuring their safety and security becomes of paramount importance. Traditional safety analysis methods, such as HAZOP, are ill-suited to assess these systems. Furthermore, cybersecurity vulnerabilities are often not considered critical, because their effects on the physical processes are not fully understood. In this work, we present STPA-SafeSec, a novel analysis methodology for both safety and security. Its results show the dependencies between cybersecurity vulnerabilities and system safety. Using this information, the most effective mitigation strategies to ensure safety and security of the system can be readily identified. We apply STPA-SafeSec to a use case in the power grid domain, and highlight its benefits.