Why the ‘Rest’ doesn’t need foreign finance

The Rest will be able to catch up and grow faster than the West only if it goes against a “received truth”, namely that capital-rich countries should transfer their capital to capital-poor countries. This intuitive truth is the mantra that the West cites to justify its occupation of the markets of developing countries with its finance and its multinationals. Classical Developmentalism successfully criticized the unequal exchange involved in trade liberalization, but it didn’t succeed in criticizing foreign finance. This task has been recently achieved by New Developmentalism and its developmental macroeconomics, which shows that countries will invest and grow more if they don’t run current account deficits, even when these deficits are financed by foreign direct investment

International finance and Caribbean development

Includes bibliography

The Drivers of Current Account Surplus in Germany and the Politics of Rebalancing in the Eurozone. EU Centre, Singapore Working Paper No. 24, April 2015

Current account deficits have caught the public’s attention as they have contributed to the European debt crisis. However, surpluses also constitute an issue as a deficit in any country must be financed through a surplus in another country. In 2013, Germany, now the world’s largest surplus economy, registered a record high US$273 billion surplus. This paper looks at what accounts for Germany’s surplus, revealing that the major driving factors include strong global demand for quality German exports, domestic wage restraint, an undervalued single currency, high domestic savings rate and interest rate convergence in the euro area. This paper echoes the US Treasury’s view that a persistent German surplus makes it harder for the eurozone as a whole and the southern peripheral economies in particular to recover from the current financial crisis by imposing a Europe-wide “deflationary bias” through pushing up the exchange rate of the euro, exporting feeble German inflation and projecting its ultra-tight macroeconomic policies onto crisis economies. This paper contends that Germany’s trade surplus is likely to endure as Germany and other eurozone countries uphold diverging views on the nature of the surplus engage in a blame-game amidst a sluggish rebalancing process. Prizing the surplus as a reflection of hard work and economic competitiveness, German authorities urge their southern eurozone colleagues to undertake bold structural reforms to correct the imbalance, while the hand-tied governments in crisis-stricken economies call on Germany to do its “homework” by boosting German demands for European goods and services.

The international impact of productivity shocks

Even though many studies have confirmed the Feldstein-Horioka (1980) finding that savings and investment rates are highly correlated, there is no consensus on the major reason for this correlation. The purpose of this dissertation is to develop theoretical models and calibrate and simulate these to compare their implications to explain the observed time-series comovement between savings and investment in an attempt to show that this high correlation may stem from technological shocks.^ The dissertation is comprised of three studies. The first two studies construct overlapping-generations, two-economy models of saving and investment under conditions of perfect international capital mobility. The second study differs from the first by endogenizing the labor supply. Employing simulations, the models are used to generate time-series for savings and investment. These are then compared with the actual data for specific economies. The models show that productivity shocks produce a high correlation between savings and investment. Further, while the model with exogenous labor supply displays monotonic adjustment, the economy with endogenous labor supply adjusts cyclically.^ The third model, on the other hand, constructs a general equilibrium model for a small open economy. The study is based on two important elements: adjustment costs in investment and endogenous, recursive time preferences. Again, the simulation results show that the model generates, at least in a significant part of the adjustment path, a positive correlation between domestic savings and investment in response to a supply shock. ^

Financiamento do investimento em países das Américas: Uma análise de dados em painel 1972- 2008

O presente artigo tem por objetivo analisar empiricamente os determinantes do financiamento do investimento nos países das Américas no período de 1972-2008, tendo como base teórica os modelos de hiatos nas versões de Chenery e Bruno (1962); Bacha (1982, 1989 e 1990) e Taylor (1994). Com este intuito, realiza-se uma estimação com o modelo de dados em painel na versão padrão com efeitos fixos. As variáveis explicativas de cada país seguem a abordagem de Amadeo e Giambiagi (1990). São elas: os coeficientes de poupança interna e de importação e as exportações reais. Os resultados das estimações corroboram com a concepção teórica do modelo de hiatos, ou seja, que países em desenvolvimento enfrentam limitações de poupança interna e incapacidade de importar bens intensivos em capital, fatores os quais restringem o nível de investimento dessas economias.

Still the century of government savings banks? The Caixa Econômica Federal

This article explores general concerns about government banking, social inclusion, and democracy through case study of the Brazilian federal government savings bank (Caixa Econômica Federal). Review of government savings banks in Brazilian history suggests that these institutions have been at the center of domestic political economy, expanding and contracting under a variety of political regimes and economic conditions. Since capitalization to meet central bank and Basel Accord guidelines in 2001, the Caixa has attempted to modernize, continue to serve as agent for government policies, and expand both popular credit and savings and investment banking activities.

A DYNAMIC FRAMEWORK FOR THE RELATIONS BETWEEN FOREIGN EXCHANGE RATES, SAVINGS AND INVESTMENTS

The Meese-Rogoff forecasting puzzle states that foreign exchange (FX) rates are unpredictable. Since one country’s macroeconomic conditions could affect the price of its national currency, we study the dynamic relations between the FX rates and some macroeconomic accounts. Our research tests whether the predictability of the FX rates could be improved through the advanced econometrics. Improving the predictability of the FX rates has important implications for various groups including investors, business entities and the government. The present thesis examines the dynamic relations between the FX rates, savings and investments for a sample of 25 countries from the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development. We apply quarterly data of FX rates, macroeconomic indices and accounts including the savings and the investments over three decades. Through preliminary Augmented Dickey-Fuller unit root tests and Johansen cointegration tests, we found that the savings rate and the investment rate are cointegrated with the vector (1,-1). This result is consistent with many previous studies on the savings-investment relations and therefore confirms the validity of the Feldstein-Horioka puzzle. Because of the special cointegrating relation between the savings rate and investment rate, we introduce the savings-investment rate differential (SID). Investigating each country through a vector autoregression (VAR) model, we observe extremely insignificant coefficient estimates of the historical SIDs upon the present FX rates. We also report similar findings through the panel VAR approach. We thus conclude that the historical SIDs are useless in forecasting the FX rate. Nonetheless, the coefficients of the past FX rates upon the current SIDs for both the country-specific and the panel VAR models are statistically significant. Therefore, we conclude that the historical FX rates can conversely predict the SID to some degree. Specifically, depreciation in the domestic currency would cause the increase in the SID.

Savings in Latin America after the mid 1990s: determinants, constraints and policies

Includes bibliography

Are Germans wasting their savings abroad? CEPS Commentary, 7 April 2016

Germany is running a current account surplus of about 8% of GDP, which means that about one-third of all German savings (equal to 24% of GDP) has to be invested abroad every year. It has become by now almost a cliché that these huge excess savings are being wasted abroad. But this is a popular misconception based on the divergence between the available data on the (cumulated) current account balance (cCAB) of Germany and its net international investment position (NIIP). A closer look at the data actually suggests that the NIIP is probably not measured correctly and that the observed returns on German investment abroad have remained above most domestic returns.

Annual statement exhibiting the condition of the state banks, savings banks, institutions for savings, and trust companies.

Includes also, 1902-1907 statements of building and loan associations, 1901-1906 (Domestic and foreign building and loan associations, 1901-1904; Domestic building and loan associations, 1905-1906)

A study in the application of domestic solar assisted heat pumps for heating and cooling

In the present work, the more important parameters of the heat pump system and of solar assisted heat pump systems were analysed in a quantitative way. Ideal and real Rankine cycles applied to the heat pump, with and without subcooling and superheating were studied using practical recommended values for their thermodynamics parameters. Comparative characteristics of refrigerants here analysed looking for their applicability in heat pumps for domestic heating and their effect in the performance of the system. Curves for the variation of the coefficient of performance as a function of condensing and evaporating temperatures were prepared for R12. Air, water and earth as low-grade heat sources and basic heat pump design factors for integrated heat pumps and thermal stores and for solar assisted heat pump-series, parallel and dual-systems were studied. The analysis of the relative performance of these systems demonstrated that the dual system presents advantages in domestic applications. An account of energy requirements for space and hater heating in the domestic sector in the O.K. is presented. The expected primary energy savings by using heat pumps to provide for the heating demand of the domestic sector was found to be of the order of 7%. The availability of solar energy in the U.K. climatic conditions and the characteristics of the solar radiation here studied. Tables and graphical representations in order to calculate the incident solar radiation over a tilted roof were prepared and are given in this study in section IV. In order to analyse and calculate the heating load for the system, new mathematical and graphical relations were developed in section V. A domestic space and water heating system is described and studied. It comprises three main components: a solar radiation absorber, the normal roof of a house, a split heat pump and a thermal store. A mathematical study of the heat exchange characteristics in the roof structure was done. This permits to evaluate the energy collected by the roof acting as a radiation absorber and its efficiency. An indication of the relative contributions from the three low-grade sources: ambient air, solar boost and heat loss from the house to the roof space during operation is given in section VI, together with the average seasonal performance and the energy saving for a prototype system tested at the University of Aston. The seasonal performance as found to be 2.6 and the energy savings by using the system studied 61%. A new store configuration to reduce wasted heat losses is also discussed in section VI.

A micro gas turbines for UK domestic combined heat and power

Various micro-radial compressor configurations were investigated using one-dimensional meanline and computational fluid dynamics (CFD) techniques for use in a micro gas turbine (MGT) domestic combined heat and power (DCHP) application. Blade backsweep, shaft speed, and blade height were varied at a constant pressure ratio. Shaft speeds were limited to 220 000 r/min, to enable the use of a turbocharger bearing platform. Off-design compressor performance was established and used to determine the MGT performance envelope; this in turn was used to assess potential cost and environmental savings in a heat-led DCHP operating scenario within the target market of a detached family home. A low target-stage pressure ratio provided an opportunity to reduce diffusion within the impeller. Critically for DCHP, this produced very regular flow, which improved impeller performance for a wider operating envelope. The best performing impeller was a low-speed, 170 000 r/min, low-backsweep, 15° configuration producing 71.76 per cent stage efficiency at a pressure ratio of 2.20. This produced an MGT design point system efficiency of 14.85 per cent at 993 W, matching prime movers in the latest commercial DCHP units. Cost and CO2 savings were 10.7 per cent and 6.3 per cent, respectively, for annual power demands of 17.4 MWht and 6.1 MWhe compared to a standard condensing boiler (with grid) installation. The maximum cost saving (on design point) was 14.2 per cent for annual power demands of 22.62 MWht and 6.1 MWhe corresponding to an 8.1 per cent CO2 saving. When sizing, maximum savings were found with larger heat demands. When sized, maximum savings could be made by encouraging more electricity export either by reducing household electricity consumption or by increasing machine efficiency.

A Sustainable Century? Genuine Savings in developing and developed countries, 1900-2000

This chapter traces the long-run development of Genuine Savings (GS) using a panel of eleven countries during the twentieth century. This panel covers a number of developed countries (Great Britain, Germany, Switzerland, France, the US, and Australia) as well as a set of resource-abundant countries in Latin America (Argentina, Brazil, Chile, Colombia, and Mexico). These countries represent approximately 50 percent of the world’s output in terms of Gross Domestic Product (GDP) by 1950, and include large economies and small open economies, and resource-rich and resource-scarce countries, thus allowing us to compare their historical experiences. Components of GS considered include physical and human capital as well as resource extraction and pollution damages. Generally, we find evidence of positive GS over the course of the twentieth century, although the two World Wars and the Great Depression left considerable marks. Also, we found striking differences between Latin American and developed countries when Total Factor Productivity (TFP) is included; this could be a signal of natural resource curse or technological gaps unnoticed in previous works.

Occurrence and molecular characterization of Cryptosporidium spp. isolated from domestic animals in a rural area surrounding Atlantic dry forest fragments in Teodoro Sampaio municipality, State of São Paulo, Brazil

The aim of this study was to assess the occurrence of Cryptosporidium in domestic animals in rural properties surrounding rain forest fragments within the municipality of Teodoro Sampaio, southeastern Brazil. Conventional sucrose flotation method followed by molecular characterization of the parasites by sequencing PCR products amplified from SSU rRNA gene were used. Stool samples were collected from domestic animals raised as pets and livestock in all rural properties surrounding three forest fragments. Samples from cattle (197), equine (63), pigs (25), sheep (11), and dogs (28) were collected from 98 rural properties. The frequency of occurrence of Cryptosporidium within each animal species was 3.0% (6/197) among cattle and 10.7% (3/28) among dogs. Cryptosporidium was not detected in stool samples from equine, sheep, and pigs. All sequences obtained from the six samples of calves showed molecular identity with Cryptosporidium andersoni while all sequences from dog samples were similar to C. canis. The frequency of occurrence of Cryptosporidium in these domestic animal species was low. The absence of C. parvum in the present study suggests that the zoonotic cycle of cryptosporidiosis may not be relevant in the region studied. The presence of Cryptosporidium species seldom described in humans may be, otherwise, important for the wild fauna as these animals are a source of infection and dissemination of this protozoan to other animal species. The impact and magnitude of infection by C. andersoni in wild ruminants and C. canis in wild canids have to be assessed in future studies to better understand the actual importance of these species in this region.

Exposure of free-ranging wild carnivores, horses and domestic dogs to Leptospira spp in the northern Pantanal, Brazil

Leptospirosis is a zoonotic disease affecting most mammals and is distributed throughout the world. Several species of domestic and wild animals may act as reservoirs for this disease. The purpose of this study was to assess the exposure of free-ranging wild carnivores, horses and domestic dogs on a private reserve located in the northern Pantanal (Brazil) and the surrounding areas to Leptospira spp from 2002-2006, 75 free-ranging wild carnivores were captured in the Pantanal and serum samples were collected. In addition, samples from 103 domestic dogs and 23 horses in the region were collected. Serum samples were tested for the presence of Leptospira antibodies using the microscopic agglutination test. Thirty-two wild carnivores (42.7%) were considered positive with titres > 100, and 18 domestic dogs (17.5%) and 20 horses (74.1%) were also found to be positive. Our study showed that horses, dogs and several species of free-ranging wild carnivores have been exposed to Leptospira spp in the Pantanal, suggesting that the peculiar characteristics of this biome, such as high temperatures and an extended period of flooding, may favour bacterial persistence and transmission. In this region, wild carnivores and horses seem to be important hosts for the epidemiology of Leptospira species.