Can Roads Be Used as Transects for Primate Population Surveys?

Line transect distance sampling (LTDS) can be applied to either trails or roads. However, it is likely that sampling along roads might result in biased density estimates. In this paper, we compared the results obtained with LTDS applied on trails and roads for two primate species (Callithrix penicillata and Callicebus nigrifrons) to clarify whether roads are appropriate transects to estimate densities. We performed standard LTDS surveys in two nature reserves in south-eastern Brazil. Effective strip width and population density were different between trails and roads for C. penicillata, but not for C. nigrifrons. The results suggest that roads are not appropriate for use as transects in primate surveys, at least for some species. Further work is required to fully understand this issue, but in the meantime we recommend that researchers avoid using roads as transects or treat roads and trails as covariates when sampling on roads is unavoidable. Copyright (C) 2012 S. Karger AG, Basel

Distribuzione spazio-temporale di Stenella coeruleoalba (Meyen, 1833) e Tursiops truncatus (Montagu, 1821) nel Golfo di Taranto

Il Golfo di Taranto è una baia storica all’interno del Mar Ionio Settentrionale, Mar Mediterraneo Orientale. Sebbene il Mar Mediterraneo rappresenti meno dell’1% della superficie oceanica, presenta un alto livello di diversità biologica e si inserisce tra i primi 25 Biodiversity Hot Spot a livello globale. Esso purtroppo è anche uno dei bacini più antropizzati del mondo; tali pressioni mettono a serio rischio la conservazione di numerose specie, tra cui i Cetacei. Attualmente non sono presenti lavori riportanti dati di abbondanza dei Cetacei nel Golfo di Taranto: la mia ricerca vuole contribuire a colmare questo vuoto conoscitivo ed aggiungere nuove conoscenze sull’abbondanza dei Cetacei nel Mar Mediterraneo. Le aree di studio prese in esame si trovano nel Golfo di Taranto, sono contigue ed hanno la stessa superficie. Utilizzando il metodo del transetto lineare ed il software Distance 6.0 è stato possibile, raccogliere i dati di abbondanza dei delfinidi Stenella coeruleoalba e Truncatus truncatus ed analizzarli, ottenendo delle stime di abbondanza da confrontare con la serie storica disponibile (2009-2014). L’utilizzo del metodo del Distance Sampling, applicato per la prima volta nel Golfo di Taranto, è stato fondamentale perché ha permesso di colmare una lacuna conoscitiva sulla consistenza numerica associata alla nota presenza dei Cetacei nel Mar Ionio Settentrionale. I risultati ottenuti hanno reso possibile il confronto delle stime di abbondanza ottenute nel Golfo di Taranto con quelle del bacino ligure-corso-provenzale del Mediterraneo (Santuario Pelagos). Infatti è stato possibile rilevare che S. coeruleoalba presenta abbondanze generalmente inferiori ed un trend in diminuzione nel Santuario Pelagos, in netto contrasto con le maggiori abbondanze ed il trend in incremento evidenziato nel Golfo di Taranto e sintetizzato in questa tesi. Si evince, quindi la massima urgenza nell’implementare lo studio nel Golfo di Taranto, laddove la presenza di differenti specie di Cetacei e le stime di abbondanza di S. coeruleoalba e T. truncatus evidenziano la necessità di interventi di gestione finalizzati alla conservazione del patrimonio di diversità biologica del Mediterraneo.

Mise en place d'un état de référence et d'un plan de suivi écologique permanent des vestiges de forêt primaire de la station forestière de Mandraka

La forêt primaire de la région de Mandraka a été classée par le gouvernement en station forestière pour être conservée et restaurée. Suite à cette décision, tous prélèvements y sont interdits. Pourtant, aucune étude n’a évalué sa viabilité depuis cette restriction. Ce mémoire a ainsi comme objectif l’estimation de cette viabilité par le suivi permanent de l’état actuel de la forêt comprenant la végétation, la biodiversité et les pressions. La collecte de données y afférentes a eu recours à une étude bibliographique, à des enquêtes socio-économiques, à un inventaire des pressions, à un inventaire forestier et à une distance sampling. L’état a été évalué par l’analyse de ces composants. Cette recherche a fait ressortir que la forêt est soumise à des pressions anthropiques et biologiques : coupes illicites, collecte de Dioscorea sp., feux de forêt, envahissement des lianes. Ces pressions ont réduit la superficie de la forêt, modifié sa structure et celle de la faune : les régénérations naturelles sont abondantes, les arbres émergents et de diamètre supérieur à 40 cm sont rares, certaines essences floristiques et les lémuriens risquent de disparaître. Puis, les lianes remplacent successivement la forêt. Malgré ces pressions, la forêt a pu conserver certaines caractéristiques de son état originel : l’abondance élevée des tiges et la réduction de leur taille sur les crêtes, l’allure exponentielle de la structure totale, la présence des genres Tambourissa et Weinmannia. En outre, la forêt est encore riche en avifaune. Après analyse de viabilité, elle est classée comme un écosystème viable. Mais ces potentialités sont insuffisantes : il faut réduire les pressions et reconstituer la forêt pour une meilleure conservation de l’écosystème. A cet effet, la présente étude suggère l’aménagement, en premier lieu de la forêt par des interventions sylvicoles favorisant les régénérations comme l’enrichissement en placeaux, le délianage et en second lieu, celui de ses environs par des vulgarisations d’activités génératrices de revenu autres que l’exploitation des forêts naturelles telles l’agroforesterie, le reboisement, l’apiculture. Des patrouilles fréquentes et une délimitation de la station forestière s’avèrent aussi nécessaires.

Echolocation detections and digital video surveys provide reliable estimates of the relative density of harbour porpoises

Acknowledgements We would like to thank Erik Rexstad and Rob Williams for useful reviews of this manuscript. The collection of visual and acoustic data was funded by the UK Department of Energy & Climate Change, the Scottish Government, Collaborative Offshore Wind Research into the Environment (COWRIE) and Oil & Gas UK. Digital aerial surveys were funded by Moray Offshore Renewables Ltd and additional funding for analysis of the combined datasets was provided by Marine Scotland. Collaboration between the University of Aberdeen and Marine Scotland was supported by MarCRF. We thank colleagues at the University of Aberdeen, Moray First Marine, NERI, Hi-Def Aerial Surveying Ltd and Ravenair for essential support in the field, particularly Tim Barton, Bill Ruck, Rasmus Nielson and Dave Rutter. Thanks also to Andy Webb, David Borchers, Len Thomas, Kelly McLeod, David L. Miller, Dinara Sadykova and Thomas Cornulier for advice on survey design and statistical approache. Data Accessibility Data are available from the Dryad Digital Repository: http://dx.doi.org/10.5061/dryad.cf04g

Sea ice habitat characteristics and number of narwhal (Monodon monoceros) sightings in Disko Bay, West Greenland

There is a paucity of information on abundance, densities, and habitat selection of narwhals Monodon monoceros in the offshore pack ice of Baffin Bay, West Greenland, despite the critical importance of winter foraging regions and considerable sea ice declines in the past decades. We conducted a double-platform visual aerial survey over a narwhal wintering ground to obtain pack ice densities and develop the first fully corrected abundance estimate using point conditional mark-recapture distance sampling. Continuous video recording and digital images taken along the trackline allowed for in situ quantification of winter narwhal habitat and for the estimation of fine-scale narwhal habitat selection and habitat-specific sighting probabilities. Abundance at the surface was estimated at 3484 (coefficient of variation [CV] = 0.46) including whales missed by observers. The fully corrected abundance of narwhals was 18 044 (CV = 0.46), or approximately one-quarter of the entire Baffin Bay population. The narwhal wintering ground surveyed (~9500 km**2) had 2.4 to 3.2% open water based on estimates from satellite imagery (NASA Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer) and 1565 digital photographic images collected on the trackline. Thus, the ~18 000 narwhals had access to 233 km**2 of open water, resulting in an average density of ~77 narwhals/km**2 open water. Narwhal sighting probability near habitats with <10% or 10 to 50% open water was significantly higher than sighting probability in habitats with >50% open water, suggesting narwhals select optimal foraging areas in dense pack ice regardless of open water availability. This study provides the first quantitative ecological data on densities and habitat selection of narwhals in pack ice foraging regions that are rapidly being altered with climate change.

Data to Decision in a Dynamic Ocean: Robust Species Distribution Models and Spatial Decision Frameworks

Human use of the oceans is increasingly in conflict with conservation of endangered species. Methods for managing the spatial and temporal placement of industries such as military, fishing, transportation and offshore energy, have historically been post hoc; i.e. the time and place of human activity is often already determined before assessment of environmental impacts. In this dissertation, I build robust species distribution models in two case study areas, US Atlantic (Best et al. 2012) and British Columbia (Best et al. 2015), predicting presence and abundance respectively, from scientific surveys. These models are then applied to novel decision frameworks for preemptively suggesting optimal placement of human activities in space and time to minimize ecological impacts: siting for offshore wind energy development, and routing ships to minimize risk of striking whales. Both decision frameworks relate the tradeoff between conservation risk and industry profit with synchronized variable and map views as online spatial decision support systems.

For siting offshore wind energy development (OWED) in the U.S. Atlantic (chapter 4), bird density maps are combined across species with weights of OWED sensitivity to collision and displacement and 10 km2 sites are compared against OWED profitability based on average annual wind speed at 90m hub heights and distance to transmission grid. A spatial decision support system enables toggling between the map and tradeoff plot views by site. A selected site can be inspected for sensitivity to a cetaceans throughout the year, so as to capture months of the year which minimize episodic impacts of pre-operational activities such as seismic airgun surveying and pile driving.

Routing ships to avoid whale strikes (chapter 5) can be similarly viewed as a tradeoff, but is a different problem spatially. A cumulative cost surface is generated from density surface maps and conservation status of cetaceans, before applying as a resistance surface to calculate least-cost routes between start and end locations, i.e. ports and entrance locations to study areas. Varying a multiplier to the cost surface enables calculation of multiple routes with different costs to conservation of cetaceans versus cost to transportation industry, measured as distance. Similar to the siting chapter, a spatial decisions support system enables toggling between the map and tradeoff plot view of proposed routes. The user can also input arbitrary start and end locations to calculate the tradeoff on the fly.

Essential to the input of these decision frameworks are distributions of the species. The two preceding chapters comprise species distribution models from two case study areas, U.S. Atlantic (chapter 2) and British Columbia (chapter 3), predicting presence and density, respectively. Although density is preferred to estimate potential biological removal, per Marine Mammal Protection Act requirements in the U.S., all the necessary parameters, especially distance and angle of observation, are less readily available across publicly mined datasets.

In the case of predicting cetacean presence in the U.S. Atlantic (chapter 2), I extracted datasets from the online OBIS-SEAMAP geo-database, and integrated scientific surveys conducted by ship (n=36) and aircraft (n=16), weighting a Generalized Additive Model by minutes surveyed within space-time grid cells to harmonize effort between the two survey platforms. For each of 16 cetacean species guilds, I predicted the probability of occurrence from static environmental variables (water depth, distance to shore, distance to continental shelf break) and time-varying conditions (monthly sea-surface temperature). To generate maps of presence vs. absence, Receiver Operator Characteristic (ROC) curves were used to define the optimal threshold that minimizes false positive and false negative error rates. I integrated model outputs, including tables (species in guilds, input surveys) and plots (fit of environmental variables, ROC curve), into an online spatial decision support system, allowing for easy navigation of models by taxon, region, season, and data provider.

For predicting cetacean density within the inner waters of British Columbia (chapter 3), I calculated density from systematic, line-transect marine mammal surveys over multiple years and seasons (summer 2004, 2005, 2008, and spring/autumn 2007) conducted by Raincoast Conservation Foundation. Abundance estimates were calculated using two different methods: Conventional Distance Sampling (CDS) and Density Surface Modelling (DSM). CDS generates a single density estimate for each stratum, whereas DSM explicitly models spatial variation and offers potential for greater precision by incorporating environmental predictors. Although DSM yields a more relevant product for the purposes of marine spatial planning, CDS has proven to be useful in cases where there are fewer observations available for seasonal and inter-annual comparison, particularly for the scarcely observed elephant seal. Abundance estimates are provided on a stratum-specific basis. Steller sea lions and harbour seals are further differentiated by ‘hauled out’ and ‘in water’. This analysis updates previous estimates (Williams & Thomas 2007) by including additional years of effort, providing greater spatial precision with the DSM method over CDS, novel reporting for spring and autumn seasons (rather than summer alone), and providing new abundance estimates for Steller sea lion and northern elephant seal. In addition to providing a baseline of marine mammal abundance and distribution, against which future changes can be compared, this information offers the opportunity to assess the risks posed to marine mammals by existing and emerging threats, such as fisheries bycatch, ship strikes, and increased oil spill and ocean noise issues associated with increases of container ship and oil tanker traffic in British Columbia’s continental shelf waters.

Starting with marine animal observations at specific coordinates and times, I combine these data with environmental data, often satellite derived, to produce seascape predictions generalizable in space and time. These habitat-based models enable prediction of encounter rates and, in the case of density surface models, abundance that can then be applied to management scenarios. Specific human activities, OWED and shipping, are then compared within a tradeoff decision support framework, enabling interchangeable map and tradeoff plot views. These products make complex processes transparent for gaming conservation, industry and stakeholders towards optimal marine spatial management, fundamental to the tenets of marine spatial planning, ecosystem-based management and dynamic ocean management.

Passive Acoustics: A Multifaceted Tool for Marine Mammal Conservation

Marine mammals exploit the efficiency of sound propagation in the marine environment for essential activities like communication and navigation. For this reason, passive acoustics has particularly high potential for marine mammal studies, especially those aimed at population management and conservation. Despite the rapid realization of this potential through a growing number of studies, much crucial information remains unknown or poorly understood. This research attempts to address two key knowledge gaps, using the well-studied bottlenose dolphin (Tursiops truncatus) as a model species, and underwater acoustic recordings collected on four fixed autonomous sensors deployed at multiple locations in Sarasota Bay, Florida, between September 2012 and August 2013. Underwater noise can hinder dolphin communication. The ability of these animals to overcome this obstacle was examined using recorded noise and dolphin whistles. I found that bottlenose dolphins are able to compensate for increased noise in their environment using a wide range of strategies employed in a singular fashion or in various combinations, depending on the frequency content of the noise, noise source, and time of day. These strategies include modifying whistle frequency characteristics, increasing whistle duration, and increasing whistle redundancy. Recordings were also used to evaluate the performance of six recently developed passive acoustic abundance estimation methods, by comparing their results to the true abundance of animals, obtained via a census conducted within the same area and time period. The methods employed were broadly divided into two categories – those involving direct counts of animals, and those involving counts of cues (signature whistles). The animal-based methods were traditional capture-recapture, spatially explicit capture-recapture (SECR), and an approach that blends the “snapshot” method and mark-recapture distance sampling, referred to here as (SMRDS). The cue-based methods were conventional distance sampling (CDS), an acoustic modeling approach involving the use of the passive sonar equation, and SECR. In the latter approach, detection probability was modelled as a function of sound transmission loss, rather than the Euclidean distance typically used. Of these methods, while SMRDS produced the most accurate estimate, SECR demonstrated the greatest potential for broad applicability to other species and locations, with minimal to no auxiliary data, such as distance from sound source to detector(s), which is often difficult to obtain. This was especially true when this method was compared to traditional capture-recapture results, which greatly underestimated abundance, despite attempts to account for major unmodelled heterogeneity. Furthermore, the incorporation of non-Euclidean distance significantly improved model accuracy. The acoustic modelling approach performed similarly to CDS, but both methods also strongly underestimated abundance. In particular, CDS proved to be inefficient. This approach requires at least 3 sensors for localization at a single point. It was also difficult to obtain accurate distances, and the sample size was greatly reduced by the failure to detect some whistles on all three recorders. As a result, this approach is not recommended for marine mammal abundance estimation when few recorders are available, or in high sound attenuation environments with relatively low sample sizes. It is hoped that these results lead to more informed management decisions, and therefore, more effective species conservation.

Aerial surveys to monitor bluefin tuna abundance and track efficiency of management measures

Conservation and management measures for exploited fish species rely on our ability to monitor variations in population abundance. In the case of the eastern stock of Atlantic bluefin tuna (ABFT), recent changes in management policies have strongly affected the reliability of fishery-dependent indicators due to drastic changes in fishing season/area, fisheries selectivity and strategy. However, fishery-independent indices of abundance are rare for large pelagic fish, and obtaining them is often costly and labor intensive. Here, we show that scientific aerial surveys are an appropriate tool for monitoring juvenile bluefin tuna abundance in the Mediterranean. We present an abundance index based on 62 aerial surveys conducted since 2000, using 2 statistical approaches to deal with the sampling strategy: line and strip transects. Both approaches showed a significant increase in juvenile ABFT abundance in recent years, resulting from the recovery plan established in 2007. Nonetheless, the estimates from the line transect method appear to be more robust and stable. This study provides essential information for fisheries management. Expanding the spatial coverage to other nursery grounds would further increase the reliability and representativeness of this index.

Aerial line transect survey to estimate abundance of marsh deer (Blastocerus dichotomus) (Illiger, 1815)

A população de cervo-do-pantanal (Blastocerus dichotomus) está drasticamente reduzida no Brasil. O nosso objetivo foi o de estimar a abundância do cervo-do-pantanal na bacia do Rio Paraná e discutir a metodologia aplicada. Os resultados darão suporte para uma análise do impacto do enchimento da represa de Porto Primavera sobre essa população. Sessenta e nove animais foram registrados através de sobrevôo utilizando-se a metodologia de transecção linear com amostragem das distâncias. Os dados não corrigidos resultaram em uma densidade estimada de 0,0035ind/ha e uma população de 636 indivíduos. A correção de g para os animais que não foram vistos apresentou uma densidade de 0,0049 ind/ha e uma abundância de 896 (CV=0,27) indivíduos. A metodologia foi aplicada com sucesso na estimativa de cervo-do-pantanal. Esse resultado é importante para avaliarmos a população do cervo-do-pantanal na área e para futuramente analisarmos o impacto do enchimento da represa.

Long-distance wolf recolonization of France and Switzerland inferred from non-invasive genetic sampling over a period of 10 years

In the early 1900s, the wolf (Canis lupus) was extirpated from France and Switzerland. There is growing evidence that the species is presently recolonizing these countries in the western Alps. By sequencing the mitochondrial DNA (mtDNA) control region of various samples mainly collected in the field (scats, hairs, regurgitates, blood or tissue; n = 292), we could (1) develop a non-invasive method enabling the unambiguous attribution of these samples to wolf, fox (Vulpes vulpes) or dog (Canis familiaris), among others; (2) demonstrate that Italian, French and Swiss wolves share the same mtDNA haplotype, a haplotype that has never been found in any other wolf population world-wide. Combined together, field and genetic data collected over 10 years corroborate the scenario of a natural expansion of wolves from the Italian source population. Furthermore, such a genetic approach is of conservation significance, since it has important consequences for management decisions. This first long-term report using non-invasive sampling demonstrates that long-distance dispersers are common, supporting the hypothesis that individuals may often attempt to colonize far from their native pack, even in the absence of suitable corridors across habitats characterized by intense human activities.

Precision of distances and ordering of microsatellite markers in consensus linkage maps of chromosomes 1, 3 and 4 from two reciprocal chicken populations using bootstrap sampling

Some factors complicate comparisons between linkage maps from different studies. This problem can be resolved if measures of precision, such as confidence intervals and frequency distributions, are associated with markers. We examined the precision of distances and ordering of microsatellite markers in the consensus linkage maps of chromosomes 1, 3 and 4 from two F 2 reciprocal Brazilian chicken populations, using bootstrap sampling. Single and consensus maps were constructed. The consensus map was compared with the International Consensus Linkage Map and with the whole genome sequence. Some loci showed segregation distortion and missing data, but this did not affect the analyses negatively. Several inversions and position shifts were detected, based on 95% confidence intervals and frequency distributions of loci. Some discrepancies in distances between loci and in ordering were due to chance, whereas others could be attributed to other effects, including reciprocal crosses, sampling error of the founder animals from the two populations, F(2) population structure, number of and distance between microsatellite markers, number of informative meioses, loci segregation patterns, and sex. In the Brazilian consensus GGA1, locus LEI1038 was in a position closer to the true genome sequence than in the International Consensus Map, whereas for GGA3 and GGA4, no such differences were found. Extending these analyses to the remaining chromosomes should facilitate comparisons and the integration of several available genetic maps, allowing meta-analyses for map construction and quantitative trait loci (QTL) mapping. The precision of the estimates of QTL positions and their effects would be increased with such information.

Evaluating sampling strategies and logistic regression methods for modelling complex land cover changes

The role of land cover change as a significant component of global change has become increasingly recognized in recent decades. Large databases measuring land cover change, and the data which can potentially be used to explain the observed changes, are also becoming more commonly available. When developing statistical models to investigate observed changes, it is important to be aware that the chosen sampling strategy and modelling techniques can influence results. We present a comparison of three sampling strategies and two forms of grouped logistic regression models (multinomial and ordinal) in the investigation of patterns of successional change after agricultural land abandonment in Switzerland. Results indicated that both ordinal and nominal transitional change occurs in the landscape and that the use of different sampling regimes and modelling techniques as investigative tools yield different results. Synthesis and applications. Our multimodel inference identified successfully a set of consistently selected indicators of land cover change, which can be used to predict further change, including annual average temperature, the number of already overgrown neighbouring areas of land and distance to historically destructive avalanche sites. This allows for more reliable decision making and planning with respect to landscape management. Although both model approaches gave similar results, ordinal regression yielded more parsimonious models that identified the important predictors of land cover change more efficiently. Thus, this approach is favourable where land cover change pattern can be interpreted as an ordinal process. Otherwise, multinomial logistic regression is a viable alternative.

Measuring and Explaining the Increase of Travel Distance : A Multilevel Analysis Using Repeated Cross Sectional Travel Surveys

We want to shed some light on the development of person mobility by analysing the repeated cross-sectional data of the four National Travel Surveys (NTS) that were conducted in Germany since the mid seventies. The above mentioned driving forces operate on different levels of the system that generates the spatial behaviour we observe: Travel demand is derived from the needs and desires of individuals to participate in spatially separated activities. Individuals organise their lives in an interactive process within the context they live in, using given infrastructure. Essential determinants of their demand are the individual's socio-demographic characteristics, but also the opportunities and constraints defined by the household and the environment are relevant for the behaviour which ultimately can be realised. In order to fully capture the context which determines individual behaviour, the (nested) hierarchy of persons within households within spatial settings has to be considered. The data we will use for our analysis contains information on these three levels. With the analysis of this micro-data we attempt to improve our understanding of the afore subsumed macro developments. In addition we will investigate the prediction power of a few classic sociodemographic variables for the daily travel distance of individuals in the four NTS data sets, with a focus on the evolution of this predictive power. The additional task to correctly measure distances travelled by means of the NTS is threatened by the fact that although these surveys measure the same variables, different sampling designs and data collection procedures were used. So the aim of the analysis is also to detect variables whose control corrects for the known measurement error, as a prerequisite to apply appropriate models in order to better understand the development of individual travel behaviour in a multilevel context. This task is complicated by the fact that variables that inform on survey procedures and outcomes are only provided with the data set for 2002 (see Infas and DIW Berlin, 2003).