The Effects of Privatization of State-Owned Enterprises in Poland and East Germany

The main goal of this project was to propose appropriate methods of analysing the effects of the privatisation of state-owned enterprises, methods which were then tested on a limited sample of 16 Polish and 8 German enterprises privatised in 1992. A considerable amount of information was collected relating to the six-year period 1989-1994 relating to most aspects of the companies' activities. The effects of privatisation were taken to be those changes within the enterprises which were the result of privatisation, in such areas as production, the productivity of labour and fixed assets, investments and innovations, employment and wages, economic incentives (especially for top managers), financing (internal and external sources), bad debts and economic effects (financial analysis). A second important goal was to identify the main factors which represent methodological obstacles in surveys of the effects of privatisation during a period of fundamental transformation of the entire economic system. The list of enterprises for the research was compiled in such a way as to allow for the differentiation of ownership structures of privatised firms and to permit (at least to a certain extent) the empirical verification of some hypotheses regarding the privatisation process. The enterprises selected were divided into the following three groups representing (as far as possible) various types of ownership structures or types of control: (1) enterprises control by strategic investors (domestic or foreign), (2) enterprises controlled by employees (employee-owned companies), (3) enterprises controlled by managers. Formal methods such as econometric models with varying parameters were used to separate pure privatisation effects from other factors which influence various aspects of an enterprise's working, including policies on the productivity of labour and capital, average wages, the remuneration of top managers, etc. While the group admits that their findings and conclusions cannot be treated as representative of all privatised enterprises in Poland and Germany, they found considerable convergence with their findings and those of other surveys conducted on a wider scale. The main hypotheses that were confirmed included that privatisation (especially in companies controlled by large investors and managers) leads to a significant increase in the effectiveness of these production process, growing pay differentials between different employee groups (e.g. between executives and rank-and-file employees) and between different jobs and positions within particular professional groups. They also confirmed the growing importance in incentives to top executives of incentives linked with the company's economic effects (particularly profit-related incentives), long-term incentives and the capital market.

Who has really paid for the Reconstruction of East Germany? Expected and Realized Returns on Real Estate Investments in East and West Germany in the 1990s

We evaluate the profitability of investments in residential property in Germany after unification with a focus on the comparison of East and West Germany. Calculations are carried out for (1) the after-tax return an investor might have expected at the beginning of the 1990s, and (2) the after-tax return that has been realized ten years after. We compare a set of statistical data for investments in fifty major cities by using complete financial budgeting. The results show that tax subsidies could not always protect investors from losing money, but they have boosted realized returns after tax considerably. Therefore, it was indeed the taxpayers, not the investors, who have borne the cost of reconstructing East Germany.

Political Efficacy and Voter Turnouts in East and West Germany

This article asks if voters' participation in federal elections is lower in the new Länder (East Germany) than in the old Länder (West Germany). It is assumed that voters in the new Länder are less convinced they can influence politics by voting. Using the perspective of cognitive psychology the article stresses differences in individual interpretations of the election context among citizens of both the new and old Länder. Furthermore, it is argued that the strength of the expected influence by voting depends on the structure and direction of individuals' beliefs in their competence and control as well as their belief in causality and self-efficacy. These beliefs may differ among voters in the new and old Länder. For empirical analysis, the article uses data from the German General Social Survey 1998.

Ecological investigations in the wadden area off Borkum, East Frisian Islands, Germany

Die Bodentiergemeinschaft des Wattenmeeres ist von Frühjahr bis Herbst eines jeden Jahres durch extrem hohe Dichten von Jungtieren charakterisiert. Die Kenntnisse über die Ansiedlung von fplanktischen Larven im Wattenmeer, sowie die Dynamik postlarvaler Stadien sind aufgrund der üblicherweise verwendeten, großen Siebmaschenweiten gering. Gerade aber diesen Altersstadien kommt möglicherweise eine besondere Stellung im Energiefluß des Wattenmeeres zu. An 5 Stationen (von NWL bis HWL, B1-B5) im Rückseitenwatt der ostfriesischen Insel Borkum wurden 1986 Ansiedlung, räumliche Verteilung, Wachstum, Mortalität und Produktion der Altersklasse 0 von Macoma balthica, Mya arenaria und Cerastoderma edule untersucht. Um die Ansiedlung der planktotrophen Larven dieser Arten zu beschreiben, wurden ihre Dichten in Plankton und Bodenproben miteinander verglichen. Die Untersuchungen zur Dynamik der benthischen Stadien wurden mit zwei in der Probenfläche und der Siebmaschenweite unterschiedlichen Probenserien durchgeführt. Die Drift postlarvaler Stadien wurde durch bodennahe Planktonfänge innerhalb des Eulitorals nachgewiesen. Parallel zu den Untersuchungen an der Endofauna wurden das Vorkommen und die Größe epibenthischer Räuber im Untersuchungsgebiet erfaßt. Die Hauptansiedlung von M. balthica- und M. arenaria-Larven erfolgte nahezu gleichzeitig Ende Mai/Anfang Juni. Die meisten Larven beider Arten gingen an der prielnächsten (tiefsten) Station (B1) zum Bodenleben über, gefolgt von der nächst höher gelegenen Station B2. Während frühe Bodenstadien von M. arenaria nicht im oberen Bereich des Watts (B3,B4) gefunden wurden, ist eine geringfügige Erstansiedlung von M. balthica in diesem Gebiet nicht auszuschließen. Ein die Ansiedlung limitierender Einfluß der relativ dichten Mya arenaria-Siedlung an den Stationen B1 und B2 sowie der Alttiere von M. balthica konnte nicht festgestellt werden. Die Ähnlichkeit des Ansiedlungsprozesses bei beiden Arten, die sich im Zahlenverhältnis Larvenangebot zu Anzahl der ersten Bodenstadien widerspiegelt, kann ein Hinweis auf eine überwiegend passive Ansiedlung der Larven am Boden sein. Der Ort der Hauptansiedlung von C. edule wurde durch den Transekt nicht erfaßt. Die Station B2 war zwar durch ein Herzmuschelfeld charakterisiert, dieses war aber nach zwei Eiswintern nahezu vollständig eliminiert. Der Abundanz der planktischen Larven zufolge war der Hauptansiedlungszeitraum ebenfalls Ende Mai/Anfang Juni. Zu dieser Zeit wurden nur vereinzelt frühe Bodenstadien an den Stationen B1 und B2 gefunden, keine an den Stationen B3 und B4. Während die frühen postlarvalen Stadien von M. arenaria überwiegend am Ort der Ansiedlung blieben, verbreiteten sich die von M. balthica bis in den oberen Bereich des Untersuchungsgebietes (B3-B5). Analog zu der Besiedlung dieser Gebiete durch postlarvale M. balthica wurde die im Verlauf des Untersuchungsjahres stattfindende Kolonisierung der Station B1 durch C. edule ebenfalls postlarvalem Transport zugeschrieben. Demzufolge spielt bei beiden Muschelarten postlarvaler Transport eine wichtige Rolle bei der Besiedlung von Habitaten. Planktonfänge innerhalb der bodennahen Wasserschicht bestätigten, daß im Untersuchungsgebiet M. balthica die am stärksten verdriftende Muschelart war, gefolgt von C. edule. Mortalität, Wachstum, mittlere Biomasse, Produktion und P/B-Verhältnis wurden für M. balthica an den Stationen B1, B3 und B4 sowie für M. arenaria an der Station B1 bestimmt. Wachstum und damit auch Produktion beider Arten erwiesen sich hier - wie an den höher gelegen Stationen (nur M. balthica) - als durch größenselektiven Feinddruck beeinflußt. Der Effekt postlarvalen Transports auf Wachstum wird diskutiert. Übergreifend über die auf Artebene diskutierten Ergebnisse wird die Bedeutung der Dispersion postlarvaler Stadien und die Wirkung epibenthischen Feinddrucks im Wattenmeer erörtert. Der Vergleich postlarvalen Transportes mit der Dispersion planktischer Larvenstadien, der Dispersion von Meiofauna und der Mobilität adulter Stadien der Makrofauna verdeutlicht, daß es sich hierbei um eine Strategie handeln kann, innerhalb eines unvorhersagbaren Biotops freiwerdende Ressourcen zu nutzen und dadurch Konkurrenz zu vermeiden. Es wird die Hypothese aufgestellt, daß Initialansiedlung und Immigration einerseits sowie Feinddruck und Emigration andererseits einen Regelkreis darstellen, der in verschiedenen Teilbereichen des Watts mit unterschiedlicher Geschwindigkeit abläuft.

The Fall of the East German Birth Rate After Unification: Crisis or Means of Adaptation? CES Germany & Europe Working Papers, No. 05.6, 26 June 1995

Since the fall of the Wall, Eastern Germans have drastically changed their demographic behavior. Marriages and births have dropped to an unprecedented low level. Our paper tracks birth rates of the East German population, past, present, and future. We propose a simulation model of future cohort fertility. The hypotheses we develop build on the historical record of reproductive behavior in the German Democratic Republic (GDR) since 1960 and on an analysis of the pattern of change between 1990 and 1994. The particular emphasis lies in the assumption that East German couples will rapidly westernize their family size by trying to reach completed fertility levels of the corresponding West German cohort. This implies that the resulting adaptation process includes the postunification crisis as a logical first step.

Continuous Off-the-Job Training in East Germany After Unification: Preliminary Results of an Evaluation of the Effects for Individual Workers, CES Germany & Europe Working Papers, No. 05.9, 19 July, 1995

Retraining the labor force to match the demands of a modem economy is seen as an important task during the transition process from a centrally-planned to a market economy. This need was particularly pressing in East Germany, because the transition process has proceeded much faster than in the rest of Eastern Europe. Therefore, substantial resources have been devoted to this purpose. This paper analyzes the impact of continuous off-the-job training in East Germany from the point of view of individuals who were part of the labor force before German unification in 1990. It tries to answer questions about the average gains from participating in a specific type of training. Typical outcomes considered to measure those gains are income, employment status, job security, and expected future changes in job position. The methodology used for the evaluation is the potential outcome approach to causality. This approach has received considerable attention in the statistical literature over the last fifteen years and it has recently been rediscovered by the econometric literature as well. It is adapted to allow for important permanent and transitory shocks, such as unemployment, which influence the decision to participate in the training as well as future labor market outcomes. The empirical part is based on the first four waves of the Socio-Economic Panel (GSOEP)-East (1990-1993). This panel data set has the advantage that the fourth wave contains a special survey on continuous training and that it allows keeping track of individual behavior on a monthly, respectively yearly, basis. The econometric analysis focuses on off-the-job training courses that began after unification and were completed not later than in early 1993. Although it is obviously too early to evaluate the long-term implications, the results suggest that there are no positive effects in the short run.