Business cycle dynamics with duration dependence and leading indicators

Durland and McCurdy [Durland, J.M., McCurdy, T.H., 1994. Duration-dependent transitions in a Markov model of US GNP growth. Journal of Business and Economic Statistics 12, 279–288] investigated the issue of duration dependence in US business cycle phases using a Markov regime-switching approach, introduced by Hamilton [Hamilton, J., 1989. A new approach to the analysis of time series and the business cycle. Econometrica 57, 357–384] and extended to the case of variable transition parameters by Filardo [Filardo, A.J., 1994. Business cycle phases and their transitional dynamics. Journal of Business and Economic Statistics 12, 299–308]. In Durland and McCurdy’s model duration alone was used as an explanatory variable of the transition probabilities. They found that recessions were duration dependent whilst expansions were not. In this paper, we explicitly incorporate the widely-accepted US business cycle phase change dates as determined by the NBER, and use a state-dependent multinomial Logit modelling framework. The model incorporates both duration and movements in two leading indexes – one designed to have a short lead (SLI) and the other designed to have a longer lead (LLI) – as potential explanatory variables. We find that doing so suggests that current duration is not only a significant determinant of transition out of recessions, but that there is some evidence that it is also weakly significant in the case of expansions. Furthermore, we find that SLI has more informational content for the termination of recessions whilst LLI does so for expansions.

Multifractal analysis of geomagnetic storm and solar flare indices and their class dependence

The multifractal properties of two indices of geomagnetic activity, D st (representative of low latitudes) and a p (representative of the global geomagnetic activity), with the solar X-ray brightness, X l , during the period from 1 March 1995 to 17 June 2003 are examined using multifractal detrended fluctuation analysis (MF-DFA). The h(q) curves of D st and a p in the MF-DFA are similar to each other, but they are different from that of X l , indicating that the scaling properties of X l are different from those of D st and a p . Hence, one should not predict the magnitude of magnetic storms directly from solar X-ray observations. However, a strong relationship exists between the classes of the solar X-ray irradiance (the classes being chosen to separate solar flares of class X-M, class C, and class B or less, including no flares) in hourly measurements and the geomagnetic disturbances (large to moderate, small, or quiet) seen in D st and a p during the active period. Each time series was converted into a symbolic sequence using three classes. The frequency, yielding the measure representations, of the substrings in the symbolic sequences then characterizes the pattern of space weather events. Using the MF-DFA method and traditional multifractal analysis, we calculate the h(q), D(q), and τ (q) curves of the measure representations. The τ (q) curves indicate that the measure representations of these three indices are multifractal. On the basis of this three-class clustering, we find that the h(q), D(q), and τ (q) curves of the measure representations of these three indices are similar to each other for positive values of q. Hence, a positive flare storm class dependence is reflected in the scaling exponents h(q) in the MF-DFA and the multifractal exponents D(q) and τ (q). This finding indicates that the use of the solar flare classes could improve the prediction of the D st classes.

Variational Bayes and the reduced dependence approximation for the autologistic model on an irregular grid with applications

Discrete Markov random field models provide a natural framework for representing images or spatial datasets. They model the spatial association present while providing a convenient Markovian dependency structure and strong edge-preservation properties. However, parameter estimation for discrete Markov random field models is difficult due to the complex form of the associated normalizing constant for the likelihood function. For large lattices, the reduced dependence approximation to the normalizing constant is based on the concept of performing computationally efficient and feasible forward recursions on smaller sublattices which are then suitably combined to estimate the constant for the whole lattice. We present an efficient computational extension of the forward recursion approach for the autologistic model to lattices that have an irregularly shaped boundary and which may contain regions with no data; these lattices are typical in applications. Consequently, we also extend the reduced dependence approximation to these scenarios enabling us to implement a practical and efficient non-simulation based approach for spatial data analysis within the variational Bayesian framework. The methodology is illustrated through application to simulated data and example images. The supplemental materials include our C++ source code for computing the approximate normalizing constant and simulation studies.

Sequential fusion of decisions with favorable dependence for controlled verification errors

Statistical dependence between classifier decisions is often shown to improve performance over statistically independent decisions. Though the solution for favourable dependence between two classifier decisions has been derived, the theoretical analysis for the general case of 'n' client and impostor decision fusion has not been presented before. This paper presents the expressions developed for favourable dependence of multi-instance and multi-sample fusion schemes that employ 'AND' and 'OR' rules. The expressions are experimentally evaluated by considering the proposed architecture for text-dependent speaker verification using HMM based digit dependent speaker models. The improvement in fusion performance is found to be higher when digit combinations with favourable client and impostor decisions are used for speaker verification. The total error rate of 20% for fusion of independent decisions is reduced to 2.1% for fusion of decisions that are favourable for both client and impostors. The expressions developed here are also applicable to other biometric modalities, such as finger prints and handwriting samples, for reliable identity verification.

A novel SNP in COMT is associated with alcohol dependence but not opiate or nicotine dependence: a case control study

Background It is well established that COMT is a strong candidate gene for substance use disorder and schizophrenia. Recently we identified two SNPs in COMT (rs4680 and rs165774) that are associated with schizophrenia in an Australian cohort. Individuals with schizophrenia were more than twice as likely to carry the GG genotype compared to the AA genotype for both the rs165774 and rs4680 SNPs. Association of both rs4680 and rs165774 with substance dependence, a common comorbidity of schizophrenia has not been investigated. Methods To determine whether COMT is important in substance dependence, rs165774 and rs4680 were genotyped and haplotyped in patients with nicotine, alcohol and opiate dependence. Results The rs165774 SNP was associated with alcohol dependence. However, it was not associated with nicotine or opiate dependence. Individuals with alcohol dependence were more than twice as likely to carry the GG or AG genotypes compared to the AA genotype, indicating a dominant mode of inheritance. The rs4680 SNP showed a weak association with alcohol dependence at the allele level that did not reach significance at the genotype level but it was not associated with nicotine or opiate dependence. Analysis of rs165774/rs4680 haplotypes also revealed association with alcohol dependence with the G/G haplotype being almost 1.5 times more common in alcohol-dependent cases. Conclusions Our study provides further support for the importance of the COMT in alcohol dependence in addition to schizophrenia. It is possible that the rs165774 SNP, in combination with rs4680, results in a common molecular variant of COMT that contributes to schizophrenia and alcohol dependence susceptibility. This is potentially important for future studies of comorbidity. As our participant numbers are limited our observations should be viewed with caution until they are independently replicated.

A DRD2 and ANKK1 haplotype is associated with nicotine dependence

To test the importance of the dopamine D2 receptor (DRD2) region in nicotine dependence, 150 smokers and 228 controls were genotyped for the DRD2 C957T, -141delC and ANKK1 TaqIA polymorphisms (rs6277, rs1799732 and rs1800497, respectively). The -141delC SNP did not show any association but both the C957T and TaqIA SNPs showed association at the allele, genotype, haplotype and combined genotype levels. The 957C/TaqI A1 haplotype was more than 3.5 times as likely to be associated with nicotine dependence compared with the 957T/TaqI A1 haplotype (P = 0.003). Analysis of the combined genotypes of both SNPs revealed that individuals who were homozygous for the 957C-allele (CC) and had either one or two copies of the TaqI A1-allele were 3.3 times as likely to have nicotine dependence compared to all other genotype combinations (P = 0.0003) and that these genotypes accounted for approximately 13% of the susceptibility to nicotine addiction in our population. Our findings suggest that the DRD2 C957T polymorphism and the ANKK1 TaqIA polymorphism are key contributors to the genetic susceptibility to nicotine dependence.

DRD2 C957T and TaqIA genotyping reveals gender effects and unique low-risk and high-risk genotypes in alcohol dependence

AIMS: As recent conflicting reports describe a genetic association between both the C- and the T-alleles of the dopamine D2 receptor (DRD2) C957T polymorphism (rs6277) in alcohol-dependent subjects, our aim was to examine this polymorphism and TaqIA (rs1800497) in Australian alcohol-dependent subjects. METHODS: The C957T polymorphism was genotyped in 228 patients with alcohol dependence (72 females and 156 males) and 228 healthy controls. RESULTS: The C-allele and C/C genotype of C957T was associated with alcohol dependence, whereas the TaqIA polymorphism was not. When analysed separately for C957T, males showed an even stronger association with the C-allele and females showed no association. The C957T and TaqIA haplotyping revealed a strong association with alcohol dependence and a double-genotype analysis (combining C957T and TaqIA genotypes) revealed that the relative risk of different genotypes varied by up to 27-fold with the TT/A1A2 having an 8.5-fold lower risk of alcohol dependence than other genotypes. CONCLUSION: Decreased DRD2 binding associated with the C-allele of the DRD2 C957T polymorphism is likely to be important in the underlying pathophysiology of at least some forms of alcohol dependence, and this effect appears to be limited to males only.

Maintenance optimisation of a multi-state series-parallel system considering economic dependence and state-dependent inspection intervals

This paper presents a maintenance optimisation method for a multi-state series-parallel system considering economic dependence and state-dependent inspection intervals. The objective function considered in the paper is the average revenue per unit time calculated based on the semi-regenerative theory and the universal generating function (UGF). A new algorithm using the stochastic ordering is also developed in this paper to reduce the search space of maintenance strategies and to enhance the efficiency of optimisation algorithms. A numerical simulation is presented in the study to evaluate the efficiency of the proposed maintenance strategy and optimisation algorithms. The simulation result reveals that maintenance strategies with opportunistic maintenance and state-dependent inspection intervals are more cost-effective when the influence of economic dependence and inspection cost is significant. The study further demonstrates that the optimisation algorithm proposed in this paper has higher computational efficiency than the commonly employed heuristic algorithms.

KPNA3 variation is associated with schizophrenia, major depression, opiate dependence and alcohol dependence

KPNA3 is a gene that has been linked to schizophrenia susceptibility. In this study we investigated the possible association between KPNA3 variation and schizophrenia. To investigate a wider role of KPNA3 across psychiatric disorders we also analysed major depression, PTSD, nicotine dependent, alcohol dependent and opiate dependent cohorts. Using a haplotype block-based gene-tagging approach we genotyped six KPNA3 single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) in 157 schizophrenia patients, 121 post-traumatic stress disorder patients, 120 opiate dependent patients, 231 alcohol dependent patients, 147 nicotine dependent patients and 266 major depression patients. One SNP rs2273816 was found to be significantly associated with schizophrenia, opiate dependence and alcohol dependence at the genotype and allele level. Major depression was also associated with rs2273816 but only at the allele level. Our study suggests that KPNA3 may contribute to the genetic susceptibility to schizophrenia as well as other psychiatric disorders.

Metacognitive therapy for alcohol abuse and dependence

While the consumption of alcohol has been part of the collective psyche of Australians since colonisation, the overconsumption of alcohol has been and continues to be a significant problem for the Australian community. Currently motivational interviewing and cognitive behaviour therapy are seen as the two standard psychological interventions for alcohol abuse and dependence. While these two approaches have shown significant impact on reducing alcohol abuse and dependence, they are not without their limitations. As such there is a need to continue to explore the application of newer developments in psychotherapy to the treatment problematic drinking behaviours. In this chapter we propose that Metacognitive Therapy is one such psychotherapy that is likely to provide a promising new approach to the treatment of alcohol abuse and dependence. In this chapter we will first briefly outline the history and significance of problematic drinking behaviours in Australia. Following this, we will quickly summarise the literature regarding motivational interviewing and cognitive behaviour therapy. Next we will provide an outline of the theoretical framework of Metacognitive Therapy and then describe two brief case studies illustrating the application of Metacognitive Therapy to the treatment of alcohol abuse and dependence. From this discussion we propose that the combination of Motivational Interviewing and Metacognitive Therapy is a promising new approach that can provide great assistance for the treatment of alcohol abuse or dependence.

Does legal heritage affect obesity? The channel of motor vehicle dependence

We find a robust relationship between motor vehicle ownership, its interaction with legal heritage and obesity in OECD countries. Our estimates indicate that an increase of 100 motor vehicles per thousand residents is associated with about a 6% point increase in obesity in common law countries, whereas it has a much smaller or insignificant impact in civil law countries. These relations hold whether we examine trend data and simple correlations, or conduct cross-section or panel data regression analysis. Our results suggest that obesity rises with motor vehicle ownership in countries following a common law tradition where individual liberty is encouraged, whereas the link is small or statistically non-existent in countries with a civil law background where the rights of the individual tend to be circumscribed by the power of the state.

Determinants of place identity and dependence : the case of international tourism in Tanzania

This research examines the effects of expectation (perceived attractiveness) on satisfaction, place identity, and place dependence. Place identity and place dependence are viewed as relational components of choice and relate to deeper needs. This study proposes that these two relational components depend on transactional expectations, which are emergent and determined by past experiences and visitor goals. In a theoretically elaborated and tested Structural Equation Model (SEM) this study assumes that these relationships vary according to intentions to return. The study addresses the conditions under which loyalty intentions influence the deeper place attachments (place identity and place dependence) that visitors associate with attractive cultural and natural destinations. The model is tested on a sample of 504 international tourists visiting Tanzania during fall 2010, and explains 59% of variance in the predicted dependent variables. The results are linked to a discussion on loyalty programs.