The significance of endogeneity problems in crash models: An examination of left-turn lanes in intersection crash models

Crash prediction models are used for a variety of purposes including forecasting the expected future performance of various transportation system segments with similar traits. The influence of intersection features on safety have been examined extensively because intersections experience a relatively large proportion of motor vehicle conflicts and crashes compared to other segments in the transportation system. The effects of left-turn lanes at intersections in particular have seen mixed results in the literature. Some researchers have found that left-turn lanes are beneficial to safety while others have reported detrimental effects on safety. This inconsistency is not surprising given that the installation of left-turn lanes is often endogenous, that is, influenced by crash counts and/or traffic volumes. Endogeneity creates problems in econometric and statistical models and is likely to account for the inconsistencies reported in the literature. This paper reports on a limited-information maximum likelihood (LIML) estimation approach to compensate for endogeneity between left-turn lane presence and angle crashes. The effects of endogeneity are mitigated using the approach, revealing the unbiased effect of left-turn lanes on crash frequency for a dataset of Georgia intersections. The research shows that without accounting for endogeneity, left-turn lanes ‘appear’ to contribute to crashes; however, when endogeneity is accounted for in the model, left-turn lanes reduce angle crash frequencies as expected by engineering judgment. Other endogenous variables may lurk in crash models as well, suggesting that the method may be used to correct simultaneity problems with other variables and in other transportation modeling contexts.

Old Brisbane Botanic Gardens: Conservation Plan Review 2005, Report of Stage 1 Heritage Significance and Conservation Policies

Report for City Design, for Environment and Parks, within the Brisbane City Council. Context of this Project A Conservation Study for the Old Brisbane Botanic Gardens, formerly called the Brisbane City Botanic Gardens, was finalised in 1995 and prepared by Jeannie Sim for the Landscape Section of Brisbane City Council, the same author of the present report. This unpublished report was the first conservation plan prepared for the place and it was recommended that it be reviewed in five years time. That time has arrived finally with the preparation of the 2005 Review. The present project was commissioned by City Design on behalf of Environment and Parks Section of Brisbane City Council. The author has purposely chosen to call the study site the 'Old Brisbane Botanic Gardens' (OBBG) to differentiate it from the Brisbane Botanic Gardens, Mt. Coot-tha (BBG-MC), and to maintain the claim for this original garden to remain as a botanic garden for Brisbane. This name immediately brings to mind an association with history, as in the precedent set by the naming of the nearby 'Old Government House' at Gardens Point.

The significance of owner participation in a successful detached housing development in Malaysia: A literature review

The detached housing scheme is a unique and exclusive segment of the residential property market in Malaysia. Generally, the product is expensive and for many Malaysians who can afford them, owning a detached house is a once in a lifetime opportunity. In spite of this, most of the owners fail to fully comprehend the specific need of this type of housing scheme, increasing the risk of it being a problematic project. Unlike other types of pre-designed ‘mass housing’ schemes, the detached housing scheme may be built specifically to cater the needs and demands of its owner. Therefore, maximum owner participation is vital as the development progresses to guarantee the success of the project. In addition, due to it’s unique design the house would have to individually comply with the requirements and regulations of relevant authorities. Failure of owner to recognise this will result in delays, fines and penalties, disputes and ultimately cost overruns. These circumstances highlight the need for a model to guide the owner through the entire development process of a detached house. Therefore, this research aims to develop a model for a successful detached housing development in Malaysia through maximising owner participation during it’s various development stages. To achieve this, questionnaire surveys and case studies methods shall be employed to acquire the detached housing owners’ experiences in developing their detached houses in Malaysia. Relevant statistical tools shall be applied to analyse the responses. The results gained from this study shall be synthesised into a model of successful detached housing development for the reference of future detached housing owners in Malaysia.

Raman spectroscopic study of the mineral thorikosite Pb3(OH)(SbO3,AsO3)Cl2 : a mineral of archaeological significance

The mineral thorikosite Pb3(OH)(SbO3,AsO3)Cl2 is named after the ancient city of Thorikos, in the region of Attica, where the ancient mine sites dating back to the bronze ages are found. Raman spectra of the antimonate bearing mineral thorikosite Pb3(OH)(SbO3,AsO3)Cl2 were studied, and related to the structure of the mineral. Two intense Raman peaks are observed at 596 and 730 cm-1 and are assigned to the Sb3+O3 and As3+O3 stretching vibrations. A peak at 1085 cm-1 is assigned to the Sb3+OH deformation mode. Raman band at 325 cm-1 is assigned to an OAsO bending vibration of the As3+O3 units and the bands at 269 and 275 cm-1 are attributed to the OSbO bending modes of the Sb3+O3 units. The intense Raman bands at 112 and 133 cm-1 are associated with PbCl stretching modes. Minerals such as nealite and thorikosite are minerals of archaeological significance. Yet no spectroscopic studies of these minerals have been undertaken.

Luxury fashion : the significance of luxury fashion goods for sustainable fashion design

This paper extends the work of “Luxury fashion : the role of innovation as a key contributing factor in the development of luxury fashion goods and sustainable fashion design” (Finn, 2011). The discussion here begins with the observation that post consumer textile waste remains a major obstacle in realising a model of sustainable fashion design and production however, amongst the millions of tonnes of textile and clothing sent to landfill each year there is little evidence of authentic luxury branded goods ending life as landfill. The sustainable fashion movement often support approaches such as fashion up-cycle, re-cycle and cradle to cradle solutions. This paper argues that the priority should be to break the cycle of consumerism as an immediate intervention in ongoing unsustainable (and in some cases unethical) practices involved in the production of fashion goods. The connections between maker and consumer are explored through object analysis and the findings raise questions of the separation between luxury fashion goods and fashion goods that bear luxury fashion branding. This paper suggests that unethical and subversive exploitation of these connections may be used to promote increased consumerism while at the same time purporting exclusivity and superior craftsmanship.

Seen but not heard? The significance of shareholders under Pt 5.3A of the Corporations Act

The article considers the interests of company members as stakeholders in the event of a company entering voluntary administration and suggests that while shareholders hold a residual interest, they nonetheless have an interest in ensuring that that the company is rescued and perhaps therefore have a role to play in the rescue of the company’s business. In doing so it argues that there is some inconsistency in recent changes in Ch 5 regarding the role of shareholders with some changes recognising their role while others have sought to downplay it.

Raman spectroscopy of the multi-anion mineral mallestigite Pb3Sb5+(SO4)(AsO4)(OH)6•3H2O – a mineral of archaeological significance

Some minerals are formed which show poorly defined X-ray diffraction patterns. Vibrational spectroscopy offers one of the few methods for the assessment of the structure of the oxyanions in such minerals. Among this group of minerals is mallestigite with formula Pb3Sb5+(SO4)(AsO4)(OH)6•3H2O. The objective of this research is to determine the molecular structure of the mineral mallestigite using vibrational spectroscopy. Raman and infrared bands are attributed to the AsO43- , SO42- and water stretching vibrations. Mallestigite is a mineral formed in ancient waste dumps such as occurs at Mallestiger, Carinthia, Austria and as such is a mineral of archaeological significance.

When non-significance maybe significant: lessons learned from a study into the development, implementation and evaluation of a risk assessment tool for fleet settings

Introduction This study reports on the development of a self report assessment tool to increase the efficacy of crash prediction within Australian Fleet settings Over last 20 years an array of measures have been produced (Driver anger scale, Driving Skill Inventory, Manchester Driver Behaviour Questionnaire, Driver Attitude Questionnaire, Driver Stress Inventory, Safety Climate Questionnaire) While these tools are useful, research has demonstrated limited ability to accurately identify individuals most likely to be involved in a crash. Reasons cited include; - Crashes are relatively rare - Other competing factors may influence crash event - Ongoing questions regarding the validity of self report measures (common method variance etc) - Lack of contemporary issues relating to fleet driving performance

On the significance of omitted variables in intersection crash modeling

Advances in safety research—trying to improve the collective understanding of motor vehicle crash causes and contributing factors—rest upon the pursuit of numerous lines of research inquiry. The research community has focused considerable attention on analytical methods development (negative binomial models, simultaneous equations, etc.), on better experimental designs (before-after studies, comparison sites, etc.), on improving exposure measures, and on model specification improvements (additive terms, non-linear relations, etc.). One might logically seek to know which lines of inquiry might provide the most significant improvements in understanding crash causation and/or prediction. It is the contention of this paper that the exclusion of important variables (causal or surrogate measures of causal variables) cause omitted variable bias in model estimation and is an important and neglected line of inquiry in safety research. In particular, spatially related variables are often difficult to collect and omitted from crash models—but offer significant opportunities to better understand contributing factors and/or causes of crashes. This study examines the role of important variables (other than Average Annual Daily Traffic (AADT)) that are generally omitted from intersection crash prediction models. In addition to the geometric and traffic regulatory information of intersection, the proposed model includes many spatial factors such as local influences of weather, sun glare, proximity to drinking establishments, and proximity to schools—representing a mix of potential environmental and human factors that are theoretically important, but rarely used. Results suggest that these variables in addition to AADT have significant explanatory power, and their exclusion leads to omitted variable bias. Provided is evidence that variable exclusion overstates the effect of minor road AADT by as much as 40% and major road AADT by 14%.

Prevalence and prognostic significance of secondary lymphedema following breast cancer

Background The adverse consequences of lymphedema following breast cancer in relation to physical function and quality of life are clear; however, its potential relationship with survival has not been investigated. Our purpose was to determine the prevalence of lymphedema and associated upper-body symptoms at 6 years following breast cancer and to examine the prognostic significance of lymphedema with respect to overall 6-year survival (OS). Methods and Results A population-based sample of Australian women (n=287) diagnosed with invasive, unilateral breast cancer was followed for a median of 6.6 years and prospectively assessed for lymphedema (using bioimpedance spectroscopy [BIS], sum of arm circumferences [SOAC], and self-reported arm swelling), a range of upper-body symptoms, and vital status. OS was measured from date of diagnosis to date of death or last follow-up. Kaplan-Meier methods were used to calculate OS and Cox proportional hazards models quantified the risk associated with lymphedema. Approximately 45% of women had reported at least one moderate to extreme symptom at 6.6 years postdiagnosis, while 34% had shown clinical evidence of lymphedema, and 48% reported arm swelling at least once since baseline assessment. A total of 27 (9.4%) women died during the follow-up period, and lymphedema, diagnosed by BIS or SOAC between 6–18 months postdiagnosis, predicted mortality (BIS: HR=2.5; 95% CI: 0.9, 6.8, p=0.08; SOAC: 3.0; 95% CI: 1.1, 8.7, p=0.04). There was no association (HR=1.2; 95% CI: 0.5, 2.6, p=0.68) between self-reported arm swelling and OS. Conclusions These findings suggest that lymphedema may influence survival following breast cancer treatment and warrant further investigation in other cancer cohorts and explication of a potential underlying biology.

When non-significance may be significant : lessons learned from a study of the development, implementation and evaluation of a fleet risk assessment tool

This paper reports on the development and implementation of a self-report risk assessment tool that was developed in an attempt to increase the efficacy of crash prediction within Australian fleet settings. This study forms a part of a broader program of research into work related road safety and identification of driving risk. The first phase of the study involved a series of focus groups being conducted with 217 professional drivers which revealed that the following factors were proposed to influence driving performance: Fatigue, Knowledge of risk, Mood, Impatience and frustration, Speed limits, Experience, Other road users, Passengers, Health, and Culture. The second phase of the study involved piloting the newly developed 38 item Driving Risk Assessment Scale - Work Version (DRAS-WV) with 546 professional drivers. Factor analytic techniques identified a 9 factor solution that was comprised of speeding, aggression, time pressure, distraction, casualness, awareness, maintenance, fatigue and minor damage. Speeding and aggressive driving manoeuvres were identified to be the most frequent aberrant driving behaviours engaged in by the sample. However, a series of logistic regression analyses undertaken to determine the DRAS-WV scale’s ability to predict self-reported crashes revealed limited predictive efficacy e.g., 10% of crashes. This paper outlines proposed reasons for this limited predictive ability of the DRAS-WV as well as provides suggestions regarding the future of research that aims to develop methods to identify “at risk” drivers.