Transformaciones en el empleo y el territorio : El caso San Luis

Los procesos económicos y sociales producen efectos territoriales. Cada territorio expresa dichos procesos de manera específica y distintiva de acuerdo con su historia productiva y con las prácticas y estrategias de los diferentes agentes sociales involucrados en la gestión de los cambios. Si bien estos procesos se enmarcan en un conjunto de tendencias globales que sirven de contexto a las diversas respuestas, en algunos casos estas sólo pueden comprenderse adecuadamente teniendo en cuenta las características distintivas del territorio particular. En la Provincia de San Luis, a lo largo de las últimas dos décadas, la producción del territorio estuvo signada por las transformaciones ocurridas a partir de la puesta en marcha de los planes nacionales de promoción industrial, que afectaron a todas las dimensiones de la vida social. En efecto, esta nueva situación no sólo cambió la orientación productiva de la provincia, sino que impactó también sobre los comportamientos individuales y familiares que, a nivel agregado, determinan el nivel y las fluctuaciones de la dinámica demográfica. Particularmente, se verificó un desplazamiento poblacional hacia los parques industriales de los principales centros urbanos de la provincia y, consecuentemente, un despoblamiento de las áreas rurales. De esta manera, la industrialización tuvo una nueva expresión territorial, que conformó nuevos paisajes de segregación y nuevas formas de exclusión. A mediados de la década de 1990, frente a la finalización de los beneficios promocionales, se implementó una serie de políticas públicas, encaminadas a la búsqueda de nuevos perfiles productivos, que generaron nuevos impactos sobre la organización territorial. Este trabajo propone un análisis de esos procesos, tomando especialmente en cuenta que las transformaciones en el empleo y el territorio se impactan mutuamente. Vale decir: las transformaciones en la competitividad territorial se expresan en problemas de empleo y de mercado de trabajo y, a su vez, los cambios en el empleo generan fuertes cambios en la perspectiva de un área territorial

Care for the old rather than sleepwalk into war in East Asia. CEPS Commentary, 23 June 2014

In view of the demographic dynamics of East Asia, in this commentary Wolfgang Pape makes a plea for a kind of ‘geriatric peace’ in the region rather than further territorial disputes and expensive military build-up.

Determinação de cenários futuros de uso e cobertura do solo e sua influência na vulnerabilidade ambiental : o caso do município de Formosa – GO

Dissertação (mestrado)—Universidade de Brasília, Faculdade de Tecnologia, Departamento de Engenharia Civil e Ambiental, Programa de Pós-Graduação em Tecnologia Ambiental e Recursos Hídricos, 2015.

School Development in Urbanizing Areas

Good schools are essential for building thriving urban areas. They are important for preparing the future human resource and directly contribute to social and economic development of a place. They not only act as magnets for prospective residents, but also are necessary for retaining current population. As public infrastructure, schools mirror their neighborhood. “Their location, design and physical condition are important determinants of neighborhood quality, regional growth and change, and quality of life.”2 They impact housing development and utility requirements among many things. Hence, planning for schools along with other infrastructure in an area is essential. Schools are very challenging to plan, especially in urbanizing areas with changing demographic dynamics, where the development market and housing development can shift drastically a number of times. In such places projecting the future school enrollments is very difficult and in case of large population influx, school development can be unable to catch up with population growth which results in overcrowding. Typical is the case of Arlington County VA. In the past two decades the County has changed dramatically from a collection of bedroom communities in Washington DC Metro Region to a thriving urban area. Its metro accessible urban corridors are among most desired locations for development in the region. However, converting single family neighborhoods into high density areas has put a lot of pressure on its school facilities and has resulted in overcrowded schools. Its public school enrollment has grown by 19% from 2009 to 2014.3 While the percentage of population under 5 years age has increased in last 10 years, those in the 5-19 age group have decreased4. Hence, there is more pressure on the elementary school facilities than others in the County. Design-wise, elementary schools, due to their size, can be imagined as a community component. There are a number of strategies that can be used to develop elementary school in urbanizing areas as a part of the neighborhood. Experimenting with space planning and building on partnership and mixed-use opportunities can help produce better designs for new schools in future. This thesis is an attempt to develop elementary school models for urbanizing areas of Arlington County. The school models will be designed keeping in mind the shifting nature of population and resulting student enrollments in these areas. They will also aim to be efficient and sustainable, and lead to the next generation design for elementary school education. The overall purpose of the project is to address barriers to elementary school development in urbanizing areas through creative design and planning strategies. To test above mentioned ideas, the Joint-Use School typology of housing +school design has been identified for elementary school development in urbanizing areas in this thesis project. The development is based on the Arlington Public School’s Program guidelines (catering to 600 students). The site selected for this project is Clarendon West (part of Red Top Cab Properties) in Clarendon, Arlington County VA.

Crossing frontiers between tourism and demography. An empirical analysis based on European travellers’ behaviour

This paper aims to establish possible tourism demand scenarios of European travellers to Portugal based on the relationship with changing population structures. A combination of the EuROBAROMETER report 370 (“Attitudes of Europeans towards Tourism in 2013”) and the cohort-component method for population projections will allow the development of different possible tourism demand scenarios. Following the European report, individuals who travelled in 2013 were most likely to live in a household with two or more individuals. Thus, if elderly couples are together till later in their life and in better physiological shape, it is possible that the number of elderly individuals travelling for tourism purposes will increase in the near future. If we can expect tourists from developing countries to be younger due to their demographic dynamics than those from developed countries, where the ageing population is growing fast, we can expect that the percentage of the elderly among tourists will increase. Furthermore, the 2013 European report found that the combination of socio-demographic variables, such as, age, population, gender, household dimension, country of residence and trip purpose explained tourism demand scenarios for Portugal, confirming that seniors and families evidence a paramount sense of importance for the destination. In the literature there is a lack of discussion about the effects of demography in the future and the role of an ageing population in tourism demand choice patterns. We aim to contribute to filling this gap. Consequently, we strongly believe that this paper contributes to the literature by introducing a new field of discussion about the importance of demographic changes in shaping travel trends.

Crossing frontiers between tourism and demography. An empirical analysis based on European travellers’ behaviour

This paper aims to establish possible tourism demand scenarios of European travellers to Portugal based on the relationship with changing population structures. A combination of the EUROBAROMETER report 370 (“Attitudes of Europeans towards Tourism in 2013”) and the cohort-component method for population projections will allow the development of different possible tourism demand scenarios. Following the European report, individuals who travelled in 2013 were most likely to live in a household with two or more individuals. Thus, if elderly couples are together till later in their life and in better physiological shape, it is possible that the number of elderly individuals travelling for tourism purposes will increase in the near future. If we can expect tourists from developing countries to be younger due to their demographic dynamics than those from developed countries, where the ageing population is growing fast, we can expect that the percentage of the elderly among tourists will increase. Furthermore, the 2013 European report found that the combination of socio-demographic variables, such as, age, population, gender, household dimension, country of residence and trip purpose explained tourism demand scenarios for Portugal, confirming that seniors and families evidence a paramount sense of importance for the destination. In the literature there is a lack of discussion about the effects of demography in the future and the role of an ageing population in tourism demand choice patterns. We aim to contribute to filling this gap. Consequently, we strongly believe that this paper contributes to the literature by introducing a new field of discussion about the importance of demographic changes in shaping travel trends.

Population dynamics, demographic stochasticity, and the evolution of cooperation

A basic evolutionary problem posed by the Iterated Prisoner’s Dilemma game is to understand when the paradigmatic cooperative strategy Tit-for-Tat can invade a population of pure defectors. Deterministically, this is impossible. We consider the role of demographic stochasticity by embedding the Iterated Prisoner’s Dilemma into a population dynamic framework. Tit-for-Tat can invade a population of defectors when their dynamics exhibit short episodes of high population densities with subsequent crashes and long low density periods with strong genetic drift. Such dynamics tend to have reddened power spectra and temporal distributions of population size that are asymmetric and skewed toward low densities. The results indicate that ecological dynamics are important for evolutionary shifts between adaptive peaks.

Tillering dynamics in palisadegrass swards continuously stocked by cattle

Plant communities on pastures adapt to varying frequencies and severities of defoliation through mechanisms capable of ensuring their longevity and photosynthetic efficiency. The objective of this experiment was to evaluate tiller population density, demographic patterns of tillering and population stability of palisadegrass swards subjected to four grazing intensities. Treatments corresponded to four sward steady state conditions (sward heights of 10, 20, 30 and 40 cm) generated by continuous stocking. Measurements of tiller population density and population dynamics were performed at 4 week intervals and the results were used to calculate tiller appearance, death and survival rates. Tiller appearance and death rate were used to calculate sward stability index. The results indicate that keeping swards low (10 cm or lower) may be prejudicial to persistency and productivity of palisadegrass. The results also indicate that a low tiller population alone should not be considered as an indicator of loss of productive potential and of reduced plant persistency, since swards may be stable even with low population of tillers.

Phylogeography of the cactophilic species Drosophila gouveai: demographic events and divergence timing in dry vegetation enclaves in eastern Brazil

Aim The aim of this study was to assess the causal mechanisms underlying populational subdivision in Drosophila gouveai, a cactophilic species associated with xeric vegetation enclaves in eastern Brazil. A secondary aim was to investigate the genetic effects of Pleistocene climatic fluctuations on these environments. Location Dry vegetation enclaves within the limits of the Cerrado domain in eastern Brazil. Methods We determined the mitochondrial DNA haplotypes of 55 individuals (representing 12 populations) based on sequence data of a 483-bp fragment from the cytochrome c oxidase subunit II (COII) gene. Phylogenetic and coalescent analyses were used to test for the occurrence of demographic events and to infer the time of divergence amongst genetically independent groups. Results Our analyses revealed the existence of two divergent subclades (G1 and G2) plus an introgressed clade restricted to the southernmost range of D. gouveai. Subclades G1 and G2 displayed genetic footprints of range expansion and segregated geographical distributions in south-eastern and some central highland regions, east and west of the Parana River valley. Molecular dating indicated that the main demographic and diversification events occurred in the late to middle Pleistocene. Main conclusions The phylogeographical and genetic patterns observed for D. gouveai in this study are consistent with changes in the distribution of dry vegetation in eastern Brazil. All of the estimates obtained by molecular dating indicate that range expansion and isolation pre-dated the Last Glacial Maximum, occurring during the late to middle Pleistocene, and were probably triggered by climatic changes during the Pleistocene. The current patchy geographical distribution and population subdivision in D. gouveai is apparently closely linked to these past events.

Migration in Afro-Brazilian Rural Communities: Crossing Demographic and Genetic Data

Many studies have used genetic markers to understand global migration patterns of our species. However, there are only few studies of human migration on a local scale. We, therefore, researched migration dynamics in three Afro-Brazilian rural communities, using demographic data and ten Ancestry Informative Markers. In addition to the description of migration and marriage structures, we carried out genetic comparisons between the three populations, as well as between locals and migrants from each community. Genetic admixture analyses were conducted according to the gene-identity method, with Sub-Saharan Africans, Amerindians, and Europeans as parental populations. The three analyzed Afro-Brazilian rural communities consisted of 16% to 30% of migrants, most of them women. The age pyramid revealed a gap in the segment of men aged between 20 to 30 yrs. While endogamous marriages predominated, exogamous marriages were mainly patrilocal. Migration dynamics are apparently associated with matrimonial customs and other social practices of such communities. The impact of migration upon the populations` genetic composition was low but showed an increase in European alleles with a concomitant decrease in the Amerindian contribution. Admixture analysis evidenced a higher African contribution to the gene pool of the studied populations, followed by the contribution of Europeans and Amerindians, respectively.

The Child is father of the man: implications for the demographic transition

We propose a new theory of the demographic transition based on the evidence that body development during childhood is an important predictor of adult life expectancy. This theory is embodied in an OLG framework where fertility, longevity and education all result from individual decisions. The model displays different regimes, allowing the economy to move slowly from an initial Malthusian regime towards the Modern era. The dynamics reproduces the key features of the demographic transition, including the permanent increase in life expectancy, resulting from improvements in body development, the hump in both population growth and fertility, and a late increase in secondary educational attainments.

Yellow fever impact on brown howler monkeys (Alouatta guariba clamitans) in Argentina: a metamodelling approach based on population viability analysis and epidemiological dynamics

In South America, yellow fever (YF) is an established infectious disease that has been identified outside of its traditional endemic areas, affecting human and nonhuman primate (NHP) populations. In the epidemics that occurred in Argentina between 2007-2009, several outbreaks affecting humans and howler monkeys (Alouatta spp) were reported, highlighting the importance of this disease in the context of conservation medicine and public health policies. Considering the lack of information about YF dynamics in New World NHP, our main goal was to apply modelling tools to better understand YF transmission dynamics among endangered brown howler monkey (Alouatta guariba clamitans) populations in northeastern Argentina. Two complementary modelling tools were used to evaluate brown howler population dynamics in the presence of the disease: Vortex, a stochastic demographic simulation model, and Outbreak, a stochastic disease epidemiology simulation. The baseline model of YF disease epidemiology predicted a very high probability of population decline over the next 100 years. We believe the modelling approach discussed here is a reasonable description of the disease and its effects on the howler monkey population and can be useful to support evidence-based decision-making to guide actions at a regional level.

Sex-biased dispersal in a migratory bat: a characterization using sex-specific demographic parameters.

We studied the noctule bat (Nyctalus noctula), in which the mitochondrial F(ST) is about 10 times that revealed by nuclear markers, to address two questions. We first verified whether random dispersal of one sex is compatible with highly contrasted mitochondrial and nuclear population structures. Using computer simulations, we then assessed the power of multilocus population differentiation tests when the expected population structure departs only slightly from panmixia. Using an island model with sex-specific demographic parameters, we found that random male dispersal is consistent with the population structure observed in the noctule. However, other parameter combinations are also compatible with the data. We computed the minimum sex bias in dispersal (at least 69% of the dispersing individuals are males), a result that would not be available if we had used more classical population genetic models. The power of multilocus population differentiation tests was unexpectedly high, the tests being significant in almost 100% of the replicates, although the observed population structure infered from nuclear markers was extremely low (F(ST) = 0.6%).