Introducing a first AIDS vaccine in Switzerland: a Policy Delphi analysis.

This preliminary exploration was limited by a number of factors. The format of the study has necessarily induced some form of selection bias of the panelists, because of the complexity of some questions, and the time required to complete the questionnaires. Several issues have not been addressed. One example could be the response to HIV infection occurring in a vaccinee. The study also did not address the difficulties related to the licensing of the vaccine. Indeed, the proposed scenario assumed that the vaccine had been registered as a starting point for the analysis. Finally, it has not been possible to conduct a sensitivity analysis, in order to evaluate how the responses would have been modified if some important characteristics of the vaccine had been modified.Very diverse evaluations were given in response to questions related with attitudes and perception of AIDS and AIDS vaccine. The possibility that vaccine availability or usage can be associated with an increased frequency in risky behaviors was spontaneously mentioned by half of the panelists. The estimation of the proportion of persons at highest risk who would choose to use this vaccine also indicated a high degree of uncertainty. This study offers important lessons. According to a broad and diverse panel of individuals, an incompletely effective AIDS vaccine would result in an additional level of complexity for the AIDS prevention strategy, rather than a simplification. The use of such a vaccine would have to be coupled with counselling. This implies a sustained emphasis on the recommendations which have been central to the STOP AIDS campaigns until now. In addition, consensual issues, as well as other issues more likely to be controversial have been identified. This should greatly help focusing the work of any committee designated to develop and implement a vaccination policy if an AIDS vaccine became available. Finally, our experience with the Policy Delphi indicates that this mode of structured communication could be usefully applied to other public health issues presenting a high visibility as well as a complex relationship with public perception.

Roles y competencias de los profesionales de la salud laboral para promover la integración de la prevención en la empresa. Un estudio Delphi

Objetivo: Conocer el punto de vista de docentes que forman prevencionistas acerca de cuáles son los roles y competencias necesarios en los profesionales de la salud laboral para promover la integración de la prevención en la empresa.

Indicateurs sécurité en obstétrique : une étude Delphi [Patient safety indicators for obstetrics: a Delphi based study]

OBJECTIVE: Clinical indicators are increasingly used to assess safety of patient care. In obstetrics, only a few indicators have been validated to date and none is used across specialties. The purpose of this study was to identify and assess for face and content validity a group of safety indicators that could be used by anaesthetists, obstetricians and neonatologists involved in labour and delivery units. MATERIALS AND METHODS: We first conducted a systematic review of the literature to identify potential measures. Indicators were then validated by a panel of 30 experts representing all specialties working in labour and delivery units. We used the Delphi method, an iterative questionnaire-based consensus seeking technique. Experts determined on a 7-point Likert scale (1=most representative/7=less representative) the soundness of each indicator as a measure of safety and their possible association with errors and complications caused by medical management. RESULTS: We identified 44 potential clinical indicators from the literature. Following the Delphi process, 13 indicators were considered as highly representative of safety during obstetrical care (mean score</=2.3). Experts ranked 6 of these indicators as being strongly associated to potential errors and complications. CONCLUSIONS: We identified and validated for face and content, a group of six clinical indicators to measure potentially preventable iatrogenic complications in labour and delivery units.

Las Competencias profesionales de los educadores sociales como punto de partida para el diseño curricular de la formación universitaria. Un estudio mediante el método Delphi

En estos últimos años, la universidad española ha estado inmersa en un proceso de transformación de las titulaciones universitarias como consecuencia de la adaptación al espacio europeo de educación superior. Esta transformación se concreta en un cambio de estructura de los ciclos universitarios a la vez que supone una modificación del modelo pedagógico: de un modelo centrado en la enseñanza se pasa a un modelo centrado en el aprendizaje del estudiante. Los planes de estudio de las titulaciones deben estructurarse partiendo de las competencias profesionales que se atribuyen a una determinada profesión. Por ello, la identificación correcta de dichas competencias se convierte en un elemento esencial para el diseño de los títulos. En este artículo presentamos el proceso seguido en la Universidad de Girona (España) para identificar las competencias profesionales de los educadores sociales. Una parte de dicho proceso fue la realización de un estudio en el que, mediante el método Delphi, un panel de expertos valoró y llegó a un consenso sobre cuáles son las competencias profesionales que los educadores sociales en ejercicio desarrollan. El listado ordenado de las competencias de los educadores sociales sirvió como punto de partida para la elaboración del plan de estudios de Educación social de dicha universidad. El propósito del artículo es explicar el proceso seguido y exponer las ventajas de esta información como referente para el diseño de las nuevas titulaciones universitarias

The International Universities Walking Project: Development of a Framework for Workplace Intervention Using the Delphi Technique

Background: This paper aimed to use the Delphi technique to develop a consensus framework for a multinational, workplace walking intervention. Methods: Ideas were gathered and ranked from eight recognized and emerging experts in the fields of physical activity and health, from universities in Australia, Canada, England, the Netherlands, Northern Ireland, and Spain. Members of the panel were asked to consider the key characteristics of a successful campus walking intervention. Consensus was reached by an inductive, content analytic approach, conducted through an anonymous, three-round, e-mail process. Results: The resulting framework consisted of three interlinking themes defined as “design, implementation, and evaluation.” Top-ranked subitems in these themes included the need to generate research capacity (design), to respond to group needs through different walking approaches (implementation), and to undertake physical activity assessment (evaluation). Themes were set within an underpinning domain, referred to as the “institution” and sites are currently engaging with subitems in this domain, to provide sustainable interventions that reflect the practicalities of local contexts and needs. Conclusions: Findings provide a unique framework for designing, implementing, and evaluating walking projects in universities and highlight the value of adopting the Delphi technique for planning international, multisite health initiatives.

The diagnosis of chronic inflammatory demyelinating polyneuropathy: a Delphi-method approach.

The diagnosis of chronic inflammatory demyelinating polyneuropathy (CIDP) is based on a set of clinical and neurophysiological parameters. However, in clinical practice, CIDP remains difficult to diagnose in atypical cases. In the present study, 32 experts from 22 centers (the French CIDP study group) were asked individually to score four typical, and seven atypical, CIDP observations (TOs and AOs, respectively) reported by other physicians, according to the Delphi method. The diagnoses of CIDP were confirmed by the group in 96.9 % of the TO and 60.1 % of the AO (p < 0.0001). There was a positive correlation between the consensus of CIDP diagnosis and the demyelinating features (r = 0.82, p < 0.004). The European CIDP classification was used in 28.3 % of the TOs and 18.2 % of the AOs (p < 0.002). The French CIDP study group diagnostic strategy was used in 90 % of the TOs and 61 % of the AOs (p < 0.0001). In 3 % of the TOs and 21.6 % of the AOs, the experts had difficulty determining a final diagnosis due to a lack of information. This study shows that a set of criteria and a diagnostic strategy are not sufficient to reach a consensus for the diagnosis of atypical CIDP in clinical practice.

Malaria chemoprophylaxis recommendations for immigrants to Europe, visiting relatives and friends--a Delphi method study.

BACKGROUND: Numbers of travellers visiting friends and relatives (VFRs) from Europe to malaria endemic countries are increasing and include long-term and second generation immigrants, who represent the major burden of malaria cases imported back into Europe. Most recommendations for malaria chemoprophylaxis lack a solid evidence base, and often fail to address the cultural, social and economic needs of VFRs. METHODS: European travel medicine experts, who are members of TropNetEurop, completed a sequential series of questionnaires according to the Delphi method. This technique aims at evaluating and developing a consensus through repeated iterations of questionnaires. The questionnaires in this study included questions about professional experience with VFRs, controversial issues in malaria prophylaxis, and 16 scenarios exploring indications for prescribing and choice of chemoprophylaxis. RESULTS: The experience of participants was rather diverse as was their selection of chemoprophylaxis regimen. A significant consensus was observed in only seven of 16 scenarios. The analysis revealed a wide variation in prescribing choices with preferences grouped by region of practice and increased prescribing seen in Northern Europe compared to Central Europe. CONCLUSIONS: Improving the evidence base on efficacy, adherence to chemoprophylaxis and risk of malaria and encouraging discussion among experts, using techniques such as the Delphi method, may reduce the variability in prescription in European travel clinics.

Experts' consensus on use of electronic cigarettes: a Delphi survey from Switzerland.

OBJECTIVES: In some countries, nicotine-containing electronic cigarettes (e-cigarettes) are considered a consumer product without specific regulations. In others (eg, Switzerland), the sale of e-cigarettes containing nicotine is forbidden, despite the eagerness of many smokers to obtain them. As scientific data about efficacy and long-term safety of these products are scarce, tobacco control experts are divided on how to regulate them. In order to gain consensus among experts to provide recommendations to health authorities, we performed a national consensus study. SETTING: We used a Delphi method with electronic questionnaires to bring together the opinion of Swiss experts on e-cigarettes. PARTICIPANTS: 40 Swiss experts from across the country. OUTCOME MEASURES: We measured the degree of consensus between experts on recommendations regarding regulation, sale, use of and general opinion about e-cigarettes containing nicotine. New recommendations and statements were added following the experts' answers and comments. RESULTS: There was consensus that e-cigarettes containing nicotine should be made available, but only under specific conditions. Sale should be restricted to adults, using quality standards, a maximum level of nicotine and with an accompanying list of authorised ingredients. Advertisement should be restricted and use in public places should be forbidden. CONCLUSIONS: These recommendations encompass three principles: (1) the reality principle, as the product is already on the market; (2) the prevention principle, as e-cigarettes provide an alternative to tobacco for actual smokers, and (3) the precautionary principle, to protect minors and non-smokers, since long-term effects are not yet known. Swiss authorities should design specific regulations to sell nicotine-containing e-cigarettes.

Key elements for, and indicators of, a successful transition: an international Delphi study.

PURPOSE: The purpose of this study was to reach an international consensus to determine what key elements should be part of a transition program and what indicators could be used to assess its success. METHODS: For this purpose, a Delphi study including an international panel of 37 experts was carried out. The study consisted of three rounds, with response rates ranging from 86.5% to 95%. At each round, experts were asked to assess key elements (defined as the most important elements for the task) and indicators (defined as quantifiable characteristics). At each round, panelists were contacted via e-mail explaining them the tasks to be done and giving them the Web link where to complete the questionnaire. At Round 3, each key element and indicator was assessed as essential, very important, important, accessory, or unnecessary. A 70% agreement was used as cutoff. RESULTS: At Round 3, more than 70% of panelists agreed on six key elements being essential, with one of them (Assuring a good coordination between pediatric and adult professionals) reaching an almost complete consensus (97%). Additionally, 11 more obtained more than 70% agreement when combined with the Very important category. Among indicators, only one (Patient not lost to follow-up) was considered almost unanimously (91%) as essential by the panelists and seven others also reached consensus when the Very important category was included. CONCLUSIONS: Using these results as a framework to develop guidelines at local, national, and international levels would allow better assessing and comparing transition programs.

Características y funciones para marcas de lugar a partir de un método Delphi

[ES] Introducción. La representación de territorios mediante el uso de marcas es una cuestión recurrente en la sociedad contemporánea que vivimos. Este artículo tiene por objetivo principal determinar algunas de las características y funciones que presentan las marcas asociadas a espacios geográficos. Metodología. Se ha optado por una investigación cualitativa vehiculada a partir de un método Delphi conformado por un panel de catorce expertos en marcas de lugar. Resultados. En relación con las marcas comerciales, se constata que las marcas de lugar, por su naturaleza de bien público, requieren de una gestión más compleja, preferentemente a tres niveles: administración pública, organizaciones privadas y ciudadanía. Conclusiones. En función de los resultados obtenidos, se concluye que la gestión de los lugares se encuentra nuevamente ocupada en la proyección de identidades espaciales singulares, en el marco de una creciente competencia entre territorios.

Experts' consensus on use of electronic cigarettes : a Delphi survey from Switzerland

Objectifs: Dans certains pays, les cigarettes électroniques contenant de la nicotine (e-cigarettes) sont considérées comme des produits de consommation courante, sans régulation spécifique. Dans d'autres (comme en Suisse), la vente d'e-cigarettes contenant de la nicotine est interdite, malgré l'importante demande de nombreux fumeurs de pouvoir les obtenir. Au vu du manque de données scientifiques sur l'efficacité et la sécurité à long-terme de ces produits, les spécialistes de la lutte contre le tabagisme se trouvent divisés sur la question de leur régulation. Afin d'obtenir un consensus parmi ces experts que nous puissions transmettre aux autorités sanitaires, nous avons réalisé une étude d'avis d'experts sur le plan national. Méthode : Nous avons utilisé une méthodologie Delphi, à l'aide de questionnaires électroniques, afin de synthétiser l'opinion d'experts suisses sur la question de la cigarette électronique. Participants : 40 experts suisses représentant l'ensemble de la Suisse. Mesures : Nous avons mesuré le degré de consensus entre les experts au sujet de recommandations touchant à la régulation, la vente et l'utilisation de l'e-cigarette contenant de la nicotine, ainsi que leur opinion générale sur le produit. De nouvelles recommandations et déclarations ont été formulées en tenant compte des réponses et des commentaires des participants. Résultats : Un consensus entre les experts a établi que l'e-cigarette contenant de la nicotine devrait être accessible en Suisse, mais seulement dans des conditions spécifiques. La vente devrait être réservée aux adultes, en utilisant des standards de qualité, une limite de concentration maximale de nicotine, et être accompagnée d'une liste d'ingrédients autorisés. La publicité devrait être restreinte et l'utilisation de l'e- cigarette devrait être interdite dans les lieux publics. Conclusions : Ces recommandations permettent de regrouper trois principes : 1) le principe de réalité, étant donné que le produit est déjà disponible sur le marché ; 2) le principe de prévention, puisque l'e- cigarette procure une alternative au tabac pour les fumeurs actuels, et 3) le principe de précaution, afin de protéger les mineurs et les non-fumeurs, étant donné que les effets à long-terme ne sont pas encore connus. Les autorités suisses devraient mettre en place une législation spécifique afin d'autoriser l'e- cigarette contenant de la nicotine.

Resultados de la implantación de la norma ISO 9000 y el modelo EFQM: conclusiones de un estudio tipo Delphi

Desde el ámbito académico el auge de la Gestión de la Calidad (GC) ha sido analizadoextensamente a través de numerosos estudios de carácter empírico. Una parte importante de estos estudios han tratado de analizar cuáles han sido los principales efectos de laimplantación de estos modelos sobre los resultados o el desempeño (performance) empresarial. Hay que señalar que la mayor parte de dichos estudios son de tipo cuantitativo, basados en la utilización de encuestas dirigidas a los directivos de las empresas que han participado en el proceso de implantación. Ahora bien, el análisis de los efectos de la GC realizado de esta forma, cuenta, a nuestro entender, con una posible debilidad y distorsión metodológica al tomar sólo como base las opiniones de los directivos de las empresas involucradas en el proceso de implantación sobre los efectos del propio proceso y los resultados pueden tener cierto sesgo, tal y como ha sido subrayado por diversos investigadores (ver, por ejemplo, Wayhan et al, 2002 y Heras et al, 2002). Por estos motivos, en el estudio que aquí presentamos hemos considerado necesario utilizar una metodología que tenga en cuenta la opinión de expertos de diversa índole que tienen distintas funciones en la implantación de modelos de GC, de forma que se pueda obtener una información de interés para contrastarla y triangularizarla con la obtenida en estudios empíricos previos llevados a cabo con la metodología tradicional

The purpose and use of passenger ships in 2058 - Future scenarios generated by the Delphi method

The purpose of the thesis is to generate scenarios of future purposes and of use of ships, suitable for STX Finland Cruise Oy to design and build, over a 50 year time span by applying the Delphi method and an open innovation approach in a future workshop. The scenarios were mapped out with help of two Delphi survey rounds and one future workshop. The number of participants in both surveys and the workshop was some twenty experts in each, representing various fields. On the basis of the first survey round, four different subject areas were selected for analysis: purposes for the use of ships; energy efficiency of cruises and ships; cost efficiency of sea transportation and vacation; and the views and expectations of the customers in the future. As a result of the future workshop, four different themes were established, which were studied further during the second Delphi round. The themes are future service and operation concepts; versatile uses of the space in ships; communication of environmental benefits of ships, future energy solutions and social interaction between passengers onboard. In addition to generating the scenarios, further aim of the thesis is to implement the Delphi method and workshop activity as foresight tools for STX Europe and to produce a chart of a future shipbuilding foresight community to can serve the open innovation processes in the maritime cluster as a whole.