Modelo preditivo da criminalidade – georeferenciação ao concelho de Lisboa

Dissertação apresentada como requisito parcial para a obtenção do grau de Mestre em Estatística e Gestão de Informação

The profiling of false identity documents: a promising method to fight identity fraud

Under the influence of intelligence-led policing models, crime analysis methods have known of important developments in recent years. Applications have been proposed in several fields of forensic science to exploit and manage various types of material evidence in a systematic and more efficient way. However, nothing has been suggested so far in the field of false identity documents.This study seeks to fill this gap by proposing a simple and general method for profiling false identity documents which aims to establish links based on their visual forensic characteristics. A sample of more than 200 false identity documents including French stolen blank passports, counterfeited driving licenses from Iraq and falsified Bulgarian driving licenses was gathered from nine Swiss police departments and integrated into an ad hoc developed database called ProfID. Links detected automatically and systematically through this database were exploited and analyzed to produce strategic and tactical intelligence useful to the fight against identity document fraud.The profiling and intelligence process established for these three types of false identity documents has confirmed its efficiency, more than 30% of documents being linked. Identity document fraud appears as a structured and interregional criminality, against which material and forensic links detected between false identity documents might serve as a tool for investigation.

Spatiotemporal analysis of forensic case data: a visualisation approach

Whether for investigative or intelligence aims, crime analysts often face up the necessity to analyse the spatiotemporal distribution of crimes or traces left by suspects. This article presents a visualisation methodology supporting recurrent practical analytical tasks such as the detection of crime series or the analysis of traces left by digital devices like mobile phone or GPS devices. The proposed approach has led to the development of a dedicated tool that has proven its effectiveness in real inquiries and intelligence practices. It supports a more fluent visual analysis of the collected data and may provide critical clues to support police operations as exemplified by the presented case studies.

Des faux documents d'identité au renseignement forensique : développement d'une approche systématique et transversale du traitement de la donnée forensique à des fins de renseignement criminel

La fabrication, la distribution et l'usage de fausses pièces d'identité constituent une menace pour la sécurité autant publique que privée. Ces faux documents représentent en effet un catalyseur pour une multitude de formes de criminalité, des plus anodines aux formes les plus graves et organisées. La dimension, la complexité, la faible visibilité, ainsi que les caractères répétitif et évolutif de la fraude aux documents d'identité appellent des réponses nouvelles qui vont au-delà d'une approche traditionnelle au cas par cas ou de la stratégie du tout technologique dont la perspective historique révèle l'échec. Ces nouvelles réponses passent par un renforcement de la capacité de comprendre les problèmes criminels que posent la fraude aux documents d'identité et les phénomènes qui l'animent. Cette compréhension est tout bonnement nécessaire pour permettre d'imaginer, d'évaluer et de décider les solutions et mesures les plus appropriées. Elle requière de développer les capacités d'analyse et la fonction de renseignement criminel qui fondent en particulier les modèles d'action de sécurité les plus récents, tels que l'intelligence-led policing ou le problem-oriented policing par exemple. Dans ce contexte, le travail doctoral adopte une position originale en postulant que les fausses pièces d'identité se conçoivent utilement comme la trace matérielle ou le vestige résultant de l'activité de fabrication ou d'altération d'un document d'identité menée par les faussaires. Sur la base de ce postulat fondamental, il est avancé que l'exploitation scientifique, méthodique et systématique de ces traces au travers d'un processus de renseignement forensique permet de générer des connaissances phénoménologiques sur les formes de criminalité qui fabriquent, diffusent ou utilisent les fausses pièces d'identité, connaissances qui s'intègrent et se mettent avantageusement au service du renseignement criminel. A l'appui de l'épreuve de cette thèse de départ et de l'étude plus générale du renseignement forensique, le travail doctoral propose des définitions et des modèles. Il décrit des nouvelles méthodes de profilage et initie la constitution d'un catalogue de formes d'analyses. Il recourt également à des expérimentations et des études de cas. Les résultats obtenus démontrent que le traitement systématique de la donnée forensique apporte une contribution utile et pertinente pour le renseignement criminel stratégique, opérationnel et tactique, ou encore la criminologie. Combiné aux informations disponibles par ailleurs, le renseignement forensique produit est susceptible de soutenir l'action de sécurité dans ses dimensions répressive, proactive, préventive et de contrôle. En particulier, les méthodes de profilage des fausses pièces d'identité proposées permettent de révéler des tendances au travers de jeux de données étendus, d'analyser des modus operandi ou d'inférer une communauté ou différence de source. Ces méthodes appuient des moyens de détection et de suivi des séries, des problèmes et des phénomènes criminels qui s'intègrent dans le cadre de la veille opérationnelle. Ils permettent de regrouper par problèmes les cas isolés, de mettre en évidence les formes organisées de criminalité qui méritent le plus d'attention, ou de produire des connaissances robustes et inédites qui offrent une perception plus profonde de la criminalité. Le travail discute également les difficultés associées à la gestion de données et d'informations propres à différents niveaux de généralité, ou les difficultés relatives à l'implémentation du processus de renseignement forensique dans la pratique. Ce travail doctoral porte en premier lieu sur les fausses pièces d'identité et leur traitement par les protagonistes de l'action de sécurité. Au travers d'une démarche inductive, il procède également à une généralisation qui souligne que les observations ci-dessus ne valent pas uniquement pour le traitement systématique des fausses pièces d'identité, mais pour celui de tout type de trace dès lors qu'un profil en est extrait. Il ressort de ces travaux une définition et une compréhension plus transversales de la notion et de la fonction de renseignement forensique. The production, distribution and use of false identity documents constitute a threat to both public and private security. Fraudulent documents are a catalyser for a multitude of crimes, from the most trivial to the most serious and organised forms. The dimension, complexity, low visibility as well as the repetitive and evolving character of the production and use of false identity documents call for new solutions that go beyond the traditional case-by-case approach, or the technology-focused strategy whose failure is revealed by the historic perspective. These new solutions require to strengthen the ability to understand crime phenomena and crime problems posed by false identity documents. Such an understanding is pivotal in order to be able to imagine, evaluate and decide on the most appropriate measures and responses. Therefore, analysis capacities and crime intelligence functions, which found the most recent policing models such as intelligence-led policing or problem-oriented policing for instance, have to be developed. In this context, the doctoral research work adopts an original position by postulating that false identity documents can be usefully perceived as the material remnant resulting from the criminal activity undertook by forgers, namely the manufacture or the modification of identity documents. Based on this fundamental postulate, it is proposed that a scientific, methodical and systematic processing of these traces through a forensic intelligence approach can generate phenomenological knowledge on the forms of crime that produce, distribute and use false identity documents. Such knowledge should integrate and serve advantageously crime intelligence efforts. In support of this original thesis and of a more general study of forensic intelligence, the doctoral work proposes definitions and models. It describes new profiling methods and initiates the construction of a catalogue of analysis forms. It also leverages experimentations and case studies. Results demonstrate that the systematic processing of forensic data usefully and relevantly contributes to strategic, tactical and operational crime intelligence, and also to criminology. Combined with alternative information available, forensic intelligence may support policing in its repressive, proactive, preventive and control activities. In particular, the proposed profiling methods enable to reveal trends among extended datasets, to analyse modus operandi, or to infer that false identity documents have a common or different source. These methods support the detection and follow-up of crime series, crime problems and phenomena and therefore contribute to crime monitoring efforts. They enable to link and regroup by problems cases that were previously viewed as isolated, to highlight organised forms of crime which deserve greatest attention, and to elicit robust and novel knowledge offering a deeper perception of crime. The doctoral research work discusses also difficulties associated with the management of data and information relating to different levels of generality, or difficulties associated with the implementation in practice of the forensic intelligence process. The doctoral work focuses primarily on false identity documents and their treatment by policing stakeholders. However, through an inductive process, it makes a generalisation which underlines that observations do not only apply to false identity documents but to any kind of trace as soon as a profile is extracted. A more transversal definition and understanding of the concept and function of forensic intelligence therefore derives from the doctoral work.

Les pratiques de la police de proximité dans le Canton de Vaud (Suisse) avant la Loi sur la Police Vaudoise du 1er Janvier 2012

En Grande-Bretagne et en Amérique du Nord, la police est une institution publique qui suscite de nombreux travaux académiques. En France, elle est perçue comme un objet sale jusqu’aux travaux de Montjardet. En Suisse, la police est le reflet de la structure fédérale du pays. A travers un cadre réglementaire et légal, chaque canton a organisé sa police. Ainsi, le canton de Vaud s’est doté d’une police cantonale et de polices municipales dont le fonctionnement se fonde sur la proximité. Seules la police cantonale et celle de Lausanne disposent d’une compétence maximale. Bien que la police de proximité soit bien documentée au niveau légal, il n’existe pas de recherche compréhensive sur le fonctionnement de cet ensemble de principes policiers. Ce manque de connaissance pratique est problématique car le canton a entrepris une réforme policière qui est entrée en vigueur au 1er Janvier 2012. Dans ses pratiques liées à l’information, la police de proximité semble s’inspirer de deux modèles incompatibles que sont la police de communauté et l’intelligence led policing. C’est pourquoi, dans cette recherche, nous souhaitons comprendre comment les modèles théoriques trouvent à s’appliquer dans la pratique de la police de proximité. Nous avons opté pour une démarche qualitative semi-dirigée en réalisant 23 entretiens avec des policiers vaudois. L’analyse thématique a été réalisée à l’aide du logiciel Atlas Ti. Trois résultats ont retenu notre attention. Tout d’abord, notre analyse a permis de clarifier la notion de proximité par rapport à celle de communauté tout en tenant compte des particularismes locaux de redevabilité. Ensuite, nous avons identifié les divers circuits de l’information et mis en évidence les divergences dans le vocabulaire lié à l’analyse criminelle. Enfin, il apparaît que la police vaudoise se positionne comme une interface qui coordonne les partenaires susceptibles de résoudre les problèmes de la population.

Using analysis for problem solving : a guidebook for law enforcement /

"Created date: September 14, 2001"--P. [4] of cover.

A descriptive analysis of crime in Quincy (Ill.) /

"June 1984."

The GeoArchive handbook : a guide for developing a geographic database as an information foundation for community policing /

"Funded in part by the Department of Justice, Office of Justice Programs, Bureau of Justice Statistics, Analytic Projects for State-Level Criminal Justice Statistical Analysis Centers (SAC-2 program)."--Verso of t.p.

Multiple paradigms and organisational research: an analysis of work behaviour in the fire service

The thesis examines Kuhn's (1962, 1970) concept of paradigm, assesses how it is employed for mapping intellectual terrain in the social sciences, and evaluates it's use in research based on multiple theory positions. In so doing it rejects both the theses of total paradigm 'incommensurability' (Kuhn, 1962), and also of liberal 'translation' (Popper, 1970), in favour of a middle ground through the 'language-game of everyday life' (Wittgenstein, 1953). The thesis ultimately argues for the possibility of being 'trained-into' new paradigms, given the premise that 'unorganised experience cannot order perception' (Phillips, 1977). In conducting multiple paradigm research the analysis uses the Burrell and Morgan (1979) model for examining the work organisation of a large provincial fire Service. This analysis accounts for firstly, a 'functionalist' assessment of work design, demonstrating inter alia the decrease in reported motivation with length of service; secondly, an 'interpretive' portrayal of the daily accomplishment of task routines, highlighting the discretionary and negotiated nature of the day's events; thirdly, a 'radical humanist' analysis of workplace ideology, demonstrating the hegemonic role of officer training practices; and finally, a 'radical structuralist' description of the labour process, focusing on the establishment of a 'normal working day'. Although the argument is made for the possibility of conducting multiple paradigm research, the conclusion stresses the many institutional pressures serving to offset development.

New challenges for the EU internal security strategy

In recent years, the EU and its member states have experienced a number of changes, as well as challenges, in the areas of politics, economics, security and law. As these areas are interconnected, changes and challenges to any of them have implications for the others, as well as implications for the populations and institutions of the EU or those coming into contact with its international power and influence. This edited collection focuses primarily on security and law, particularly the EU’s internal security strategy. The EU’s Internal Security Strategy, adopted by the Spanish presidency early in 2010, followed the Lisbon Treaty in 2009, building on previous developments within the EU in the Area of Freedom Security and Justice (AFSJ) policy. The focus of the EU Internal Security Strategy is to prevent and combat “serious and organised crime, terrorism and cybercrime, in strengthening the management of our external borders and in building resilience to natural and man-made disasters”. The Internal Security strategy intersects and overlaps with the European Union’s Counter-terrorism strategy, the Strategy for the External Dimension of JHA, and the EU’s Security Strategy. The role of and interaction between these strategies, their supplementing documents, and their implications for crime, victims, the law, political relations, democracy and human rights, form the backdrop against which the chapters in this collection are written. Building on original research by its contributors, this collection comprises work by authors from a wide variety of academic and professional areas and perspectives, as well as different countries, on a variety of areas and issues related to or raised by the EU’s Internal Security Strategy, from intelligence-led policing to human trafficking and port security. This book examines, from a wide variety of disciplinary perspectives including law, geography, politics and practice, both this further refinement of existing internal provisions on cross-border crime, and the increasing external relations of the EU in the AFSJ.

Intégration de méthodes de data mining dans le renseignement criminel : analyse par des structures issues de la théorie des graphes dans le profilage des stupéfiants

Data mining can be defined as the extraction of previously unknown and potentially useful information from large datasets. The main principle is to devise computer programs that run through databases and automatically seek deterministic patterns. It is applied in different fields of application, e.g., remote sensing, biometry, speech recognition, but has seldom been applied to forensic case data. The intrinsic difficulty related to the use of such data lies in its heterogeneity, which comes from the many different sources of information. The aim of this study is to highlight potential uses of pattern recognition that would provide relevant results from a criminal intelligence point of view. The role of data mining within a global crime analysis methodology is to detect all types of structures in a dataset. Once filtered and interpreted, those structures can point to previously unseen criminal activities. The interpretation of patterns for intelligence purposes is the final stage of the process. It allows the researcher to validate the whole methodology and to refine each step if necessary. An application to cutting agents found in illicit drug seizures was performed. A combinatorial approach was done, using the presence and the absence of products. Methods coming from the graph theory field were used to extract patterns in data constituted by links between products and place and date of seizure. A data mining process completed using graphing techniques is called ``graph mining''. Patterns were detected that had to be interpreted and compared with preliminary knowledge to establish their relevancy. The illicit drug profiling process is actually an intelligence process that uses preliminary illicit drug classes to classify new samples. Methods proposed in this study could be used \textit{a priori} to compare structures from preliminary and post-detection patterns. This new knowledge of a repeated structure may provide valuable complementary information to profiling and become a source of intelligence.

Grundriss innovativer Polizeiansätze. Eine kritische Begutachtung verschiedener Strategien und Tätigkeiten und deren Implementierung in der Schweiz in Theorie und Praxis.

This thesis contains three parts. The first one offers the theoretical basement, where the history of the police from their beginning in the early 19th century to this day is shown. The emphasis however is laid on the last 40 years, which gave birth to a multitude of innovations, such as community, problem-oriented, hot-spots or zero-tolerance policing. Those innovations are described in detail and are critically commented. At the end of this section, I present a scheme, where all the approaches are classified as strategic or methodic innovations, but united under a model called "modern policing". The fact that the innovations are not competitive but rather complementary is the most important finding of this examination. The second part of this work deals with a unique survey about the implementation of four innovations and eight problem- and community-oriented activities in 85 Swiss police forces. This explorative study shows that in the last 15 years the Swiss police forces have increasingly adopted innovative approaches. The most frequent innovation is community policing, which has been implemented all over the country. Due to the results, we can also assume that the implementation of the innovations is mostly substantial and profound. However, particularly in the area of problem-solving there is still a need for improvements. The third section consists of a scientific evaluation of a temporary special unit of the municipal police Zurich, which, during nine months, fought against public drug dealing and illegal prostitution in a particular neighborhood called Langstrasse. The effects of this hot-spot project were measured with police data, observations and several population surveys. In general, the special unit achieved a positive outcome and helped to defuse the hot-spot. Additionally, a survey conducted within the police department showed that the personal attitude towards the special unit differed widely between the policemen. We found significant differences between both police regions East and West, rank-and-file and higher ranking officers, different ages and the personal connection to the special unit. In fact, the higher the rank, the lower the age, and the closer the relationship, the more positive the officers were towards the unit.

Study of criteria influencing the success rate of DNA swabs in operational conditions: a contribution to an evidence-based approach to crime scene investigation and triage

DNA is nowadays swabbed routinely to investigate serious and volume crimes, but research remains scarce when it comes to determining the criteria that may impact the success rate of DNA swabs taken on different surfaces and situations. To investigate these criteria in fully operational conditions, DNA analysis results of 4772 swabs taken by the forensic unit of a police department in Western Switzerland over a 2.5-year period (2012-2014) in volume crime cases were considered. A representative and random sample of 1236 swab analyses was extensively examined and codified, describing several criteria such as whether the swabbing was performed at the scene or in the lab, the zone of the scene where it was performed, the kind of object or surface that was swabbed, whether the target specimen was a touch surface or a biological fluid, and whether the swab targeted a single surface or combined different surfaces. The impact of each criterion and of their combination was assessed in regard to the success rate of DNA analysis, measured through the quality of the resulting profile, and whether the profile resulted in a hit in the national database or not. Results show that some situations - such as swabs taken on door and window handles for instance - have a higher success rate than average swabs. Conversely, other situations lead to a marked decrease in the success rate, which should discourage further analyses of such swabs. Results also confirm that targeting a DNA swab on a single surface is preferable to swabbing different surfaces with the intent to aggregate cells deposited by the offender. Such results assist in predicting the chance that the analysis of a swab taken in a given situation will lead to a positive result. The study could therefore inform an evidence-based approach to decision-making at the crime scene (what to swab or not) and at the triage step (what to analyse or not), contributing thus to save resource and increase the efficiency of forensic science efforts.

Change points detection in crime-related time series: an on-line fuzzy approach based on a shape space representation

The extension of traditional data mining methods to time series has been effectively applied to a wide range of domains such as finance, econometrics, biology, security, and medicine. Many existing mining methods deal with the task of change points detection, but very few provide a flexible approach. Querying specific change points with linguistic variables is particularly useful in crime analysis, where intuitive, understandable, and appropriate detection of changes can significantly improve the allocation of resources for timely and concise operations. In this paper, we propose an on-line method for detecting and querying change points in crime-related time series with the use of a meaningful representation and a fuzzy inference system. Change points detection is based on a shape space representation, and linguistic terms describing geometric properties of the change points are used to express queries, offering the advantage of intuitiveness and flexibility. An empirical evaluation is first conducted on a crime data set to confirm the validity of the proposed method and then on a financial data set to test its general applicability. A comparison to a similar change-point detection algorithm and a sensitivity analysis are also conducted. Results show that the method is able to accurately detect change points at very low computational costs. More broadly, the detection of specific change points within time series of virtually any domain is made more intuitive and more understandable, even for experts not related to data mining.

Conceptual knowledge discovery and data analysis

In this paper, we discuss Conceptual Knowledge Discovery in Databases (CKDD) in its connection with Data Analysis. Our approach is based on Formal Concept Analysis, a mathematical theory which has been developed and proven useful during the last 20 years. Formal Concept Analysis has led to a theory of conceptual information systems which has been applied by using the management system TOSCANA in a wide range of domains. In this paper, we use such an application in database marketing to demonstrate how methods and procedures of CKDD can be applied in Data Analysis. In particular, we show the interplay and integration of data mining and data analysis techniques based on Formal Concept Analysis. The main concern of this paper is to explain how the transition from data to knowledge can be supported by a TOSCANA system. To clarify the transition steps we discuss their correspondence to the five levels of knowledge representation established by R. Brachman and to the steps of empirically grounded theory building proposed by A. Strauss and J. Corbin.