The role of qualitative data and systems thinking in addressing service decline in market towns

Retail services are a main contributor to municipal budget and are an activity that affects perceived quality-of-life, especially for those with mobility difficulties (e.g. the elderly, low income citizens). However, there is evidence of a decline in some of the services market towns provide to their citizens. In market towns, this decline has been reported all over the western world, from North America to Australia. The aim of this research was to understand retail decline and enlighten on some ways of addressing this decline, using a case study, Thornbury, a small town in the Southwest of England. Data collected came from two participatory approaches: photo-surveys and multicriteria mapping. The interpretation of data came from using participants as analysts, but also, using systems thinking (systems diagramming and social trap theory) for theory building. This research moves away from mainstream economic and town planning perspectives by making use of different methods and concepts used in anthropology and visual sociology (photo-surveys), decision-making and ecological economics (multicriteria mapping and social trap theory). In sum, this research has experimented with different methods, out of their context, to analyse retail decline in a small town. This research developed a conceptual model for retail decline and identified the existence of conflicting goals and interests and their implications for retail decline, as well as causes for these. Most of the potential causes have had little attention in the literature. This research also identified that some of the measures commonly used for dealing with retail decline may be contributing to the causes of retail decline itself. Additionally, this research reviewed some of the measures that can be used to deal with retail decline, implications for policy-making and reflected on the use of the data collection and analysis methods in the context of small to medium towns.

Secular trends in Klebsiella pneumoniae isolated in a tertiary-care hospital: increasing prevalence and accelerated decline in antimicrobial susceptibility

Abstract: INTRODUCTION Klebsiella pneumoniae has become an increasingly important etiologic agent of nosocomial infections in recent years. This is mainly due to the expression of virulence factors and development of resistance to several antimicrobial drugs. METHODS This retrospective study examines data obtained from the microbiology laboratory of a Brazilian tertiary-care hospital. To assess temporal trends in prevalence and antimicrobial susceptibility, K. pneumoniae isolates were analyzed from 2000 to 2013. The relative frequencies of K. pneumoniae isolation were calculated among all Gram-negative bacilli isolated in each period analyzed. Susceptibility tests were performed using automated systems. RESULTS: From 2000-2006, K. pneumonia isolates comprised 10.7% of isolated Gram-negative bacilli (455/4260). From 2007-2013, this percentage was 18.1% (965/5331). Strictly considering isolates from bloodstream infections, the relative annual prevalence of K. pneumoniae increased from 14-17% to 27-32% during the same periods. A progressive decrease in K. pneumoniae susceptibility to all antimicrobial agents assessed was detected. Partial resistance was also observed to antimicrobial drugs that have been used more recently, such as colistin and tigecycline. CONCLUSIONS Our study indicates that K. pneumoniae has become a major pathogen among hospitalized patients and confirms its recent trend of increasing antimicrobial resistance.

Influence of Quality of Sleep on the Nocturnal Decline in Blood Pressure During Ambulatory Blood Pressure Monitoring

OBJECTIVE: To assess the influence of the quality of sleep on the nocturnal physiological drop in blood pressure during ambulatory blood pressure monitoring. METHODS: We consecutively assessed ambulatory blood pressure monitoring, the degree of tolerance for the examination, and the quality of sleep in 168 patients with hypertension or with the suspected "white-coat" effect. Blood pressure fall during sleep associated with a specific questionnaire and an analogical visual scale of tolerance for ambulatory blood pressure monitoring were used to assess usual sleep and sleep on the day of examination. Two specialists in sleep disturbances classified the patients into 2 groups: those with normal sleep and those with abnormal sleep. RESULTS: Fifty-nine (35 %) patients comprised the abnormal sleep group. Findings regarding the quality of sleep on the day of ambulatory blood pressure monitoring as compared with those regarding the quality of sleep on a usual day were different and were as follows, respectively: total duration of sleep (-12.4±4.7 versus -42.2±14.9 minutes, P=0.02), latency of sleep (0.4±2.7 versus 17±5.1 minutes, P<0.001), number of awakenings (0.1±0.1 versus 1.35±0.3 times, P<0.001), and tolerance for ambulatory blood pressure monitoring (8±0.2 versus 6.7±0.35, P=0.035). An abnormal drop in blood pressure during sleep occurred in 20 (18%) patients in the normal sleep group and in 14 (24%) patients in the abnormal sleep group, P=0.53. CONCLUSION: Ambulatory blood pressure monitoring causes sleep disturbances in some patients, and a positive association between quality of sleep and tolerance for the examination was observed.

SUCLG2 identified as both a determinator of CSF Aβ1-42 levels and an attenuator of cognitive decline in Alzheimer's disease.

Cerebrospinal fluid amyloid-beta 1-42 (Aβ1-42) and phosphorylated Tau at position 181 (pTau181) are biomarkers of Alzheimer's disease (AD). We performed an analysis and meta-analysis of genome-wide association study data on Aβ1-42 and pTau181 in AD dementia patients followed by independent replication. An association was found between Aβ1-42 level and a single-nucleotide polymorphism in SUCLG2 (rs62256378) (P = 2.5×10(-12)). An interaction between APOE genotype and rs62256378 was detected (P = 9.5 × 10(-5)), with the strongest effect being observed in APOE-ε4 noncarriers. Clinically, rs62256378 was associated with rate of cognitive decline in AD dementia patients (P = 3.1 × 10(-3)). Functional microglia experiments showed that SUCLG2 was involved in clearance of Aβ1-42.

Behavioral and psychological symptoms and cognitive decline in patients with amnestic MCI and mild AD: a two-year follow-up study.

BACKGROUND: Mild cognitive impairment (MCI) has been defined as a transitional state between normal aging and dementia. In many cases, MCI represents an early stage of developing cognitive impairment. Patients diagnosed with MCI do not meet the criteria for dementia as their general intellect and everyday activities are preserved, although minor changes in instrumental activities of daily living (ADL) may occur. However, they may exhibit significant behavioral and psychological signs and symptoms (BPS), also frequently observed in patients with Alzheimer's disease (AD). Hence, we wondered to what extent specific BPS are associated with cognitive decline in participants with MCI or AD. METHODS: Our sample consisted of 164 participants, including 46 patients with amnestic (single or multi-domain) MCI and 54 patients with AD, as well as 64 control participants without cognitive disorders. Global cognitive performance, BPS, and ADL were assessed using validated clinical methods at baseline and at two-year follow-up. RESULTS: The BPS variability over the follow-up period was more pronounced in the MCI group than in patients with AD: some BPS improve, others occur newly or worsen, while others still remain unchanged. Moreover, specific changes in BPS were associated with a rapid deterioration of the global cognitive level in MCI patients. In particular, an increase of euphoria, eating disorders, and aberrant motor behavior, as well as worsened sleep quality, predicted a decline in cognitive functioning. CONCLUSIONS: Our findings confirm a higher variability of BPS over time in the MCI group than in AD patients. Moreover, our results provide evidence of associations between specific BPS and cognitive decline in the MCI group that might suggest a risk of conversion of individuals with amnestic MCI to AD.

Pathological substrates of cognitive decline in Alzheimer's disease

The progressive development of Alzheimer's disease (AD)-related lesions such as neurofibrillary tangles,amyloid deposits and synaptic loss within the cerebral cortex is a main event of brain aging.Recent neuropathologic studies strongly suggested that the clinical diagnosis of dementia depends more on the severity and topography of pathologic changes than on the presence of a qualitative marker. However, several methodological problems such as selection biases, case-control design,density-based measures, and masking effects of concomitant pathologies should be taken into account when interpreting these data. In last years, the use of stereologic counting permitted to define reliably the cognitive impact of AD lesions in the human brain. Unlike fibrillar amyloid deposits that are poorly or not related to the dementia severity, the use of this method documented that total neurofibrillary tangles and neuron numbers in the CA1 field are the best correlates of cognitive deterioration in brain aging. Loss of dendritic spines in neocortical but not hippocampal areas has a modest but independent contribution to dementia. In contrast, the importance of early dendritic and axonal tau-related pathologic changes such as neuropil threads remains doubtful. Despite these progresses, neuronal pathology and synaptic loss in cases with pure AD pathology cannot explain more than 50% of clinical severity. The present review discusses the complex structure/function relationships in brain aging and AD within the theoretical framework of the functional neuropathology of brain aging.

Subjective cognitive decline in patients with mild cognitive impairment and healthy older adults: association with personality traits.

AIM: In normal aging, subjective cognitive decline (SCD) might reflect personality traits or affective states rather than objective cognitive decline. However, little is known on the correlates of SCD in mild cognitive impairment (MCI). The present study investigates SCD in MCI patients and healthy older adults, and explores the association of SCD with personality traits, affective states, behavioral and psychological symptoms (BPS), and episodic memory in patients with MCI as compared with healthy older adults. METHODS: A total of 55 patients with MCI and 84 healthy older adults were recruited. Standard instruments were used to evaluate SCD, episodic memory, BPS and affective states. Premorbid and current personality traits were assessed by proxies using the NEO Personality Inventory Revised. RESULTS: Patients with MCI generally reported SCD more often than healthy older adults. SCD was positively associated with depressive symptoms in both groups. With regard to personality, no significant relationship was found in the healthy older group, whereas agreeableness was significantly negatively related to SCD in the MCI group. No significant association was found between SCD and episodic memory. CONCLUSIONS: SCD is more prevalent in patients with MCI than in the healthy elderly, but it does not reflect an objective cognitive impairment. SCD rather echoes depressive symptoms in both patients with MCI and healthy subjects. The negative association of SCD with agreeableness observed in patients with MCI could indicate that MCI patients scoring high on the agreeableness trait would not report SCD in order to prevent their relatives worrying about their increasing cognitive difficulties.

Use of a renal-specific oral supplement by haemodialysis patients with low protein intake does not increase the need for phosphate binders and may prevent a decline in nutritional status and quality of life.

BACKGROUND: Protein-energy wasting is a frequent and debilitating condition in maintenance dialysis. We randomly tested if an energy-dense, phosphate-restricted, renal-specific oral supplement could maintain adequate nutritional intake and prevent malnutrition in maintenance haemodialysis patients with insufficient intake. METHODS: Eighty-six patients were assigned to a standard care (CTRL) group or were prescribed two 125-ml packs of Renilon 7.5(R) daily for 3 months (SUPP). Dietary intake, serum (S) albumin, prealbumin, protein nitrogen appearance (nPNA), C-reactive protein, subjective global assessment (SGA) and quality of life (QOL) were recorded at baseline and after 3 months. RESULTS: While intention to treat analysis (ITT) did not reveal strong statistically significant changes in dietary intake between groups, per protocol (PP) analysis showed that the SUPP group increased protein (P < 0.01) and energy (P < 0.01) intakes. In contrast, protein and energy intakes further deteriorated in the CTRL group (PP). Although there was no difference in serum albumin and prealbumin changes between groups, in the total population serum albumin and prealbumin changes were positively associated with the increment in protein intake (r = 0.29, P = 0.01 and r = 0.27, P = 0.02, respectively). The SUPP group did not increase phosphate intake, phosphataemia remained unaffected, and the use of phosphate binders remained stable or decreased. The SUPP group exhibited improved SGA and QOL (P < 0.05). CONCLUSION: This study shows that providing maintenance haemodialysis patients with insufficient intake with a renal-specific oral supplement may prevent deterioration in nutritional indices and QOL without increasing the need for phosphate binders.

Health intervention and decline in infant mortality rates. Milk depots in Spain (1900-1936)

The role of public health has been a central topic on the classical debate about the historical mortality decline in Europe. One of these health initiatives were the Milk Depots. Spain set up those centres from the late 19th century until the beginning of the Civil War. The goal of this paper is to evaluate the effect of this health intervention on the infant mortality decline during this period. This study works out three kinds of sources: Statistical Yearbooks, Official documents and local records produced by the same Milk Depot. It analyses data available for all the country and one local case such as the Barcelona’s Milk Depot (1904-1935). The main methodological issue deals with the measurement of the effect of the Milk Depot activities on the pattern of changes of infant mortality. Results suggest that Milk Depots have a positive but quite moderate effect on the improving of overall levels of child survival.

Association Between Long-Term Cognitive Decline in Vietnam Veterans With TBI and Caregiver Attachment Style.

OBJECTIVE: To examine whether a caregiver's attachment style is associated with patient cognitive trajectory after traumatic brain injury (TBI). SETTING: National Institute of Neurological Disorders and Stroke, National Institutes of Health, Bethesda, Maryland. PARTICIPANTS: Forty Vietnam War veterans with TBI and their caregivers. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURE: Cognitive performance, measured by the Armed Forces Qualification Test percentile score, completed at 2 time points: preinjury and 40 years postinjury. DESIGN: On the basis of caregivers' attachment style (secure, fearful, preoccupied, dismissing), participants with TBI were grouped into a high or low group. To examine the association between cognitive trajectory of participants with TBI and caregivers' attachment style, we ran four 2 × 2 analysis of covariance on cognitive performances. RESULTS: After controlling for other factors, cognitive decline was more pronounced in participants with TBI with a high fearful caregiver than among those with a low fearful caregiver. Other attachment styles were not associated with decline. CONCLUSION AND IMPLICATION: Caregiver fearful attachment style is associated with a significant decline in cognitive status after TBI. We interpret this result in the context of the neural plasticity and cognitive reserve literatures. Finally, we discuss its impact on patient demand for healthcare services and potential interventions.

Bentho-planktonic evidence from the Austrian Alps for a decline in sea-surface carbonate production at the end of the Triassic

A high-resolution micropalaeontological study, combined with geochemical and sedimentological analyses was performed on the Tiefengraben, Schlossgraben and Eiberg sections (Austrian Alps) in order to characterize sea-surface carbonate production during the end-Triassic crisis. At the end-Rhaetian, the dominant calcareous nannofossil Prinsiosphaera triassica shows a decrease in abundance and size and this is correlated with a increase in delta O-18 and a gradual decline in delta C-13(carb) values. Simultaneously, benthic foraminiferal assemblages show a decrease in diversity and abundance of calcareous taxa and a dominance of infaunal agglutinated taxa. The smaller size of calcareous nannofossils disturbed the vertical export balance of the biological carbon pump towards the sea-bottom, resulting in changes in feeding strategies within the benthic foraminiferal assemblages from deposit feeders to detritus feeders and bacterial scavengers. These micropalaeontological data combined with geochemical proxies suggest that changes in seawater chemistry and/or cooling episodes might have occurred in the latest Triassic, leading to a marked decrease of carbonate production. This in turn culminated in the quasi-absence of calcareous nannofossils and benthic foraminifers in the latest Triassic. The aftermath (latest Triassic earliest Jurassic) was characterised by abundance peaks of ``disaster'' epifaunal agglutinated foraminifera Trochammina on the sea-floor. Central Atlantic Magmatic Province (CAMP) paroxysmal activity, superimposed on a major worldwide regressive phase, is assumed to be responsible for a deterioration in marine palaeoenvironments. CAMP sulfuric emissions might have been the trigger for cooling episodes and seawater acidification leading to disturbance of the surface carbonate production at the very end-Triassic.

In kittiwakes food availability partially explains the seasonal decline in immunocompetence

1. The immune system plays an important role in fitness, and interindividual variation in immunocompetence is due to several factors including food supply. 2. Seasonal variation in food resources may therefore explain why immunocompetence in bird nestlings usually declines throughout the breeding season, with chicks born early in the season receiving more food than chicks born later, and thereby possibly developing a more potent immune system. Although there are studies supporting this hypothesis, none has been experimental. 3. We performed an experiment in the kittiwake Rissa tridactyla by manipulating the food supply of pairs that were left to produce a first brood, and of pairs that were induced to produce a late replacement brood. 4. If food supply mediates, at least partially, seasonal variations in chick immunocompetence, non-food-supplemented chicks would show a stronger seasonal decline in immunocompetence than food-supplemented chicks. 5. Food supplementation improved humoral immunocompetence (the production of immunoglobulins Y), but not T-cell immunocompetence (phytohaemagglutinin, PHA response). T-cell immunocompetence of food-supplemented and non-food-supplemented chicks decreased through the season but to a similar extent, whereas the humoral immunocompetence of non-food-supplemented chicks decreased more strongly than that of food-supplemented chicks. 6. Our results suggest that the seasonal decline in humoral immunocompetence can be explained, at least partly, by variations in food supply throughout the breeding season.

The post-communist fertility puzzle

Fertility has unanimously declined across the entire post-communist region. This study explores the variation in fertility trends over time among these countries and assesses to what degree three explanations are applicable: second demographic transition (SDT), postponement transition (PPT) or reaction to the economic crisis. Moreover, on the basis of SDT and PPT theoretical tenets, as well as descriptive evidence, the economic context is hypothesized to be linked to two processes of fertility decline conversely. The results show that no one theoretical explanation is sufficient to explain the complex fertility declines across the entire post-communist region from 1990 to 2003. In some countries, a great part of the decline in fertility occurred before significant postponement of childbearing began, which indicates that the dramatic decline was due to stopping behavior or postponement of higher order births. Postponement of first births, either through PPT or SDT processes, greatly contributed to fertility decline in a small number of countries. Pooled cross-sectional time-series analyses of age-specific birthrates confirm that these two distinct processes are present and show that the economic crisis explanation has explanatory power for declining birth rates. In contrast, logistic regressions show that the likelihood of postponing childbirth increases with improved economic conditions. These results confirm the importance of taking the economic context into account when discussing explanations for fertility decline. More specifically, the results indicate that the severity and duration of economic crisis, or absence thereof, influenced the extent and manner in which fertility declined.

Therapeutic PD-1 pathway blockade augments with other modalities of immunotherapy T-cell function to prevent immune decline in ovarian cancer.

The tumor microenvironment mediates induction of the immunosuppressive programmed cell death-1 (PD-1) pathway, and targeted interventions against this pathway can help restore antitumor immunity. To gain insight into these responses, we studied the interaction between PD-1 expressed on T cells and its ligands (PD-1:PD-L1, PD-1:PD-L2, and PD-L1:B7.1), expressed on other cells in the tumor microenvironment, using a syngeneic orthotopic mouse model of epithelial ovarian cancer (ID8). Exhaustion of tumor-infiltrating lymphocytes (TIL) correlated with expression of PD-1 ligands by tumor cells and tumor-derived myeloid cells, including tumor-associated macrophages (TAM), dendritic cells, and myeloid-derived suppressor cells (MDSC). When combined with GVAX or FVAX vaccination (consisting of irradiated ID8 cells expressing granulocyte macrophage colony-stimulating factor or FLT3 ligand) and costimulation by agonistic α-4-1BB or TLR 9 ligand, antibody-mediated blockade of PD-1 or PD-L1 triggered rejection of ID8 tumors in 75% of tumor-bearing mice. This therapeutic effect was associated with increased proliferation and function of tumor antigen-specific effector CD8(+) T cells, inhibition of suppressive regulatory T cells (Treg) and MDSC, upregulation of effector T-cell signaling molecules, and generation of T memory precursor cells. Overall, PD-1/PD-L1 blockade enhanced the amplitude of tumor immunity by reprogramming suppressive and stimulatory signals that yielded more powerful cancer control.

A neuropsychological instrument measuring age-related cerebral decline in older drivers: development, reliability, and validity of MedDrive.

When facing age-related cerebral decline, older adults are unequally affected by cognitive impairment without us knowing why. To explore underlying mechanisms and find possible solutions to maintain life-space mobility, there is a need for a standardized behavioral test that relates to behaviors in natural environments. The aim of the project described in this paper was therefore to provide a free, reliable, transparent, computer-based instrument capable of detecting age-related changes on visual processing and cortical functions for the purposes of research into human behavior in computational transportation science. After obtaining content validity, exploring psychometric properties of the developed tasks, we derived (Study 1) the scoring method for measuring cerebral decline on 106 older drivers aged ≥70 years attending a driving refresher course organized by the Swiss Automobile Association to test the instrument's validity against on-road driving performance (106 older drivers). We then validated the derived method on a new sample of 182 drivers (Study 2). We then measured the instrument's reliability having 17 healthy, young volunteers repeat all tests included in the instrument five times (Study 3) and explored the instrument's psychophysical underlying functions on 47 older drivers (Study 4). Finally, we tested the instrument's responsiveness to alcohol and effects on performance on a driving simulator in a randomized, double-blinded, placebo, crossover, dose-response, validation trial including 20 healthy, young volunteers (Study 5). The developed instrument revealed good psychometric properties related to processing speed. It was reliable (ICC = 0.853) and showed reasonable association to driving performance (R (2) = 0.053), and responded to blood alcohol concentrations of 0.5 g/L (p = 0.008). Our results suggest that MedDrive is capable of detecting age-related changes that affect processing speed. These changes nevertheless do not necessarily affect driving behavior.