855 resultados para Decision analysis
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Shared Decision Making (SDM) is widely accepted as the preferred method for reaching treatment decisions in the oncology setting including those about clinical trial participation: however, there is some disagreement between researchers over the components of SDM. Specific standardized coding systems are needed to help overcome this difficulty.
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Nearly 70% of patients with Crohn's disease (CD) undergo surgical resection, with one-quarter subsequently developing clinical recurrence within 12 months. Several options exist for the prevention of postoperative recurrence in CD, but the comparative cost effectiveness of these competing strategies has not been previously analyzed.
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The diagnostic workup of pulmonary embolism (PE) may take several hours. The usefulness of anticoagulant treatment while awaiting the results of diagnostic tests has not been assessed. The objective of this study was to compare the risks and benefits of bid low-molecular-weight heparin vs no treatment in patients with suspected PE.
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The discoveries of the BRCA1 and BRCA2 genes have made it possible for women of families with hereditary breast/ovarian cancer to determine if they carry cancer-predisposing genetic mutations. Women with germline mutations have significantly higher probabilities of developing both cancers than the general population. Since the presence of a BRCA1 or BRCA2 mutation does not guarantee future cancer development, the appropriate course of action remains uncertain for these women. Prophylactic mastectomy and oophorectomy remain controversial since the underlying premise for surgical intervention is based more upon reduction in the estimated risk of cancer than on actual evidence of clinical benefit. Issues that are incorporated in a woman's decision making process include quality of life without breasts, ovaries, attitudes toward possible surgical morbidity as well as a remaining risk of future development of breast/ovarian cancer despite prophylactic surgery. The incorporation of patient preferences into decision analysis models can determine the quality-adjusted survival of different prophylactic approaches to breast/ovarian cancer prevention. Monte Carlo simulation was conducted on 4 separate decision models representing prophylactic oophorectomy, prophylactic mastectomy, prophylactic oophorectomy/mastectomy and screening. The use of 3 separate preference assessment methods across different populations of women allows researchers to determine how quality adjusted survival varies according to clinical strategy, method of preference assessment and the population from which preferences are assessed. ^
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This paper presents a comparison of acquisition models related to decision analysis of IT supplier selection. The main standards are: Capability Maturity Model Integration for Acquisition (CMMI-ACQ), ISO / IEC 12207 Information Technology / Software Life Cycle Processes, IEEE 1062 Recommended Practice for Software Acquisition, the IT Infrastructure Library (ITIL) and the Project Management Body of Knowledge (PMBOK) guide. The objective of this paper is to compare the previous models to find the advantages and disadvantages of them for the future development of a decision model for IT supplier selection.
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The global economic structure, with its decentralized production and the consequent increase in freight traffic all over the world, creates considerable problems and challenges for the freight transport sector. This situation has led shipping to become the most suitable and cheapest way to transport goods. Thus, ports are configured as nodes with critical importance in the logistics supply chain as a link between two transport systems, sea and land. Increase in activity at seaports is producing three undesirable effects: increasing road congestion, lack of open space in port installations and a significant environmental impact on seaports. These adverse effects can be mitigated by moving part of the activity inland. Implementation of dry ports is a possible solution and would also provide an opportunity to strengthen intermodal solutions as part of an integrated and more sustainable transport chain, acting as a link between road and railway networks. In this sense, implementation of dry ports allows the separation of the links of the transport chain, thus facilitating the shortest possible routes for the lowest capacity and most polluting means of transport. Thus, the decision of where to locate a dry port demands a thorough analysis of the whole logistics supply chain, with the objective of transferring the largest volume of goods possible from road to more energy efficient means of transport, like rail or short-sea shipping, that are less harmful to the environment. However, the decision of where to locate a dry port must also ensure the sustainability of the site. Thus, the main goal of this article is to research the variables influencing the sustainability of dry port location and how this sustainability can be evaluated. With this objective, in this paper we present a methodology for assessing the sustainability of locations by the use of Multi-Criteria Decision Analysis (MCDA) and Bayesian Networks (BNs). MCDA is used as a way to establish a scoring, whilst BNs were chosen to eliminate arbitrariness in setting the weightings using a technique that allows us to prioritize each variable according to the relationships established in the set of variables. In order to determine the relationships between all the variables involved in the decision, giving us the importance of each factor and variable, we built a K2 BN algorithm. To obtain the scores of each variable, we used a complete cartography analysed by ArcGIS. Recognising that setting the most appropriate location to place a dry port is a geographical multidisciplinary problem, with significant economic, social and environmental implications, we consider 41 variables (grouped into 17 factors) which respond to this need. As a case of study, the sustainability of all of the 10 existing dry ports in Spain has been evaluated. In this set of logistics platforms, we found that the most important variables for achieving sustainability are those related to environmental protection, so the sustainability of the locations requires a great respect for the natural environment and the urban environment in which they are framed.
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Cover crop selection should be oriented to the achievement of specific agrosystem benefits. The covercrop, catch crop, green manure and fodder uses were identified as possible targets for selection. Theobjective was to apply multi-criteria decision analysis to evaluate different species (Hordeum vulgareL., Secale cereale L., ×Triticosecale Whim, Sinapis alba L., Vicia sativa L.) and cultivars according to theirsuitability to be used as cover crops in each of the uses. A field trial with 20 cultivars of the five specieswas conducted in Central Spain during two seasons (October?April). Measurements of ground cover, cropbiomass, N uptake, N derived from the atmosphere, C/N, dietary fiber content and residue quality werecollected. Aggregation of these variables through utility functions allowed ranking species and cultivarsfor each usage. Grasses were the most suitable for the cover crop, catch crop and fodder uses, while thevetches were the best as green manures. The mustard attained high ranks as cover and catch crop the firstseason, but the second decayed due to low performance in cold winters. Mustard and vetches obtainedworse rankings than grasses as fodder. Hispanic was the most suitable barley cultivar as cover and catchcrop, and Albacete as fodder. The triticale Titania attained the highest rank as cover and catch crop andfodder. Vetches Aitana and BGE014897 showed good aptitudes as green manures and catch crops. Thisanalysis allowed comparison among species and cultivars and might provide relevant information forcover crops selection and management.
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Objective: To determine how small differences in the efficacy and cost of two antibiotic regimens to eradicate Helicobacter pylori can affect the overall cost effectiveness of H pylori eradication in duodenal ulcer disease.
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Mode of access: Internet.
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A fenntarthatóság értékelése definíciószerűen többdimenziós probléma. A megfelelő alternatíva, forgatókönyv, eljárás stb. kiválasztásakor ugyanis a döntéshozóknak egyszerre kell figyelembe venniük környezetvédelmi, gazdasági és társadalmi szempontokat. Az ilyen döntéseket alátámaszthatják a több szempontú döntéshozatali modellek. A tanulmány a több szempontú döntési eljárások közül a legfontosabb hétnek az alkalmazhatóságát vizsgálja részvételi körülmények között. Az utóbbi évek e témában publikált esettanulmányainak áttekintésével megállapítható, hogy egyik módszer sem uralja a többit, azok különböző feltételek mellett eltérő sikerrel használhatók. Ennek ellenére a különböző módszerek kombinációjával végrehajthatunk olyan eljárásokat, amelyekkel az egyes módszerek előnyeit még jobban kiaknázhatjuk. ________ Measuring and comparing the sustainability of certain actions, scenarios, technologies, etc. is by definition a multidimensional problem. Decision-makers must consider environmental, economic and social aspects when choosing an alternative course of action. Such decisions can be aided by multi-criteria decision analysis (MCDA). This paper investigates seven different MCDA methodologies: MAU, the Analytic Hierarchic Process (AHP), the ELECTRE, PROMETHEE, REGIME, and NAIADE methods, and "Ideal and reference point" approaches). It is based on a series of reports in which over 30 real-world case studies focusing on participatory MCDA were reviewed. It is stressed, however, that there is no "best" choice in the list of MCDA techniques. Some methods fit certain decision problems better than others. Nonetheless, some complementary benefits of the different techniques can be exploited by combining these methodologies.
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Planning for complex ecosystem restoration projects involves integrating ecological modeling with analysis of performance trade-offs among restoration alternatives. The authors used the Everglades Landscape Model and Multi-Criteria Decision Analysis to explore the effect of simulated ecosystem performance, risk preferences, and criteria weights on the ranking of three alternatives to restoring overland sheet flow in the Everglades. The ecological model outputs included both hydrologic and water quality criteria. Results were scored in the decision analysis framework, highlighting the trade-offs between hydrologic restoration and water quality constraints. Given equal weighting of performance measures, the alternative with more homogenous sheet flow was preferred over other alternatives, despite evidence of some localized eutrophication risk.
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The advances in three related areas of state-space modeling, sequential Bayesian learning, and decision analysis are addressed, with the statistical challenges of scalability and associated dynamic sparsity. The key theme that ties the three areas is Bayesian model emulation: solving challenging analysis/computational problems using creative model emulators. This idea defines theoretical and applied advances in non-linear, non-Gaussian state-space modeling, dynamic sparsity, decision analysis and statistical computation, across linked contexts of multivariate time series and dynamic networks studies. Examples and applications in financial time series and portfolio analysis, macroeconomics and internet studies from computational advertising demonstrate the utility of the core methodological innovations.
Chapter 1 summarizes the three areas/problems and the key idea of emulating in those areas. Chapter 2 discusses the sequential analysis of latent threshold models with use of emulating models that allows for analytical filtering to enhance the efficiency of posterior sampling. Chapter 3 examines the emulator model in decision analysis, or the synthetic model, that is equivalent to the loss function in the original minimization problem, and shows its performance in the context of sequential portfolio optimization. Chapter 4 describes the method for modeling the steaming data of counts observed on a large network that relies on emulating the whole, dependent network model by independent, conjugate sub-models customized to each set of flow. Chapter 5 reviews those advances and makes the concluding remarks.
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Thesis (Ph.D.)--University of Washington, 2016-08