955 resultados para Decision Sciences(all)


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Aggressive interactions between animals are often settled by the use of repeated signals that reduce the risk of injury from combat but are expected to be costly. The accumulation of lactic acid and the depletion of energy stores may constrain activity rates during and after fights and thus represent significant costs of signalling. We tested this by analysing the concentrations of lactate and glucose in the haemolymph of hermit crabs following agonistic interactions over the ownership of the gastropod shells that they inhabit. Attackers and defenders play distinct roles of sender and receiver that are fixed for the course of the encounter. Attackers perform bouts of 'shell rapping', which vary in vigour between attackers and during the course of the encounter, and are a key predictor of victory. In contrast to the agonistic behaviour of other species, we can quantify the vigour of fighting. We demonstrate, to our knowledge for the first time, an association between the vigour of aggressive activity and a proximate cost of signalling. We show that the lactate concentration in attackers increases with the amount of shell rapping, and that this appears to constrain the vigour of subsequent rapping. Furthermore, attackers, but not defenders, give up when the concentration of lactate is high. Glucose levels in attackers also increase with the amount of rapping they perform, but do not appear to influence their decision to give up. Defenders are more likely to lose when they have particularly low levels of glucose. We conclude that the two roles use different decision rules during these encounters.

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Agonistic interactions between animals are often settled by the use of repeated signals which advertise the resource-holding potential of the sender. According to the sequential assessment game this repetition increases the accuracy with which receivers may assess the signal, but under the cumulative assessment model the repeated performances accumulate to give a signal of stamina. These models may be distinguished by the temporal pattern of signalling they predict and by the decision rules used by the contestants. Hermit crabs engage in shell fights over possession of the gastropod shells that they inhabit. During these interactions the two roles of signaller and receiver may be examined separately because they are fixed for the duration of the encounter. Attackers rap their shell against that of the defender in a series of bouts whereas defenders remain tightly withdrawn into their shells for the duration of the contest. At the end of a fight the attacker may evict the defender from its shell or decide to give up without first effecting an eviction; the decision for defenders is either to maintain a grip on its shell or to release the shell and allow itself to be evicted. We manipulated fatigue levels separately for attackers and defenders, by varying the oxygen concentration of the water that they are held in prior to fighting, and examined the effects that this has on the likelihood of each decision and on the temporal pattern of rapping. We show that the vigour of rapping and the likelihood of eviction are reduced when the attacker is subjected to low oxygen but that this treatment has no effect on rates of eviction when applied to defenders. We conclude that defenders compare the vigour of rapping with an absolute threshold rather than with a relative threshold when making their decision. The data are compatible with the cumulative assessment model and with the idea that shell rapping signals the stamina of attackers, but do not fit the predictions of the sequential assessment game.

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With the increasing pressure on social and health care resources, professionals have to be more explicit in their decision making regarding the long-term care of older people. This grounded theory study used 19 focus groups and nine semi-structured interviews (99 staff in total) to explore professional perspectives on this decision making. Focus group participants and interviewees comprised care managers, social workers, consultant geriatricians, general medical practitioners, community nurses, home care managers, occupational therapists and hospital discharge support staff. The emerging themes spanned context, clients, families and services. Decisions were often prompted by a crisis, hindering professionals seeking to make a measured assessment. Fear of burglary and assault, and the willingness and availability of family to help were major factors in decisions about living at home. Service availability in terms of public funding for community care, the availability of home care workers and workload pressures on primary care services influenced decision 'thresholds' regarding admission to institutional care. Assessment tools designed to assist decision making about the long-term care of older people need to take into account the critical aspects of individual fears and motivation, family support and the availability of publicly funded services as well as functional and medical needs.

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This study confronts a gender bias in research on adolescent pregnancy by exploring adolescent men’s decisions relating to a hypothetical unplanned pregnancy. A cross-sectional survey was conducted with adolescent men (N = 360) aged between 14 and 18 years attending schools in the Republic of Ireland. The study, the first of its kind in Europe, extends the small body of evidence on adolescent men and pregnancy decision-making by developing and examining reactions to an interactive video drama used in a comparable study in Australia. In addition, we tested a more comprehensive range of sociological and psychological determinants of adolescent men’s decisions regarding an unplanned pregnancy. Results showed that adolescent men were more likely to choose to keep the baby in preference to abortion or adoption. Adolescent men’s choice to continue the pregnancy (keep or adopt) in preference to abortion was significantly associated with anticipated feelings of regret in relation to abortion, perceived positive attitudes of own mother to keeping the baby and a feeling that a part of them might want a baby. Religiosity was also shown to underlie adolescent men’s views on the perceived consequences of an abortion in their lives.

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Motorway off-ramps are a significant source of traffic congestion and collisions. Heavy diverging traffic to off-ramps slows down the mainline traffic speed. When the off-ramp queue spillbacks onto the mainline, it leads to a major breakdown of the motorway capacity and a significant threat to the traffic safety. This paper proposes using Variable Speed Limits (VSL) for protection of the motorway off-ramp queue and thus to promote safety in congested diverging areas. To support timely activation of VSL in advance of queue spillover, a proactive control strategy is proposed based on a real-time off-ramp queue estimation and prediction. This process determines the estimated queue size in the near-term future, on which the decision to change speed limits is made. VSL can effectively slow down traffic as it is mandatory that drivers follow the changed speed limits. A collateral benefit of VSL is its potential effect on drivers making them more attentive to the surrounding traffic conditions, and prepared for a sudden braking of the leading car. This paper analyses and quantifies these impacts and potential benefits of VSL on traffic safety and efficiency using the microsimulation approach.

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Recombinant "all-fish" growth hormone gene (GH) was microinjected Into the fertilized eggs of carp. A comparison between the growth traits of transgenics and non-transgenics was carried out, and the transgenic individuals with significant "fast-growing" effect were successfully gained. A comparison on the reproductivities was also given out between the transgenics and their non-transgenic siblings, and showed that the reproductive capacity of transgenics was substantially equivalent to those of the non-transgenics. On the other hand, the genetic separation and the characteristic distribution of the F-1 generation were genetically analyzed, which gave solid evidence for the hypothesis that 2-3 chromosomes are integrated with transgene. In addition, the distinct biological effects for multisite-integrated transgenes were further discussed. The present study opens a door for the breeding of "fast-growing" transgenic fish.

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The sexual health of people, particularly young people, in Northern Ireland is currently poor. Yet there has been little research conducted on sexual attitudes and lifestyles. This paper is based on data from the first ever major research project in this field in Northern Ireland. Using quantitative and qualitative methods, it targeted young people aged 14-25. A combination of a self-administered survey questionnaire, focus group discussions and one-to-one interviews was found to be most suitable for the collection of sensitive data on sexuality in a country where the social and moral climate had previously prevented studies of this nature. Information was collected on sexual attitudes and behaviour generally. This paper focuses on one crucial issue: the age of first sexual encounter. It explores the attitudes of young people to that experience and the use of contraception. Many of the findings match those of similar large-scale surveys in England and Wales, including the modal age of first sexual encounter and the influence of peer pressure on decision-making about first sex. There were significant gender differences in both behaviour and attitudes. It is hoped that the research results will influence future education and health policy, which has all too often been based on ignorance.

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Context: Electronic bibliographic databases are a key source for professional publications about social work and community care more generally. This article describes and evaluates a method of identifying relevant articles as part of a systematic review of research evidence. Decision making about institutional and home care services for older people is used as an example. Method: Four databases (Social Science Citation Index, Medline, CINAHL, and Caredata) that abstract publications relevant to health and social services were searched systematically to identify relevant research studies. The items retrieved were appraised independently using a standard form developed for the purpose. The searches were compared in terms of sensitivity, precision, overlap between databases, and inter-rater reliability. Results: The search retrieved 525 articles, of which 276 were relevant. The four databases retrieved 55%, 41%, 19%, and 1% of the relevant articles respectively, achieving these sensitivities with precision levels of 54%, 48%, 84% and 94%. The databases retrieved 116, 73, 24 and 15 unique relevant articles respectively, showing the need to use a range of databases. Discussion: A general approach to creating a search to retrieve relevant research has been developed. The development of an international, indexed database dedicated to literature relevant to social services is a priority to enable progress in evidence-based policy and practice in social work. Editors and researchers should consider using structured abstracts in order to improve the retrieval and dissemination of research.

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Recent reviews of research regarding children in care have concluded that there remains little research which specifically focuses on young children. This paper presents the findings of research carried out with a sample of young children in care (aged 4-7 years) regarding their perspectives of their circumstances. The findings reveal that they have deeply held views regarding living with risk; removal from their families; unresolved feelings of guilt and loss; and not being listened to. This paper considers the implications of these findings for social work practice. It concludes by stressing the capacity of young children in care to express their perspectives, and the importance of practitioners seeking these views and incorporating them into assessment and decision-making processes.

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‘Risk’ in social work is typically read as risk-of-bads, and specifically extreme bads. This paper develops the implications of the logical objection to attempts to predict low frequency extreme events (such as child homicides). Our argument is that if we focus on these low probability high cost outcomes—these heart wrenching, but unpredictable, tragedies—we take social work away from the good that it can do, leave it open to inappropriate disapprobation, and, in terms of outcomes, do less well by the vulnerable. This point is reinforced by discussion of developments in other academic fields, and by further examination of the logic (and the morality) of protection under uncertainty. We explore the implications for the way social work should be evaluated. A proper academic understanding of risk, and decision making under uncertainty, has, we argue clear practical implications.

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This article examines the work and roles of HR managers in the Irish recession. It tests the validity of three competing views about the future of HR: that the profession needs to become a business partner; that it is knee-deep in a legitimacy crisis; and that it is fragmenting by being unable to cope with the complexity of modern organizational life. Three key findings emerge from the research. First, HR managers have gained greater influence in business decision-making, but much of this influence arises from short-run retrenchment measures. Second, many HR managers remain committed to long established professional values and ideas of good practice. Third, modern HR managers are developing a professional identity that allows them to perform multiple, competing roles. These findings challenge existing arguments about the effects of the current recession. They also speak to ongoing debates about changing HR roles by showing how HR managers remain adept at making pragmatic adaptations to secure their role in organizational life. © The Author(s) 2012.

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Non‐governmental organizations (NGOs) in societies undergoing socio‐economic transition are widely regarded as central to building a civil society that encourages democracy. At the moment, the Bulgarian civil society depends greatly on foreign funding whilst NGOs are unable to empower their beneficiaries in decision‐making. Given this reality, are cross‐national NGO partnerships able to strengthen organisations? What kinds of support are on offer, what kinds of (inter) dependency relations occur and to what extent do NGOs model their management practices on their mentor and with what results?
This paper sets out to situate these questions in the context of a proposed theoretical construct, organizational mentoring, which occurs where national or local organisations have access to and support of well‐established NGOs abroad. The model is constructed on the findings of a qualitative case study conducted in Bulgaria on the development of a Bulgarian NGO and its relationship with a UK NGO. This is preceded by a discussion on selected literature reflecting the meaning of transition, change in societal values and organizational practices in Eastern Europe, and the development of voluntary sector organizations in transforming countries. The theoretical model proposed here is relevant in providing a systematic discussion on organizational change towards a more enlightened engagement between civil society organizations in cross‐national partnerships. Such discussion has implications for the development of hybrid forms of coexistence between Eastern and Western European partners reflected in their interdependent organizational practices.

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This paper argues that the structured dependency thesis must be extended to incorporate political power. It outlines a political framework of analysis with which to identify who gains and who loses from social policy. I argue that public policy for older people is a product not only of social structures but also of political decision-making. The Schneider and Ingram (1993) ‘ target populations’ model is used to investigate how the social construction of groups as dependent equates with lower levels of influence on policy making. In United Kingdom and European research, older people are identified as politically quiescent, but conversely in the United States seniors are viewed as one of the most influential and cohesive interest groups in the political culture. Why are American seniors perceived as politically powerful, while older people in Europe are viewed as dependent and politically weak? This paper applies the ‘target populations’ model to senior policy in the Republic of Ireland to investigate how theoretical work in the United States may be used to identify the significance of senior power in policy development. I conclude that research must recognise the connections between power, politics and social constructions to investigate how state policies can influence the likelihood that seniors will resist structured dependency using political means.