Rumors and stable-cause attribution in prediction and behavior

Two stock-market simulation experiments investigated the notion that rumors that invoke stable-cause attributions spawn illusory associations and less regressive predictions and behavior. In Study 1, illusory perceptions of association and stable causation (rumors caused price changes on the day after they appeared) existed despite rigorous conditions of nonassociation (price changes were unrelated to rumors). Predictions (recent price trends will continue) and trading behavior (departures from a strong buy-low-sell-high strategy) were both anti-regressive. In Study 2, stability of attribution was manipulated via a computerized tutorial. Participants taught to view price-changes as caused by stable forces predicted less regressively and departed more from buy-low-sell-high trading patterns than those taught to perceive changes as caused by unstable forces. Results inform a social cognitive and decision theoretic understanding of rumor by integrating it with causal attribution, covariation detection, and prediction theory. (C) 2002 Elsevier Science (USA). All rights reserved.

How market power affects the behaviour of a pumped storage hydro unit in the day-ahead electricity market?

The integration of large amounts of wind energy in power systems raises important operation issues such as the balance between power demand and generation. The pumped storage hydro (PSH) units are seen as one solution for this issue, avoiding the need for wind power curtailments. However, the behavior of a PSH unit might differ considerably when it operates in a liberalized market with some degree of market power. In this regard, a new approach for the optimal daily scheduling of a PSH unit in the day-ahead electricity market was developed and presented in this paper, in which the market power is modeled by a residual inverse demand function with a variable elasticity. The results obtained show that increasing degrees of market power of the PSH unit correspond to decreasing levels of storage and, therefore, the capacity to integrate wind power is considerably reduced under these circumstances.

Price forecasting in the day-ahead Iberian electricity market using a conjectural variations Arima model

Price forecast is a matter of concern for all participants in electricity markets, from suppliers to consumers through policy makers, which are interested in the accurate forecast of day-ahead electricity prices either for better decisions making or for an improved evaluation of the effectiveness of market rules and structure. This paper describes a methodology to forecast market prices in an electricity market using an ARIMA model applied to the conjectural variations of the firms acting in an electricity market. This methodology is applied to the Iberian electricity market to forecast market prices in the 24 hours of a working day. The methodology was then compared with two other methodologies, one called naive and the other a direct forecast of market prices using also an ARIMA model. Results show that the conjectural variations price forecast performs better than the naive and that it performs slightly better than the direct price forecast.

Environment and Health in Children Day Care Centres (ENVIRH) - Study Rationale and Protocol

Background: Indoor air quality (IAQ) is considered an important determinant of human health. The association between exposure to volatile organic compounds, particulate matter, house dust mite, molds and bacteria in day care centers (DCC) is not completely clear. The aim of this project was to study these effects. Methods --- study design: This study comprised two phases. Phase I included an evaluation of 45 DCCs (25 from Lisbon and 20 from Oporto, targeting 5161 children). In this phase, building characteristics, indoor CO2 and air temperature/relative humidity, were assessed. A children’s respiratory health questionnaire derived from the ISAAC (International Study on Asthma and Allergies in Children) was also distributed. Phase II encompassed two evaluations and included 20 DCCs selected from phase I after a cluster analysis (11 from Lisbon and 9 from Oporto, targeting 2287 children). In this phase, data on ventilation, IAQ, thermal comfort parameters, respiratory and allergic health, airway inflammation biomarkers, respiratory virus infection patterns and parental and child stress were collected. Results: In Phase I, building characteristics, occupant behavior and ventilation surrogates were collected from all DCCs. The response rate of the questionnaire was 61.7% (3186 children). Phase II included 1221 children. Association results between DCC characteristics, IAQ and health outcomes will be provided in order to support recommendations on IAQ and children’s health. A building ventilation model will also be developed. Discussion: This paper outlines methods that might be implemented by other investigators conducting studies on the association between respiratory health and indoor air quality at DCC.

Biological behavior of Trypanosoma cruzi stocks obtained from the state of Amazonas, Western Brazilian Amazon, in mice

INTRODUCTION: The biological diversity of circulating Trypanosoma cruzi stocks in the Amazon region most likely plays an important role in the peculiar clinic-epidemiological features of Chagas disease in this area. METHODS: Seven stocks of T. cruzi were recently isolated in the State of Amazonas, Brazil, from humans, wild mammals, and triatomines. They belonged to the TcI and Z3 genotypes and were biologically characterized in Swiss mice. Parasitological and histopathological parameters were determined. RESULTS: Four stocks did not promote patent parasitemia in mice. Three stocks produced low parasitemia, long pre-patent periods, and a patent period of 1 day or oscillating parasitemia. Maximum parasitemia ranged from 1,400 to 2,800 trypomastigotes/0.1mL blood. Mice inoculated with the T. cruzi stocks studied showed low positivity during fresh blood examinations, ranging from 0% to 28.6%. In hemoculture, positivity ranged from 0% to 100%. Heart tissue parasitism was observed in mice inoculated with stocks AM49 and AM61. Stock AM49 triggered a moderate inflammatory process in heart tissue. A mild inflammatory process was observed in heart tissue for stocks AM28, AM38, AM61, and AM69. An inflammatory process was frequently observed in skeletal muscle. Examinations of brain tissue revealed inflammatory foci and gliosis in mice inoculated with stock AM49. CONCLUSIONS: Biological and histopathological characterization allowed us to demonstrate the low infectivity and virulence of T. cruzi stocks isolated from the State of Amazonas.

Behavior of inflammatory markers of myocardial injury in cardiac surgery: laboratory correlation with the clinical picture of postpericardiotomy syndrome

OBJECTIVE: To verify the association of serum markers of myocardial injury, such as troponin I, creatinine kinase, and creatinine kinase isoenzyme MB, and inflammatory markers, such as tumor necrosis factor alpha (TNF-alpha), C-reactive protein, and the erythrocyte sedimentation rate in the perioperative period of cardiac surgery, with the occurrence of possible postpericardiotomy syndrome. METHODS: This was a cohort study with 96 patients undergoing cardiac surgery assessed at the following 4 different time periods: the day before surgery (D0); the 3rd postoperative day (D3); between the 7th and 10th postoperative days (D7-10); and the 30th postoperative day (D30). During each period, we evaluated demographic variables (sex and age), surgical variables (type and duration , extracorporeal circulation), and serum dosages of the markers of myocardial injury and inflammatory response. RESULTS: Of all patients, 12 (12.5%) met the clinical criteria for a diagnosis of postpericardiotomy syndrome, and their mean age was 10.3 years lower than the age of the others (P=0.02). The results of the serum markers for tissue injury and inflammatory response were not significantly different between the 2 assessed groups. No significant difference existed regarding either surgery duration or extracorporeal circulation. CONCLUSION: The patients who met the clinical criteria for postpericardiotomy syndrome were significantly younger than the others were. Serum markers for tissue injury and inflammatory response were not different in the clinically affected group, and did not correlate with the different types and duration of surgery or with extracorporeal circulation.

Behavior at a nest of Amazilia lactea (Aves, Trochilidae)

The hummingbird Amazilia lactea (Lesson, 1832) built a nest in São Paulo, Brazil, in the spring (Oct) and added lichens during incubation. The female incubated over 70 per cent of the day, 1-56 min per visit, and brooded two small young somewhat less; brooding stopped by about 10 days of age, as did night brooding. Lack of night brooding for large young hummingbirds may reflect lack of space in a small nest. Young stayed in the nest 19 days. Feedings were widely spaced, and presence of possible predators caused alarm.

Oviposition behavior of Zabrotes subfasciatus females (Coleoptera, Bruchidae) under conditions of host deprivation

Oviposition of Zabrotes subfasciatus (Boheman, 1833) on Phaseolus vulgaris (Linnaeus, 1753) was studied immediately after emergence of the adults throughout the females life and in situations of host deprivation lasting for 1 to 10 days. The number of eggs laid daily, longevity, duration of oviposition and distribution of eggs per grain were studied. The number of eggs laid per day varied significantly, with the oviposition peak in the presence of the host (control group) occurring between day 2 and day 5 of oviposition. In the absence of the host, a shift in the oviposition peak to the first day after deprivation was observed, except for the group deprived for one day which showed a peak between days 1 and 4 after introduction of the host. The distribution of the eggs per grain in the control group and in the groups deprived of the host for 2, 5, 8 and 10 days, a larger egg aggregation was observed for all deprived groups compared to the control group.

Oviposition behavior of wild Zabrotes subfasciatus (Coleoptera, Chrysomelidae) females deprived of the host Phaseolus vulgaris (Fabaceae)

The insects oviposition behavior is fundamental to study population dynamics, life history evolution, insect-plant and parasitoid-host interactions. Zabrotes subfasciatus (Boheman, 1833) females oviposition behavior in the presence and absence of a host is unknown. The main objective of this study was to describe in detail the oviposition behavior of host deprived or non-deprived females, and observe how the several situations of deprivation (days without host) influence oviposition. Six groups were assembled, three deprived of the host (for 2, 5 and 8 days) and three control groups (with host), each containing one newly-emerged couple (0-24h) of wild Z. subfasciatus, The non-deprived (control) groups received the hosts every day (5 bean seeds Phaseolus vulgaris (Fabaceae)) and the others were deprived for 2, 5 and 8 days, respectively. For each group 12 repetitions were made. Consequently, 12 couples were host deprived during two days, 12 couples were host deprived during five days and 12 couples were host deprived during eight days. When the seeds of the deprived groups were added the experiments started. There was a control group for each deprived group. The experiments and the insects were maintained at constant temperature 29 ± 2ºC and 70-80% relative humidity. At 15 minutes interval, the number of times the females manifested the different categories of behavior was observed (frequency). The behavior categories were: rest inside the box, locomotion, resource exploration (seeds), copulation and oviposition. The deprived females stayed most of the time in contact with the host to carry out oviposition, while the non-deprived (control) females spent most of the time at rest. This was observed in all the deprivation times. The results show that host deprivation influences the oviposition behavior of the studied species and also shows the flexibility in the oviposition strategies that these females present when the environment changes (absence and presence of resources)

First nesting record of the Bay-Capped Wren-Spinetail Spartonoica maluroides (Aves, Furnariidae) in Brazil, with nest and nestling descriptions and notes on breeding behavior

The only breeding record of Spartonoica maluroides (d'Orbigny & Lafresnaye, 1837) for Brazil is based on the observation of a fledgling in southern Rio Grande do Sul in January 1976. On 7 December 2005 we discovered a nest containing three nestlings at the southeastern end of Lagoa Pequena, municipality of Pelotas, Rio Grande do Sul. The nest was concealed at the base of a cavity in a Spartina densiflora (Poaceae) tussock located at the edge of a saltmarsh. The nest was built of fine pieces of dead Scirpus olneyi (Cyperaceae) and S. densiflora leaves firmly interlaced to the internal leaves of the tussock. Live leaves of S. densiflora lining the cavity comprised a substantial part of the nest's architecture, forming most of its upper lateral walls and roof. The lower section was more elaborate, resembling a deep cup and forming a distinct incubation chamber. Adults reached the nest's interior through an irregular apical opening amidst the leaves. The nest was 244 mm high and 140 mm wide. The incubation chamber had an external diameter of 138.5 mm, an internal diameter of 79.4 mm and was 86 mm deep. It was lined with fine leaves and white plant fibers. Nestlings were five to six days old. A total of 107 neossoptiles restricted to the capital, spinal and alar tracts were recorded in one nestling. The distribution of neossoptiles in the ocular region of S. maluroides forms a distinct pattern which can be typical of Furnariidae and related families. Two adults attended the nest, bringing small insects to the nestlings and removing fecal sacs. We recorded at least 74 visits to the nest during a ca. 6 h period during an afternoon. The average number of visits per hour was 12.8 ± 1.3. An adult bird spent on average 0.7 ± 0.56 minutes inside the nest attending nestlings. The nest remained unattended on average for 3.61 ± 3.13 minutes. The hour of the day had no influence on the amount of time spent by an adult in the nest or away from it. We returned to the area on 15 December 2005 and found the nest abandoned. Observations confirm that S. maluroides is a resident breeder in southern Brazil and that the saltmarshes of the Lagoa do Patos estuary are an important year-round habitat for the species. A nestling and the nest were collected to document the record.

Behavior of triatomines (Hemiptera: Reduviidae) vectors of Chagas' disease: I. Courtship and copulation of Panstrongylus megistus (Burm-1835) in the laboratory

A study of the courship and copulation behaviour of Panstrongylus megistus was carried out in the laboratory. fifty-five newly-fed virgin couples were used. Experiments were performed during the day (9:00 to 12:00 a.m.) and at night (7:00 to 10:00 p.m). Behaviour was recorded by direct observation and was found to consist of the following sequence of behavioral patterns: the male approached the female and jumped on her or mounted her; he took on a dorsolateral position and immobilized the female dorsally and ventrally with his three pairs of legs; the male genital was placed below those of the female; the paramers of the male immobilized the female's genitals; copulation started. The couple joined by the iniciative of the male. The female could be receptive and accept copulation, or nonreceptive and reject the male. Copulation occurred more often on the occasion of the first attempt by the male. Duration of copulation was X = 29.3 ± 9.3 min (CV = 83%). No behavioral differences were observed couples tested during the day or at night.

Five-day plan for smoking cessation using group behaviour therapy.

The "Five-Day Plan to Stop Smoking" (FDP) is an educational group technique for smoking cessation. We studied a cohort of 123 smokers (55 men, 68 women, mean age 42 years) who participated in 11 successive FDP sessions held in Switzerland between 1995 and 1998 and who were followed up for at least 12 months by telephone or direct interview. Overall, 102 of the 123 subjects (83%) had stopped smoking by the end of the FDP, and self-declared smoking cessation rate was 25% after one year. The following factors potentially associated with outcome were studied: age, sex, smoking habit duration, cigarettes per day, Fagerström Test for Nicotine Dependence (FTND), group size, and medical presence among the group leaders. Smoking habit duration was the only variable which showed a statistically significant association with success: the rate of smoking cessation was higher among patients who had smoked for less than 20 years (34.7% vs. 18.9%, p = 0.049). Stress was the most common cause of relapse. The FDP appears to be an effective smoking cessation therapy. Propositions are made in order to improve the success rate of future sessions.

Studies on survival, biological activities and behavior of Biomphalaria glabrata, the host snail of Schistosomiasis, submitted to increased hydrostatic pressure: a technique

To study changes in survival, in biological activities and behavior of planorbids submitted to increased hydrostatic pressure, we developed a technique using two transparent chambers and a hydraulic piston. The apparatus permitted renewal of the liquid medium without substantial variations in pressure, thus eliminating excretion products and maintaining the desired O2 level and thereby permitting us to evaluate the effects of pressure independently of the occurrence of anoxia. Pressure was maintained without any contact of the liquid medium with compressed air, a situation which reproduced with relative fidelity what occurs in nature and assured the presence of the same amounts of gases in the two observation chambers (Control and Experimental). Biomphalaria glabrata was found to be able to survive at least 48 hours when submitted to 49.02 x 10**4 Pa (equivalent to a water depth of 48.8 m), continuing to day egg masses and showing few behavioral changes when compared with the control group.

Transient stimulation of glucose metabolism by insulin in the 1-day chick embryo.

Effects of insulin upon glucose metabolism were investigated in chick embryos explanted in vitro during the first 30 h of incubation. Insulin stimulated the glucose consumption of the chick gastrula (18 h) and neurula (24 h), but had no effect on the late blastula (0 h:laying) and on the stage of six to eight somites (30 h). The increase in glucose consumption concerned both the embryonic area pellucida (AP) and extraembryonic area opaca (AO). AP responded to a greater extent (50%) and at a lower range of concentrations (0.1-1.0 ng/ml) than AO (30%; 1-100 ng/ml). Insulin had no effect on the oxygen consumption of blastoderms, whereas it stimulated the aerobic lactate production (approximately 70% of the additional glucose consumption was converted to lactate). The nanomolar range of stimulating concentrations suggests that insulin has a specific effect in the chick embryo, and that it could modulate glucose metabolism in ovo as well. The transient sensitivity of the embryo to insulin is discussed in relation to behavior of mesodermal cells.

A dynamic assessment of medication-taking behavior during pregnancy and postpartum: should cART adherence be reinforced during postpartum?

This study compared adherence (persistence and execution) during pregnancy and postpartum in HIV-positive women having taken part in the adherence-enhancing program of the Community Pharmacy of the Department of Ambulatory Care and Community Medicine in Lausanne between 2004 and 2012. This interdisciplinary program combined electronic drug monitoring and semi-structured, repeated motivational interviews. This was a retrospective, observational study. Observation period spread over from first adherence visit after last menstruation until 6 months after childbirth. Medication-taking was recorded by electronic drug monitoring. Socio-demographic and delivery data were collected from Swiss HIV Cohort database. Adherence data, barriers and facilitators were collected from pharmacy database. Electronic data were reconciled with pill-count and interview notes in order to include reported pocket-doses. Execution was analyzed over 3-day periods by a mixed effect logistic model, separating time before and after childbirth. This model allowed us to estimate different time slopes for both periods and to show a sudden fall associated with childbirth. Twenty-five pregnant women were included. Median age was 29 (IQR: 26.5, 32.0), women were in majority black (n_17,68%) and took a cART combining protease and nucleoside reverse transcriptase inhibitors (n_24,96%). Eleven women (44%) were ART-naı¨ve at the beginning of pregnancy. Twenty women (80%) were included in the program because of pregnancy. Women were included at all stages of pregnancy. Six women (24%) stopped the program during pregnancy, 3 (12%) at delivery, 4 (16%) during postpartum and 12 (48%) stayed in program at the end of observation time. Median number of visits was 4 (3.0, 6.3) during pregnancy and 3 (0.8, 6.0) during postpartum. Execution was continuously high during pregnancy, low at beginning of postpartum and increased gradually during the 6 months of postpartum. Major barriers to adherence were medication adverse events and difficulties in daily routine. Facilitators were motivation for promoting child-health and social support. The dramatic drop and very slow increase in cART adherence during postpartum might result in viral rebound and drug resistance. Although much attention is devoted to pregnant women, interdisciplinary care should also be provided to women in the community during first trimester of postpartum to support them in sustaining cART adherence.