Can the carbon isotopic composition of methane be reconstructed from multi-site firn air measurements?

Methane is a strong greenhouse gas and large uncertainties exist concerning the future evolution of its atmospheric abundance. Analyzing methane atmospheric mixing and stable isotope ratios in air trapped in polar ice sheets helps in reconstructing the evolution of its sources and sinks in the past. This is important to improve predictions of atmospheric CH4 mixing ratios in the future under the influence of a changing climate. The aim of this study is to assess whether past atmospheric δ13C(CH4) variations can be reliably reconstructed from firn air measurements. Isotope reconstructions obtained with a state of the art firn model from different individual sites show unexpectedly large discrepancies and are mutually inconsistent. We show that small changes in the diffusivity profiles at individual sites lead to strong differences in the firn fractionation, which can explain a large part of these discrepancies. Using slightly modified diffusivities for some sites, and neglecting samples for which the firn fractionation signals are strongest, a combined multi-site inversion can be performed, which returns an isotope reconstruction that is consistent with firn data. However, the isotope trends are lower than what has been concluded from Southern Hemisphere (SH) archived air samples and high-accumulation ice core data. We conclude that with the current datasets and understanding of firn air transport, a high precision reconstruction of δ13C of CH4 from firn air samples is not possible, because reconstructed atmospheric trends over the last 50 yr of 0.3–1.5 ‰ are of the same magnitude as inherent uncertainties in the method, which are the firn fractionation correction (up to ~2 ‰ at individual sites), the Kr isobaric interference (up to ~0.8 ‰, system dependent), inter-laboratory calibration offsets (~0.2 ‰) and uncertainties in past CH4 levels (~0.5 ‰).

In-situ Iron isotope measurements and mineral compositions from ODP Hole 206-1256D and IODP Hole 335-U1256D

In-situ Fe isotope measurements have been carried out to estimate the impact of the hydrothermal metamorphic overprint on the Fe isotopic composition of Fe-Ti-oxides and Fe-sulfides of the different lithologies of the drilled rocks from IODP Hole 1256D (eastern equatorial Pacific; 15 Ma crust formed at the East Pacific Rise). Most igneous rocks normally have a very restricted range in their 56Fe/54Fe ratio. In contrast, Fe isotope compositions of hot fluids (> 300 °C) from mid-ocean-ridge spreading centers define a narrow range that is shifted to lower delta 56Fe values by 0.2 per mil - 0.5 per mil as compared to igneous rocks. Therefore, it is expected that mineral phases that contain large amounts of Fe are especially affected by the interaction with a fluid that fractionates Fe isotopes during exsolution/precipitation of those minerals. We have used a femtosecond UV-Laser ablation system to determine mineral 56Fe/54Fe ratios of selected samples with a precision of < 0.1 per mil (2 sigma level) at micrometer-scale. We have found significant variations of the delta 56Fe (IRMM-014) values in the minerals between different samples as well as within samples and mineral grains. The overall observed scale of delta 56Fe (magnetite) in 1256D rocks ranges from - 0.12 to + 0.64 per mil, and of delta 56Fe (ilmenite) from - 0.77 to + 0.01 per mil. Pyrite in the lowermost sheeted dike section is clearly distinguishable from the other investigated lithological units, having positive delta 56Fe values between + 0.29 and + 0.56 per mil, whereas pyrite in the other samples has generally negative delta 56Fe values from - 1.10 to - 0.59 permil. One key observation is that the temperature dependent inter-mineral fractionations of Fe isotopes between magnetite and ilmenite are systematically shifted towards higher values when compared to theoretically expected values, while synthesized, well equilibrated magnetite-ilmenite pairs are compatible with the theoretical predictions. Theoretical considerations including beta-factors of different aqueous Fe-chlorides and Rayleigh-type fractionations in the presence of a hydrous, chlorine-bearing fluid can explain this observation. The disagreement between observed and theoretical equilibrium fractionation, the fact that magnetite, in contrast to ilmenite shows a slight downhole trend in the delta 56Fe values, and the observation of small scale heterogeneities within single mineral grains imply that a general re-equilibration of the magnetite-ilmenite pairs is overprinted by kinetic fractionation effects, caused by the interaction of magnetite/ilmenite with hydrothermal fluids penetrating the upper oceanic crust during cooling, or incomplete re-equilibration at low temperatures. Furthermore, the observation of significant small-scale variations in the 56Fe/54Fe ratios of single minerals in this study highlights the importance of high spatial-resolution-analyses of stable isotope ratios for further investigations.

Railway Rapid Transit timetables with variable and elastic demand.

This paper focuses on the design of railway timetables considering a variable elastic demand profile along a whole design day. Timetabling is the third stage in the classical hierarchical railway planning process. Most of previous works on this topic consider a uniform demand behavior for short planning intervals. In this paper, we propose a MINLP model for designing non-periodic timetables on a railway corridor where demand is dependent on waiting times. In the elastic demand case, long waiting times lead to a loss of passengers, who may select an alternative transportation mode. The mode choice is modeled using two alternative methods. The first one is based on a sigmoid function and can be used in case of absence of information for competitor modes. In the second one, the mode choice probability is obtained using a Logit model that explicitly considers the existence of a main alternative mode. With the purpose of obtaining optimal departure times, in both cases, a minimization of the loss of passengers is used as objective function. Finally, as illustration, the timetabling MINLP model with both mode choice methods is applied to a real case and computational results are shown.

Earthquake statistics in a Block Slider Model and a fully dynamic Fault Model

We examine the event statistics obtained from two differing simplified models for earthquake faults. The first model is a reproduction of the Block-Slider model of Carlson et al. (1991), a model often employed in seismicity studies. The second model is an elastodynamic fault model based upon the Lattice Solid Model (LSM) of Mora and Place (1994). We performed simulations in which the fault length was varied in each model and generated synthetic catalogs of event sizes and times. From these catalogs, we constructed interval event size distributions and inter-event time distributions. The larger, localised events in the Block-Slider model displayed the same scaling behaviour as events in the LSM however the distribution of inter-event times was markedly different. The analysis of both event size and inter-event time statistics is an effective method for comparative studies of differing simplified models for earthquake faults.

A Modified Model of Risk Business

2000 Mathematics Subject Classification: 60K10, 62P05

Sedimentology of sites 14-141, 41-366, 47-397 and 79-544B

Along the N-S-transect of DSDP-Sites 5446, 397, 141, and 366, oxygen and carbon isotopes, flux rates of calcium carbonate, terrigenous matter, and biogenic opal, clay minerals and the size distribution of terrigenous partictes were determined in order to assess the ties between atmospheric and oceanic surface and deep-water circulation off northwest Africa during the late Neogene. During the last 9 m.y., both the paleoceanography in the eastern Atlantic and west African paleodimates were intimately correlated with the evolution of the polar ice sheets as reflected in the benthos d18O curves of the 4 DSDP-Sites. These records make it possible to distinguish six major time intervals which were charaterized by long-term persistent regimes of climatic stability or climatic change. Short-term, "Milankovitch"-type cycles superimpose the long-term climatic evolution and may reflect the chronostratigraphic control fluctuations of the solar insolation persisting back to pre-Pleistocene times. Relatively stable, warm climates prevailed during the late Tortonian/early Messinean, 9 to 6 m.y., and the early Pliocene, 4.5 to 3.5 m.y. ago. Based on d18O curves, the amplitudes of short-term climatic variation were generally low, and the ice sheets were smaller than during peak Holocene time. Oceanic circulation and resulting paleoproductivity in upwelling zones were insignificant. The strength of dust supplying meridional trade winds was low (3 to 5 m/s), interglacial-style zonal winds near the ITCZ were dominant, as indicated by the high abundance of kaolinite. Phases of fluvial sediment supply were common. Humidity was characteristic of the climate in northwest Africa for the major part of this time. Major episodes of climatic deterioration in the subtropics occurred in the latest Miocene/early Pliocene, between some 5.6 and 5.2 and between 4.9 and 4.6 m.y. ago, in the late Pliocene, between 3.2 and 2.4 m.y. ago, and again in the Quaternary, near 1 m.y. ago. The episodes were correlated with marked increases of the global ice volume, as revealed by drastic increases of d18O values. They suggest sea-level falls of up to 70 m below the present sea level in the latest Miocene and earliest Pliocene and of 145 m in the latest Pliocene and Quaternary. The climatic changes resulted in strongly enhanced meridional trade winds as suggested by coarser terrigenous grain-sizes, increased mass accumulation rates of eolian dust, and changes in clay-mineral composition from dominantly kaolinite to illite and chlorite. The meridional trade winds reached speeds of 8 to 10 m/s with a maximum near 15 m/s. The enhanced winds probably led t o intensified coastal upwelling as shown by the contemporaneous local increase i n the deposition of biogenic silica and the local depletion of 13C at Site 397. The most drastic environmental changes near 2.4 and 1 m.y. ago coincide with hiatuses which may indicate phases of general erosion due to strongly enhanced deep-water circulation in the northeast At1antic along the northwest African continental margin. The occasional occurrence of quartz grains coarser than 250 µm may suggest ice-rafted debris in sediments off Morocco. During these time intervals the climate in NW-Africa was dominantly arid. Nevertheless, fluvial runoff (and humidity) continued to be important during intermittent warm phases of the short-term climatic cycles. During the end and the beginning of (inter-) glacial times, fluvial supply of nutrients seems to be the dominant factor, controling phases of enhanced paleoproductivity observed off northwest Africa, whereas during phases of glacial maximum strenger fertility of (increased) coastal upwelling becomes more important. A long-term evolution of paleoenvironments during the last 40 m.y. is depicted in the sediments of Site 366 and is clearly controlled by the plate tectonic route of this Site. During Oligocene times, Site 366 lay in the center of the equatorial upwelling, as shown by the high content of biogenic silica contributing up to 100 % of the carbonate-free sediment fraction >6 µm. The influence of equatorial upwelling abruptly terminated near 15 m.y. ago, a change in the record exaggerated by a hiatus of about 2 m.y. Prior to 25 m.y., the terrigenous input at the paleolatitude of Site 366 was restricted t o eolian sediment supply from South Africa by southeasterly trade winds, as shown by dominantly illite and chlorite in the clay fraction and extremely fine-grained terrigenous matter. Near the Oligocene/Miocene boundary, Site 366 drifted across the equator into the belt of the northeasterly trade winds, which is inferred from the increased content of kaolinite and coarser grain sizes of the terrigenous sediment fraction. The clay-mineral and grain-size compositions of Site 366 do not reflect a noteworthy northward shift of the ITCZ during late Miocene and early Pliocene times, i.e. no marked global circulation asymmetry due to the possible absence of a major Northern Hemisphere glaciation (Flohn 1981). This lack of a more northerly position of the ITCZ may result from a bipolar glaciation already existing during late Miocene times, such as also suggested by the evidence of tillites on Iceland and in southern Alaska during those intervals (e.g., Denton & Amstrong 1969, Mudie & Helgason 1983).

A Hybrid Genetic Algorithm to Solve a Logt-Sizing and Scheduling Problem

Abstract: This paper reports a lot-sizing and scheduling problem, which minimizes inventory and backlog costs on m parallel machines with sequence-dependent set-up times over t periods. Problem solutions are represented as product subsets ordered and/or unordered for each machine m at each period t. The optimal lot sizes are determined applying a linear program. A genetic algorithm searches either over ordered or over unordered subsets (which are implicitly ordered using a fast ATSP-type heuristic) to identify an overall optimal solution. Initial computational results are presented, comparing the speed and solution quality of the ordered and unordered genetic algorithm approaches.

Time-dependent instantaneous mortality rates from multiple tagging experiments with exact times of release and recovery

Instantaneous natural mortality rates and a nonparametric hunting mortality function are estimated from a multiple-year tagging experiment with arbitrary, time-dependent fishing or hunting mortality. Our theory allows animals to be tagged over a range of times in each year, and to take time to mix into the population. Animals are recovered by hunting or fishing, and death events from natural causes occur but are not observed. We combine a long-standing approach based on yearly totals, described by Brownie et al. (1985, Statistical Inference from Band Recovery Data: A Handbook, Second edition, United States Fish and Wildlife Service, Washington, Resource Publication, 156), with an exact-time-of-recovery approach originated by Hearn, Sandland and Hampton (1987, Journal du Conseil International pour l'Exploration de la Mer, 43, 107-117), who modeled times at liberty without regard to time of tagging. Our model allows for exact times of release and recovery, incomplete reporting of recoveries, and potential tag shedding. We apply our methods to data on the heavily exploited southern bluefin tuna (Thunnus maccoyii).

Ligand dependent intra and inter subunit communication in human tryptophanyl tRNA synthetase as deduced from the dynamics of structure networks

Homodimeric protein tryptophanyl tRNA synthetase (TrpRS) has a Rossmann fold domain and belongs to the 1c subclass of aminoacyl tRNA synthetases. This enzyme performs the function of acylating the cognate tRNA. This process involves a number of molecules (2 protein subunits, 2 tRNAs and 2 activated Trps) and thus it is difficult to follow the complex steps in this process. Structures of human TrpRS complexed with certain ligands are available. Based on structural and biochemical data, mechanism of activation of Trp has been speculated. However, no structure has yet been solved in the presence of both the tRNA(Trp) and the activated Trp (TrpAMP). In this study, we have modeled the structure of human TrpRS bound to the activated ligand and the cognate tRNA. In addition, we have performed molecular dynamics (MD) simulations on these models as well as other complexes to capture the dynamical process of ligand induced conformational changes. We have analyzed both the local and global changes in the protein conformation from the protein structure network (PSN) of MD snapshots, by a method which was recently developed in our laboratory in the context of the functionally monomeric protein, methionyl tRNA synthetase. From these investigations, we obtain important information such as the ligand induced correlation between different residues of this protein, asymmetric binding of the ligands to the two subunits of the protein as seen in the crystal structure analysis, and the path of communication between the anticodon region and the aminoacylation site. Here we are able to elucidate the role of dimer interface at a level of detail, which has not been captured so far.

Discrete parameter simulation optimization algorithms with applications to admission control with dependent service times

We propose certain discrete parameter variants of well known simulation optimization algorithms. Two of these algorithms are based on the smoothed functional (SF) technique while two others are based on the simultaneous perturbation stochastic approximation (SPSA) method. They differ from each other in the way perturbations are obtained and also the manner in which projections and parameter updates are performed. All our algorithms use two simulations and two-timescale stochastic approximation. As an application setting, we consider the important problem of admission control of packets in communication networks under dependent service times. We consider a discrete time slotted queueing model of the system and consider two different scenarios - one where the service times have a dependence on the system state and the other where they depend on the number of arrivals in a time slot. Under our settings, the simulated objective function appears ill-behaved with multiple local minima and a unique global minimum characterized by a sharp dip in the objective function in a small region of the parameter space. We compare the performance of our algorithms on these settings and observe that the two SF algorithms show the best results overall. In fact, in many cases studied, SF algorithms converge to the global minimum.

Single-machine scheduling with past-sequence-dependent setup times and learning effects: a parametric analysis

In this article, we consider the single-machine scheduling problem with past-sequence-dependent (p-s-d) setup times and a learning effect. The setup times are proportional to the length of jobs that are already scheduled; i.e. p-s-d setup times. The learning effect reduces the actual processing time of a job because the workers are involved in doing the same job or activity repeatedly. Hence, the processing time of a job depends on its position in the sequence. In this study, we consider the total absolute difference in completion times (TADC) as the objective function. This problem is denoted as 1/LE, (Spsd)/TADC in Kuo and Yang (2007) ('Single Machine Scheduling with Past-sequence-dependent Setup Times and Learning Effects', Information Processing Letters, 102, 22-26). There are two parameters a and b denoting constant learning index and normalising index, respectively. A parametric analysis of b on the 1/LE, (Spsd)/TADC problem for a given value of a is applied in this study. In addition, a computational algorithm is also developed to obtain the number of optimal sequences and the range of b in which each of the sequences is optimal, for a given value of a. We derive two bounds b* for the normalising constant b and a* for the learning index a. We also show that, when a < a* or b > b*, the optimal sequence is obtained by arranging the longest job in the first position and the rest of the jobs in short processing time order.

A 3/2 algorithm for two-machine open shop with route-dependent processing times

This paper considers the problem of minimizing the schedule length of a two-machine shop in which not only can a job be assigned any of the two possible routes, but also the processing times depend on the chosen route. This problem is known to be NP-hard. We describe a simple approximation algorithm that guarantees a worst-case performance ratio of 2. We also present some modifications to this algorithm that improve its performance and guarantee a worst-case performance ratio of 3=2.

Schedules with due-date assignment and position-dependent processing times

Single machine scheduling problems are considered, in which the processing of jobs depend on positions of the jobs in a schedule and the due-dates are assigned either according to the CON rule (a due-date common to all jobs is chosen) or according to the SLK rule (the due-dates are computed by increasing the actual processing times of each job by a slack, common to all jobs). Polynomial-time dynamic programming algorithms are proposed for the problems with the objective functions that include the cost of assigning the due-dates, the total cost of disgarded jobs (which are not scheduled) and, possibly, the total earliness of the scheduled jobs.