The potential use of 241Am as proliferation resistant burnable poison in PWRs

This paper discusses the use of 241Am as proliferation resistant burnable poison for light water reactors. Homogeneous addition of small (as little as 0.12%) amounts of 241Am to the conventional light water reactor fuel results in significant increase in 238Pu/Pu ratio in the discharged fuel improving its proliferation resistance. Moreover, 241Am, admixed to the fuel, acts as burnable absorber allowing for substantial reduction in conventional reactivity control means without a notable fuel cycle length penalty. This is possible due to favorable characteristics of 241Am transmutation chain. The fuel cycle length penalty of introducing 241Am into the core is evaluated and discussed, as well as the impact of He production in the fuel pins and degradation of reactivity feedback coefficients. Proliferation resistance and reactivity control features related to the use of 241Am are compared to those of using 237Np, which has also been suggested as an additive to the conventional fuel in order to improve its proliferation resistance. It was found that 241Am admixture is more favorable than 237Np admixture because of the smaller fuel cycle length penalty and higher burnable poison savings. Addition of either 237Np or 241Am would provide substantial but not ultimate protection from misuse of Pu originating in the spent fuel from the commercial power reactors. Therefore, the benefits from application of the concept would have to be carefully evaluated against the additional costs and proliferation risks associated with manufacturing of 237Np or 241Am doped fuel. Although this work concerns specifically with PWRs, the conclusions could also be applied to BWRs and, to some extent, to other thermal spectrum reactor types. © 2009 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

The potential use of 241Am as proliferation resistant burnable poison

This paper discusses the use of 141Am as proliferation resistant burnable poison for light water reactors. Homogeneous addition of small (less than 1 %) amounts of 241Am to the conventional LWR fuel results in significant increase in 238Pu/Pu ratio in the discharged fuel improving its proliferation resistance. Moreover, 241Am, admixed to the fuel, acts as burnable absorber allowing for substantial reduction in conventional reactivity control means without notable fuel cycle length penalty. This is possible due to favourable characteristics of 241Am transmutation chain. The fuel cycle length penalty of introducing 241Am into the core is evaluated and discussed, as well as the impact of He production in the fuel pins and degradation of reactivity feedback coefficients. Proliferation resistance and reactivity control features related to the use of 241Am are compared to those of using 237Np, which has also been suggested as an additive to the conventional fuel in order to improve its proliferation resistance. It was found that 241Am admixture is more favourable than 237Np admixture because of the smaller fuel cycle length penalty and higher burnable poison savings.

The effect of Ln(III)/An(III) separation on TRU multi-recycling in CONFU assembly

This work examines the basic feasibility of the net-zero-balance TRU multi-recycling concept in which trivalent lanthanide fission products (Ln(III) ) are not separated from trivalent actinides (An(III)). The TRU together with Eu and Gd isotopes are recycled in a standard PWR using Combined Non-Fertile and UO2 (CONFU) assembly design. The assembly assumes a heterogeneous structure where about 20% of U02 fuel pins on the assembly periphery are replaced with Inert Matrix Fuel (IMF) pins hosting TRU, Gd, and Eu generated in the previous cycles. The 2-D neutronic analysis show potential feasibility of Ln / An recycling in PWR using CONFU assembly. Recycling of Ln reduces the fuel cycle length by about 30 effective full power days (EFPD) and TRU destruction efficiency by about 5%. Power peaking factors and reactivity feedback coefficients are close to those of CONFU assembly without Ln recycling.

Fertile-free annular fuel for plutonium recycling

Up to 50% increase in the power density of the existing pressurized water reactor (PWR)-type reactors can be achieved by the use of internally and externally cooled annular fuel geometry. As a result, the accumulated stock-piles of Pu, especially if incorporated infertile-free inert matrix, can be burnt at a substantially higher rate as compared with the conventional mixed oxide-fueled reactors operating at standard power density. In this work, we explore the basic feasibility of a PWR core fully loaded with Pu incorporated infertile-free fuel of annular internally and externally cooled geometry and operating at 150% of nominal power density. We evaluate basic burnable poison designs, fuel management strategies, and reactivity feedback coefficients. The three-dimensional full core neutronic analysis performed with Studsvik Core Management System showed that the design of such a Pu-loaded annular fuel core is feasible but significantly more challenging than the Pu fertile-free core with solid fuel pins operating at nominal power density. The main difficulty arises from the fact that the annular fuel core requires at least 50% higher initial Pu loading in order to maintain the standard fuel cycle length of 18 months. Such a high Pu loading results in hardening of the neutron spectrum and consequent reduction in reactivity worth of all reactivity control mechanisms and, in some cases, positive moderator temperature coefficient (MTC). The use of isotopically enriched Gd and Er burnable poisons was found to be beneficial with respect to maximizing Pu burnup and reducing power peaking factors. Overall, the annular fertile-free Pu-loaded high-power-density core appears to be feasible, although it still has relatively high power peaking and potential for slightly positive MTC at beginning of cycle. However, we estimate that limiting the power density to 140% of the nominal case would assure acceptable core power peaking and negative MTC at all times during the cycle.

Fertile-free fuels in pressurized water reactors: Design challenges and solutions

This paper investigates the basic feasibility of using reactor-grade Pu in fertile-free fuel (FFF) matrix in pressurized water reactors (PWRs). Several important issues were investigated in this work: the Pu loading required to achieve a specific interrefueling interval, the impact of inert matrix composition on reactivity constrained length of cycle, and the potential of utilizing burnable poisons (BPs) to alleviate degradation of the reactivity control mechanism and temperature coefficients. Although the subject was addressed in the past, no systematic approach for assessment of BP utilization in FFF cores was published. In this work, we examine all commercially available BP materials in all geometrical arrangements currently used by the nuclear industry with regards to their potential to alleviate the problems associated with the use of FFF in PWRs. The recently proposed MgO-ZrO2 solid-state solution fuel matrix, which appears to be very promising in terms of thermal properties and radiation damage resistance, was used as a reference matrix material in this work. The neutronic impact of the relative amounts of MgO and ZrO2 in the matrix were also studied. The analysis was performed with a neutron transport and fuel assembly burnup code BOXER. A modified linear reactivity model was applied to the two-dimensional single fuel assembly results to approximate the full core characteristics. Based on the results of the performed analyses, the Pu-loaded FFF core demonstrated potential feasibility to be used in existing PWRs. Major FFF core design problems may be significantly mitigated through the correct choice of BP design. It was found that a combination of BP materials and geometries may be required to meet all FFF design goals. The use of enriched (in most effective isotope) BPs, such as 167Er and 157Gd, may further improve the BP effectiveness and reduce the fuel cycle length penalty associated with their use.

Optimization of burnable poison design for Pu incineration in fully fertile free PWR core

The design challenges of the fertile-free based fuel (FFF) can be addressed by careful and elaborate use of burnable poisons (BP). Practical fully FFF core design for PWR reactor has been reported in the past [1]. However, the burnable poison option used in the design resulted in significant end of cycle reactivity penalty due to incomplete BP depletion. Consequently, excessive Pu loading were required to maintain the target fuel cycle length, which in turn decreased the Pu burning efficiency. A systematic evaluation of commercially available BP materials in all configurations currently used in PWRs is the main objective of this work. The BP materials considered are Boron, Gd, Er, and Hf. The BP geometries were based on Wet Annular Burnable Absorber (WABA), Integral Fuel Burnable Absorber (IFBA), and Homogeneous poison/fuel mixtures. Several most promising combinations of BP designs were selected for the full core 3D simulation. All major core performance parameters for the analyzed cases are very close to those of a standard PWR with conventional UO2 fuel including possibility of reactivity control, power peaking factors, and cycle length. The MTC of all FFF cores was found at the full power conditions at all times and very close to that of the UO2 core. The Doppler coefficient of the FFF cores is also negative but somewhat lower in magnitude compared to UO2 core. The soluble boron worth of the FFF cores was calculated to be lower than that of the UO2 core by about a factor of two, which still allows the core reactivity control with acceptable soluble boron concentrations. The main conclusion of this work is that judicial application of burnable poisons for fertile free fuel has a potential to produce a core design with performance characteristics close to those of the reference PWR core with conventional UO2 fuel.

Liquid salt cooled flexible conversion ratio fast reactor: Neutronic design

This paper presents the neutronic design of a liquid salt cooled fast reactor with flexible conversion ratio. The main objective of the design is to accommodate interchangeably within the same reactor core alternative transuranic actinides management strategies ranging from pure burning to self-sustainable breeding. Two, the most limiting, core design options with unity and zero conversion ratios are described. Ternary, NaCl-KCl-MgCl2 salt was chosen as a coolant after a rigorous screening process, due to a combination of favourable neutronic and heat transport properties. Large positive coolant temperature reactivity coefficient was identified as the most significant design challenge. A wide range of strategies aiming at the reduction of the coolant temperature coefficient to assure self-controllability of the core in the most limiting unprotected accidents were explored. However, none of the strategies resulted in sufficient reduction of the coolant temperature coefficient without significantly compromising the core performance characteristics such as power density or cycle length. Therefore, reactivity control devices known as lithium thermal expansion modules were employed instead. This allowed achieving all the design goals for both zero and unity conversion ratio cores. The neutronic feasibility of both designs was demonstrated through calculation of reactivity control and fuel loading requirements, fluence limits, power peaking factors, and reactivity feedback coefficients. © 2009 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Impact of carbon/nitrogen feeding strategy on polyhydroxyalkanoates production using mixed microbial cultures

Polyhydroxyalkanoates (PHA) production using mixed microbial cultures (MMC) requires a multi-stage process involving the microbial selection of PHA-storing microorganisms, typically operated in sequencing batch reactors (SBR), and an accumulation reactor. Since low-cost renewable feedstocks used as process feedstock are often nitrogen-deficient, nutrient supply in the selection stage is required to allow for microbial growth. In this context, the possibility to uncouple nitrogen supply from carbon feeding within the SBR cycle has been investigated in this study. Moreover, three different COD:N ratios (100:3.79, 100:3.03 and 100:2.43) were tested in three different runs which also allowed the study of COD:N ratio on the SBR performance. For each run, a synthetic mixture of acetic and propionic acids at an overall organic load rate of 8.5 gCOD L-1 d-1 was used as carbon feedstock, whereas ammonium sulfate was the nitrogen source in a lab-scale sequence batch reactor (SBR) with 1 L of working volume. Besides, a sludge retention time (SRT) of 1 d was used as well as a 6 h cycle length. The uncoupled feeding strategy significantly enhanced the selective pressure towards PHA-storing microorganisms, resulting in a two-fold increase in the PHA production (up to about 1.3 gCOD L-1). A high storage response was observed for the two runs with the COD:N ratios (gCOD:gN) of 100:3.79 and 100:3.03, whereas the lowest investigated nitrogen load resulted in very poor performance in terms of polymer production. In fact, strong nitrogen limitation caused fungi to grow and a very poor storage ability by microorganisms that thrived in those conditions. The COD:N ratio also affected the polymer composition, indeed the produced poly(3-hydroxybutyrate-co-3-hydroxyvalerate) (PHBV) showed a variable HV content (1-20 %, w/w) among the three runs, lessening as the COD:N increased. This clearly suggests the possibility to use the COD:N ratio as a tool for tuning polymer properties regardless the composition of the feedstock.

Size regulation of double and half embryos in the mice musculus

Genetic chimeras made by aggregating early mouse embryos have many uses in developmental biology and have also provided insights into embryonic growth regulation. There is an indication that the embryo can regulate for an increase in size because although aggregation chimeras are twice as big as normal embryos when made, they are born of normal size. Upward regula..... tion of size reduced embryos is also possible. Half embryos made by the isolation or destruction of one of the blastomeres of a 2-cell embryo are also born of normal size. Little is known about the timing or the mechanism of this size regulation. In this study, the timing of size regulation in double and half embryos was clearly established by comparison of cell numbers derived from serial reconstruction of light microscope sections of control and experimental embryos. It was shown that size regulation in double embryos occurred around 6dl6h and in half embryos by 7dOh. Size regulation occurred in all tissues at the same time indicating a single control mechanism for the entire embryo. More detailed examination of the growth of double embryos revealed that size regulation occurred by alteration in cell cycle length~ No excessive cell death was found in double embryos compared to the controls and continuous labelling with [3H] thymidine showed no large non-dividing cell population in double embryos. However, a comparison of the mitotic index of double and control embryos after colcemid treatment, revealed a large difference between the two around 5dl6h to 6d16h. During this period, control embryos underwent a proliferative burst not shown by the double embryos. The mechanism for cell cycle control is not clear; it may be intrinsic to the embryo or determined by the uterine environment. Evidence was found suggesting that differentiation in the postimplantation embryo was cell number dependent. The timing of differentiative events was examined in half, double and control embryos. Proamnion formation, which occurs prior to size regulation, occurs at the same cell number but at different times in the three groups of embryos. However mesoderm which appears after size regulation was seen at the same time in all grollps of embryos.

Caractéristiques et origine fonctionnelle des propriétés fréquentielles du noeud auriculoventriculaire

Le nœud auriculoventriculaire (AV) joue un rôle vital dans le cœur normal et pathologique. Il connecte les oreillettes aux ventricules et, grâce à sa conduction lente, génère un délai entre les contractions auriculaire et ventriculaire permettant d’optimiser le pompage sanguin. Sa conduction lente et sa longue période réfractaire font du nœud AV un filtre d’impulsions auriculaires lors de tachyarythmies assurant ainsi une fréquence ventriculaire plus lente favorable au débit cardiaque. L’optimisation de ce filtrage est une cible dans le traitement de ces arythmies. Malgré ce rôle vital et de nombreuses études, le nœud AV demeure l’objet de plusieurs controverses qui en rendent la compréhension laborieuse. Nos études expérimentales sur des préparations isolées de cœurs de lapin visent à apporter des solutions à certains des problèmes qui limitent la compréhension des propriétés fréquentielles du nœud AV. Le premier problème concerne la définition de la propriété de récupération nodale. On s’accorde généralement sur la dépendance du temps de conduction nodale (intervalle auriculo-Hissien, AH) du temps de récupération qui le précède mais un débat presque centenaire persiste sur la façon de mesurer ce temps de récupération. Selon que l’on utilise à cette fin la longueur du cycle auriculaire (AA) ou l’intervalle His-auriculaire précédent (HA), la même réponse nodale montre des caractéristiques différentes, un paradoxe à ce jour inexpliqué. Le temps de conduction nodale augmente aussi avec le degré et la durée d'une fréquence rapide, un phénomène appelé fatigue. Or, les caractéristiques de la fatigue mesurée varient avec l’indice de récupération utilisé (AA vs. HA). De plus, une troisième propriété appelée facilitation qui entraîne un raccourcissement du temps de conduction diffère aussi avec l’indice de récupération utilisé. Pour établir l’origine de ce problème, nous avons déterminé les différences entre les courbes de récupération (AH compilé en fonction du AA ou HA) pour 30 états fonctionnels nodaux différents. Ces conditions étaient obtenues à l’aide de protocoles permettant la variation du cycle de base (BCL) et du cycle prétest (PTCL), deux paramètres connus pour altérer la fonction nodale. Nous avons pu établir que pour chaque état fonctionnel, la forme de la courbe de récupération et le niveau de fatigue étaient les mêmes pour les deux indices de récupération. Ceci s’applique aussi aux données obtenues à des BCL et PTCL égaux comme dans les protocoles de stimulation prématurée conventionnels couramment utilisés. Nos résultats ont établi pour la première fois que les propriétés nodales de récupération et de fatigue sont indépendantes de l’indice de récupération utilisé. Nos données montrent aussi que les différences entre les courbes de récupération en fonction de l’indice utilisé proviennent d’effets associés aux variations du PTCL. Notre deuxième étude établit à partir des mêmes données pourquoi les variations du PTCL altèrent différemment les courbes de récupération selon l’indice utilisé. Nous avons démontré que ces différences augmentaient en proportion directe avec l’augmentation du temps de conduction au battement prétest. Cette augmentation cause un déplacement systématique de la courbe construite avec l’intervalle AA vers la droite et de celle construite avec l’intervalle HA vers la gauche. Ce résultat met en évidence l’importance de tenir compte des changements du temps de conduction prétest dans l’évaluation de la fonction nodale, un paramètre négligé dans la plupart des études. Ce résultat montre aussi que chacun des deux indices a des limites dans sa capacité d’évaluer le temps de récupération nodale réel lorsque le temps de conduction prétest varie. Lorsque ces limites sont ignorées, comme c’est habituellement le cas, elles entraînent un biais dans l’évaluation des effets de fatigue et de facilitation. Une autre grande difficulté dans l’évaluation des propriétés fréquentielles du nœud AV concerne son état réfractaire. Deux indices sont utilisés pour évaluer la durée de la période réfractaire nodale. Le premier est la période réfractaire efficace (ERPN) définie comme l’intervalle AA le plus long qui n’est pas conduit par le nœud. Le deuxième est la période réfractaire fonctionnelle (FRPN) qui correspond à l’intervalle minimum entre deux activations mesurées à la sortie du nœud. Paradoxalement et pour des raisons obscures, l’ERPN augmente alors que la FRPN diminue avec l’augmentation de la fréquence cardiaque. De plus, ces effets varient grandement avec les sujets, les espèces et l’âge. À partir des mêmes données que pour les deux autres études, nous avons cherché dans la troisième étude l’origine des variations fréquentielles de l’ERPN et de la FRPN. Le raccourcissement du BCL prolonge l’ERPN mais n’affecte pas la FRPN. L’allongement de l’ERPN provient principalement d’un allongement du temps de conduction prétest. Un PTCL court en comparaison avec un BCL court allonge encore plus substantiellement le temps de conduction prétest mais raccourcit en même temps l’intervalle His-auriculaire, ces deux effets opposés s’additionnent pour produire un allongement net de l’ERPN. Le raccourcissement de l’intervalle His-auriculaire par le PTCL court est aussi entièrement responsable pour le raccourcissement de la FRPN. Nous avons aussi établi que, lorsque la composante du temps de conduction prétest est retirée de l’ERPN, un lien linéaire existe entre la FRPN et l’ERPN à cause de leur dépendance commune de l’intervalle His-auriculaire. Le raccourcissement combiné du BCL et du PTCL produit des effets nets prévisibles à partir de leurs effets individuels. Ces effets reproduisent ceux obtenus lors de protocoles prématurés conventionnels. Ces observations supportent un nouveau schème fonctionnel des variations fréquentielles de l’ERPN et de la FRPN à partir des effets distincts du BCL et du PTCL. Elles établissent aussi un nouveau lien entre les variations fréquentielles de l’ERPN et de la FRPN. En conclusion, la modulation fréquentielle de la fonction du nœud AV provient de la combinaison d’effets concurrents cumulatifs liés au cycle de base et non-cumulatifs liés au cycle prétest. Ces effets peuvent être interprétés de façon consistante indépendamment de l’indice de récupération en tenant compte des changements du temps de conduction au battement prétest. Les effets fréquentiels disparates sur l’ERPN et la FRPN sont aussi grandement liés aux changements du temps de conduction prétest. Lorsque l’analyse tient compte de ce facteur, l’ERPN et la FRPN montrent des variations parallèles fortement liées à celles de l’intervalle His-auriculaire. Le nouveau schème fonctionnel des propriétés fréquentielles du nœud AV supporté par nos données aidera à mieux cibler les études sur les mécanismes cellulaires contrôlant la modulation fréquentielle nodale. Nos données pourraient aider à l’interprétation et au contrôle des réponses nodales diverses associées aux tachyarythmies supraventriculaires et à leur traitement pharmacologique. En bref, nos travaux supportent une compréhension factuelle améliorée du comportement fréquentiel du nœud AV, un domaine aux applications multiples en rythmologie cardiaque.

Facilitation de la procédure d’ablation de fibrillation auriculaire persistante après restauration du rythme sinusal pré-procédure : une étude multicentrique comparative

L’ablation de fibrillation auriculaire (FA) persistante est associée à des temps de procédure plus longs et à un moindre succès par rapport à l’ablation de FA paroxystique. Nous avons posé l’hypothèse que la restauration et le maintien du rythme sinusal ≥ 1 mois pré-procédure faciliteraient la terminaison de la FA et amélioreraient le succès de la procédure. Méthodes: Nous avons conduit une étude rétrospective comparant deux cohortes de patients consécutifs se présentant en FA persistante pour première ablation de FA : le groupe rythme sinusal (RS) avec restauration et maintien du rythme RS ≥ 1 mois pré-procédure (Groupe RS; N=40) et un groupe contrôle de patients en FA pré ablation (Groupe contrôle; N=40), apparié selon le sexe, l’âge, la longueur maximale de durée de FA. Une ablation de type en paliers (“stepwise”) a été réalisée dans les deux groupes (avec FA induite en début de procédure dans le groupe RS). Le succès a été défini par l’absence de récidive de FA ou de tachycardie atriale sans anti arythmique après un suivi minimal de 12 mois post procédure. Résultats: Durant la procédure de index d’ablation de FA, le cycle de FA était plus long dans le groupe RS par rapport au groupe contrôle (183±32 vs 166±20 ms, P=0.06) suggérant un remodelage inverse. Dans le groupe RS, la FA a été terminée plus fréquemment par l’ablation (95.0% vs 77.5%, P<0.05) et a demandé une ablation moins extensive avec moins d’ablation des électrocardiogrammes fragmentés (40.0% vs 87.5%, p<0.001) et moins de lésions linéaires (42.5% vs 82.5%, p<0.001). Les durées moyennes de procédure (199.8±69.8 vs 283.5±72.3 minutes, P<0.001), de fluoroscopie (51.0±24.9 vs 96.3±32.1 minutes, P<0.001), et de radiofréquence (47.5±18.9 vs 97.0±30.6 minutes, P<0.001) ont été plus courtes dans le groupe RS. Les succès cliniques ont été comparables dans les deux groupes après la première (55.0% vs 45.0%, P=0.28) et la dernière procédure (80.0% vs 70.0%, P=0.28), après une durée moyenne de suivi comparable (21.1±9.7 mois).

Marker placement to describe the wrist movements during activities of daily living in cyclical tasks

Objective. To describe the wrist kinematics during movement through free range of motion and activities of daily living using a cyclical task. Design. The wrist angles were initially calculated in a calibration trial and then in two selected activities of daily living (jar opening and carton pouring). Background. Existing studies which describe the wrist movement do not address the specific application of daily activities. Moreover, the data presented from subject to subject may differ simply because of the non-cyclical nature of the upper limbs movements. Methods. The coordinates of external markers attached to bone references on the forearm and dorsal side of the hand were obtained using an optical motion capture system. The wrist angles were derived from free motion trials and successively calculated in four healthy subjects for two specific cyclical daily activities (opening a jar and pouring from a carton). Results. The free motions trial highlighted the interaction between the wrist angles. Both the jar opening and the carton pouring activity showed a repetitive pattern for the three angles within the cycle length. In the jar-opening task, the standard deviation for the whole population was 10.8degrees for flexion-extension, 5.3degrees for radial-ulnar deviation and 10.4degrees for pronation-supination. In the carton-pouring task, the standard deviation for the whole population was 16.0degrees for flexion-extension, 3.4degrees for radial-ulnar deviation and 10.7degrees for pro nation-supination. Conclusion. Wrist kinematics in healthy subjects can be successfully described by the rotations about the axes of marker-defined coordinates systems during free range of motion and daily activities using cyclical tasks.

How predation and landscape fragmentation affect vole population dynamics

Background: Microtine species in Fennoscandia display a distinct north-south gradient from regular cycles to stable populations. The gradient has often been attributed to changes in the interactions between microtines and their predators. Although the spatial structure of the environment is known to influence predator-prey dynamics of a wide range of species, it has scarcely been considered in relation to the Fennoscandian gradient. Furthermore, the length of microtine breeding season also displays a north-south gradient. However, little consideration has been given to its role in shaping or generating population cycles. Because these factors covary along the gradient it is difficult to distinguish their effects experimentally in the field. The distinction is here attempted using realistic agent-based modelling. Methodology/Principal Findings: By using a spatially explicit computer simulation model based on behavioural and ecological data from the field vole (Microtus agrestis), we generated a number of repeated time series of vole densities whose mean population size and amplitude were measured. Subsequently, these time series were subjected to statistical autoregressive modelling, to investigate the effects on vole population dynamics of making predators more specialised, of altering the breeding season, and increasing the level of habitat fragmentation. We found that fragmentation as well as the presence of specialist predators are necessary for the occurrence of population cycles. Habitat fragmentation and predator assembly jointly determined cycle length and amplitude. Length of vole breeding season had little impact on the oscillations. Significance: There is good agreement between our results and the experimental work from Fennoscandia, but our results allow distinction of causation that is hard to unravel in field experiments. We hope our results will help understand the reasons for cycle gradients observed in other areas. Our results clearly demonstrate the importance of landscape fragmentation for population cycling and we recommend that the degree of fragmentation be more fully considered in future analyses of vole dynamics.

Long-term variations in the magnetic fields of the Sun and the heliosphere: their origin, effects, and implications

Recent studies of the variation of geomagnetic activity over the past 140 years have quantified the "coronal source" magnetic flux F-s that leaves the solar atmosphere and enters the heliosphere and have shown that it has risen, on average, by an estimated 34% since 1963 and by 140% since 1900. This variation of open solar flux has been reproduced by Solanki et al. [2000] using a model which demonstrates how the open flux accumulates and decays, depending on the rate of flux emergence in active regions and on the length of the solar cycle. We here use a new technique to evaluate solar cycle length and find that it does vary in association with the rate of change of F-s in the way predicted. The long-term variation of the rate of flux emergence is found to be very similar in form to that in F-s, which may offer a potential explanation of why F-s appears to be a useful proxy for extrapolating solar total irradiance back in time. We also find that most of the variation of cosmic ray fluxes incident on Earth is explained by the strength of the heliospheric field (quantified by F-s) and use observations of the abundance of the isotope Be-10 (produced by cosmic rays and deposited in ice sheets) to study the decrease in F-s during the Maunder minimum. The interior motions at the base of the convection zone, where the solar dynamo is probably located, have recently been revealed using the helioseismology technique and found to exhibit a 1.3-year oscillation. This periodicity is here reported in observations of the interplanetary magnetic field and geomagnetic activity but is only present after 1940, When present, it shows a strong 22-year variation, peaking near the maximum of even-numbered sunspot cycles and showing minima at the peaks of odd-numbered cycles. We discuss the implications of these long-term solar and heliospheric variations for Earth's environment.

Long-term variations in the magnetic field of the Sun and possible implications for terrestrial climate

Recent studies of the variation of geomagnetic activity over the past 140 years have quantified the "coronal source" or "open" magnetic flux F-s that leaves the solar atmosphere and enters the heliosphere and have shown that it has risen, on average, by 34% since 1963 and by 140% since 1900. This variation is reflected in studies of the heliospheric field using isotopes deposited in ice sheets and meteorites by the action of galactic comic rays. The variation has also been reproduced using a model that demonstrates how the open flux accumulates and decays, depending on the rate of flux emergence in active regions and on the length of the solar cycle. The cosmic ray flux at energies > 3 GeV is found to have decayed by about 15% during the 20(th) century (and by about 4% at > 13 GeV). We show that the changes in the open flux do reflect changes in the photospheric and sub-surface field which offers an explanation of why open flux appears to be a good proxy for solar irradiance extrapolation. Correlations between F-s, solar cycle length, L, and 11-year smoothed sunspot number, R-11, explain why the various irradiance reconstructions for the last 150 years are similar in form. Possible implications of the inferred changes in cosmic ray flux and irradiance for global temperatures on Earth are discussed.