Estimating HIV incidence rates from age prevalence data in epidemic situations

We present a method of estimating HIV incidence rates in epidemic situations from data on age-specific prevalence and changes in the overall prevalence over time. The method is applied to women attending antenatal clinics in Hlabisa, a rural district of KwaZulu/Natal, South Africa, where transmission of HIV is overwhelmingly through heterosexual contact. A model which gives age-specific prevalence rates in the presence of a progressing epidemic is fitted to prevalence data for 1998 using maximum likelihood methods and used to derive the age-specific incidence. Error estimates are obtained using a Monte Carlo procedure. Although the method is quite general some simplifying assumptions are made concerning the form of the risk function and sensitivity analyses are performed to explore the importance of these assumptions. The analysis shows that in 1998 the annual incidence of infection per susceptible woman increased from 5.4 per cent (3.3-8.5 per cent; here and elsewhere ranges give 95 per cent confidence limits) at age 15 years to 24.5 per cent (20.6-29.1 per cent) at age 22 years and declined to 1.3 per cent (0.5-2.9 per cent) at age 50 years; standardized to a uniform age distribution, the overall incidence per susceptible woman aged 15 to 59 was 11.4 per cent (10.0-13.1 per cent); per women in the population it was 8.4 per cent (7.3-9.5 per cent). Standardized to the age distribution of the female population the average incidence per woman was 9.6 per cent (8.4-11.0 per cent); standardized to the age distribution of women attending antenatal clinics, it was 11.3 per cent (9.8-13.3 per cent). The estimated incidence depends on the values used for the epidemic growth rate and the AIDS related mortality. To ensure that, for this population, errors in these two parameters change the age specific estimates of the annual incidence by less than the standard deviation of the estimates of the age specific incidence, the AIDS related mortality should be known to within +/-50 per cent and the epidemic growth rate to within +/-25 per cent, both of which conditions are met. In the absence of cohort studies to measure the incidence of HIV infection directly, useful estimates of the age-specific incidence can be obtained from cross-sectional, age-specific prevalence data and repeat cross-sectional data on the overall prevalence of HIV infection. Several assumptions were made because of the lack of data but sensitivity analyses show that they are unlikely to affect the overall estimates significantly. These estimates are important in assessing the magnitude of the public health problem, for designing vaccine trials and for evaluating the impact of interventions. Copyright (C) 2001 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Identification and dimensionality of difficult situations at work

Attempts to understand why people with adequate communication skills do not always perform well have focused on personality or personal style variables. This research focuses on the situational context and the difficulty inherent in particular encounters. This paper reports two studies concerned with what makes difficult face-to-face communication in work settings difficult or demanding. The first study (Study 1) identifies the types of face-to-face communication encounters that people find difficult to manage in the workplace. Quantitative and qualitative data were gathered to define 41 difficult communication situations representing situations difficult for superiors, colleagues and subordinates, as well as generically difficult situations. In Study 2, quantitative data were analysed using multidimensional scaling techniques to reveal the underlying structure of the situations. Four dimensions were identified: protection/approach, vulnerability, self-management, and involvement/engagement. The results provide insight into the ways in which people construe these types of situations and also provide a taxonomy of difficult communication situations in the workplace. Theoretical and practical implications of the findings are discussed.

Evaluation of platelet count by automatic blood counter QBC Vet Autoread (R) compared with blood smear estimative and count by hemocytometer

The platelet blood count in laboratorial routine provides to the clinician important information about the hemostasis of the patient. There are many techniques described, however the gold standard techniques realized in hemocytometer spent a lot of time, making this technique impracticable in great routines. This research had the intent to evaluate if the automatic veterinary blood counter QBC Vet Autoread (R), whose results get five minutes to be ready, is capable to offer a trustworthy platelet count number. To this end, were evaluated the correlations among three different forms of platelets count in dogs: count in automatic blood counter QBC Vet Autoread (R), estimative in blood smear and the gold standard method by manual count in hemocytometer. The viability and confidence use of automatic blood counters of the medicine veterinary routine. Seventeen dogs were chosen randomly way, in the medical and surgical routine of HOVET-USP. The analysis revel high correlation between the hemocytometer and the estimative in blood smear (r=0,875) and between the hemocytometer and automatic blood count by QBC Vet Autoread (R) (r=0,939). Conclude that the platelet blood cont by QBC Vet Autoread (R), in addition to be fast, it`s more truthful when compared with estimative in blood smear, although the latter one also had elevated correlation. However, morphological analysis through the smears cannot be dismissed because none of the other two techniques evaluated have the ability to assess platelet morphological changes.

Loss as a universal concept: Review of the literature to identify common aspects of loss in diverse situations

It has long been recognized that loss and its associated grief are important elements of many adverse life events that affect the entire global population: death, disability, traumatic events, abuse., terminal and chronic illness, aging, addiction, unemployment, relationship breakdown, war, migration, and educational failure. While there is significant empirical evidence of the potential deleterious effects of specific situations of loss across the global community, systematic discussion concerning the common elements of loss that are associated with adverse life situations in general has been limited. This review of the theoretical and empirical literature concerning various losses and the recommendations for care of those affected by such losses identifies common aspects of situations of loss and common recommendations in the care of those confronted by such losses. These common themes of loss are described by simple summary statements that can be communicated to a broad audience, hence enhancing community education and, potentially, community-wide mental health promotion.

Fas ligand and tumour counter-attack in colorectal cancer stratified according to microsatellite instability status

Expression of membrane-bound Fas ligand (FasL) by colorectal cancer cells may allow the development of an immune-privileged site by eliminating incoming tumour-infiltrating lymphocytes (TILs) in a Fas-mediated counter-attack. Sporadic colorectal cancer can be subdivided into three groups based on the level of DNA microsatellite instability (NISI). High-level NISI (NISI-High) is characterized by the presence of TILs and a favourable prognosis, while microsatellite-stable (MSS) cancers are TIL-deficient and low-level MSI (MSI-Low) is associated with an intermediate TIL density. The purpose of this study was to establish the relationship between MSI status and FasL expression in primary colorectal adenocarcinoma. Using immunohistochemistry and a selected series of 101 cancers previously classified as 31 MSI-High, 30 NISI-Low, and 40 MISS, the present study sought to confirm the hypothesis that increased TIL density in MSI-High cancers is associated with low or absent membrane-bound FasL expression, while increased FasL in MSS cancers allows the killing of host TILs. TUNEL/CD3 double staining was also used to determine whether MSS cancers contain higher numbers of apoptotic TILs in vivo than MSI-High or MSI-Low cancers. Contrary to the initial hypothesis, it was found that MSI-High cancers were associated with higher FasL expression (p = 0.04) and a stronger intensity of FasL staining (p = 0.007). In addition, mucinous carcinomas were independently characterized by increased FasL expression (p = 0.03) and staining intensity (p = 0.0005). Higher FasL expression and staining intensity did not correlate with reduced TIL density or increased numbers of apoptotic TILs. However, consistent with the hypothesis that curtailment of the host anti-tumour immune response contributes to the poor prognosis in MSS cancers, it was found that apoptotic TILs were most abundant in MSS carcinomas and metastatic Dukes' stage C or D tumours (p = 0.004; p = 0.046 respectively). This study therefore suggests that MSS colorectal cancers are killing incoming TILs in an effective tumour counter-attack, but apparently not via membrane-bound FasL. Copyright (C) 2003 John Wiley Sons, Ltd.

O caráter político-pedagógico dos movimentos populares de bairro da Grande São Pedro: avanços e recuos sob o imperativo da ordem capitalista

Este trabalho tem como objeto de estudo as ações organizativas dos movimentos populares de bairro, enquanto práticas político-pedagógicas. Tomamos como foco, as associações de moradores da região da Grande São Pedro. Apesar de ter ficado conhecida na década de 1980 pela situação de miséria, os moradores dessa região, historicamente perpassada pelo fenômeno da segregação socioespacial, encontraram nas adversidades motivação para a organização do movimento popular como forma de construir sua história e afirmar sua cidadania. Totalmente transformada no que tange à sua urbanização, a região ainda hoje apresenta um cenário adverso para os moradores. Nesse sentido, a importância da organização dos moradores na atualidade é fundamental para lutar contra as situações de opressão que se impõem sobre os mesmos. Entretanto, o quadro que os atuais movimentos populares de bairro desta região apresenta é de reprodução de um modelo político-cultural marcado pelo individualismo, com traços peculiares da formação social brasileira - caracterizada por práticas de centralização, dependência e clientelismo político. Deve-se registrar que apesar de também trazerem traços de lutas e resistência, a forma como atualmente acontecem, com ações em níveis imediatos, esvaziadas de conteúdo político mais amplo, sem articulação com movimentos mais abrangentes, acabam se expressando em um “associativismo individualizado”. Desta feita, reiteramos neste trabalho a necessidade de a classe trabalhadora brasileira retomar, reconstruir espaços que contribuam com a formação de lideranças, com a qualificação das bases desses movimentos, para que seus protagonistas possam consolidar uma prática político-pedagógica fundamentada na educação popular e com isso venham adensar as lutas da classe trabalhadora e somar ao projeto de construção da contra-hegemonia, visando à transformação social. Buscar-se-ia neste sentido, a consolidação de um projeto social mais igualitário, justo e verdadeiramente democrático, no qual seja possível a emancipação humana.

Sources of Brazil's Counter-Hegemony

There have been two key initiatives taken in the last two decades in Brazil to create a counter-hegemonic project for the country. One initiative resulted from Brazil's business community and high-level State bureaucracy and aimed at forming a regional economic and political bloc that would guarantee and enlarge a relative independence from the hegemonic powers. The other resulted from the emergence of the new unionist movement in São Paulo and from the formation of Partido dos Trabalhadores and aimed at promoting radical democratization and reducing social exclusion. Both initiatives have created policies and changes that have converged to enhance Brazil's counter-hegemonic position as a regional and emerging power.

STRATEGIES FOR SUPERIOR PERFORMANCE IN RECESSIONS: PRO OR COUNTER-CYCLICAL?

Recessions are recurring events in which most firms suffer severe impacts while others are less affected or may even prosper. Strategic management has made little progress in understanding such performance differences. In a scenario of decreased demand, intensified competition, and higher uncertainty, most firms try to survive by pro-cyclically cutting costs and investments. But firms could take advantage of undervalued resources in the market to counter-cyclically invest in new business opportunities to overtake competitors. We survey Brazilian firms in various industries about the 2008-2009 recession and analyze data using PLS-SEM. We find that while most firms pro-cyclically reduce costs and investments in recessions, a counter-cyclical strategy of investing in opportunities created by changes in the market enables superior performance. Most successful are firms with a propensity to recognize opportunities, an entrepreneurial orientation to invest, and the flexibility to efficiently implement investments.

Sistema de neurónios espelho no síndrome de down: estudo das variações dos ritmos Mu No Eeg

A capacidade de compreensão das acções dos outros e de imitação tem sido descrita como fundamental para a cognição social do ser humano. Recentemente tem sido atribuída a responsabilidade desta capacidade a um sistema neuronal denominado de Sistema de Neurónios Espelho, que se tem demonstrado estar afectado em perturbações mentais que se caracterizam por alterações severas da teoria da mente e da empatia, como é o caso do autismo. No caso do Síndrome de Down, verifica-se a coexistência de boas competências sociais e de capacidades práxicas e de imitação intactas, com dificuldades de interpretação de situações sociais e de reconhecimento de emoções, que nos levam a questionar acerca da actividade do seu Sistema de Neurónios Espelho. As oscilações do ritmo de frequências um (8-13 Hz) no córtex sensório-motor perante a observação de acções são consideradas um reflexo da actividade dos neurónios espelho, estando estabelecido que em pessoas saudáveis ocorre uma supressão mu na realização de movimentos com o membro superior e na sua observação quando realizados por outras pessoas. Neste estudo registou-se electroencefalograficamente a supressão dos ritmos mu em 11 pessoas com SD e em 20 pessoas sem SD nas seguintes condições: observação de um vídeo com duas bolas em movimento, observação de um vídeo com um movimento repetido de uma mão e realização movimentos com a mão. A baseline foi registada através da observação de um ponto estático. Constatamos que existe supressão dos ritmos mu na observação das acções dos outros em pessoas com Síndrome Down da mesma forma que ocorre na realização do próprio movimento, sugerindo uma relativa preservação do funcionamento dos neurónios espelho e dos mecanismos básicos de cognição social. Estes resultados vão de encontro aos estudos que apontam para a integridade das capacidades de imitação no Síndrome Down. Verificamos também que não se encontram diferenças significativas na supressão dos ritmos mu entre os grupos de pessoas com Síndrome Down e de Controlo em relação às condições usadas na investigação.

A real time pricing approach to deal with excessive wind power situations

The introduction of wind power generation in several countries around the world, including in European countries, where energy policy directives have encouraged the use of renewables, led to several changes in market and power systems operation. The intensive integration of these sources has led to situations in which the demand is lower than the available renewable resources. In these situations a part of the available generation is wasted if not used for storage or to supply additional demand. This paper proposes a real time demand response methodology based on changing the electricity price for the consumers expecting an increase in the demand in the periods in which that demand is lower than the available renewable generation. The consumers response to the changes in electricity price is characterized by their price elasticity of demand considered distinct for each consumer type. The proposed methodology is applied to the Portuguese power system, in the context of the Iberian electricity market (MIBEL). The renewable-based producers are considered as special producers, with special tariffs, and so it is important to use the energy available as it will be paid anyway. In this context, consumers are entities actively participating in the operation of the market.

Virtual power players dealing with excessive wind power situations using real time pricing

The increasing importance given by environmental policies to the dissemination and use of wind power has led to its fast and large integration in power systems. In most cases, this integration has been done in an intensive way, causing several impacts and challenges in current and future power systems operation and planning. One of these challenges is dealing with the system conditions in which the available wind power is higher than the system demand. This is one of the possible applications of demand response, which is a very promising resource in the context of competitive environments that integrates even more amounts of distributed energy resources, as well as new players. The methodology proposed aims the maximization of the social welfare in a smart grid operated by a virtual power player that manages the available energy resources. When facing excessive wind power generation availability, real time pricing is applied in order to induce the increase of consumption so that wind curtailment is minimized. The proposed method is especially useful when actual and day-ahead wind forecast differ significantly. The proposed method has been computationally implemented in GAMS optimization tool and its application is illustrated in this paper using a real 937-bus distribution network with 20310 consumers and 548 distributed generators, some of them with must take contracts.

Comparison between the HemoCue® and an automated counter for measuring hemoglobin

To determine the precision and agreement of the hemoglobin (Hb) measurements in capillary and venous blood samples by the HemoCue® and an automated counter. Hb was determined by both equipaments in blood samples of 29 pregnant women. The HemoCue® showed low repeatability of Hb measurements in duplicate in capillary (CR=0.53 g/dL, CV=13.6%) and venous blood (CR=0.53 g/dL, CV=13.6%). Hb measurements in capillary blood were higher than those in venous blood (12.4 and 11.7 g/dL, respectively; p<0.05). There was high agreement between Hb in capillary blood by the HemoCue® and in venous blood by the counter (r icc=0.86; p<0.01), and also between the diagnosis of anemia by both equipments (k=0.81; p<0.01). The HemoCue® seems to be more appropriate for capillary blood and require training of the measurers.