Probability inundation map for a scenario combining storm surge and sea-level rise

Coastal managers require reliable spatial data on the extent and timing of potential coastal inundation, particularly in a changing climate. Most sea level rise (SLR) vulnerability assessments are undertaken using the easily implemented bathtub approach, where areas adjacent to the sea and below a given elevation are mapped using a deterministic line dividing potentially inundated from dry areas. This method only requires elevation data usually in the form of a digital elevation model (DEM). However, inherent errors in the DEM and spatial analysis of the bathtub model propagate into the inundation mapping. The aim of this study was to assess the impacts of spatially variable and spatially correlated elevation errors in high-spatial resolution DEMs for mapping coastal inundation. Elevation errors were best modelled using regression-kriging. This geostatistical model takes the spatial correlation in elevation errors into account, which has a significant impact on analyses that include spatial interactions, such as inundation modelling. The spatial variability of elevation errors was partially explained by land cover and terrain variables. Elevation errors were simulated using sequential Gaussian simulation, a Monte Carlo probabilistic approach. 1,000 error simulations were added to the original DEM and reclassified using a hydrologically correct bathtub method. The probability of inundation to a scenario combining a 1 in 100 year storm event over a 1 m SLR was calculated by counting the proportion of times from the 1,000 simulations that a location was inundated. This probabilistic approach can be used in a risk-aversive decision making process by planning for scenarios with different probabilities of occurrence. For example, results showed that when considering a 1% probability exceedance, the inundated area was approximately 11% larger than mapped using the deterministic bathtub approach. The probabilistic approach provides visually intuitive maps that convey uncertainties inherent to spatial data and analysis.

(Table T1) Coral taxa and their ecological significance in ODP Site 194-1196 and Hole 194-1199A sediments

The Southern Marion Plateau (SMP) represents a vertical stacking of Miocene carbonate platform deposits. Two sites (1196 and 1199) were drilled on top of this plateau, penetrating a 663-m carbonate succession of bioclastic and reefal sedimentary bodies. The study focuses on the least dolomitized 410-m-thick upper part of the succession, which is middle to late Miocene in age. Sedimentological and paleontological studies were conducted at both sites in order to propose a paleoenvironmental model and its evolution through the Miocene age. Six main microfacies of possible environmental significance were defined using statistical multivariate analyses, based on the recognition and point counting of 24 biogenic components. Depositional environment reconstructions are proposed as well as the biosedimentary and the environmental evolution regarding seismic architectures, stratigraphy, biosedimentology, and microfacies analysis. The SMP platform mainly results from a vertical stacking of lens-shaped bodies in homoclinal to distally steepened ramp settings.