How different are the correlates of onset and continuation of civil wars?

It is very common to analyse the factors associated with the onset and continuation of civil wars entirely separately, as if there were likely to be no similarity between them. This is an overstatement of the theoretical position, which has established only that they may be different (i.e. less than perfectly correlated). The hypothesis that the explanatory variables are the same is not theoretically excludable and is empirically testable, both for individual variables and for combinations of them. Starting from this approach yields a rather different picture of the factors associated with the continuation of civil wars, because the relatively small sample size means that confidence intervals on individual coefficients are wide in this case. It is shown here that country size, mountainous terrain and (in most datasets) ethnic diversity seem significant for the continuation of civil wars, starting from the null hypothesis that variables affect onset and continuation probabilities identically, rather than entirely independently. One variable that affects onset and continuation significantly differently is anocracy, which we find to matter only for onset. Civil war is more likely if it occurred two years previously, as well as one year previously, which indicates that wars are more likely to restart after only one year of peace, and also more likely to stop in their first year. The combined model strengthens the result that ethnic diversity matters (it is consistently significant across datasets, whereas it is not when onset is analysed separately), although in the UCD/PRIO dataset it is significant only for onset. By contrast, if continuation is analysed independently, virtually nothing is significant except a pre-1991 dummy and a dummy for civil war two years previously.

Catalogue et armoiries des grands maîtres de l'ordre de S. Jean de Jérusalem. Avec une continuation jusqu'en 1722.

Fonds non déterminé.

Catalogue des planches gravées en tous genres par les plus célèbres graveurs du XVe au XIXe siècle, composant le fonds de commerce d'éditeur d'estampes de Mme Vve Auguste Jean. Deuxième partie dont la vente, par continuation et par suite de cessation de commerce, aura lieu les mardi 16, mercredi 17, jeudi 18 et vendredi 19 juin 1846 et le lundi suivant, 22 juin, pour les cartes géographiques... Hôtel de ventes mobilières, place de la Bourse, n° 2... / Me Merlin, commissaire-priseur ; M. J. Vallée, expert, rue de Chartres-Dt.-Honoré, 8

[Vente. Art. 1846-06-16 - 1846-06-22. Paris]

Catalogue des planches gravées en tous genres par les plus célèbres graveurs du XVe au XIXe siècle, composant le fonds de commerce d'éditeur d'estampes de Mme Vve Auguste Jean. Troisième partie dont la vente, par continuation et par suite de cessation de commerce, aura lieu les mardi 24, mercredi 25, jeudi 26, vendredi 27 et samedi 28 novembre 1846... Hôtel de ventes mobilières, place de la Bourse, n° 2... / Me Merlin, commissaire-priseur ; M. J. Vallée, expert, rue de Chartres-Dt.-Honoré, 8

[Vente (Art). 1846-11-24 - 1846-11-28. Paris]

Continuation and discontinuation of local institution in community based natural resource management

Currently the push toward frontier areas, which until twenty years ago were still largely untouched by commercial agriculture, is taking place on a massive scale. This push is being driven not the least by global economic developments, such as the price increase of agriculture commodities like coffee and cocoa. In most cases the indigenous communities become trapped between the state monopoly in natural resource management and the competition for resources by external actors. In this processes the indigenous communities start to lose their access to resources. Another victim in this process is the environment where the natural resources are imbedded. International and national organizations working to conserve environment have became conscious of the important role that indigenous people could fulfill as partners in this endeavour. This partnership in struggle has produced a new discourse on the relationship between indigenous people and their environment. As a further consequence, programs were set up to develop what became known as Community Based Natural Resource Management (CBNRM) with its numerous variations. Based on a case study in a village on the eastern border of the Lore Lindu National Park in Central Sulawesi, this study questioned the basic assumption behind the concept of Community Based Natural Resource Management (CBNRM). Namely the assumption that communities living at the margin of forest are socially and culturally homogenous, still more or less egalitarian, and basically living in harmony with their natural environment. This study was inspired by the persistent critique – although still a minority – on the basic assumption the CBNRM from academicians and practitioners working through the Entitlement perspective. Another inspiration was the mounting critique toward the participatory approach. In its effort the study explore further the usefulness of certain approaches. One of the approach much relied on in this study was the local history of the community studied, through exerting oral and local written documents on local history, legends and local stories. These sources proofed quite capable in bringing the local history into the light. Another was the actor oriented approach, which later came to be supported by the concept of Social Pool Resources. The latter concept proofed to be useful as analytical instrument to integrate social institutions and the common pool resources, as a field of action for the different actors as human agencies.