Global, regional, and national incidence, prevalence, and years lived with disability for 301 acute and chronic diseases and injuries in 188 countries, 1990–2013: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2013

Background Up-to-date evidence about levels and trends in disease and injury incidence, prevalence, and years lived with disability (YLDs) is an essential input into global, regional, and national health policies. In the Global Burden of Disease Study 2013 (GBD 2013), we estimated these quantities for acute and chronic diseases and injuries for 188 countries between 1990 and 2013. Methods Estimates were calculated for disease and injury incidence, prevalence, and YLDs using GBD 2010 methods with some important refi nements. Results for incidence of acute disorders and prevalence of chronic disorders are new additions to the analysis. Key improvements include expansion to the cause and sequelae list, updated systematic reviews, use of detailed injury codes, improvements to the Bayesian meta-regression method (DisMod-MR), and use of severity splits for various causes. An index of data representativeness, showing data availability, was calculated for each cause and impairment during three periods globally and at the country level for 2013. In total, 35 620 distinct sources of data were used and documented to calculated estimates for 301 diseases and injuries and 2337 sequelae. The comorbidity simulation provides estimates for the number of sequelae, concurrently, by individuals by country, year, age, and sex. Disability weights were updated with the addition of new population-based survey data from four countries. Findings Disease and injury were highly prevalent; only a small fraction of individuals had no sequelae. Comorbidity rose substantially with age and in absolute terms from 1990 to 2013. Incidence of acute sequelae were predominantly infectious diseases and short-term injuries, with over 2 billion cases of upper respiratory infections and diarrhoeal disease episodes in 2013, with the notable exception of tooth pain due to permanent caries with more than 200 million incident cases in 2013. Conversely, leading chronic sequelae were largely attributable to non-communicable diseases, with prevalence estimates for asymptomatic permanent caries and tension-type headache of 2∙4 billion and 1∙6 billion, respectively. The distribution of the number of sequelae in populations varied widely across regions, with an expected relation between age and disease prevalence. YLDs for both sexes increased from 537∙6 million in 1990 to 764∙8 million in 2013 due to population growth and ageing, whereas the age-standardised rate decreased little from 114∙87 per 1000 people to 110∙31 per 1000 people between 1990 and 2013. Leading causes of YLDs included low back pain and major depressive disorder among the top ten causes of YLDs in every country. YLD rates per person, by major cause groups, indicated the main drivers of increases were due to musculoskeletal, mental, and substance use disorders, neurological disorders, and chronic respiratory diseases; however HIV/AIDS was a notable driver of increasing YLDs in sub-Saharan Africa. Also, the proportion of disability-adjusted life years due to YLDs increased globally from 21·1% in 1990 to 31·2% in 2013. Interpretation Ageing of the world’s population is leading to a substantial increase in the numbers of individuals with sequelae of diseases and injuries. Rates of YLDs are declining much more slowly than mortality rates. The non-fatal dimensions of disease and injury will require more and more attention from health systems. The transition to nonfatal outcomes as the dominant source of burden of disease is occurring rapidly outside of sub-Saharan Africa. Our results can guide future health initiatives through examination of epidemiological trends and a better understanding of variation across countries.

Mitochondrial Malfunction in Tumor Formation and Neuromuscular Diseases : Consequences of defects in fumarate hydratase and in the respiratory chain

The mitochondrion is an organelle of outmost importance, and the mitochondrial network performs an array of functions that go well beyond ATP synthesis. Defects in mitochondrial performance lead to diseases, often affecting nervous system and muscle. Although many of these mitochondrial diseases have been linked to defects in specific genes, the molecular mechanisms underlying the pathologies remain unclear. The work in this thesis aims to determine how defects in mitochondria are communicated within - and interpreted by - the cells, and how this contributes to disease phenotypes. Fumarate hydratase (FH) is an enzyme of the citrate cycle. Recessive defects in FH lead to infantile mitochondrial encephalopathies, while dominant mutations predispose to tumor formation. Defects in succinate dehydrogenase (SDH), the enzyme that precedes FH in the citrate cycle, have also been described. Mutations in SDH subunits SDHB, SDHC and SDHD are associated with tumor predisposition, while mutations in SDHA lead to a characteristic mitochondrial encephalopathy of childhood. Thus, the citrate cycle, via FH and SDH, seems to have essential roles in mitochondrial function, as well as in the regulation of processes such as cell proliferation, differentiation or death. Tumor predisposition is not a typical feature of mitochondrial energy deficiency diseases. However, defects in citrate cycle enzymes also affect mitochondrial energy metabolism. It is therefore necessary to distinguish what is specific for defects in citrate cycle, and thus possibly associated with the tumor phenotype, from the generic consequences of defects in mitochondrial aerobic metabolism. We used primary fibroblasts from patients with recessive FH defects to study the cellular consequences of FH-deficiency (FH-). Similarly to the tumors observed in FH- patients, these fibroblasts have very low FH activity. The use of primary cells has the advantage that they are diploid, in contrast with the aneuploid tumor cells, thereby enabling the study of the early consequences of FH- in diploid background, before tumorigenesis and aneuploidy. To distinguish the specific consequences of FH- from typical consequences of defects in mitochondrial aerobic metabolism, we used primary fibroblasts from patients with MELAS (mitochondrial encephalopathy with lactic acidosis and stroke-like episodes) and from patients with NARP (neuropathy, ataxia and retinitis pigmentosa). These diseases also affect mitochondrial aerobic metabolism but are not known to predispose to tumor formation. To study in vivo the systemic consequences of defects in mitochondrial aerobic metabolism, we used a transgenic mouse model of late-onset mitochondrial myopathy. The mouse contains a transgene with an in-frame duplication of a segment of Twinkle, the mitochondrial replicative helicase, whose defects underlie the human disease progressive external ophthalmoplegia. This mouse model replicates the phenotype in the patients, particularly neuronal degeneration, mitochondrial myopathy, and subtle decrease of respiratory chain activity associated with mtDNA deletions. Due to the accumulation of mtDNA deletions, the mouse was named deletor. We first studied the consequences of FH- and of respiratory chain defects for energy metabolism in primary fibroblasts. To further characterize the effects of FH- and respiratory chain malfunction in primary fibroblasts at transcriptional level, we used expression microarrays. In order to understand the in vivo consequences of respiratory chain defects in vivo, we also studied the transcriptional consequences of Twinkle defects in deletor mice skeletal muscle, cerebellum and hippocampus. Fumarate accumulated in the FH- homozygous cells, but not in the compound heterozygous lines. However, virtually all FH- lines lacked cytoplasmic FH. Induction of glycolysis was common to FH-, MELAS and NARP fibroblasts. In deletor muscle glycolysis seemed to be upregulated. This was in contrast with deletor cerebellum and hippocampus, where mitochondrial biogenesis was in progress. Despite sharing a glycolytic pattern in energy metabolism, FH- and respiratory chain defects led to opposite consequences in redox environment. FH- was associated with reduced redox environment, while MELAS and NARP displayed evidences of oxidative stress. The deletor cerebellum had transcriptional induction of antioxidant defenses, suggesting increased production of reactive oxygen species. Since the fibroblasts do not represent the tissues where the tumors appear in FH- patients, we compared the fibroblast array data with the data from FH- leiomyomas and normal myometrium. This allowed the determination of the pathways and networks affected by FH-deficiency in primary cells that are also relevant for myoma formation. A key pathway regulating smooth muscle differentiation, SRF (serum response factor)-FOS-JUNB, was found to be downregulated in FH- cells and in myomas. While in the deletor mouse many pathways were affected in a tissue-specific basis, like FGF21 induction in the deletor muscle, others were systemic, such as the downregulation of ALAS2-linked heme synthesis in all deletor tissues analyzed. However, interestingly, even a tissue-specific response of FGF21 excretion could elicit a global starvation response. The work presented in this thesis has contributed to a better understanding of mitochondrial stress signalling and of pathways interpreting and transducing it to human pathology.

Controlling plant and fruit diseases in strawberry fields

Grey mould, powdery mildew and stem-end rot are major diseases affecting the strawberry industry. Some of the chemicals used are ineffective under wet weather, have limits to the number of applications allowed in a season or may become ineffective in the long-term because of the development of resistance in the fungi. We will assess the effectiveness of the chemicals currently used by the strawberry industry and whether the fruit rot fungi are resistant to these fungicides. We will screen other chemicals that are used to control these diseases in related crops. We will also evaluate new chemicals in collaboration with the crop protectant industry. We will also undertake similar work to control nematodes in strawberry fields.

Foliar, fruit and soilborne diseases.

This chapter provides an in-depth review of important diseases affecting avocado production throughout the world. The importance of understanding the interaction of plant pathogens with their avocado host in order for the development of disease management options is also discussed.

Trade-offs between cancer and other diseases: do they exist and influence longevity?

Relationships between aging, disease risks, and longevity are not yet well understood. For example, joint increases in cancer risk and total survival observed in many human populations and some experimental aging studies may be linked to a trade-off between cancer and aging as well as to the trade-off(s) between cancer and other diseases, and their relative impact is not clear. While the former trade-off (between cancer and aging) received broad attention in aging research, the latter one lacks respective studies, although its understanding is important for developing optimal strategies of increasing both longevity and healthy life span. In this paper, we explore the possibility of trade-offs between risks of cancer and selected major disorders. First, we review current literature suggesting that the trade-offs between cancer and other diseases may exist and be linked to the differential intensity of apoptosis. Then we select relevant disorders for the analysis (acute coronary heart disease [ACHD], stroke, asthma, and Alzheimer disease [AD]) and calculate the risk of cancer among individuals with each of these disorders, and vice versa, using the Framingham Study (5209 individuals) and the National Long Term Care Survey (NLTCS) (38,214 individuals) data. We found a reduction in cancer risk among old (80+) men with stroke and in risk of ACHD among men (50+) with cancer in the Framingham Study. We also found an increase in ACHD and stroke among individuals with cancer, and a reduction in cancer risk among women with AD in the NLTCS. The manifestation of trade-offs between risks of cancer and other diseases thus depended on sex, age, and study population. We discuss factors modulating the potential trade-offs between major disorders in populations, e.g., disease treatments. Further study is needed to clarify possible impact of such trade-offs on longevity.

GIS-based Association Between PM10 and Allergic Diseases in Seoul: Implications for Health and Environmental Policy.

PURPOSE: The role of PM10 in the development of allergic diseases remains controversial among epidemiological studies, partly due to the inability to control for spatial variations in large-scale risk factors. This study aims to investigate spatial correspondence between the level of PM10 and allergic diseases at the sub-district level in Seoul, Korea, in order to evaluate whether the impact of PM10 is observable and spatially varies across the subdistricts. METHODS: PM10 measurements at 25 monitoring stations in the city were interpolated to 424 sub-districts where annual inpatient and outpatient count data for 3 types of allergic diseases (atopic dermatitis, asthma, and allergic rhinitis) were collected. We estimated multiple ordinary least square regression models to examine the association of the PM10 level with each of the allergic diseases, controlling for various sub-district level covariates. Geographically weighted regression (GWR) models were conducted to evaluate how the impact of PM10 varies across the sub-districts. RESULTS: PM10 was found to be a significant predictor of atopic dermatitis patient count (P<0.01), with greater association when spatially interpolated at the sub-district level. No significant effect of PM10 was observed on allergic rhinitis and asthma when socioeconomic factors were controlled for. GWR models revealed spatial variation of PM10 effects on atopic dermatitis across the sub-districts in Seoul. The relationship of PM10 levels to atopic dermatitis patient counts is found to be significant only in the Gangbuk region (P<0.01), along with other covariates including average land value, poverty rate, level of education and apartment rate (P<0.01). CONCLUSIONS: Our findings imply that PM10 effects on allergic diseases might not be consistent throughout Seoul. GIS-based spatial modeling techniques could play a role in evaluating spatial variation of air pollution impacts on allergic diseases at the sub-district level, which could provide valuable guidelines for environmental and public health policymakers.

NPY and cardiac diseases

Hypertension-induced left ventricular hypertrophy (LVH), along with ischemic heart disease, result in LV remodeling as part of a continuum that often leads to congestive heart failure. The neurohormonal model has been used to underpin many treatment strategies, but optimal outcomes have not been achieved. Neuropeptide Y (NPY) has emerged as an additional therapeutic target, ever since it was recognised as an important mediator released from sympathetic nerves in the heart, affecting coronary artery constriction and myocardial contraction. More recent interest has focused on the mitogenic and hypertrophic effects that are observed in endothelial and vascular smooth muscle cells, and cardiac myocytes. Of the six identified NPY receptor subtypes, Y-1, Y-2, and Y-5 appear to mediate the main functional responses in the heart. Plasma levels of NPY become elevated due to the increased sympathetic activation present in stress-related cardiac conditions. Also, NPY and Y receptor polymorphisms have been identified that may predispose individuals to increased risk of hypertension and cardiac complications. This review examines what understanding exists regarding the likely contribution of NPY to cardiac pathology. It appears that NPY may play a part in compensatory or detrimental remodeling of myocardial tissue subsequent to hemodynamic overload or myocardial infarction, and in angiogenic processes to regenerate myocardium after ischemic injury. However, greater mechanistic information is required in order to truly assess the potential for treatment of cardiac diseases using NPY-based drugs.