Empirical study of correlated survival times for recurrent events with proportional hazards margins and the effect of correlation and censoring.

Background: In longitudinal studies where subjects experience recurrent incidents over a period of time, such as respiratory infections, fever or diarrhea, statistical methods are required to take into account the within-subject correlation. Methods: For repeated events data with censored failure, the independent increment (AG), marginal (WLW) and conditional (PWP) models are three multiple failure models that generalize Cox"s proportional hazard model. In this paper, we revise the efficiency, accuracy and robustness of all three models under simulated scenarios with varying degrees of within-subject correlation, censoring levels, maximum number of possible recurrences and sample size. We also study the methods performance on a real dataset from a cohort study with bronchial obstruction. Results: We find substantial differences between methods and there is not an optimal method. AG and PWP seem to be preferable to WLW for low correlation levels but the situation reverts for high correlations. Conclusions: All methods are stable in front of censoring, worsen with increasing recurrence levels and share a bias problem which, among other consequences, makes asymptotic normal confidence intervals not fully reliable, although they are well developed theoretically.

The BTB/POZ Transcription Factor Miz-1 Is Required To Regulate The Commitment, Survival And Differentiation Of Early B And T Cell Lineages

Les lymphocytes B et T sont issus de cellules progénitrices lymphoïdes de la moelle osseuse qui se différencient grâce à l’action de facteurs de transcription, cytokines et voies de signalisation, dont l’interleukine-7 (IL-7)/IL-7 récepteur (IL-7R). Le facteur de transcription c-Myc est exprimé par les cellules lymphoïdes et contrôle leur croissance et leur différenciation. Cette régulation transcriptionnelle peut être coordonnée par le complexe c-Myc/Myc-Interacting Zinc finger protein-1 (Miz-1). Le but de ce projet était de comprendre les mécanismes qui impliquent Miz-1 et le complexe c-Myc/Miz-1 dans le développement des lymphocytes B et T. Pour réaliser ce projet, des souris déficientes pour le domaine de transactivation de Miz-1 (Miz-1POZ) et des souris à allèles mutantes pour c-MycV394D, mutation qui empêche l’interaction avec Miz-1, ont été générées. La caractérisation des souris Miz 1POZ a démontré que l’inactivation de Miz-1 perturbe le développement des lymphocytes B et T aux stades précoces de leur différenciation qui dépend de l’IL-7. L’analyse de la cascade de signalisation IL-7/IL-7R a montré que ces cellules surexpriment la protéine inhibitrice SOCS1 qui empêche la phosphorylation de STAT5 et perturbe la régulation à la hausse de la protéine de survie Bcl-2. De plus, Miz-1 se lie directement au promoteur de SOCS1 et contrôle son activité. En plus de contrôler l’axe IL-7/IL-7R/STAT5/Bcl-2 spécifiquement aux stades précoces du développement afin d’assurer la survie des progéniteurs B et T, Miz-1 régule l’axe EBF/Pax-5/Rag-1/2 dans les cellules B afin de coordonner les signaux nécessaires pour la différenciation des cellules immatures. La caractérisation des souris c-MycV394D a montré, quant à elle, que les fonctions de Miz-1 dans les cellules B et T semblent indépendantes de c-Myc. Les cellules T des souris Miz-1POZ ont un défaut de différenciation additionnel au niveau de la -sélection, étape où les signaux initiés par le TCR remplacent ceux induits par IL-7 pour assurer la prolifération et la différenciation des thymocytes en stades plus matures. À cette étape du développement, une forme fonctionnelle de Miz-1 semble être requise pour contrôler le niveau d’activation de la voie p53, induite lors du processus de réarrangement V(D)J du TCR. L’expression de gènes pro-apoptotiques PUMA, NOXA, Bax et du régulateur de cycle cellulaire p21CIP1 est régulée à la hausse dans les cellules des souris Miz-1POZ. Ceci provoque un débalancement pro-apoptotique qui empêche la progression du cycle cellulaire des cellules TCR-positives. La survie des cellules peut être rétablie à ce stade de différenciation en assurant une coordination adéquate entre les signaux initiés par l’introduction d’un TCR transgénique et d’un transgène codant pour la protéine Bcl-2. En conclusion, ces études ont montré que Miz-1 intervient à deux niveaux du développement lymphoïde: l’un précoce en contrôlant la signalisation induite par l’IL-7 dans les cellules B et T, en plus de l’axe EBF/Pax-5/Rag-1/2 dans les cellules B; et l’autre tardif, en coordonnant les signaux de survie issus par le TCR et p53 dans les cellules T. Étant donné que les thymocytes et lymphocytes B immatures sont sujets à plusieurs rondes de prolifération, ces études serviront à mieux comprendre l’implication des régulateurs du cycle cellulaire comme c-Myc et Miz-1 dans la génération des signaux nécessaires à la différenciation non aberrante et à la survie des ces cellules. Enfin, les modèles expérimentaux, souris déficientes ou à allèles mutantes, utilisés pour ce travail permettront de mieux définir les bases moléculaires de la transformation maligne des lymphocytes B et T et de révéler les mécanismes conduisant au lymphome.

Characterizations of Life Distributions Using Conditional Expectations of Doubly (Interval) Truncated Random Variables

In this article, we study reliability measures such as geometric vitality function and conditional Shannon’s measures of uncertainty proposed by Ebrahimi (1996) and Sankaran and Gupta (1999), respectively, for the doubly (interval) truncated random variables. In survival analysis and reliability engineering, these measures play a significant role in studying the various characteristics of a system/component when it fails between two time points. The interrelationships among these uncertainty measures for various distributions are derived and proved characterization theorems arising out of them

Conditional male dimorphism and alternative reproductive tactics in a Neotropical arachnid (Opiliones)

In arthropods, most cases of morphological dimorphism within males are the result of a conditional evolutionarily stable strategy (ESS) with status-dependent tactics. In conditionally male-dimorphic species, the status` distributions of male morphs often overlap, and the environmentally cued threshold model (ET) states that the degree of overlap depends on the genetic variation in the distribution of the switchpoints that determine which morph is expressed in each value of status. Here we describe male dimorphism and alternative mating behaviors in the harvestman Serracutisoma proximum. Majors express elongated second legs and use them in territorial fights; minors possess short second legs and do not fight, but rather sneak into majors` territories and copulate with egg-guarding females. The static allometry of second legs reveals that major phenotype expression depends on body size (status), and that the switchpoint underlying the dimorphism presents a large amount of genetic variation in the population, which probably results from weak selective pressure on this trait. With a mark-recapture study, we show that major phenotype expression does not result in survival costs, which is consistent with our hypothesis that there is weak selection on the switchpoint. Finally, we demonstrate that switchpoint is independent of status distribution. In conclusion, our data support the ET model prediction that the genetic correlation between status and switchpoint is low, allowing the status distribution to evolve or to fluctuate seasonally, without any effect on the position of the mean switchpoint.

A Generalized Log-Normal Model for Grouped Survival Data

Conselho Nacional de Desenvolvimento Científico e Tecnológico (CNPq)

Designed Extension of Survival Studies: Application to Clinical Trials with Unrecognized Heterogeneity

It is well known that unrecognized heterogeneity among patients, such as is conferred by genetic subtype, can undermine the power of randomized trial, designed under the assumption of homogeneity, to detect a truly beneficial treatment. We consider the conditional power approach to allow for recovery of power under unexplained heterogeneity. While Proschan and Hunsberger (1995) confined the application of conditional power design to normally distributed observations, we consider more general and difficult settings in which the data are in the framework of continuous time and are subject to censoring. In particular, we derive a procedure appropriate for the analysis of the weighted log rank test under the assumption of a proportional hazards frailty model. The proposed method is illustrated through application to a brain tumor trial.

Bayesian and survival model for tumor relapse status and disease-specific survival, with applications to breast cancer

Breast cancer is the most common non-skin cancer and the second leading cause of cancer-related death in women in the United States. Studies on ipsilateral breast tumor relapse (IBTR) status and disease-specific survival will help guide clinic treatment and predict patient prognosis.^ After breast conservation therapy, patients with breast cancer may experience breast tumor relapse. This relapse is classified into two distinct types: true local recurrence (TR) and new ipsilateral primary tumor (NP). However, the methods used to classify the relapse types are imperfect and are prone to misclassification. In addition, some observed survival data (e.g., time to relapse and time from relapse to death)are strongly correlated with relapse types. The first part of this dissertation presents a Bayesian approach to (1) modeling the potentially misclassified relapse status and the correlated survival information, (2) estimating the sensitivity and specificity of the diagnostic methods, and (3) quantify the covariate effects on event probabilities. A shared frailty was used to account for the within-subject correlation between survival times. The inference was conducted using a Bayesian framework via Markov Chain Monte Carlo simulation implemented in softwareWinBUGS. Simulation was used to validate the Bayesian method and assess its frequentist properties. The new model has two important innovations: (1) it utilizes the additional survival times correlated with the relapse status to improve the parameter estimation, and (2) it provides tools to address the correlation between the two diagnostic methods conditional to the true relapse types.^ Prediction of patients at highest risk for IBTR after local excision of ductal carcinoma in situ (DCIS) remains a clinical concern. The goals of the second part of this dissertation were to evaluate a published nomogram from Memorial Sloan-Kettering Cancer Center, to determine the risk of IBTR in patients with DCIS treated with local excision, and to determine whether there is a subset of patients at low risk of IBTR. Patients who had undergone local excision from 1990 through 2007 at MD Anderson Cancer Center with a final diagnosis of DCIS (n=794) were included in this part. Clinicopathologic factors and the performance of the Memorial Sloan-Kettering Cancer Center nomogram for prediction of IBTR were assessed for 734 patients with complete data. Nomogram for prediction of 5- and 10-year IBTR probabilities were found to demonstrate imperfect calibration and discrimination, with an area under the receiver operating characteristic curve of .63 and a concordance index of .63. In conclusion, predictive models for IBTR in DCIS patients treated with local excision are imperfect. Our current ability to accurately predict recurrence based on clinical parameters is limited.^ The American Joint Committee on Cancer (AJCC) staging of breast cancer is widely used to determine prognosis, yet survival within each AJCC stage shows wide variation and remains unpredictable. For the third part of this dissertation, biologic markers were hypothesized to be responsible for some of this variation, and the addition of biologic markers to current AJCC staging were examined for possibly provide improved prognostication. The initial cohort included patients treated with surgery as first intervention at MDACC from 1997 to 2006. Cox proportional hazards models were used to create prognostic scoring systems. AJCC pathologic staging parameters and biologic tumor markers were investigated to devise the scoring systems. Surveillance Epidemiology and End Results (SEER) data was used as the external cohort to validate the scoring systems. Binary indicators for pathologic stage (PS), estrogen receptor status (E), and tumor grade (G) were summed to create PS+EG scoring systems devised to predict 5-year patient outcomes. These scoring systems facilitated separation of the study population into more refined subgroups than the current AJCC staging system. The ability of the PS+EG score to stratify outcomes was confirmed in both internal and external validation cohorts. The current study proposes and validates a new staging system by incorporating tumor grade and ER status into current AJCC staging. We recommend that biologic markers be incorporating into revised versions of the AJCC staging system for patients receiving surgery as the first intervention.^ Chapter 1 focuses on developing a Bayesian method to solve misclassified relapse status and application to breast cancer data. Chapter 2 focuses on evaluation of a breast cancer nomogram for predicting risk of IBTR in patients with DCIS after local excision gives the statement of the problem in the clinical research. Chapter 3 focuses on validation of a novel staging system for disease-specific survival in patients with breast cancer treated with surgery as the first intervention. ^

Cell survival in early embryogenesis requires proper dosage of GCN5 and p300

Histone acetylation is a central event in transcriptional activation. The importance of this modification in mammalian development is highlighted by knockout studies that revealed loss of the histone acetyltransferases GCN5, p300, or CBP results in embryonic lethality. Furthermore, early embryogenesis is sensitive to the dosage of p300 and CBP since double p300 +/−CBP+/− heterozygotes die in utero, although either single heterozygote survives. PCAF and GCN5 physically interact with p300 and CBP in vitro. To determine whether these two groups of HATs interact functionally in vivo, we created mice lacking one or more allele of p300, GCN5 or PCAF. As expected, we found that mice heterozygous for any one of these null alleles are viable. The majority of GCN5 p300 double heterozygotes also survive to adulthood with no apparent abnormalities. However, a portion of these mice die prior to birth. These embryos are developmentally stunted and exhibit increased apoptosis compared to wild type or single GCN5 or p300 heterozygous littermates at E8.5. Tissue specification is unaffected in these embryos but organ formation is compromised. In contrast, no abnormalities were observed in mice harboring mutations in both PCAF and p300 , emphasizing the specificity of HAT functions in mammalian development. ^ Since GCN5 null embryos die early in embryogenesis because of a marked increase in apoptosis, studies of its function and mechanism in late development and in tissue specific differentiation are precluded. Here, we also report the establishment of a GCN5 null embryonic stem cell line and a conditional floxGCN5 mouse line, which will serve as powerful genetic tools to examine in depth the function of GCN5 in mammalian development and in adult tissues. ^

Conditional switching of vascular endothelial growth factor (VEGF) expression in tumors: Induction of endothelial cell shedding and regression of hemangioblastoma-like vessels by VEGF withdrawal

We have recently shown that VEGF functions as a survival factor for newly formed vessels during developmental neovascularization, but is not required for maintenance of mature vessels. Reasoning that expanding tumors contain a significant fraction of newly formed and remodeling vessels, we examined whether abrupt withdrawal of VEGF will result in regression of preformed tumor vessels. Using a tetracycline-regulated VEGF expression system in xenografted C6 glioma cells, we showed that shutting off VEGF production leads to detachment of endothelial cells from the walls of preformed vessels and their subsequent death by apoptosis. Vascular collapse then leads to hemorrhages and extensive tumor necrosis. These results suggest that enforced withdrawal of vascular survival factors can be applied to target preformed tumor vasculature in established tumors. The system was also used to examine phenotypes resulting from over-expression of VEGF. When expression of the transfected VEGF cDNA was continuously “on,” tumors became hyper-vascularized with abnormally large vessels, presumably arising from excessive fusions. Tumors were significantly less necrotic, suggesting that necrosis in these tumors is the result of insufficient angiogenesis.

One Step Forward: Contrasting The Effects Of Toe Clipping And Pit Tagging On Frog Survival And Recapture Probability.

Amphibians have been declining worldwide and the comprehension of the threats that they face could be improved by using mark-recapture models to estimate vital rates of natural populations. Recently, the consequences of marking amphibians have been under discussion and the effects of toe clipping on survival are debatable, although it is still the most common technique for individually identifying amphibians. The passive integrated transponder (PIT tag) is an alternative technique, but comparisons among marking techniques in free-ranging populations are still lacking. We compared these two marking techniques using mark-recapture models to estimate apparent survival and recapture probability of a neotropical population of the blacksmith tree frog, Hypsiboas faber. We tested the effects of marking technique and number of toe pads removed while controlling for sex. Survival was similar among groups, although slightly decreased from individuals with one toe pad removed, to individuals with two and three toe pads removed, and finally to PIT-tagged individuals. No sex differences were detected. Recapture probability slightly increased with the number of toe pads removed and was the lowest for PIT-tagged individuals. Sex was an important predictor for recapture probability, with males being nearly five times more likely to be recaptured. Potential negative effects of both techniques may include reduced locomotion and high stress levels. We recommend the use of covariates in models to better understand the effects of marking techniques on frogs. Accounting for the effect of the technique on the results should be considered, because most techniques may reduce survival. Based on our results, but also on logistical and cost issues associated with PIT tagging, we suggest the use of toe clipping with anurans like the blacksmith tree frog.

Analysis Of The Contribution Of Immunologically-detectable Her2, Steroid Receptors And Of The Triple-negative" Tumor Status To Disease-free And Overall Survival Of Women With Epithelial Ovarian Cancer."

We assessed associations between steroid receptors including: estrogen-alpha, estrogen-beta, androgen receptor, progesterone receptor, the HER2 status and triple-negative epithelial ovarian cancer (ERα-/PR-/HER2-; TNEOC) status and survival in women with epithelial ovarian cancer. The study included 152 women with primary epithelial ovarian cancer. The status of steroid receptor and HER2 was determined by immunohistochemistry. Disease-free and overall survival were calculated and compared with steroid receptor and HER2 status as well as clinicopathological features using the Cox Proportional Hazards model. A mean follow-up period of 43.6 months (interquartile range=41.4 months) was achieved where 44% of patients had serous tumor, followed by mucinous (23%), endometrioid (9%), mixed (9%), undifferentiated (8.5%) and clear cell tumors (5.3%). ER-alpha staining was associated with grade II-III tumors. Progesterone receptor staining was positively associated with a Body Mass Index≥25. Androgen receptor positivity was higher in serous tumors. In stand-alone analysis of receptor contribution to survival, estrogen-alpha positivity was associated with greater disease-free survival. However, there was no significant association between steroid receptor expression, HER2 status, or TNEOC status, and overall survival. Although estrogen-alpha, androgen receptor, progesterone receptor and the HER2 status were associated with key clinical features of the women and pathological characteristics of the tumors, these associations were not implicated in survival. Interestingly, women with TNEOC seem to fare the same way as their counterparts with non-TNEOC.

Galectin-3 Up-regulation In Hypoxic And Nutrient Deprived Microenvironments Promotes Cell Survival.

Galectin-3 (gal-3) is a β-galactoside binding protein related to many tumoral aspects, e.g. angiogenesis, cell growth and motility and resistance to cell death. Evidence has shown its upregulation upon hypoxia, a common feature in solid tumors such as glioblastoma multiformes (GBM). This tumor presents a unique feature described as pseudopalisading cells, which accumulate large amounts of gal-3. Tumor cells far from hypoxic/nutrient deprived areas express little, if any gal-3. Here, we have shown that the hybrid glioma cell line, NG97ht, recapitulates GBM growth forming gal-3 positive pseudopalisades even when cells are grafted subcutaneously in nude mice. In vitro experiments were performed exposing these cells to conditions mimicking tumor areas that display oxygen and nutrient deprivation. Results indicated that gal-3 transcription under hypoxic conditions requires previous protein synthesis and is triggered in a HIF-1α and NF-κB dependent manner. In addition, a significant proportion of cells die only when exposed simultaneously to hypoxia and nutrient deprivation and demonstrate ROS induction. Inhibition of gal-3 expression using siRNA led to protein knockdown followed by a 1.7-2.2 fold increase in cell death. Similar results were also found in a human GBM cell line, T98G. In vivo, U87MG gal-3 knockdown cells inoculated subcutaneously in nude mice demonstrated decreased tumor growth and increased time for tumor engraftment. These results indicate that gal-3 protected cells from cell death under hypoxia and nutrient deprivation in vitro and that gal-3 is a key factor in tumor growth and engraftment in hypoxic and nutrient-deprived microenvironments. Overexpression of gal-3, thus, is part of an adaptive program leading to tumor cell survival under these stressing conditions.

Survival Extrapolation In The Presence Of Cause Specific Hazards.

Health economic evaluations require estimates of expected survival from patients receiving different interventions, often over a lifetime. However, data on the patients of interest are typically only available for a much shorter follow-up time, from randomised trials or cohorts. Previous work showed how to use general population mortality to improve extrapolations of the short-term data, assuming a constant additive or multiplicative effect on the hazards for all-cause mortality for study patients relative to the general population. A more plausible assumption may be a constant effect on the hazard for the specific cause of death targeted by the treatments. To address this problem, we use independent parametric survival models for cause-specific mortality among the general population. Because causes of death are unobserved for the patients of interest, a polyhazard model is used to express their all-cause mortality as a sum of latent cause-specific hazards. Assuming proportional cause-specific hazards between the general and study populations then allows us to extrapolate mortality of the patients of interest to the long term. A Bayesian framework is used to jointly model all sources of data. By simulation, we show that ignoring cause-specific hazards leads to biased estimates of mean survival when the proportion of deaths due to the cause of interest changes through time. The methods are applied to an evaluation of implantable cardioverter defibrillators for the prevention of sudden cardiac death among patients with cardiac arrhythmia. After accounting for cause-specific mortality, substantial differences are seen in estimates of life years gained from implantable cardioverter defibrillators.

Survival and quality of life of patients with oral and oropharyngeal cancer at 1-year follow-up of tumor resection

OBJECTIVE: This study aimed to assess the survival and life quality evolution of patients subjected to surgical excision of oral and oropharyngeal squamous cell carcinoma. MATERIAL AND METHODS: Forty-seven patients treated at a Brazilian healthcare unit specialized in head and neck surgery between 2006 and 2007 were enrolled in the study. The gathering of data comprised reviewing hospital files and applying the University of Washington Quality of Life (UW-QOL) questionnaire previously and 1 year after the surgery. Comparative analysis used Poisson regression to assess factors associated with survival and a paired t-test to compare preoperative and 1-year postoperative QOL ratings. RESULTS: 1 year after surgery, 7 patients were not found (dropout of the cohort); 15 had died and 25 fulfilled the UW-QOL again. The risk of death was associated with having regional metastasis previously to surgery (relative risk=2.18; 95% confidence interval=1.09-5.17) and tumor size T3 or T4 (RR=2.30; 95%CI=1.05-5.04). Survivors presented significantly (p<0.05) poorer overall and domain-specific ratings of quality of life. Chewing presented the largest reduction: from 74.0 before surgery to 34.0 one year later. Anxiety was the only domain whose average rating increased (from 36.0 to 70.7). CONCLUSIONS: The prospective assessment of survival and quality of life may contribute to anticipate interventions aimed at reducing the incidence of functional limitations in patients with oral and oropharyngeal cancer.