Tax morale and conditional cooperation

Why so many people pay their taxes, even though fines and audit probability are low, is a central question in the tax compliance literature. Positing a homo oeconomicus having a refined motivation structure sheds light on this puzzle. This paper provides empirical evidence for the relevance of conditional cooperation, using survey data from 30 West and East European countries. We find a high correlation between perceived tax evasion and tax morale. The results remain robust after exploiting endogeneity and conducting several robustness tests. We also observe a strong positive correlation between institutional quality and tax mmorale. Keywords: Tax morale; Tax compliance; Tax evasion; Pro-social behavior; Institutions

Exponentiated gradient algorithms for conditional random fields and max-margin Markov Networks

Log-linear and maximum-margin models are two commonly-used methods in supervised machine learning, and are frequently used in structured prediction problems. Efficient learning of parameters in these models is therefore an important problem, and becomes a key factor when learning from very large data sets. This paper describes exponentiated gradient (EG) algorithms for training such models, where EG updates are applied to the convex dual of either the log-linear or max-margin objective function; the dual in both the log-linear and max-margin cases corresponds to minimizing a convex function with simplex constraints. We study both batch and online variants of the algorithm, and provide rates of convergence for both cases. In the max-margin case, O(1/ε) EG updates are required to reach a given accuracy ε in the dual; in contrast, for log-linear models only O(log(1/ε)) updates are required. For both the max-margin and log-linear cases, our bounds suggest that the online EG algorithm requires a factor of n less computation to reach a desired accuracy than the batch EG algorithm, where n is the number of training examples. Our experiments confirm that the online algorithms are much faster than the batch algorithms in practice. We describe how the EG updates factor in a convenient way for structured prediction problems, allowing the algorithms to be efficiently applied to problems such as sequence learning or natural language parsing. We perform extensive evaluation of the algorithms, comparing them to L-BFGS and stochastic gradient descent for log-linear models, and to SVM-Struct for max-margin models. The algorithms are applied to a multi-class problem as well as to a more complex large-scale parsing task. In all these settings, the EG algorithms presented here outperform the other methods.

Sparseness vs estimating conditional probabilities : some asymptotic results

One of the nice properties of kernel classifiers such as SVMs is that they often produce sparse solutions. However, the decision functions of these classifiers cannot always be used to estimate the conditional probability of the class label. We investigate the relationship between these two properties and show that these are intimately related: sparseness does not occur when the conditional probabilities can be unambiguously estimated. We consider a family of convex loss functions and derive sharp asymptotic results for the fraction of data that becomes support vectors. This enables us to characterize the exact trade-off between sparseness and the ability to estimate conditional probabilities for these loss functions.

The Bayesian conditional independence model for measurement error: applications in ecology

The measurement error model is a well established statistical method for regression problems in medical sciences, although rarely used in ecological studies. While the situations in which it is appropriate may be less common in ecology, there are instances in which there may be benefits in its use for prediction and estimation of parameters of interest. We have chosen to explore this topic using a conditional independence model in a Bayesian framework using a Gibbs sampler, as this gives a great deal of flexibility, allowing us to analyse a number of different models without losing generality. Using simulations and two examples, we show how the conditional independence model can be used in ecology, and when it is appropriate.

Towards a service framework for remote sales support via augmented reality

Real-time sales assistant service is a problematic component of remote delivery of sales support for customers. Solutions involving web pages, telephony and video support prove problematic when seeking to remotely guide customers in their sales processes, especially with transactions revolving around physically complex artefacts. This process involves a number of services that are often complex in nature, ranging from physical compatibility and configuration factors, to availability and credit services. We propose the application of a combination of virtual worlds and augmented reality to create synthetic environments suitable for remote sales of physical artefacts, right in the home of the purchaser. A high level description of the service structure involved is shown, along with a use case involving the sale of electronic goods and services within an example augmented reality application. We expect this work to have application in many sales domains involving physical objects needing to be sold over the Internet.

An infinite-horizon robust filter for uncertain hidden Markov Models with conditional relative entropy constraints

We consider a robust filtering problem for uncertain discrete-time, homogeneous, first-order, finite-state hidden Markov models (HMMs). The class of uncertain HMMs considered is described by a conditional relative entropy constraint on measures perturbed from a nominal regular conditional probability distribution given the previous posterior state distribution and the latest measurement. Under this class of perturbations, a robust infinite horizon filtering problem is first formulated as a constrained optimization problem before being transformed via variational results into an unconstrained optimization problem; the latter can be elegantly solved using a risk-sensitive information-state based filtering.

A conditional retransmission enabled transport protocol for real-time networked control systems

Real-time networked control systems (NCSs) over data networks are being increasingly implemented on a massive scale in industrial applications. Along with this trend, wireless network technologies have been promoted for modern wireless NCSs (WNCSs). However, popular wireless network standards such as IEEE 802.11/15/16 are not designed for real-time communications. Key issues in real-time applications include limited transmission reliability and poor transmission delay performance. Considering the unique features of real-time control systems, this paper develops a conditional retransmission enabled transport protocol (CRETP) to improve the delay performance of the transmission control protocol (TCP) and also the reliability performance of the user datagram protocol (UDP) and its variants. Key features of the CRETP include a connectionless mechanism with acknowledgement (ACK), conditional retransmission and detection of ineffective data packets on the receiver side.

Expert elicitation into Bayesian networks, Part 4 of 4: eliciting a conditional probability table

An introduction to eliciting a conditional probability table in a Bayesian Network model, highlighting three efficient methods for populating a CPT.

Internet usage, internet intensity and international sales performance SME's : a structural model approach

There has been much written about the Internet’s potential to enhance international market growth opportunities for SME’s. However, the literature is vague as to how Internet usage and the application of Internet marketing also known as Internet marketing intensity has an impact on firm international market growth. This paper examines the level and role of the Internet in the international operations of a sample of 218 Australian SMEs with international customers. This study shows evidence of a statistical relationship between Internet usage and Internet marketing intensity, which in turn leads to international market growth, in terms of increased sales from new customers in new countries, new customers in existing countries and from existing customers.

The use of dashboards in performance management : evidence from sales managers

The purpose of this paper is to identify and empirically examine the key features, purposes, uses, and benefits of performance dashboards. We find that only about a quarter of the sales managers surveyed1 in Finland used a dashboard, which was lower than previously reported. Dashboards were used for four distinct purposes: (i) monitoring, (ii) problem solving, (iii) rationalizing, and (iv) communication and consistency. There was a high correlation between the different uses of dashboards and user productivity indicating that dashboards were perceived as effective tools in performance management, not just for monitoring one‟s own performance but for other purposes including communication. The quality of the data in dashboards did not seem to be a concern (except for completeness) but it was a critical driver regarding its use. This is the first empirical study on performance dashboards in terms of adoption rates, key features, and benefits. The study highlights the research potential and benefits of dashboards, which could be valuable for future researchers and practitioners.

ACE research vignette 010 : when do sales and employment grow together?

This series of research vignettes is aimed at sharing current and interesting research findings from our team and other international Entrepreneurship researchers. In this vignette, Professor Per Davidsson considers some of the dynamics associated with firm growth.