990 resultados para Conditional Monte Carlo conditioning
Resumo:
The nuclear isotropic shielding constants sigma((17)O) and sigma((13)C) of the carbonyl bond of acetone in water at supercritical (P=340.2 atm and T=673 K) and normal water conditions have been studied theoretically using Monte Carlo simulation and quantum mechanics calculations based on the B3LYP/6-311++G(2d,2p) method. Statistically uncorrelated configurations have been obtained from Monte Carlo simulations with unpolarized and in-solution polarized solute. The results show that solvent effects on the shielding constants have a significant contribution of the electrostatic interactions and that quantitative estimates for solvent shifts of shielding constants can be obtained modeling the water molecules by point charges (electrostatic embedding). In supercritical water, there is a decrease in the magnitude of sigma((13)C) but a sizable increase in the magnitude of sigma((17)O) when compared with the results obtained in normal water. It is found that the influence of the solute polarization is mild in the supercritical regime but it is particularly important for sigma((17)O) in normal water and its shielding effect reflects the increase in the average number of hydrogen bonds between acetone and water. Changing the solvent environment from normal to supercritical water condition, the B3LYP/6-311++G(2d,2p) calculations on the statistically uncorrelated configurations sampled from the Monte Carlo simulation give a (13)C chemical shift of 11.7 +/- 0.6 ppm for polarized acetone in good agreement with the experimentally inferred result of 9-11 ppm. (C) 2008 American Institute of Physics.
Resumo:
Stavskaya's model is a one-dimensional probabilistic cellular automaton (PCA) introduced in the end of the 1960s as an example of a model displaying a nonequilibrium phase transition. Although its absorbing state phase transition is well understood nowadays, the model never received a full numerical treatment to investigate its critical behavior. In this Brief Report we characterize the critical behavior of Stavskaya's PCA by means of Monte Carlo simulations and finite-size scaling analysis. The critical exponents of the model are calculated and indicate that its phase transition belongs to the directed percolation universality class of critical behavior, as would be expected on the basis of the directed percolation conjecture. We also explicitly establish the relationship of the model with the Domany-Kinzel PCA on its directed site percolation line, a connection that seems to have gone unnoticed in the literature so far.
Resumo:
Dimensionless spray flux Ψa is a dimensionless group that characterises the three most important variables in liquid dispersion: flowrate, drop size and powder flux through the spray zone. In this paper, the Poisson distribution was used to generate analytical solutions for the proportion of nuclei formed from single drops (fsingle) and the fraction of the powder surface covered by drops (fcovered) as a function of Ψa. Monte-Carlo simulations were performed to simulate the spray zone and investigate how Ψa, fsingle and fcovered are related. The Monte-Carlo data was an excellent match with analytical solutions of fcovered and fsingle as a function of Ψa. At low Ψa, the proportion of the surface covered by drops (fcovered) was equal to Ψa. As Ψa increases, drop overlap becomes more dominant and the powder surface coverage levels off. The proportion of nuclei formed from single drops (fsingle) falls exponentially with increasing Ψa. In the ranges covered, these results were independent of drop size, number of drops, drop size distribution (mono-sized, bimodal and trimodal distributions), and the uniformity of the spray. Experimental data of nuclei size distributions as a function of spray flux were fitted to the analytical solution for fsingle by defining a cutsize for single drop nuclei. The fitted cutsizes followed the spray drop sizes suggesting that the method is robust and that the cutsize does indicate the transition size between single drop and agglomerate nuclei. This demonstrates that the nuclei distribution is determined by the dimensionless spray flux and the fraction of drop controlled nuclei can be calculated analytically in advance.
Resumo:
The small sample performance of Granger causality tests under different model dimensions, degree of cointegration, direction of causality, and system stability are presented. Two tests based on maximum likelihood estimation of error-correction models (LR and WALD) are compared to a Wald test based on multivariate least squares estimation of a modified VAR (MWALD). In large samples all test statistics perform well in terms of size and power. For smaller samples, the LR and WALD tests perform better than the MWALD test. Overall, the LR test outperforms the other two in terms of size and power in small samples.
Resumo:
This paper presents results on the simulation of the solid state sintering of copper wires using Monte Carlo techniques based on elements of lattice theory and cellular automata. The initial structure is superimposed onto a triangular, two-dimensional lattice, where each lattice site corresponds to either an atom or vacancy. The number of vacancies varies with the simulation temperature, while a cluster of vacancies is a pore. To simulate sintering, lattice sites are picked at random and reoriented in terms of an atomistic model governing mass transport. The probability that an atom has sufficient energy to jump to a vacant lattice site is related to the jump frequency, and hence the diffusion coefficient, while the probability that an atomic jump will be accepted is related to the change in energy of the system as a result of the jump, as determined by the change in the number of nearest neighbours. The jump frequency is also used to relate model time, measured in Monte Carlo Steps, to the actual sintering time. The model incorporates bulk, grain boundary and surface diffusion terms and includes vacancy annihilation on the grain boundaries. The predictions of the model were found to be consistent with experimental data, both in terms of the microstructural evolution and in terms of the sintering time. (C) 2002 Elsevier Science B.V. All rights reserved.
Resumo:
The rapid growth in genetics and molecular biology combined with the development of techniques for genetically engineering small animals has led to increased interest in in vivo small animal imaging. Small animal imaging has been applied frequently to the imaging of small animals (mice and rats), which are ubiquitous in modeling human diseases and testing treatments. The use of PET in small animals allows the use of subjects as their own control, reducing the interanimal variability. This allows performing longitudinal studies on the same animal and improves the accuracy of biological models. However, small animal PET still suffers from several limitations. The amounts of radiotracers needed, limited scanner sensitivity, image resolution and image quantification issues, all could clearly benefit from additional research. Because nuclear medicine imaging deals with radioactive decay, the emission of radiation energy through photons and particles alongside with the detection of these quanta and particles in different materials make Monte Carlo method an important simulation tool in both nuclear medicine research and clinical practice. In order to optimize the quantitative use of PET in clinical practice, data- and image-processing methods are also a field of intense interest and development. The evaluation of such methods often relies on the use of simulated data and images since these offer control of the ground truth. Monte Carlo simulations are widely used for PET simulation since they take into account all the random processes involved in PET imaging, from the emission of the positron to the detection of the photons by the detectors. Simulation techniques have become an importance and indispensable complement to a wide range of problems that could not be addressed by experimental or analytical approaches.
Resumo:
Mestrado em Radiações Aplicadas às Tecnologias da Saúde. Área de especialização: Protecção contra Radiações
Resumo:
This paper proposes a new methodology to reduce the probability of occurring states that cause load curtailment, while minimizing the involved costs to achieve that reduction. The methodology is supported by a hybrid method based on Fuzzy Set and Monte Carlo Simulation to catch both randomness and fuzziness of component outage parameters of transmission power system. The novelty of this research work consists in proposing two fundamentals approaches: 1) a global steady approach which deals with building the model of a faulted transmission power system aiming at minimizing the unavailability corresponding to each faulted component in transmission power system. This, results in the minimal global cost investment for the faulted components in a system states sample of the transmission network; 2) a dynamic iterative approach that checks individually the investment’s effect on the transmission network. A case study using the Reliability Test System (RTS) 1996 IEEE 24 Buses is presented to illustrate in detail the application of the proposed methodology.
Resumo:
This paper presents a methodology for distribution networks reconfiguration in outage presence in order to choose the reconfiguration that presents the lower power losses. The methodology is based on statistical failure and repair data of the distribution power system components and uses fuzzy-probabilistic modelling for system component outage parameters. Fuzzy membership functions of system component outage parameters are obtained by statistical records. A hybrid method of fuzzy set and Monte Carlo simulation based on the fuzzy-probabilistic models allows catching both randomness and fuzziness of component outage parameters. Once obtained the system states by Monte Carlo simulation, a logical programming algorithm is applied to get all possible reconfigurations for every system state. In order to evaluate the line flows and bus voltages and to identify if there is any overloading, and/or voltage violation a distribution power flow has been applied to select the feasible reconfiguration with lower power losses. To illustrate the application of the proposed methodology to a practical case, the paper includes a case study that considers a real distribution network.
Fuzzy Monte Carlo mathematical model for load curtailment minimization in transmission power systems
Resumo:
This paper presents a methodology which is based on statistical failure and repair data of the transmission power system components and uses fuzzyprobabilistic modeling for system component outage parameters. Using statistical records allows developing the fuzzy membership functions of system component outage parameters. The proposed hybrid method of fuzzy set and Monte Carlo simulation based on the fuzzy-probabilistic models allows catching both randomness and fuzziness of component outage parameters. A network contingency analysis to identify any overloading or voltage violation in the network is performed once obtained the system states by Monte Carlo simulation. This is followed by a remedial action algorithm, based on optimal power flow, to reschedule generations and alleviate constraint violations and, at the same time, to avoid any load curtailment, if possible, or, otherwise, to minimize the total load curtailment, for the states identified by the contingency analysis. In order to illustrate the application of the proposed methodology to a practical case, the paper will include a case study for the Reliability Test System (RTS) 1996 IEEE 24 BUS.
Resumo:
This paper present a methodology to choose the distribution networks reconfiguration that presents the lower power losses. The proposed methodology is based on statistical failure and repair data of the distribution power system components and uses fuzzy-probabilistic modeling for system component outage parameters. The proposed hybrid method using fuzzy sets and Monte Carlo simulation based on the fuzzyprobabilistic models allows catching both randomness and fuzziness of component outage parameters. A logic programming algorithm is applied, once obtained the system states by Monte Carlo Simulation, to get all possible reconfigurations for each system state. To evaluate the line flows and bus voltages and to identify if there is any overloading, and/or voltage violation an AC load flow has been applied to select the feasible reconfiguration with lower power losses. To illustrate the application of the proposed methodology, the paper includes a case study that considers a 115 buses distribution network.
Resumo:
Objective - To describe and validate the simulation of the basic features of GE Millennium MG gamma camera using the GATE Monte Carlo platform. Material and methods - Crystal size and thickness, parallel-hole collimation and a realistic energy acquisition window were simulated in the GATE platform. GATE results were compared to experimental data in the following imaging conditions: a point source of 99mTc at different positions during static imaging and tomographic acquisitions using two different energy windows. The accuracy between the events expected and detected by simulation was obtained with the Mann–Whitney–Wilcoxon test. Comparisons were made regarding the measurement of sensitivity and spatial resolution, static and tomographic. Simulated and experimental spatial resolutions for tomographic data were compared with the Kruskal–Wallis test to assess simulation accuracy for this parameter. Results - There was good agreement between simulated and experimental data. The number of decays expected when compared with the number of decays registered, showed small deviation (≤0.007%). The sensitivity comparisons between static acquisitions for different distances from source to collimator (1, 5, 10, 20, 30cm) with energy windows of 126–154 keV and 130–158 keV showed differences of 4.4%, 5.5%, 4.2%, 5.5%, 4.5% and 5.4%, 6.3%, 6.3%, 5.8%, 5.3%, respectively. For the tomographic acquisitions, the mean differences were 7.5% and 9.8% for the energy window 126–154 keV and 130–158 keV. Comparison of simulated and experimental spatial resolutions for tomographic data showed no statistically significant differences with 95% confidence interval. Conclusions - Adequate simulation of the system basic features using GATE Monte Carlo simulation platform was achieved and validated.
Resumo:
Purpose: The most recent Varian® micro multileaf collimator(MLC), the High Definition (HD120) MLC, was modeled using the BEAMNRCMonte Carlo code. This model was incorporated into a Varian medical linear accelerator, for a 6 MV beam, in static and dynamic mode. The model was validated by comparing simulated profiles with measurements. Methods: The Varian® Trilogy® (2300C/D) accelerator model was accurately implemented using the state-of-the-art Monte Carlo simulation program BEAMNRC and validated against off-axis and depth dose profiles measured using ionization chambers, by adjusting the energy and the full width at half maximum (FWHM) of the initial electron beam. The HD120 MLC was modeled by developing a new BEAMNRC component module (CM), designated HDMLC, adapting the available DYNVMLC CM and incorporating the specific characteristics of this new micro MLC. The leaf dimensions were provided by the manufacturer. The geometry was visualized by tracing particles through the CM and recording their position when a leaf boundary is crossed. The leaf material density and abutting air gap between leaves were adjusted in order to obtain a good agreement between the simulated leakage profiles and EBT2 film measurements performed in a solid water phantom. To validate the HDMLC implementation, additional MLC static patterns were also simulated and compared to additional measurements. Furthermore, the ability to simulate dynamic MLC fields was implemented in the HDMLC CM. The simulation results of these fields were compared with EBT2 film measurements performed in a solid water phantom. Results: Overall, the discrepancies, with and without MLC, between the opened field simulations and the measurements using ionization chambers in a water phantom, for the off-axis profiles are below 2% and in depth-dose profiles are below 2% after the maximum dose depth and below 4% in the build-up region. On the conditions of these simulations, this tungsten-based MLC has a density of 18.7 g cm− 3 and an overall leakage of about 1.1 ± 0.03%. The discrepancies between the film measured and simulated closed and blocked fields are below 2% and 8%, respectively. Other measurements were performed for alternated leaf patterns and the agreement is satisfactory (to within 4%). The dynamic mode for this MLC was implemented and the discrepancies between film measurements and simulations are within 4%. Conclusions: The Varian® Trilogy® (2300 C/D) linear accelerator including the HD120 MLC was successfully modeled and simulated using the Monte CarloBEAMNRC code by developing an independent CM, the HDMLC CM, either in static and dynamic modes.