Modelling complex systems for project planning - A semiotics motivated method

A large and complex IT project may involve multiple organizations and be constrained within a temporal period. An organization is a system comprising of people, activities, processes, information, resources and goals. Understanding and modelling such a project and its interrelationship with relevant organizations are essential for organizational project planning. This paper introduces the problem articulation method (PAM) as a semiotic method for organizational infrastructure modelling. PAM offers a suite of techniques, which enables the articulation of the business, technical and organizational requirements, delivering an infrastructural framework to support the organization. It works by eliciting and formalizing (e. g. processes, activities, relationships, responsibilities, communications, resources, agents, dependencies and constraints) and mapping these abstractions to represent the manifestation of the "actual" organization. Many analysts forgo organizational modelling methods and use localized ad hoc and point solutions, but this is not amenable for organizational infrastructures modelling. A case study of the infrared atmospheric sounding interferometer (IASI) will be used to demonstrate the applicability of PAM, and to examine its relevancy and significance in dealing with the innovation and changes in the organizations.

Using learning networks to understand complex systems: a case study of biological, geophysical and social research in the Amazon

Developing high-quality scientific research will be most effective if research communities with diverse skills and interests are able to share information and knowledge, are aware of the major challenges across disciplines, and can exploit economies of scale to provide robust answers and better inform policy. We evaluate opportunities and challenges facing the development of a more interactive research environment by developing an interdisciplinary synthesis of research on a single geographic region. We focus on the Amazon as it is of enormous regional and global environmental importance and faces a highly uncertain future. To take stock of existing knowledge and provide a framework for analysis we present a set of mini-reviews from fourteen different areas of research, encompassing taxonomy, biodiversity, biogeography, vegetation dynamics, landscape ecology, earth-atmosphere interactions, ecosystem processes, fire, deforestation dynamics, hydrology, hunting, conservation planning, livelihoods, and payments for ecosystem services. Each review highlights the current state of knowledge and identifies research priorities, including major challenges and opportunities. We show that while substantial progress is being made across many areas of scientific research, our understanding of specific issues is often dependent on knowledge from other disciplines. Accelerating the acquisition of reliable and contextualized knowledge about the fate of complex pristine and modified ecosystems is partly dependent on our ability to exploit economies of scale in shared resources and technical expertise, recognise and make explicit interconnections and feedbacks among sub-disciplines, increase the temporal and spatial scale of existing studies, and improve the dissemination of scientific findings to policy makers and society at large. Enhancing interaction among research efforts is vital if we are to make the most of limited funds and overcome the challenges posed by addressing large-scale interdisciplinary questions. Bringing together a diverse scientific community with a single geographic focus can help increase awareness of research questions both within and among disciplines, and reveal the opportunities that may exist for advancing acquisition of reliable knowledge. This approach could be useful for a variety of globally important scientific questions.

Information and knowledge management in complex systems

16th IFIP WG8.1 International Conference on Informatics and Semiotics in Organisations, ICISO 2015

Exploring smart grid possibilities: a complex systems modelling approach

Smart grid research has tended to be compartmentalised, with notable contributions from economics, electrical engineering and science and technology studies. However, there is an acknowledged and growing need for an integrated systems approach to the evaluation of smart grid initiatives. The capacity to simulate and explore smart grid possibilities on various scales is key to such an integrated approach but existing models – even if multidisciplinary – tend to have a limited focus. This paper describes an innovative and flexible framework that has been developed to facilitate the simulation of various smart grid scenarios and the interconnected social, technical and economic networks from a complex systems perspective. The architecture is described and related to realised examples of its use, both to model the electricity system as it is today and to model futures that have been envisioned in the literature. Potential future applications of the framework are explored, along with its utility as an analytic and decision support tool for smart grid stakeholders.

Formation and maintenance of complex systems

A complex system is often identified by the absence of a characteristic length, e.g. as in a fractal. A very large system subject to a fragmentation and/or aggregation dynamics passes through such complex configurations. We study statistically creation and maintenance of such configurations in space dimensions d = 1 to 5 and find that they are easily created (maintained) for small (large) d. An intermediate d such as d = 3 seems to be ideal for the creation and maintenance of complex systems. This has consequences in a statistical description of the universe.

The gradually truncated Lévy flight: Stochastic process for complex systems

Power-law distributions, i.e. Levy flights have been observed in various economical, biological, and physical systems in high-frequency regime. These distributions can be successfully explained via gradually truncated Levy flight (GTLF). In general, these systems converge to a Gaussian distribution in the low-frequency regime. In the present work, we develop a model for the physical basis for the cut-off length in GTLF and its variation with respect to the time interval between successive observations. We observe that GTLF automatically approach a Gaussian distribution in the low-frequency regime. We applied the present method to analyze time series in some physical and financial systems. The agreement between the experimental results and theoretical curves is excellent. The present method can be applied to analyze time series in a variety of fields, which in turn provide a basis for the development of further microscopic models for the system. © 2000 Elsevier Science B.V. All rights reserved.

Basketball from perspective of nonlinear complex systems

Doctoral program: Motor praxiology, physical education and sport training

Meta-models, environment and layers: agent-oriented engineering of complex systems

Traditional software engineering approaches and metaphors fall short when applied to areas of growing relevance such as electronic commerce, enterprise resource planning, and mobile computing: such areas, in fact, generally call for open architectures that may evolve dynamically over time so as to accommodate new components and meet new requirements. This is probably one of the main reasons that the agent metaphor and the agent-oriented paradigm are gaining momentum in these areas. This thesis deals with the engineering of complex software systems in terms of the agent paradigm. This paradigm is based on the notions of agent and systems of interacting agents as fundamental abstractions for designing, developing and managing at runtime typically distributed software systems. However, today the engineer often works with technologies that do not support the abstractions used in the design of the systems. For this reason the research on methodologies becomes the basic point in the scientific activity. Currently most agent-oriented methodologies are supported by small teams of academic researchers, and as a result, most of them are in an early stage and still in the first context of mostly \academic" approaches for agent-oriented systems development. Moreover, such methodologies are not well documented and very often defined and presented only by focusing on specific aspects of the methodology. The role played by meta- models becomes fundamental for comparing and evaluating the methodologies. In fact a meta-model specifies the concepts, rules and relationships used to define methodologies. Although it is possible to describe a methodology without an explicit meta-model, formalising the underpinning ideas of the methodology in question is valuable when checking its consistency or planning extensions or modifications. A good meta-model must address all the different aspects of a methodology, i.e. the process to be followed, the work products to be generated and those responsible for making all this happen. In turn, specifying the work products that must be developed implies dening the basic modelling building blocks from which they are built. As a building block, the agent abstraction alone is not enough to fully model all the aspects related to multi-agent systems in a natural way. In particular, different perspectives exist on the role that environment plays within agent systems: however, it is clear at least that all non-agent elements of a multi-agent system are typically considered to be part of the multi-agent system environment. The key role of environment as a first-class abstraction in the engineering of multi-agent system is today generally acknowledged in the multi-agent system community, so environment should be explicitly accounted for in the engineering of multi-agent system, working as a new design dimension for agent-oriented methodologies. At least two main ingredients shape the environment: environment abstractions - entities of the environment encapsulating some functions -, and topology abstractions - entities of environment that represent the (either logical or physical) spatial structure. In addition, the engineering of non-trivial multi-agent systems requires principles and mechanisms for supporting the management of the system representation complexity. These principles lead to the adoption of a multi-layered description, which could be used by designers to provide different levels of abstraction over multi-agent systems. The research in these fields has lead to the formulation of a new version of the SODA methodology where environment abstractions and layering principles are exploited for en- gineering multi-agent systems.

The port-Hamiltonian framework as a comprehensive approach to model and simulate complex systems

This thesis describes modelling tools and methods suited for complex systems (systems that typically are represented by a plurality of models). The basic idea is that all models representing the system should be linked by well-defined model operations in order to build a structured repository of information, a hierarchy of models. The port-Hamiltonian framework is a good candidate to solve this kind of problems as it supports the most important model operations natively. The thesis in particular addresses the problem of integrating distributed parameter systems in a model hierarchy, and shows two possible mechanisms to do that: a finite-element discretization in port-Hamiltonian form, and a structure-preserving model order reduction for discretized models obtainable from commercial finite-element packages.

Novel investigation methods in Computational Social Dynamics and Complex Systems

In this thesis the evolution of the techno-social systems analysis methods will be reported, through the explanation of the various research experience directly faced. The first case presented is a research based on data mining of a dataset of words association named Human Brain Cloud: validation will be faced and, also through a non-trivial modeling, a better understanding of language properties will be presented. Then, a real complex system experiment will be introduced: the WideNoise experiment in the context of the EveryAware european project. The project and the experiment course will be illustrated and data analysis will be displayed. Then the Experimental Tribe platform for social computation will be introduced . It has been conceived to help researchers in the implementation of web experiments, and aims also to catalyze the cumulative growth of experimental methodologies and the standardization of tools cited above. In the last part, three other research experience which already took place on the Experimental Tribe platform will be discussed in detail, from the design of the experiment to the analysis of the results and, eventually, to the modeling of the systems involved. The experiments are: CityRace, about the measurement of human traffic-facing strategies; laPENSOcosì, aiming to unveil the political opinion structure; AirProbe, implemented again in the EveryAware project framework, which consisted in monitoring air quality opinion shift of a community informed about local air pollution. At the end, the evolution of the technosocial systems investigation methods shall emerge together with the opportunities and the threats offered by this new scientific path.

Emotions and the Engineering of Adaptiveness in Complex Systems

A major challenge in the engineering of complex and critical systems is the management of change, both in the system and in its operational environment. Due to the growing of complexity in systems, new approaches on autonomy must be able to detect critical changes and avoid their progress towards undesirable states. We are searching for methods to build systems that can tune the adaptability protocols. New mechanisms that use system-wellness requirements to reduce the influence of the outer domain and transfer the control of uncertainly to the inner one. Under the view of cognitive systems, biological emotions suggests a strategy to configure value-based systems to use semantic self-representations of the state. A method inspired by emotion theories to causally connect to the inner domain of the system and its objectives of wellness, focusing on dynamically adapting the system to avoid the progress of critical states. This method shall endow the system with a transversal mechanism to monitor its inner processes, detecting critical states and managing its adaptivity in order to maintain the wellness goals. The paper describes the current vision produced by this work-in-progress.

Enhancing regression models for complex systems using evolutionary techniques for feature engineering

This work proposes an automatic methodology for modeling complex systems. Our methodology is based on the combination of Grammatical Evolution and classical regression to obtain an optimal set of features that take part of a linear and convex model. This technique provides both Feature Engineering and Symbolic Regression in order to infer accurate models with no effort or designer's expertise requirements. As advanced Cloud services are becoming mainstream, the contribution of data centers in the overall power consumption of modern cities is growing dramatically. These facilities consume from 10 to 100 times more power per square foot than typical office buildings. Modeling the power consumption for these infrastructures is crucial to anticipate the effects of aggressive optimization policies, but accurate and fast power modeling is a complex challenge for high-end servers not yet satisfied by analytical approaches. For this case study, our methodology minimizes error in power prediction. This work has been tested using real Cloud applications resulting on an average error in power estimation of 3.98%. Our work improves the possibilities of deriving Cloud energy efficient policies in Cloud data centers being applicable to other computing environments with similar characteristics.

Mathematical foundations for efficient structural controllability and observability analysis of complex systems

The relationship between structural controllability and observability of complex systems is studied. Algebraic and graph theoretic tools are combined to prove the extent of some controller/observer duality results. Two types of control design problems are addressed and some fundamental theoretical results are provided. In addition new algorithms are presented to compute optimal solutions for monitoring large scale real networks.

Emotions and the Engineering of Adaptiveness in Complex Systems

A major challenge in the engineering of complex and critical systems is the management of change, both in the system and in its operational environment. Due to the growing of complexity in systems, new approaches on autonomy must be able to detect critical changes and avoid their progress towards undesirable states. We are searching for methods to build systems that can tune the adaptability protocols. New mechanisms that use system-wellness requirements to reduce the influence of the outer domain and transfer the control of uncertainly to the inner one. Under the view of cognitive systems, biological emotions suggests a strategy to configure value-based systems to use semantic self-representations of the state. A method inspired by emotion theories to causally connect to the inner domain of the system and its objectives of wellness, focusing on dynamically adapting the system to avoid the progress of critical states. This method shall endow the system with a transversal mechanism to monitor its inner processes, detecting critical states and managing its adaptivity in order to maintain the wellness goals. The paper describes the current vision produced by this work-in-progress.

Neutrosophic and Modal Components of Relations in Complex Systems

Semiotic components in the relations of complex systems depend on the Subject. There are two main semiotic components: Neutrosophic and Modal. Modal components are alethical and deontical. In this paper the authors applied the theory of Neutrosophy and Modal Logic to Deontical Impure Systems.