The dynamics of asset prices and transaction activity in illiquid markets: the case of private commercial real estate

This paper investigates the relationship between capital flows, turnover and returns for the UK private real estate market. We examine a number of possible implication of capital flows and turnover on capital returns testing for evidence of a price pressure effect, ‘return chasing’ behaviour and information revelation. The main tool of analysis is a panel vector autoregressive (VAR) regression model in which institutional capital flows, turnover and returns are specified as endogenous variables in a two equation system in which we also control for macro-economic variables. Data on flows, turnover and returns are obtained for the 10 market segments covering the main UK commercial real estate sectors. Our results do not support the widely-held belief among practitioners that capital flows have a ‘price pressure’ effect. Although there is some evidence of return chasing behaviour, the short timescales involved suggest this finding may be due to delayed recording of flows relative to returns given the difficulties of market entry. We find a significant positive relationship between lagged turnover and contemporaneous capital returns, suggesting that asset turnover provides pricing information.

Evidence of cycles in European commercial real estate markets and some hypotheses

In this paper, we seek to achieve four objectives. First, we provide some contextual material concerning the performance of the UK real estate market relative to stocks and bonds over a long period. Second, we provide UK – and some non-UK European - evidence of the tendency for property demand, supply, prices and returns to fluctuate around their long term trends or averages. Third, we briefly examine some hypotheses which suggest institutional contributions to property cycles in European markets. Fourth, we suggest some reasons why the future may not be as cyclical as the past.

Commercial real estate return distributions: a review of literature and empirical evidence

This paper review the literature on the distribution of commercial real estate returns. There is growing evidence that the assumption of normality in returns is not safe. Distributions are found to be peaked, fat-tailed and, tentatively, skewed. There is some evidence of compound distributions and non-linearity. Public traded real estate assets (such as property company or REIT shares) behave in a fashion more similar to other common stocks. However, as in equity markets, it would be unwise to assume normality uncritically. Empirical evidence for UK real estate markets is obtained by applying distribution fitting routines to IPD Monthly Index data for the aggregate index and selected sub-sectors. It is clear that normality is rejected in most cases. It is often argued that observed differences in real estate returns are a measurement issue resulting from appraiser behaviour. However, unsmoothing the series does not assist in modelling returns. A large proportion of returns are close to zero. This would be characteristic of a thinly-traded market where new information arrives infrequently. Analysis of quarterly data suggests that, over longer trading periods, return distributions may conform more closely to those found in other asset markets. These results have implications for the formulation and implementation of a multi-asset portfolio allocation strategy.

Portfolio size and the reduction of dispersion: the case of the United Kingdom commercial real estate market

This paper investigates the potential benefits and limitations of equal and value-weighted diversification using as the example the UK institutional property market. To achieve this it uses the largest sample (392) of actual property returns that is currently available, over the period 1981 to 1996. To evaluate these issues two approaches are adopted; first, an analysis of the correlations within the sectors and regions and secondly simulations of property portfolios of increasing size constructed both naively and with value-weighting. Using these methods it is shown that the extent of possible risk reduction is limited because of the high positive correlations between assets in any portfolio, even when naively diversified. It is also shown that portfolios exhibit high levels of variability around the average risk, suggesting that previous work seriously understates the number of properties needed to achieve a satisfactory level of diversification. The results have implications for the development and maintenance of a property portfolio because they indicate that the achievable level of risk reduction depends upon the availability of assets, the weighting system used and the investor’s risk tolerance.

Rental depreciation and capital expenditure in the UK commercial real estate market, 1993–2009

This paper identifies the long-term rental depreciation rates for UK commercial properties and rates of capital expenditure incurred to offset depreciation over the same period. It starts by reviewing the economic depreciation literature and the rationale for adopting a longitudinal method of measurement, before discussing the data used and results. Data from 1993 to 2009 were sourced from Investment Property Databank and CB Richard Ellis real estate consultants. This is used to compare the change in values of new buildings in different locations with the change in values of individual properties in those locations. The analysis is conducted using observations on 742 assets drawn from all major segments of the commercial real estate market. Overall rental depreciation and capital expenditure rates are similar to those in other recent UK studies. Depreciation rates are 0.8% pa for offices, 0.5% pa for industrial properties and 0.3% pa for standard retail properties. These results hide interesting variations at a segment level, notably in retail where location often dominates value rather than the building. The majority of properties had little (if any) money spent on them over the last 16 years, but those subject to higher rates of expenditure were found to have lower depreciation rates.

Transaction based indices for the UK commercial real estate market: an exploration using IPD transaction data

The nature of private commercial real estate markets presents difficulties for monitoring market performance. Assets are heterogeneous and spatially dispersed, trading is infrequent and there is no central marketplace in which prices and cash flows of properties can be easily observed. Appraisal based indices represent one response to these issues. However, these have been criticised on a number of grounds: that they may understate volatility, lag turning points and be affected by client influence issues. Thus, this paper reports econometrically derived transaction based indices of the UK commercial real estate market using Investment Property Databank (IPD) data, comparing them with published appraisal based indices. The method is similar to that presented by Fisher, Geltner, and Pollakowski (2007) and used by Massachusett, Institute of Technology (MIT) on National Council of Real Estate Investment Fiduciaries (NCREIF) data, although it employs value rather than equal weighting. The results show stronger growth from the transaction based indices in the run up to the peak in the UK market in 2007. They also show that returns from these series are more volatile and less autocorrelated than their appraisal based counterparts, but, surprisingly, differences in turning points were not found. The conclusion then debates the applications and limitations these series have as measures of market performance.

The impact of information and communications technology on commercial real estate in the new economy

Purpose – This paper seeks to critically review the conceptual frameworks that have been developed for assessing the impact of information and communications technology (ICT) on real estate. Design/methodology/approach – The research is based on a critical review of existing literature and draws from examples of previous empirical research in the field. Findings – The paper suggests that a “socio-technical framework” is more appropriate to examine ICT impact in real estate than other “deterministic” frameworks. Therefore, ICT is an important part of the new economy, but must be seen in the context of a number of other social and economic factors. Research limitations/implications – The research is based on a qualitative assessment of existing frameworks, and by using examples from commercial real estate, assesses the extent to which a “socio-technical” framework can aid understanding of ICT impact. Practical implications – The paper is important in highlighting a number of the main issues in conceptualising ICT impact in real estate and also critically examines the emergence of a new economy in the information society within the general context of real estate. The paper also highlights research gaps in the field. Originality/value – The paper deconstructs the myths of the “death of real estate” and “productivity increase means jobs loss”, in relation to office real estate. Finally, it examines some of the ways in which ICT is impacting on real estate and suggests the most important components for a future research agenda in the field of ICT and real estate impact, and will be of value to property investors, facilities managers, developers, financiers, and others.

Commercial real estate and equity market bubbles: are they contagious to REITs?

This paper uses a regime-switching approach to determine whether prices in the US stock, direct real estate and indirect real estate markets are driven by the presence of speculative bubbles. The results show significant evidence of the existence of periodically partially collapsing speculative bubbles in all three markets. A multivariate bubble model is then developed and implemented to evaluate whether the stock and real estate bubbles spill over into REITs. The underlying stock market bubble is found to be a stronger influence on the securitised real estate market bubble than that of the property market. Furthermore, the findings suggest a transmission of speculative bubbles from the direct real estate to the stock market, although this link is not present for the returns themselves.

A critical review of methodologies for measuring rental depreciation applied to UK commercial real estate

Real estate depreciation continues to be a critical issue for investors and the appraisal profession in the UK in the 1990s. Depreciation-sensitive cash flow models have been developed, but there is a real need to develop further empirical methodologies to determine rental depreciation rates for input into these models. Although building quality has been found to be an important explanatory variable in depreciation it is very difficult to incorporate it into such models or to analyse it retrospectively. It is essential to examine previous depreciation research from real estate and economics in the USA and UK to understand the issues in constructing a valid and pragmatic way of calculating rental depreciation. Distinguishing between 'depreciation' and 'obsolescence' is important, and the pattern of depreciation in any study can be influenced by such factors as the type (longitudinal or crosssectional) and timing of the study, and the market state. Longitudinal studies can analyse change more directly than cross-sectional studies. Any methodology for calculating rental depreciation rate should be formulated in the context of such issues as 'censored sample bias', 'lemons' and 'filtering', which have been highlighted in key US literature from the field of economic depreciation. Property depreciation studies in the UK have tended to overlook this literature, however. Although data limitations and constraints reduce the ability of empirical property depreciation work in the UK to consider these issues fully, 'averaging' techniques and ordinary least squares (OLS) regression can both provide a consistent way of calculating rental depreciation rates within a 'cohort' framework.

Bias or rationality? The case of UK commercial real estate investment

Purpose – The purpose of this paper is to test the hypothesis that investment decision making in the UK direct property market does not conform to the assumption of economic rationality underpinning portfolio theory. Design/methodology/approach – The developing behavioural real estate paradigm is used to challenge the idea that investor “man” is able to perform with economic rationality, specifically with reference to the analysis of the spatial dispersion of the entire UK “investible stock” and “investible locations” against observed spatial patterns of institutional investment. Location quotients are derived, combining different data sets. Findings – Considerably greater variation in institutional property holdings is found across the UK than would be expected given the economic and stock characteristics of local areas. This appears to provide evidence of irrationality (in the strict traditional economic sense) in the behaviour of institutional investors, with possible herding underpinning levels of investment that cannot be explained otherwise. Research limitations/implications – Over time a lack of distinction has developed between the cause and effect of comparatively low levels of development and institutional property investment across the regions. A critical examination of decision making and behaviour in practice could break this cycle, and could in turn promote regional economic growth. Originality/value – The entire “population” of observations is used to demonstrate the relationships between economic theory and investor performance exploring, for the first time, stock and local area characteristics.

Broker use and the cost of liquidity in commercial real estate investment

Purpose – Commercial real estate is a highly specific asset: heterogeneous, indivisible and with less information transparency than most other commonly held investment assets. These attributes encourage the use of intermediaries during asset acquisition and disposal. However, there are few attempts to explain the use of different brokerage models (with differing costs) in different markets. This study aims to address this gap. Design/methodology/approach – The study analyses 9,338 real estate transactions in London and New York City from 2001 to 2011. Data are provided by Real Capital Analytics and cover over $450 billion of investments in this period. Brokerage trends in the two cities are compared and probit regressions are used to test whether the decision to transact with broker representation varies with investor or asset characteristics. Findings – Results indicate greater use of brokerage in London, especially by purchasers. This persists when data are disaggregated by sector, time or investor type, pointing to the role of local market culture and institutions in shaping brokerage models and transaction costs. Within each city, the nature of the investors involved seems to be a more significant influence on broker use than the characteristics of the assets being traded. Originality/value – Brokerage costs are the single largest non-tax charge to an investor when trading commercial real estate, yet there is little research in this area. This study examines the role of brokers and provides empirical evidence on factors that influence the use and mode of brokerage in two major investment destinations.

Does connectivity add value to commercial real estate? The case of managed and conventional offices

This research is a preliminary study which examines the impact of connectivity on value in the managed office and conventional office sectors. The research is based on an extensive literature review, online survey and case studies carried out during 2005. The research shows, for the first time in the UK, how connectivity can increase value in office buildings, and how technology is priced in the market place.

Threshold autoregressive and Markov switching models: an application to commercial real estate

Although financial theory rests heavily upon the assumption that asset returns are normally distributed, value indices of commercial real estate display significant departures from normality. In this paper, we apply and compare the properties of two recently proposed regime switching models for value indices of commercial real estate in the US and the UK, both of which relax the assumption that observations are drawn from a single distribution with constant mean and variance. Statistical tests of the models' specification indicate that the Markov switching model is better able to capture the non-stationary features of the data than the threshold autoregressive model, although both represent superior descriptions of the data than the models that allow for only one state. Our results have several implications for theoretical models and empirical research in finance.

The impact of cross-border real estate investment on commercial real estate capitalisation rates

This study examines the impact of foreign real estate investment on the US office market capitalization rates. The geographic unit of analysis is MSA and the time period is 2001-2013. Drawing upon a database of commercial real estate transactions provided by Real Capital Analytics, we model the determinants of market capitalization rates with a particular focus on the significance of the proportion of market transactions involving foreign investors. We have employed several econometric techniques to explore the data, potential estimation biases, and test robustness of the results. The results suggest statistically significant effects of foreign investment across 38 US metro areas. It is estimated that, all else equal, a 100 basis points increase in foreign share of total investment in a US metropolitan office market causes about an 8 basis points decrease in the market cap rate.