914 resultados para Combination of short term inflation forecast models
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The computations performed by the brain ultimately rely on the functional connectivity between neurons embedded in complex networks. It is well known that the neuronal connections, the synapses, are plastic, i.e. the contribution of each presynaptic neuron to the firing of a postsynaptic neuron can be independently adjusted. The modulation of effective synaptic strength can occur on time scales that range from tens or hundreds of milliseconds, to tens of minutes or hours, to days, and may involve pre- and/or post-synaptic modifications. The collection of these mechanisms is generally believed to underlie learning and memory and, hence, it is fundamental to understand their consequences in the behavior of neurons.(...)
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The objectives of this study were to compare how different frailty measures (Frailty Phenotype/FP, Groningen Frailty Indicator/GFI and Tilburg Frailty Indicator/TFI) predict short-term adverse outcomes. Secondarily, adopting a multidimensional approach to frailty (integral conceptual model–TFI), this study aims to compare how physical, psychological and social frailty predict the outcomes. A longitudinal study was carried out with 95 community-dwelling elderly. Participants were assessed at baseline for frailty, determinants of frailty, and adverse outcomes (healthcare utilization, quality of life, disability in basic and instrumental activities of daily living/ADL and IADL). Ten months later the outcomes were assessed again. Frailty was associated with specific healthcare utilization indicators: the FP with a greater utilization of informal care; GFI with an increased contact with healthcare professionals; and TFI with a higher amount of contacts with a general practitioner. After controlling for the effect of life-course determinants, comorbidity and adverse outcome at baseline, GFI predicted IADL disability and TFI predicted quality of life. The effect of the FP on the outcomes was not significant, when compared with the other measures. However, when comparing TFI’s domains, the physical domain was the most significant predictor of the outcomes, even explaining part of the variance of ADL disability. Frailty at baseline was associated with adverse outcomes at follow-up. However, the relationship of each frailty measure (FP, GFI and TFI) with the outcomes was different. In spite of the role of psychological frailty, TFI’s physical domain was the determinant factor for predicting disability and most of the quality of life.
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In this paper, we formulate the electricity retailers’ short-term decision-making problem in a liberalized retail market as a multi-objective optimization model. Retailers with light physical assets, such as generation and storage units in the distribution network, are considered. Following advances in smart grid technologies, electricity retailers are becoming able to employ incentive-based demand response (DR) programs in addition to their physical assets to effectively manage the risks of market price and load variations. In this model, the DR scheduling is performed simultaneously with the dispatch of generation and storage units. The ultimate goal is to find the optimal values of the hourly financial incentives offered to the end-users. The proposed model considers the capacity obligations imposed on retailers by the grid operator. The profit seeking retailer also has the objective to minimize the peak demand to avoid the high capacity charges in form of grid tariffs or penalties. The non-dominated sorting genetic algorithm II (NSGA-II) is used to solve the multi-objective problem. It is a fast and elitist multi-objective evolutionary algorithm. A case study is solved to illustrate the efficient performance of the proposed methodology. Simulation results show the effectiveness of the model for designing the incentive-based DR programs and indicate the efficiency of NSGA-II in solving the retailers’ multi-objective problem.
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Background:Heart transplantation is considered the gold standard therapy for the advanced heart failure, but donor shortage, especially in pediatric patients, is the main limitation for this procedure, so most sick patients die while waiting for the procedure.Objective:To evaluate the use of short-term circulatory support as a bridge to transplantation in end-stage cardiomyopathy.Methods:Retrospective clinical study. Between January 2011 and December 2013, 40 patients with cardiomyopathy were admitted in our Pediatric Intensive Care Unit, with a mean age of 4.5 years. Twenty patients evolved during hospitalization with clinical deterioration and were classified as Intermacs 1 and 2. One patient died within 24 hours and 19 could be stabilized and were listed. They were divided into 2 groups: A, clinical support alone and B, implantation of short-term circulatory support as bridge to transplantation additionally to clinical therapy.Results:We used short-term mechanical circulatory support as a bridge to transplantation in 9. In group A (n=10), eight died waiting and 2 patients (20%) were transplanted, but none was discharged. In group B (n=9), 6 patients (66.7%) were transplanted and three were discharged.The mean support time was 21,8 days (6 to 984h). The mean transplant waiting list time was 33,8 days. Renal failure and sepsis were the main complication and causeof death in group A while neurologic complications were more prevalent en group B.Conclusion:Mechanical circulatory support increases survival on the pediatric heart transplantation waiting list in patients classified as Intermacs 1 and 2.
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BACKGROUND: Highway maintenance workers are constantly and simultaneously exposed to traffic-related particle and noise emissions, and both have been linked to increased cardiovascular morbidity and mortality in population-based epidemiology studies. OBJECTIVES: We aimed to investigate short-term health effects related to particle and noise exposure. METHODS: We monitored 18 maintenance workers, during as many as five 24-hour periods from a total of 50 observation days. We measured their exposure to fine particulate matter (PM2.5), ultrafine particles, noise, and the cardiopulmonary health endpoints: blood pressure, pro-inflammatory and pro-thrombotic markers in the blood, lung function and fractional exhaled nitric oxide (FeNO) measured approximately 15 hours post-work. Heart rate variability was assessed during a sleep period approximately 10 hours post-work. RESULTS: PM2.5 exposure was significantly associated with C-reactive protein and serum amyloid A, and negatively associated with tumor necrosis factor α. None of the particle metrics were significantly associated with von Willebrand factor or tissue factor expression. PM2.5 and work noise were associated with markers of increased heart rate variability, and with increased HF and LF power. Systolic and diastolic blood pressure on the following morning were significantly associated with noise exposure after work, and non-significantly associated with PM2.5. We observed no significant associations between any of the exposures and lung function or FeNO. CONCLUSIONS: Our findings suggest that exposure to particles and noise during highway maintenance work might pose a cardiovascular health risk. Actions to reduce these exposures could lead to better health for this population of workers.
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INTRODUCTION: Although long-term video-EEG monitoring (LVEM) is routinely used to investigate paroxysmal events, short-term video-EEG monitoring (SVEM) lasting <24 h is increasingly recognized as a cost-effective tool. Since, however, relatively few studies addressed the yield of SVEM among different diagnostic groups, we undertook the present study to investigate this aspect. METHODS: We retrospectively analyzed 226 consecutive SVEM recordings over 6 years. All patients were referred because routine EEGs were inconclusive. Patients were classified into 3 suspected diagnostic groups: (1) group with epileptic seizures, (2) group with psychogenic nonepileptic seizures (PNESs), and (3) group with other or undetermined diagnoses. We assessed recording lengths, interictal epileptiform discharges, epileptic seizures, PNESs, and the definitive diagnoses obtained after SVEM. RESULTS: The mean age was 34 (±18.7) years, and the median recording length was 18.6 h. Among the 226 patients, 127 referred for suspected epilepsy - 73 had a diagnosis of epilepsy, none had a diagnosis of PNESs, and 54 had other or undetermined diagnoses post-SVEM. Of the 24 patients with pre-SVEM suspected PNESs, 1 had epilepsy, 12 had PNESs, and 11 had other or undetermined diagnoses. Of the 75 patients with other diagnoses pre-SVEM, 17 had epilepsy, 11 had PNESs, and 47 had other or undetermined diagnoses. After SVEM, 15 patients had definite diagnoses other than epilepsy or PNESs, while in 96 patients, diagnosis remained unclear. Overall, a definitive diagnosis could be reached in 129/226 (57%) patients. CONCLUSIONS: This study demonstrates that in nearly 3/5 patients without a definitive diagnosis after routine EEG, SVEM allowed us to reach a diagnosis. This procedure should be encouraged in this setting, given its time-effectiveness compared with LVEM.
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Background: Alliance evolutions, i.e. ruptures and resolutions over the course of psychotherapy, have been shown to be important descriptive features in different forms of psychotherapy, and in particular in psychodynamic psychotherapy. This case study of a client presenting elements of adjustment disorder undergoing short-term dynamic psychotherapy is drawn from a systematic naturalistic study and aims at illustrating, on a session-by-session-level, the processes of alliance ruptures and resolutions, by comparing both the client's and the therapist's perspectives. Method: Two episodes of alliance evolution were more fully studied, in relation to the evolution of transference, as well as the client's defensive functioning and core conflictual theme. These concepts were measured by means of valid, reliable observer-rater methods, based on session transcripts: the Defense Mechanisms Rating Scales (DMRS) for defensive functioning and the Core Conflictual Relationship Theme (CCRT) for the conflicts. Alliance was measured after each session using the Helping Alliance questionnaire (HAq-II). Results: The results indicated that these episodes of alliance rupture and resolutions may be understood as key moments of the whole therapeutic process reflecting the client's main relationship stakes. Illustrations are provided based on the client's in-session processes and related to the alliance development over the course of the entire therapy.
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It is currently suspected that sugar overconsumption, and more specifically fructose, may promote the development of obesity and of several cardio-metabolic disorders. However, environmental factors, such as fish oil and dietary proteins, may prevent some deleterious effects of fructose. The aim of this thesis was to identify potential environmental factors that may modulate the metabolic effects of fructose. The first study was designed to evaluate the impact of endurance exercise in healthy young men fed a high-fructose, isocaloric diet. Fructose-induced effects on lipid profile were totally prevented by endurance exercise and may be explained by an enhanced clearance of TRL-TG and the inhibition of de novo lipogenesis. As energy intake was adjusted to energy requirement, we can conclude that exercise acts on fructose metabolism independently of energy imbalance. The second study aimed at determining whether coffee and more specifically chlorogenic acid consumption may prevent fructose-induced intrahepatic lipids accumulation, hypertriglyceridemia and hepatic insulin resistance, through a stimulation of lipid oxidation. Coffee did not prevent the fructose-induced increase in IHCL or plasma TG. Interestingly, the three coffees tested prevented the decrease in hepatic insulin sensitivity, independently of their content in caffeine or chlorogenic acid. Finally, in the third study, we evaluated the effect of essential amino acid supplementation on the increase of hepatic lipids induced by a high-fructose diet. This intervention slightly decreased IHCL concentration. The exact mechanisms remain unidentified but may involve an increased secretion of VLDL-TG. In conclusion, the environmental factors evaluated allow to prevent some of the deleterious effects of fructose and suggest that recommendations on fructose consumption should also take into account environmental factors.
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Short-term dynamic psychotherapy (STDP) has rarely been investigated with regard to its underlying mechanisms of change, even if psychoanalytic theory informs us about several potential putative mechanisms of change in patients. Change in overall defensive functioning is one. In this study, we explored the role of overall defensive functioning, by comparing it on the process level with the neighbouring concept of overall coping functioning. A total of N=32 patients, mainly presenting adjustment disorder, were included in the study. The patients underwent STDP up to 40 sessions; three sessions per psychotherapy were transcribed and analyzed by using two observer-rating scales: Defense Mechanism Rating Scales (Perry, 1990) and Coping Action Patterns (Perry, Drapeau, Dunkley, & Blake, 2005). Hierarchical linear modeling was applied to model the change over the course of therapy and relate it to outcome. Results suggest that STDP has an effect on the target variable of overall defensive functioning, which was absent for overall coping functioning. Links with outcome confirm the importance of the effect. These results are discussed from methodological and clinical viewpoints.
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The shape of alliance processes over the course of psychotherapy has already been studied in several process-outcome studies on very brief psychotherapy. The present study applies the shape-of-change methodology to short-term dynamic psychotherapies and complements this method with hierarchical linear modeling. A total of 50 psychotherapies of up to 40 sessions were included. Alliance was measured at the end of each session. The results indicate that a linear progression model is most adequate. Three main patterns were found: stable, linear, and quadratic growth. The linear growth pattern, along with the slope parameter, was related to treatment outcome. This study sheds additional light on alliance process research, underscores the importance of linear alliance progression for outcome, and also fosters a better understanding of its limitations.
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Objective Termination in group psychotherapy is an essential phase of the psychotherapeutic process, yet its clinical determinants remain largely unknown, especially in elderly patients. The aim of this study was to assess how patients' personality traits influence their way of leaving a short-term psychotherapy group as well as a larger therapeutic community program. <p>Method Personality traits were assessed with the NEO Five-Factor Inventory in 24 elderly depressed outpatients. Patients' terminations from the group as well as from the community were ranked into four classes according to their appropriateness (completeness of experience and ability to deal with feelings of separation). Results Neuroticism was not related to the quality of termination. In contrast, agreeableness and openness to experience were strongly associated with successful termination. Conscientiousness and extraversion may have a differential impact depending on the type of group (group psychotherapy versus therapeutic community). Conclusion Personality traits may be important clinical determinants of the quality of termination process in both group psychotherapy and therapeutic community settings for elderly depressed patients.
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Natural killer (NK) cellsexpress receptors specific for class I major histocompatibility complex (MHC) molecules. In the mouse, the class I specific receptors identified to date belong to the polymorphic Ly49 receptor family. Engagement of Ly49 receptors with their respective MHC ligands results in negative regulation of NK cell effector functions, consistent with a critical role of these receptors in "missing self" recognition. The Ly49 receptors analyzed so far are clonally distributed such that multiple distinct Ly49 receptors can be expressed by individual NK cells (for review see refs. 1-3). The finding that most NK cells that express the Ly49A receptor do so from a single Ly49A allele (whereby expression can occur from the maternal or the paternal chromosome) may thus reflect a putative receptor distribution process that restricts the number of Ly49 receptors expressed in a single NK cell (3-5).
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Ex vivo ELISPOT and multimer staining are well-established tests for the assessment of antigen-specific T cells. Many laboratories are now using a period of in vitro stimulation (IVS) to enhance detection. Here, we report the findings of a multi-centre panel organised by the Association for Cancer Immunotherapy Immunoguiding Program to investigate the impact of IVS protocols on the detection of antigen-specific T cells of varying ex vivo frequency. Five centres performed ELISPOT and multimer staining on centrally prepared PBMCs from 3 donors, both ex vivo and following IVS. A harmonised IVS protocol was designed based on the best-performing protocol(s), which was then evaluated in a second phase on 2 donors by 6 centres. All centres were able to reliably detect antigen-specific T cells of high/intermediate frequency both ex vivo (Phase I) and post-IVS (Phase I and II). The highest frequencies of antigen-specific T cells ex vivo were mirrored in the frequencies following IVS and in the detection rates. However, antigen-specific T cells of a low/undetectable frequency ex vivo were not reproducibly detected post-IVS. Harmonisation of the IVS protocol reduced the inter-laboratory variation observed for ELISPOT and multimer analyses by approximately 20 %. We further demonstrate that results from ELISPOT and multimer staining correlated after (P < 0.0001 and R (2) = 0.5113), but not before IVS. In summary, IVS was shown to be a reproducible method that benefitted from method harmonisation.