886 resultados para Cloud Fraction


Relevância:

70.00% 70.00%

Publicador:

Resumo:

The high complexity of cloud parameterizations now held in models puts more pressure on observational studies to provide useful means to evaluate them. One approach to the problem put forth in the modelling community is to evaluate under what atmospheric conditions the parameterizations fail to simulate the cloud properties and under what conditions they do a good job. It is the ambition of this paper to characterize the variability of the statistical properties of tropical ice clouds in different tropical "regimes" recently identified in the literature to aid the development of better process-oriented parameterizations in models. For this purpose, the statistical properties of non-precipitating tropical ice clouds over Darwin, Australia are characterized using ground-based radar-lidar observations from the Atmospheric Radiation Measurement (ARM) Program. The ice cloud properties analysed are the frequency of ice cloud occurrence, the morphological properties (cloud top height and thickness), and the microphysical and radiative properties (ice water content, visible extinction, effective radius, and total concentration). The variability of these tropical ice cloud properties is then studied as a function of the large-scale cloud regimes derived from the International Satellite Cloud Climatology Project (ISCCP), the amplitude and phase of the Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO), and the large-scale atmospheric regime as derived from a long-term record of radiosonde observations over Darwin. The vertical variability of ice cloud occurrence and microphysical properties is largest in all regimes (1.5 order of magnitude for ice water content and extinction, a factor 3 in effective radius, and three orders of magnitude in concentration, typically). 98 % of ice clouds in our dataset are characterized by either a small cloud fraction (smaller than 0.3) or a very large cloud fraction (larger than 0.9). In the ice part of the troposphere three distinct layers characterized by different statistically-dominant microphysical processes are identified. The variability of the ice cloud properties as a function of the large-scale atmospheric regime, cloud regime, and MJO phase is large, producing mean differences of up to a factor 8 in the frequency of ice cloud occurrence between large-scale atmospheric regimes and mean differences of a factor 2 typically in all microphysical properties. Finally, the diurnal cycle of the frequency of occurrence of ice clouds is also very different between regimes and MJO phases, with diurnal amplitudes of the vertically-integrated frequency of ice cloud occurrence ranging from as low as 0.2 (weak diurnal amplitude) to values in excess of 2.0 (very large diurnal amplitude). Modellers should now use these results to check if their model cloud parameterizations are capable of translating a given atmospheric forcing into the correct statistical ice cloud properties.

Relevância:

70.00% 70.00%

Publicador:

Resumo:

Ice cloud representation in general circulation models remains a challenging task, due to the lack of accurate observations and the complexity of microphysical processes. In this article, we evaluate the ice water content (IWC) and ice cloud fraction statistical distributions from the numerical weather prediction models of the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) and the UK Met Office, exploiting the synergy between the CloudSat radar and CALIPSO lidar. Using the last three weeks of July 2006, we analyse the global ice cloud occurrence as a function of temperature and latitude and show that the models capture the main geographical and temperature-dependent distributions, but overestimate the ice cloud occurrence in the Tropics in the temperature range from −60 °C to −20 °C and in the Antarctic for temperatures higher than −20 °C, but underestimate ice cloud occurrence at very low temperatures. A global statistical comparison of the occurrence of grid-box mean IWC at different temperatures shows that both the mean and range of IWC increases with increasing temperature. Globally, the models capture most of the IWC variability in the temperature range between −60 °C and −5 °C, and also reproduce the observed latitudinal dependencies in the IWC distribution due to different meteorological regimes. Two versions of the ECMWF model are assessed. The recent operational version with a diagnostic representation of precipitating snow and mixed-phase ice cloud fails to represent the IWC distribution in the −20 °C to 0 °C range, but a new version with prognostic variables for liquid water, ice and snow is much closer to the observed distribution. The comparison of models and observations provides a much-needed analysis of the vertical distribution of IWC across the globe, highlighting the ability of the models to reproduce much of the observed variability as well as the deficiencies where further improvements are required.

Relevância:

70.00% 70.00%

Publicador:

Resumo:

There is large diversity in simulated aerosol forcing among models that participated in the fifth Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5), particularly related to aerosol interactions with clouds. Here we use the reported model data and fitted aerosol-cloud relations to separate the main sources of inter-model diversity in the magnitude of the cloud albedo effect. There is large diversity in the global load and spatial distribution of sulfate aerosol, as well as in global-mean cloud-top effective radius. The use of different parameterizations of aerosol-cloud interactions makes the largest contribution to diversity in modeled radiative forcing (up to -39%, +48% about the mean estimate). Uncertainty in pre-industrial sulfate load also makes a substantial contribution (-15%, +61% about the mean estimate), with smaller contributions from inter-model differences in the historical change in sulfate load and in mean cloud fraction.

Relevância:

70.00% 70.00%

Publicador:

Resumo:

Ground-based remote-sensing observations from Atmospheric Radiation Measurement (ARM) and Cloud-Net sites are used to evaluate the clouds predicted by a weather forecasting and climate model. By evaluating the cloud predictions using separate measures for the errors in frequency of occurrence, amount when present, and timing, we provide a detailed assessment of the model performance, which is relevant to weather and climate time-scales. Importantly, this methodology will be of great use when attempting to develop a cloud parametrization scheme, as it provides a clearer picture of the current deficiencies in the predicted clouds. Using the Met Office Unified Model, it is shown that when cloud fractions produced by a diagnostic and a prognostic cloud scheme are compared, the prognostic cloud scheme shows improvements to the biases in frequency of occurrence of low, medium and high cloud and to the frequency distributions of cloud amount when cloud is present. The mean cloud profiles are generally improved, although it is shown that in some cases the diagnostic scheme produced misleadingly good mean profiles as a result of compensating errors in frequency of occurrence and amount when present. Some biases remain when using the prognostic scheme, notably the underprediction of mean ice cloud fraction due to the amount when present being too low, and the overprediction of mean liquid cloud fraction due to the frequency of occurrence being too high.

Relevância:

70.00% 70.00%

Publicador:

Resumo:

The subgrid-scale spatial variability in cloud water content can be described by a parameter f called the fractional standard deviation. This is equal to the standard deviation of the cloud water content divided by the mean. This parameter is an input to schemes that calculate the impact of subgrid-scale cloud inhomogeneity on gridbox-mean radiative fluxes and microphysical process rates. A new regime-dependent parametrization of the spatial variability of cloud water content is derived from CloudSat observations of ice clouds. In addition to the dependencies on horizontal and vertical resolution and cloud fraction included in previous parametrizations, the new parametrization includes an explicit dependence on cloud type. The new parametrization is then implemented in the Global Atmosphere 6 (GA6) configuration of the Met Office Unified Model and used to model the effects of subgrid variability of both ice and liquid water content on radiative fluxes and autoconversion and accretion rates in three 20-year atmosphere-only climate simulations. These simulations show the impact of the new regime-dependent parametrization on diagnostic radiation calculations, interactive radiation calculations and both interactive radiation calculations and in a new warm microphysics scheme. The control simulation uses a globally constant f value of 0.75 to model the effect of cloud water content variability on radiative fluxes. The use of the new regime-dependent parametrization in the model results in a global mean which is higher than the control's fixed value and a global distribution of f which is closer to CloudSat observations. When the new regime-dependent parametrization is used in radiative transfer calculations only, the magnitudes of short-wave and long-wave top of atmosphere cloud radiative forcing are reduced, increasing the existing global mean biases in the control. When also applied in a new warm microphysics scheme, the short-wave global mean bias is reduced.

Relevância:

70.00% 70.00%

Publicador:

Resumo:

Large fine mode-dominated aerosols (submicron radius) in size distributions retrieved from the Aerosol Robotic Network (AERONET) have been observed after fog or low-altitude cloud dissipation events. These column-integrated size distributions have been obtained at several sites in many regions of the world, typically after evaporation of low-altitude cloud such as stratocumulus or fog. Retrievals with cloud-processed aerosol are sometimes bimodal in the accumulation mode with the larger-size mode often similar to 0.4-0.5 mu m radius (volume distribution); the smaller mode, typically similar to 0.12 to similar to 0.20 mu m, may be interstitial aerosol that were not modified by incorporation in droplets and/or aerosol that are less hygroscopic in nature. Bimodal accumulation mode size distributions have often been observed from in situ measurements of aerosols that have interacted with clouds, and AERONET size distribution retrievals made after dissipation of cloud or fog are in good agreement with particle sizes measured by in situ techniques for cloud-processed aerosols. Aerosols of this type and large size range (in lower concentrations) may also be formed by cloud processing in partly cloudy conditions and may contribute to the "shoulder" of larger-size particles in the accumulation mode retrievals, especially in regions where sulfate and other soluble aerosol are a significant component of the total aerosol composition. Observed trends of increasing aerosol optical depth (AOD) as fine mode radius increased suggests higher AOD in the near-cloud environment and higher overall AOD than typically obtained from remote sensing owing to bias toward sampling at low cloud fraction.

Relevância:

60.00% 60.00%

Publicador:

Resumo:

The radiation budget simulated by the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) 40-year reanalysis (ERA40) is evaluated for the period 1979–2001 using independent satellite data and additional model data. This provides information on the quality of the radiation products and indirect evaluation of other aspects of the climate produced by ERA40. The climatology of clear-sky outgoing longwave radiation (OLR) is well captured by ERA40. Underestimations of about 10 W m−2 in clear-sky OLR over tropical convective regions by ERA40 compared to satellite data are substantially reduced when the satellite sampling is taken into account. The climatology of column-integrated water vapor is well simulated by ERA40 compared to satellite data over the ocean, indicating that the simulation of downward clear-sky longwave fluxes at the surface is likely to be good. Clear-sky absorbed solar radiation (ASR) and clear-sky OLR are overestimated by ERA40 over north Africa and high-latitude land regions. The observed interannual changes in low-latitude means are not well reproduced. Using ERA40 to analyze trends and climate feedbacks globally is therefore not recommended. The all-sky radiation budget is poorly simulated by ERA40. OLR is overestimated by around 10 W m−2 over much of the globe. ASR is underestimated by around 30 W m−2 over tropical ocean regions. Away from marine stratocumulus regions, where cloud fraction is underestimated by ERA40, the poor radiation simulation by ERA40 appears to be related to inaccurate radiative properties of cloud rather than inaccurate cloud distributions.

Relevância:

60.00% 60.00%

Publicador:

Resumo:

Recent research outlined by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) highlights the response of marine boundary layer (MBL) clouds to warming associated with increasing greenhouse gases as a major contributor to uncertainties in model projections of climate change. Understanding how MBL clouds respond to increasing temperatures is hampered by the relative scarcity of marine surface observations and the difficulty of retrieving accurate parameters remotely from satellites. In this study we combine data from surface observations with that from the International Satellite Cloud Climatology Project (ISCCP), CloudSat and CALIPSO, with a view to investigating the spatial distribution and variations in MBL cloud fraction and cloud liquid water path (LWP). These results are then compared with the treatment of MBL clouds in the UK Met Office HadGEM models. Future work will assess how variations in LWP impact the top of atmosphere radiative energy balance using data from the Geostationary Earth Radiation Budget (GERB), in order to quantify the response of MBL clouds on interannual timescales to a changing climate

Relevância:

60.00% 60.00%

Publicador:

Resumo:

The ability of four operational weather forecast models [ECMWF, Action de Recherche Petite Echelle Grande Echelle model (ARPEGE), Regional Atmospheric Climate Model (RACMO), and Met Office] to generate a cloud at the right location and time (the cloud frequency of occurrence) is assessed in the present paper using a two-year time series of observations collected by profiling ground-based active remote sensors (cloud radar and lidar) located at three different sites in western Europe (Cabauw. Netherlands; Chilbolton, United Kingdom; and Palaiseau, France). Particular attention is given to potential biases that may arise from instrumentation differences (especially sensitivity) from one site to another and intermittent sampling. In a second step the statistical properties of the cloud variables involved in most advanced cloud schemes of numerical weather forecast models (ice water content and cloud fraction) are characterized and compared with their counterparts in the models. The two years of observations are first considered as a whole in order to evaluate the accuracy of the statistical representation of the cloud variables in each model. It is shown that all models tend to produce too many high-level clouds, with too-high cloud fraction and ice water content. The midlevel and low-level cloud occurrence is also generally overestimated, with too-low cloud fraction but a correct ice water content. The dataset is then divided into seasons to evaluate the potential of the models to generate different cloud situations in response to different large-scale forcings. Strong variations in cloud occurrence are found in the observations from one season to the same season the following year as well as in the seasonal cycle. Overall, the model biases observed using the whole dataset are still found at seasonal scale, but the models generally manage to well reproduce the observed seasonal variations in cloud occurrence. Overall, models do not generate the same cloud fraction distributions and these distributions do not agree with the observations. Another general conclusion is that the use of continuous ground-based radar and lidar observations is definitely a powerful tool for evaluating model cloud schemes and for a responsive assessment of the benefit achieved by changing or tuning a model cloud

Relevância:

60.00% 60.00%

Publicador:

Resumo:

In the present paper we characterize the statistical properties of non-precipitating tropical ice clouds (deep ice anvils resulting from deep convection and cirrus clouds) over Niamey, Niger, West Africa, and Darwin, northern Australia, using ground-based radar–lidar observations from the Atmospheric Radiation Measurement (ARM) programme. The ice cloud properties analysed in this paper are the frequency of ice cloud occurrence, cloud fraction, the morphological properties (cloud-top height, base height, and thickness), the microphysical and radiative properties (ice water content, visible extinction, effective radius, terminal fall speed, and concentration), and the internal cloud dynamics (in-cloud vertical air velocity). The main highlight of the paper is that it characterizes for the first time the probability density functions of the tropical ice cloud properties, their vertical variability and their diurnal variability at the same time. This is particularly important over West Africa, since the ARM deployment in Niamey provides the first vertically resolved observations of non-precipitating ice clouds in this crucial area in terms of redistribution of water and energy in the troposphere. The comparison between the two sites also provides an additional observational basis for the evaluation of the parametrization of clouds in large-scale models, which should be able to reproduce both the statistical properties at each site and the differences between the two sites. The frequency of ice cloud occurrence is found to be much larger over Darwin when compared to Niamey, and with a much larger diurnal variability, which is well correlated with the diurnal cycle of deep convective activity. The diurnal cycle of the ice cloud occurrence over Niamey is also much less correlated with that of deep convective activity than over Darwin, probably owing to the fact that Niamey is further away from the deep convective sources of the region. The frequency distributions of cloud fraction are strongly bimodal and broadly similar over the two sites, with a predominance of clouds characterized either by a very small cloud fraction (less than 0.3) or a very large cloud fraction (larger than 0.9). The ice clouds over Darwin are also much thicker (by 1 km or more statistically) and are characterized by a much larger diurnal variability than ice clouds over Niamey. Ice clouds over Niamey are also characterized by smaller particle sizes and fall speeds but in much larger concentrations, thereby carrying more ice water and producing more visible extinction than the ice clouds over Darwin. It is also found that there is a much larger occurrence of downward in-cloud air motions less than 1 m s−1 over Darwin, which together with the larger fall speeds retrieved over Darwin indicates that the life cycle of ice clouds is probably shorter over Darwin than over Niamey.

Relevância:

60.00% 60.00%

Publicador:

Resumo:

We present the results of simulations carried out with the Met Office Unified Model at 12km, 4km and 1.5km resolution for a large region centred on West Africa using several different representations of the convection processes. These span the range of resolutions from much coarser than the size of the convection processes to the cloud-system resolving and thus encompass the intermediate "grey-zone". The diurnal cycle in the extent of convective regions in the models is tested against observations from the Geostationary Earth Radiation Budget instrument on Meteosat-8. By this measure, the two best-performing simulations are a 12km model without convective parametrization, using Smagorinsky style sub-grid scale mixing in all three dimensions and a 1.5km simulations with two-dimensional Smagorinsky mixing. Of these, the 12km model produces a better match to the magnitude of the total cloud fraction but the 1.5km results in better timing for its peak value. The results suggest that the previously-reported improvement in the representation of the diurnal cycle of convective organisation in the 4km model compared to the standard 12km configuration is principally a result of the convection scheme employed rather than the improved resolution per se. The details of and implications for high-resolution model simulations are discussed.

Relevância:

60.00% 60.00%

Publicador:

Resumo:

The performance of 18 coupled Chemistry Climate Models (CCMs) in the Tropical Tropopause Layer (TTL) is evaluated using qualitative and quantitative diagnostics. Trends in tropopause quantities in the tropics and the extratropical Upper Troposphere and Lower Stratosphere (UTLS) are analyzed. A quantitative grading methodology for evaluating CCMs is extended to include variability and used to develop four different grades for tropical tropopause temperature and pressure, water vapor and ozone. Four of the 18 models and the multi-model mean meet quantitative and qualitative standards for reproducing key processes in the TTL. Several diagnostics are performed on a subset of the models analyzing the Tropopause Inversion Layer (TIL), Lagrangian cold point and TTL transit time. Historical decreases in tropical tropopause pressure and decreases in water vapor are simulated, lending confidence to future projections. The models simulate continued decreases in tropopause pressure in the 21st century, along with ∼1K increases per century in cold point tropopause temperature and 0.5–1 ppmv per century increases in water vapor above the tropical tropopause. TTL water vapor increases below the cold point. In two models, these trends are associated with 35% increases in TTL cloud fraction. These changes indicate significant perturbations to TTL processes, specifically to deep convective heating and humidity transport. Ozone in the extratropical lowermost stratosphere has significant and hemispheric asymmetric trends. O3 is projected to increase by nearly 30% due to ozone recovery in the Southern Hemisphere (SH) and due to enhancements in the stratospheric circulation. These UTLS ozone trends may have significant effects in the TTL and the troposphere.

Relevância:

60.00% 60.00%

Publicador:

Resumo:

Aerosol indirect effects continue to constitute one of the most important uncertainties for anthropogenic climate perturbations. Within the international AEROCOM initiative, the representation of aerosol-cloud-radiation interactions in ten different general circulation models (GCMs) is evaluated using three satellite datasets. The focus is on stratiform liquid water clouds since most GCMs do not include ice nucleation effects, and none of the model explicitly parameterises aerosol effects on convective clouds. We compute statistical relationships between aerosol optical depth (τa) and various cloud and radiation quantities in a manner that is consistent between the models and the satellite data. It is found that the model-simulated influence of aerosols on cloud droplet number concentration (Nd ) compares relatively well to the satellite data at least over the ocean. The relationship between �a and liquid water path is simulated much too strongly by the models. This suggests that the implementation of the second aerosol indirect effect mainly in terms of an autoconversion parameterisation has to be revisited in the GCMs. A positive relationship between total cloud fraction (fcld) and �a as found in the satellite data is simulated by the majority of the models, albeit less strongly than that in the satellite data in most of them. In a discussion of the hypotheses proposed in the literature to explain the satellite-derived strong fcld–�a relationship, our results indicate that none can be identified as a unique explanation. Relationships similar to the ones found in satellite data between �a and cloud top temperature or outgoing long-wave radiation (OLR) are simulated by only a few GCMs. The GCMs that simulate a negative OLR - �a relationship show a strong positive correlation between �a and fcld. The short-wave total aerosol radiative forcing as simulated by the GCMs is strongly influenced by the simulated anthropogenic fraction of �a, and parameterisation assumptions such as a lower bound on Nd . Nevertheless, the strengths of the statistical relationships are good predictors for the aerosol forcings in the models. An estimate of the total short-wave aerosol forcing inferred from the combination of these predictors for the modelled forcings with the satellite-derived statistical relationships yields a global annual mean value of −1.5±0.5Wm−2. In an alternative approach, the radiative flux perturbation due to anthropogenic aerosols can be broken down into a component over the cloud-free portion of the globe (approximately the aerosol direct effect) and a component over the cloudy portion of the globe (approximately the aerosol indirect effect). An estimate obtained by scaling these simulated clearand cloudy-sky forcings with estimates of anthropogenic �a and satellite-retrieved Nd–�a regression slopes, respectively, yields a global, annual-mean aerosol direct effect estimate of −0.4±0.2Wm−2 and a cloudy-sky (aerosol indirect effect) estimate of −0.7±0.5Wm−2, with a total estimate of −1.2±0.4Wm−2.

Relevância:

60.00% 60.00%

Publicador:

Resumo:

In order to calculate unbiased microphysical and radiative quantities in the presence of a cloud, it is necessary to know not only the mean water content but also the distribution of this water content. This article describes a study of the in-cloud horizontal inhomogeneity of ice water content, based on CloudSat data. In particular, by focusing on the relations with variables that are already available in general circulation models (GCMs), a parametrization of inhomogeneity that is suitable for inclusion in GCM simulations is developed. Inhomogeneity is defined in terms of the fractional standard deviation (FSD), which is given by the standard deviation divided by the mean. The FSD of ice water content is found to increase with the horizontal scale over which it is calculated and also with the thickness of the layer. The connection to cloud fraction is more complicated; for small cloud fractions FSD increases as cloud fraction increases while FSD decreases sharply for overcast scenes. The relations to horizontal scale, layer thickness and cloud fraction are parametrized in a relatively simple equation. The performance of this parametrization is tested on an independent set of CloudSat data. The parametrization is shown to be a significant improvement on the assumption of a single-valued global FSD

Relevância:

60.00% 60.00%

Publicador:

Resumo:

In 2005, the International Ocean Colour Coordinating Group (IOCCG) convened a working group to examine the state of the art in ocean colour data merging, which showed that the research techniques had matured sufficiently for creating long multi-sensor datasets (IOCCG, 2007). As a result, ESA initiated and funded the DUE GlobColour project (http://www.globcolour.info/) to develop a satellite based ocean colour data set to support global carbon-cycle research. It aims to satisfy the scientific requirement for a long (10+ year) time-series of consistently calibrated global ocean colour information with the best possible spatial coverage. This has been achieved by merging data from the three most capable sensors: SeaWiFS on GeoEye's Orbview-2 mission, MODIS on NASA's Aqua mission and MERIS on ESA's ENVISAT mission. In setting up the GlobColour project, three user organisations were invited to help. Their roles are to specify the detailed user requirements, act as a channel to the broader end user community and to provide feedback and assessment of the results. The International Ocean Carbon Coordination Project (IOCCP) based at UNESCO in Paris provides direct access to the carbon cycle modelling community's requirements and to the modellers themselves who will use the final products. The UK Met Office's National Centre for Ocean Forecasting (NCOF) in Exeter, UK, provides an understanding of the requirements of oceanography users, and the IOCCG bring their understanding of the global user needs and valuable advice on best practice within the ocean colour science community. The three year project kicked-off in November 2005 under the leadership of ACRI-ST (France). The first year was a feasibility demonstration phase that was successfully concluded at a user consultation workshop organised by the Laboratoire d'Océanographie de Villefranche, France, in December 2006. Error statistics and inter-sensor biases were quantified by comparison with insitu measurements from moored optical buoys and ship based campaigns, and used as an input to the merging. The second year was dedicated to the production of the time series. In total, more than 25 Tb of input (level 2) data have been ingested and 14 Tb of intermediate and output products created, with 4 Tb of data distributed to the user community. Quality control (QC) is provided through the Diagnostic Data Sets (DDS), which are extracted sub-areas covering locations of in-situ data collection or interesting oceanographic phenomena. This Full Product Set (FPS) covers global daily merged ocean colour products in the time period 1997-2006 and is also freely available for use by the worldwide science community at http://www.globcolour.info/data_access_full_prod_set.html. The GlobColour service distributes global daily, 8-day and monthly data sets at 4.6 km resolution for, chlorophyll-a concentration, normalised water-leaving radiances (412, 443, 490, 510, 531, 555 and 620 nm, 670, 681 and 709 nm), diffuse attenuation coefficient, coloured dissolved and detrital organic materials, total suspended matter or particulate backscattering coefficient, turbidity index, cloud fraction and quality indicators. Error statistics from the initial sensor characterisation are used as an input to the merging methods and propagate through the merging process to provide error estimates for the output merged products. These error estimates are a key component of GlobColour as they are invaluable to the users; particularly the modellers who need them in order to assimilate the ocean colour data into ocean simulations. An intensive phase of validation has been undertaken to assess the quality of the data set. In addition, inter-comparisons between the different merged datasets will help in further refining the techniques used. Both the final products and the quality assessment were presented at a second user consultation in Oslo on 20-22 November 2007 organised by the Norwegian Institute for Water Research (NIVA); presentations are available on the GlobColour WWW site. On request of the ESA Technical Officer for the GlobColour project, the FPS data set was mirrored in the PANGAEA data library.