Playing Second Fiddle: Expert Advice and Decision-Making in Switzerland

This thesis concerns the role of scientific expertise in the decision-making process at the Swiss federal level of government. It aims to understand how institutional and issue-specific factors influence three things: the distribution of access to scientific expertise, its valuation by participants in policy for- mulation, and the consequence(s) its mobilization has on policy politics and design. The theoretical framework developed builds on the assumption that scientific expertise is a strategic resource. In order to effectively mobilize this resource, actors require financial and organizational resources, as well as the conviction that it can advance their instrumental interests within a particular action situation. Institutions of the political system allocate these financial and organizational resources, influence the supply of scientific expertise, and help shape the venue of its deployment. Issue structures, in turn, condition both interaction configurations and the way in which these are anticipated by actors. This affects the perceived utility of expertise mobilization, mediating its consequences. The findings of this study show that the ability to access and control scientific expertise is strongly concentrated in the hands of the federal administration. Civil society actors have weak capacities to mobilize it, and the autonomy of institutionalized advisory bodies is limited. Moreover, the production of scientific expertise is undergoing a process of professionalization which strengthens the position of the federal administration as the (main) mandating agent. Despite increased political polarization and less inclu- sive decision-making, scientific expertise remains anchored in the policy subsystem, rather than being used to legitimate policy through appeals to the wider population. Finally, the structure of a policy problem matters both for expertise mobilization and for the latter's impact on the policy process, be- cause it conditions conflict structures and their anticipation. Structured problems result in a greater overlap between the principal of expertise mobilization and its intended audience, thereby increasing the chance that expertise shapes policy design. Conversely, less structured problems, especially those that involve conflicts about values and goals, reduce the impact of expertise.

Sleep loss reduces the DNA-binding of BMAL1, CLOCK, and NPAS2 to specific clock genes in the mouse cerebral cortex.

We have previously demonstrated that clock genes contribute to the homeostatic aspect of sleep regulation. Indeed, mutations in some clock genes modify the markers of sleep homeostasis and an increase in homeostatic sleep drive alters clock gene expression in the forebrain. Here, we investigate a possible mechanism by which sleep deprivation (SD) could alter clock gene expression by quantifying DNA-binding of the core-clock transcription factors CLOCK, NPAS2, and BMAL1 to the cis-regulatory sequences of target clock genes in mice. Using chromatin immunoprecipitation (ChIP), we first showed that, as reported for the liver, DNA-binding of CLOCK and BMAL1 to target clock genes changes in function of time-of-day in the cerebral cortex. Tissue extracts were collected at ZT0 (light onset), -6, -12, and -18, and DNA enrichment of E-box or E'-box containing sequences was measured by qPCR. CLOCK and BMAL1 binding to Cry1, Dbp, Per1, and Per2 depended on time-of-day, with maximum values reached at around ZT6. We then observed that SD, performed between ZT0 and -6, significantly decreased DNA-binding of CLOCK and BMAL1 to Dbp, consistent with the observed decrease in Dbp mRNA levels after SD. The DNA-binding of NPAS2 and BMAL1 to Per2 was also decreased by SD, although SD is known to increase Per2 expression in the cortex. DNA-binding to Per1 and Cry1 was not affected by SD. Our results show that the sleep-wake history can affect the clock molecular machinery directly at the level of chromatin binding thereby altering the cortical expression of Dbp and Per2 and likely other targets. Although the precise dynamics of the relationship between DNA-binding and mRNA expression, especially for Per2, remains elusive, the results also suggest that part of the reported circadian changes in DNA-binding of core clock components in tissues peripheral to the suprachiasmatic nuclei could, in fact, be sleep-wake driven.

Econometrics and decision making: Effects of presentation mode

Much of empirical economics involves regression analysis. However, does thepresentation of results affect economists ability to make inferences for decision makingpurposes? In a survey, 257 academic economists were asked to make probabilisticinferences on the basis of the outputs of a regression analysis presented in a standardformat. Questions concerned the distribution of the dependent variable conditional onknown values of the independent variable. However, many respondents underestimateduncertainty by failing to take into account the standard deviation of the estimatedresiduals. The addition of graphs did not substantially improve inferences. On the otherhand, when only graphs were provided (i.e., with no statistics), respondents weresubstantially more accurate. We discuss implications for improving practice in reportingresults of regression analyses.

The impact of gender composition on team performance and decision-making: Evidence from the field

We investigate whether the gender composition of teams affect theireconomic performance. We study a large business game, played in groups ofthree, where each group takes the role of a general manager. There are twoparallel competitions, one involving undergraduates and the other involvingMBAs. Our analysis shows that teams formed by three women aresignificantly outperformed by any other gender combination, both at theundergraduate and MBA levels. Looking across the performancedistribution, we find that for undergraduates, three women teams areoutperformed throughout, but by as much as 10pp at the bottom and by only1pp at the top. For MBAs, at the top, the best performing group is two menand one woman. The differences in performance are explained bydifferences in decision-making. We observe that three women teams are lessaggressive in their pricing strategies, invest less in R&D, and invest more insocial sustainability initiatives, than any other gender combination teams.Finally, we find support for the hypothesis that it is poor work dynamicsamong the three women teams that drives the results.

Giffen goods and market making

This paper shows that information effects per se are not responsible forthe Giffen goods anomaly affecting competitive traders demands in multi-asset, noisy rational expectations equilibrium models. The role thatinformation plays in traders strategies also matters. In a market withrisk averse, uninformed traders, informed agents havea dual motive for trading: speculation and market making. Whilespeculation entails using prices to assess the effect of private signalerror terms, market making requires employing them to disentangle noisetraders effects in traders aggregate orders. In a correlated environment,this complicates a trader s signal-extraction problem and maygenerate upward-sloping demand curves. Assuming either (i) that competitive,risk neutral market makers price the assets, or that (ii) the risktolerance coefficient of uninformed traders grows without bound, removesthe market making component from informed traders demands, rendering themwell behaved in prices.

A Local DLP-GIS-LP system for geographically decentralized wood procurement planning and decision making

Summary

Role of CLOCK and circadian rhythms in calcium homeostasis

Le maintien d'une concentration sanguine constante de calcium est d'une importance cruciale et trois organes participent à la balance calcique normale : les reins, les intestins et les os. La concentration plasmatique de calcium est strictement régulée par l'hormone parathyroïdienne (PTH) et par la vitamine D. Des variations circadiennes de la PTH, de la vitamine D ainsi que du calcium plasmatique ont été décrites précédemment chez l'humain ainsi que chez le rat. Ces rythmes de PTH dans le sérum sont importants pour la régulation du remodelage de l'os. En effet, il a été montré chez les souris C57BL/6J que des injections de PTH une fois par jour mènent à une augmentation de la densité minérale de l'os alors que l'infusion en continu de PTH est associée à une diminution de cette densité. La vitamine D joue également un rôle fondamental dans la physiologie osseuse, car un déficit en vitamine D peut conduire à une ostéomalacie. Cependant la fonction des oscillations de vitamine D au niveau de l'homéostasie osseuse reste inconnue. L'horloge circadienne est un système interne de contrôle biologique du temps générant des rythmes de 24 heures dans l'expression des gènes, ainsi que dans la physiologie et le comportement. Ce contrôle s'opère par des boucles rétroactives positives et négatives de l'expression de gènes circadiens tels que CLOCK, BMAL1, CRY1 et 2 ou PERI et 2. Dans ce travail, nous avons émis l'hypothèse que l'homéostasie calcique est sous le contrôle de l'horloge circadienne. Dans un premier temps, nous avons montré chez les souris C57BL/6J des variations journalières des concentrations de calcium, de PTH et de vitamine D dans le sang, ainsi que de calcium dans les urines. Nous avons également démontré des changements au niveau de l'expression rénale des gènes importants dans l'homéostasie du calcium, tant au niveau de l'ARN messager que des protéines. Ensuite, pour analyser le rôle du système de l'horloge circadienne dans l'homéostasie du calcium, nous avons étudié des souris dans lesquelles a été supprimé le gène CLOCK crucial pour la fonction de l'horloge et nous avons comparé ces souris à des souris de type sauvage de même portée. Les souris CLOCK-I- étaient hypercalciuriques à chaque moment de la journée. Cependant le rythme circadien de l'excrétion de calcium était préservé. Le taux de calcium plasmatique ne différait pas entre les génotypes, mais les souris CLOCK -/- ne montraient pas de variations journalières de ce paramètre. Une perte du rythme journalier était également observée pour les niveaux de vitamine D, perte qui pourrait être une cause de l'altération de la micro-architecture osseuse révélée chez les souris CLOCK-/-. En effet, ces souris montrent une diminution du nombre de trabécules, de leur volume ainsi que de leur surface, ce qui suggère la présence d'ostéoporose. Nous avons également trouvé que le rythme de l'expression de l'ARN messager de CYP27B1 était aboli dans les reins des souris CLOCK -/-, ce qui peut expliquer l'altération du rythme de la vitamine D. Les taux sanguins de PTH étaient comparables entre les souris CLOCK -/- et de type sauvage. Dans les reins, une augmentation de l'expression de l'ARN messager de TRPV5 et NCX1 a été constatée, ce qui suggérerait une augmentation de la réabsorption de calcium dans le tubule convoluté distal et dans le tubule connecteur. Dans les intestins, la réabsorption calcique était diminuée, chez les souris CLOCK-I-, fait confirmé par une diminution des niveaux d'ARN messager de TRPV6 et PMCAL. En résumé, la suppression du gène CLOCK chez les souris a conduit à une hypercalciurie, une altération du rythme des taux plasmatiques de calcium et de vitamine D et à une détérioration de l'architecture osseuse. Pour conclure, ces résultats montrent que l'horloge circadienne est essentielle à l'homéostasie calcique ainsi qu'à la physiologie des os. - L'ostéoporose affecte environ 22 millions de femmes et 5.5 millions d'hommes en Europe, réduisant significativement leur qualité de vie et a causé 3.5 millions de nouvelles fractures en 2010. Les dépenses totales liées à ces fractures ont atteint 37 milliards d'euro et ce coût devrait augmenter de 25% d'ici à 2025. Le nombre de nouvelles fractures dues à l'ostéoporose à travers le monde est estimé à environ 1000 par heure. Parmi les causes de l'ostéoporose, le déficit én calcium et/ou en vitamine D joue un rôle important, mais il existe également des causes génétiques ou liées à des facteurs comme les hormones sexuelles (estrogènes, testostérone), l'âge, le tabac, le poids corporel, certains médicaments,... La vie est rythmique : ceci est dû à l'alternance naturelle du jour et de la nuit et de ses effets sur le corps. La prise alimentaire, par exemple, est un processus qui a lieu pendant la phase active, qui est prévisible (il se produit toujours au même moment) et qui peut être anticipé par le corps. Pour cela, une horloge interne est présente dans chaque cellule du corps et est synchronisée par la lumière du jour, entre autres stimuli. Cette horloge indique la phase du jour et régule l'expression de gènes impliqués dans les différents processus qui nécessitent une anticipation. Pendant mon travail de thèse, je me suis demandé si des îythmes circadiens (c'est-à-dire d'une durée d'environ 24 heures et indépendants des stimuli externes) étaient observables'pour les gènes régulant les flux de calcium dans le corps et si l'interruption de ces rythmes pouvait mener à des altérations de la qualité de l'os. J'ai d'abord travaillé avec des souris normales et j'ai pu montrer la présence de rythmes au niveau du calcium sanguin et urinaire, mais également au niveau des hormones et gènes qui contrôlent le métabolisme du calcium dans le corps, comme la vitamine D et l'hormone parathyroidienne. De manière intéressante, j'ai observé que la plupart de ces gènes ont un rythme synchronisé. J'ai ensuite utilisé un modèle de souris dans lequel l'horloge interne a été génétiquement invalidée et j'ai montré que ces souris présentent une augmentation de leur excrétion urinaire de calcium et un rythme circadien altéré de la vitamine D dans le sang. Ces souris absorbent aussi moins bien le calcium intestinal et présentent une ostéoporose marquée. Ce travail montre donc que l'horloge interne est nécessaire pour établir un rythme circadiens de certains facteurs influant les flux de calcium dans l'organisme, comme la vitamine D, et que la perturbation de ces rythmes mène à une dérégulation du métabolisme osseux. Ainsi, la perturbation de l'horloge interne peut causer une ostéoporose et une hypercalciurie qui pourraient aboutir à la formation de fractures et de calculs rénaux. L'extrapolation de ces observations chez l'homme ou à des changements plus subtiles des rythmes circadiens, comme le décalage horaire, restent à montrer. Cette recherche a démontré que les rythmes circadiens des mécanismes de régulation des flux de calcium dans l'organisme sont essentiels au maintien d'un squelette normal et suggère que les perturbations des rythmes circadiens pourraient être une nouvelle cause de l'ostéoporose. - Maintaining constant calcium concentration in the plasma is of a crucial importance and three organs participate in normal calcium balance - kidney, gut and bone. Plasma calcium concentration is strictly regulated by parathyroid hormone (PTH) and vitamin D. Circadian variations of PTH, vitamin D and plasma calcium were previously described in humans, as well as in rats. Rhythms in serum PTH are important for balanced bone remodelling. Indeed in C57BL/6J mice, PTH injection once per day leads to an increase in bone mineral density (BMD), whilst continuous infusion is associated with decreased BMD. Vitamin D also plays a crucial role in bone physiology, since the deficiency in vitamin D can lead to rickets/osteomalacia. However, the role of vitamin D rhythms in bone homeostasis remains unknown. The circadian clock is an. internal time-keeping system generating rhythms in gene expression with 24h periodicity, in physiology and in behaviour. It is operated by positive- and negative-feedback loops of circadian genes, such as CLOCK, BMAL1, CRY1 and 2 or PERI and 2. In this work, we hypothesized, that calcium homeostasis is under the control of the circadian clock. First, we showed daily variations in urinary calcium and serum calcium, PTH and l,25(OH)2 vitamin D, together with renal mRNA and protein levels of genes involved in calcium homeostasis in C57BL/6J mice. Second, and to investigate the role of the circadian clock system in calcium handling, we studied mice lacking the gene CLOCK crucial for fonction of the clock system and compared them to the WT littermates. CLOCK-/- mice were hypercalciuric at all timepoints of the day. However, the circadian rhythm of calcium excretion was preserved. Serum calcium levels did not differ between the genotypes, but CLOCK-/- mice did not exhibit daily variation for this parameter. Loss of rhythm was observed also for serum l,25(OH)2 vitamin D levels, which may be one of the causes of altered bone microarchitecture that was revealed in CLOCK-/- mice. They displayed increased trabecular separation and decreased trabecular number, trabecular bone volume and trabecular bone surface, suggestive of osteoporosis. We found that the rhythm of the mRNA expression of CYP27B1 was abolished in the kidney of CLOCK-/- mice, which could induce the altered rhythm of l,25(OH)2 vitamin. Serum PTH levels were comparable between CLOCK-/- and WT mice. In the kidney, increased mRNA expression of TRPV5 and NCX1 suggests increased calcium reabsorption in the distal convoluted and connecting tubule. In the gut, intestinal calcium absorption was decreased in CLOCK¬/- mice, confirmed by decreased mRNA levels of TRPV6 and PMCA1. In summary, deletion of the CLOCK gene in mice conducts to hypercalciuria, alteration of the rhythm in serum calcium and l,25(OH)2D levels, and impainnent of their bone microarchitecture. In conclusion, these data show that the circadian clock system is essential in calcium homeostasis and bone physiology.

Customer Research on a Group of European Book Publishers: Trends, Modes of Operation and Decision-Making Processes

Työn päätarkoitus oli tuottaa Stora Enson käyttöön tietoa kirjakustantajista, yhdestä yrityksen asiakassegmentistä. Yritys oli kiinnostunut useista asioista, jotka koskivat asiakkaita ja heidän mielipiteitään. Tarkoitus on, että Stora Enso voi käyttää tutkimuksella koottua tietoa oman toimintansa suunnittelun tukena. Kerätty sekundääritieto esittelee eurooppalaisen kirjakustantamisen nykytilaa ja tulevaisuutta sekä teorioita, jotka tukevat tutkittuja aihealueita. Primääritieto kerättiin henkilökohtaisilla haastatteluilla. Otanta koostui kymmenestä kirjakustantajasta, jotka toimivat Suomessa sekä Stora Enson päämarkkina-alueilla. Tutkimus tarjoaa päivitetyn kuvauksen kirjakustantamisesta. Haastateltavien mielipiteet alan trendeistä olivat yhteneviä yleisen mielipiteen kanssa, eikä suuria mielipide-eroavaisuuksia havaittu. Kustantajien toimintatapoja ja päätöksentekoprosesseja voidaan kuvata monimutkaisiksi, koska useat asiat vaikuttavat kirjan syntyyn ja paperin ostoprosessiin. Lisäksi tutkimus esittelee haastateltavien mielipiteitä paperin merkityksestä heidän liiketoiminnassaan.

Expertise and decision making among clinicians in investigations of alleged child sexual abuse

The purpose of the present thesis was to explore different aspects of decision making and expertise in investigations of child sexual abuse (CSA) and subsequently shed some light on the reasons for shortcomings in the investigation processes. Clinicians’ subjective attitudes as well as scientifically based knowledge concerning CSA, CSA investigation and interviewing were explored. Furthermore the clinicians’ own view on their expertise and what enhances this expertise was investigated. Also, the effects of scientific knowledge, experience and attitudes on the decision making in a case of CSA were explored. Finally, the effects of different kinds of feedback as well as experience on the ability to evaluate CSA in the light of children’s behavior and base rates were investigated. Both explorative and experimental methods were used. The purpose of Study I was to investigate whether clinicians investigating child sexual abuse (CSA) rely more on scientific knowledge or on clinical experience when evaluating their own expertise. Another goal was to check what kind of beliefs the clinicians held. The connections between these different factors were investigated. A questionnaire covering items concerning demographic data, experience, knowledge about CSA, selfevaluated expertise and beliefs about CSA was given to social workers, child psychiatrists and psychologists working with children. The results showed that the clinicians relied more on their clinical experience than on scientific knowledge when evaluating their expertise as investigators of CSA. Furthermore, social workers possessed stronger attitudes in favor of children than the other groups, while child psychiatrists had more negative attitudes towards the criminal justice system. Male participants held less strong beliefs than female participants. The findings indicate that the education of CSA investigators should focus more on theoretical knowledge and decision making processes as well as the role of beliefs In Study II school and family counseling psychologists completed a Child Sexual Abuse Attitude and Belief Scale. Four CSA related attitude and belief subscales were identified: 1. The Disclosure subscale reflecting favoring a disclosure at any cost, 2. The Pro-Child subscale reflecting unconditional belief in children's reports, 3. The Intuition subscale reflecting favoring an intuitive approach to CSA investigations, and 4. The Anti Criminal Justice System subscale reflecting negative attitudes towards the legal system. Beliefs that were erroneous according to empirical research were analyzed separately. The results suggest that some psychologists hold extreme attitudes and many erroneous beliefs related to CSA. Some misconceptions are common. Female participants tended to hold stronger attitudes than male participants. The more training in interviewing children the participants have, the more erroneous beliefs and stronger attitudes they hold. Experience did not affect attitudes and beliefs. In Study III mental health professionals’ sensitivity to suggestive interviewing in CSA cases was explored. Furthermore, the effects of attitudes and beliefs related to CSA and experience with CSA investigations on the sensitivity to suggestive influences in the interview were investigated. Also, the effect of base rate estimates of CSA on decisions was examined. A questionnaire covering items concerning demographic data, different aspects of clinical experience, self-evaluated expertise, beliefs and knowledge about CSA and a set of ambiguous material based on real trial documents concerning an alleged CSA case was given to child mental health professionals. The experiment was based on a 2 x 2 x 2 x 2 (leading questions: yes vs no) x (stereotype induction: yes vs no) x (emotional tone: pressure to respond vs no pressure to respond) x (threats and rewards: yes vs no) between-subjects factorial design, in which the suggestiveness of the methods with which the responses of the child were obtained were varied. There was an additional condition in which the material did not contain any interview transcripts. The results showed that clinicians are sensitive only to the presence of leading questions but not to the presence of other suggestive techniques. Furthermore, the clinicians were not sensitive to the possibility that suggestive techniques could have been used when no interview transcripts had been included in the trial material. Experience had an effect on the sensitivity of the clinicians only regarding leading questions. Strong beliefs related to CSA lessened the sensitivity to leading questions. Those showing strong beliefs on the belief scales used in this study were even more prone to prosecute than other participants when other suggestive influences than leading questions were present. Controversy exists regarding effects of experience and feedback on clinical decision making. In Study IV the impact of the number of handled cases and of feedback on the decisions in cases of alleged CSA was investigated. One-hundred vignettes describing cases of suspected CSA were given to students with no experience with investigating CSA. The vignettes were based on statistical data about symptoms and prevalence of CSA. According to the theoretical likelihood of CSA the children described were categorized as abused or not abused. The participants were asked to decide whether abuse had occurred. They were divided into 4 groups: one received feedback on whether their decision was right or wrong, one received information about cognitive processes involved in decision making, one received both, and one did not receive feedback at all. The results showed that participants who received feedback on their performance made more correct positive decisions and participants who got information about decision making processes made more correct negative decisions. Feedback and information combined decreased the number of correct positive decisions but increased the number of correct negative decisions. The number of read cases had in itself a positive effect on correct positive decision.

Protestant Churches and the making of the Universal Declaration of Human Rights

Kirjallisuusarvostelu

Soldiering and the making of Finnish manhood : conscription and masculinity in interwar Finland, 1918–1939

Military conscription and peacetime military service were the subjects of heated political, social and cultural controversies during the early years of national independence in Finland. Both the critics and the supporters of the existing military system described it as strongly formative of young men’s physical and moral development into adult men and male citizens. The conflicts over conscription prompted the contemporaries to express their notions about what Finnish men were like, at their best and at their worst, and what should and could be done about it. This thesis studies military conscription as an arena for the “making of manhood” in peacetime Finnish society, 1918–1939. It examines a range of public images of conscripted soldiering, asking how soldiering was depicted and given gendered meanings in parliamentary debates, war hero myths, texts concerned with the military and civic education of conscripts, as well as in works of fiction and reminiscences about military training as a personal experience. Studying conscription with a focus on masculinity, the thesis explores the different cultural images of manliness, soldiering and male citizenship on offer in Finnish society. It investigates how political parties, officers, educators, journalists, writers and “ordinary” conscripts used and developed, embraced or rejected these notions, according to their political purposes or personal needs. The period between the two world wars can be described as a fast-forward into military modernity in Finland. In the process, European middle class gender ideologies clashed with Finnish agrarian masculinities. Nationalistic agendas for the militarisation of Finnish manhood stumbled against intense class conflicts and ideological resistance. Military propaganda used images of military heroism, civic virtue and individual success to persuade the conscripts into ways of thinking and acting that were shaped by bourgeois mentality, nationalistic ideology and religious morality. These images are further analysed as expressive of the personal experiences and emotions of their middle-aged, male authors. The efforts of these military educators were, however, actively resisted on many fronts, ranging from rural working class masculinities among the conscripted young men to ideological critiques of the standing army system in parliament. In narratives about military training, masculinity was depicted as both strengthened and contradicted by the harsh and even brutal practices of interwar Finnish military training. The study represents a combination of new military history and the historical study of men and masculinities. It approaches masculinity as a contested and highly political form of social and cultural knowledge that is actively and selectively used by historic actors. Instead of trying to identify a dominant or “hegemonic” form of masculinity within a pre-determined theoretical structure, this study examines how the meanings ascribed to manhood varied according to class, age, political ideology and social situation. The interwar period in Finland can be understood as a period of contest between different notions of militarised masculinity, yet to judge by the materials studied, there was no clear winning party in that contest. A gradual movement from an atmosphere of conflict surrounding conscription towards political and cultural compromises can be discerned, yet this convergence was incomplete and many division lines remained.