Climate variability effects on summer cropping systems on the Iberian Peninsula

Climate variability and changes in the frequency of extremes events have a direct impact on crop yield and damages. Climate anomalies projections at monthly and yearly timescale allows us for adapting a cropping system (crops, varieties and management) to take advantage of favorable conditions or reduce the effect of adverse conditions. The objective of this work is to develop indices to evaluate the effect of climatic variability in summer cropping systems of Iberian Peninsula, in an attempt of relating yield variability to climate variability, extending the work of Rodríguez-Puebla (2004).

Explaining point variability in the eastern Victoria river region, northern territory

This paper constructs a reduction sequence model for north Australian points from the eastern Victoria River region, and identifies a single continuum linking unifacial and bifacial point forms, with some divergence from this single reduction trajectory dependent upon artefact size. Chronological changes in reduction intensity between 5,000BP and the present are found to coincide with typological variation in points as well as changing emphasis on the extendibility of point reduction. It is suggested that changes in the extendibility of point reduction can be linked to intensified ENSO-driven climatic variability in the late Holocene that likely increased economic risk and warranted a substantial technological response, including the use of retouched toolkits with potential for longer use-lives.

Climatic groups in Ibero-America viticulture compared to worldwide wine producer regions.

The wine production is an important activity in many Ibero-American countries. The wine producer regions of these countries configure a large use of different climate types and viticultural climates. In a vitivinicultural zoning project of CYTED (Ibero-American Program for Science, Technology and Development), a viticultural climatic characterization was done in this macro viticultural region. The project have assembled a climatic database that characterizes the viticultural regions, including relevant variables for viticulture: air temperature (mean, maximum, and minimum), precipitation, relative humidity, solar radiation, number of sunshine hours, wind speed, and evapotranspiration. Using indices of the Geoviticulture MCC System (HI, CI and DI), more than 70 viticultural regions in different countries (Argentina, Bolivia, Brazil, Chile, Cuba, Spain, Mexico, Peru, Portugal and Uruguay) were characterized according to its viticultural climatic. The results, which will be integrated to the worldwide database of the MCC System, showed that the Ibero-American viticulture is placed in a wide range of climatic groups of the wine producing regions around the world. This article presents the climatic groups found in Ibero-America, identifying also some new climatic groups not yet found in other regions of the world. This work also identifies some climatic groups not found in Ibero-America viticulture. The research has also highlighted viticultural areas characterized by climates with ?intra-annual climatic variability?, with the potential to produce more than one growing cycle per year. The results allow to conclude that the wide variability and climatic diversity present in Ibero-America may be one of the reasons to explain the diversity in terms of wine types, sensorial characteristics, typicity and uniqueness of wines produced on this macro-region.

Increasing profits and reducing risks in crop production using participatory systems simulation approaches

The development of cropping systems simulation capabilities world-wide combined with easy access to powerful computing has resulted in a plethora of agricultural models and consequently, model applications. Nonetheless, the scientific credibility of such applications and their relevance to farming practice is still being questioned. Our objective in this paper is to highlight some of the model applications from which benefits for farmers were or could be obtained via changed agricultural practice or policy. Changed on-farm practice due to the direct contribution of modelling, while keenly sought after, may in some cases be less achievable than a contribution via agricultural policies. This paper is intended to give some guidance for future model applications. It is not a comprehensive review of model applications, nor is it intended to discuss modelling in the context of social science or extension policy. Rather, we take snapshots around the globe to 'take stock' and to demonstrate that well-defined financial and environmental benefits can be obtained on-farm from the use of models. We highlight the importance of 'relevance' and hence the importance of true partnerships between all stakeholders (farmer, scientists, advisers) for the successful development and adoption of simulation approaches. Specifically, we address some key points that are essential for successful model applications such as: (1) issues to be addressed must be neither trivial nor obvious; (2) a modelling approach must reduce complexity rather than proliferate choices in order to aid the decision-making process (3) the cropping systems must be sufficiently flexible to allow management interventions based on insights gained from models. The pro and cons of normative approaches (e.g. decision support software that can reach a wide audience quickly but are often poorly contextualized for any individual client) versus model applications within the context of an individual client's situation will also be discussed. We suggest that a tandem approach is necessary whereby the latter is used in the early stages of model application for confidence building amongst client groups. This paper focuses on five specific regions that differ fundamentally in terms of environment and socio-economic structure and hence in their requirements for successful model applications. Specifically, we will give examples from Australia and South America (high climatic variability, large areas, low input, technologically advanced); Africa (high climatic variability, small areas, low input, subsistence agriculture); India (high climatic variability, small areas, medium level inputs, technologically progressing; and Europe (relatively low climatic variability, small areas, high input, technologically advanced). The contrast between Australia and Europe will further demonstrate how successful model applications are strongly influenced by the policy framework within which producers operate. We suggest that this might eventually lead to better adoption of fully integrated systems approaches and result in the development of resilient farming systems that are in tune with current climatic conditions and are adaptable to biophysical and socioeconomic variability and change. (C) 2001 Elsevier Science Ltd. All rights reserved.

Land cover dynamics in Savanna Ecosystem of Borena Ethiopia

Dissertation submitted in partial fulfillment of the requirements for the Degree of Master of Science in Geospatial Technologies.

Recent droughts and the impact of North Atlantic Oscillation in Iberia; a spatiotemporal analysis based on vegetation temperature condition Index (VTCI)

Dissertation submitted in partial fulfillment of the requirements for the Degree of Master of Science in Geospatial Technologies.

On the influences of the El Niño, La niña and Atlantic Dipole Paterni on the Amazonian Rainfall during 1960-1998

The influence of the large-scale climatic variability dominant modes in the Pacific and in the Atlantic on Amazonian rainfall is investigated. The composite technique of the Amazon precipitation anomalies is used in this work. The basis years for these composites arc those in the period 1960-1998 with occurrences of extremes in the Southern Oscillation (El Niño or La Niña) and the north/south warm (or cold) sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies dipole pattern in the tropical Atlantic. Warm (cold) dipole means positive (negative) anomalies in the tropical North Atlantic and negative (positive) anomalies in the tropical South Atlantic. Austral summer and autumn composites for extremes in the Southern Oscillation (El Niño or La Niña) and independently for north/south dipole pattern (warm or cold) of the SST anomalies in the tropical Atlantic present values (magnitude and sign) consistent with those found in previous works on the relationship between Amazon rainfall variations and the SST anomalies in the tropical Pacific and Atlantic. However, austral summer and autumn composites for the years with simultaneous occurrences of El Niño and warm north/south dipole of the SST anomalies in the tropical Atlantic show negative precipitation anomalies extending eastward over the center-eastern Amazon. This result indicates the important role played by the tropical Atlantic in the Amazon anomalous rainfall distribution.

21st century climate change: where has all the geomorphology gone?

This Commentary draws together recently published work relating to the relationship between climate change and geomorphology to address the surprising observation that geomorphic work seems to have had little impact upon the work of the Intergovernmental Panel for Climate Change. However, recent papers show that methodological innovation has allowed geomorphological reconstruction over timescales highly relevant to late 20th century and 21st century climate change. In turn, these and other developments are allowing links to be made between climatic variability and geomorphology, to begin to predict geomorphic futures and also to appreciate the role that geomorphic processes play in the flux of carbon and the carbon cycle.

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Studies aiming at explaining specialization along latitudinal gradients of plant-herbivore interactions have, to date, yielded inconclusive results. Here we propose the use of steep altitudinal gradients for dissecting factors driving evolution of polyphagy in insect herbivores. First, we test whether colonization of high elevation environment favours increased niche-breadth in two disparate insect groups - the wood-boring beetles and the pollinator group of bees - and show increased polyphagy at higher altitudes in both groups. We then assess classic assumptions transferred from the 'latitude-niche-breadth hypothesis', particularly the increase in environmental variability at high, compared to low, altitude. Finally, we discuss alternative mechanisms shaping the observed pattern of increased polyphagy in altitude, including variation in plant quality and predator pressure at different altitudes. We thus suggest evidence for the 'altitude niche-breadth hypothesis', in which both abiotic and biotic conditions, including increased variability and an increase of the potential feeding niche-breadth, promote evolution for increased insect polyphagy in altitude.

Estimation of the extreme flash flood evolution in Barcelona county from 1351 to 2005

Every year, flash floods cause economic losses and major problems for undertaking daily activity in the Catalonia region (NE Spain). Sometimes catastrophic damage and casualties occur. When a long term analysis of floods is undertaken, a question arises regarding the changing role of the vulnerability and the hazard in risk evolution. This paper sets out to give some information to deal with this question, on the basis of analysis of all the floods that have occurred in Barcelona county (Catalonia) since the 14th century, as well as the flooded area, urban evolution, impacts and the weather conditions for any of most severe events. With this objective, the identification and classification of historical floods, and characterisation of flash-floods among these, have been undertaken. Besides this, the main meteorological factors associated with recent flash floods in this city and neighbouring regions are well-known. On the other hand, the identification of rainfall trends that could explain the historical evolution of flood hazard occurrence in this city has been analysed. Finally, identification of the influence of urban development on the vulnerability to floods has been carried out. Barcelona city has been selected thanks to its long continuous data series (daily rainfall data series, since 1854; one of the longest rainfall rate series of Europe, since 1921) and for the accurate historical archive information that is available (since the Roman Empire for the urban evolution). The evolution of flood occurrence shows the existence of oscillations in the earlier and later modern-age periods that can be attributed to climatic variability, evolution of the perception threshold and changes in vulnerability. A great increase of vulnerability can be assumed for the period 1850¿1900. The analysis of the time evolution for the Barcelona rainfall series (1854¿2000) shows that no trend exists, although, due to changes in urban planning, flash-floods impact has altered over this time. The number of catastrophic flash floods has diminished, although the extraordinary ones have increased.

Studies on the paratial and temporal distribution of surface meteorological parameters over Indian subcontinent

The intention of the present thesis work is to understand the physical processes responsible for climatic variability and predictability of the Indian subcontinent. The study is expected to delineate and emphasize the various boundaries and areas of transition and bring out the regional and temporal characteristics of the meteorological distribution of the country. The results obtained from the study is expected to provide a better understanding the physics of Indian cl imate, which can be incorporated for numerical weather prediction. The results obtained from the present study can be incorporated for climate modelling and long-term prediction of the meteorological parameters over Indian subcontinent

Assessing adaptation – Climate change and indigenous livelihood in the Andes of Bolivia

Based on a case study of Charazani – Bolivia, this article outlines the understanding of adaptive strategies to cope with climate change and its impact on environmental and socioeconomic conditions that are affecting rural livelihoods. Mainly qualitative methods were used to collect and analyze data following the framework for vulnerability assessments of a socio-ecological system. Climate data reveals an increase of precipitation and temperature during the last decades. Furthermore the occurrence of extreme weather events, particularly drought, frost, hailstorms and consequently landslides and fire are increasing. Local testimonies highlight these events as the principle reasons for agricultural losses. This climatic variability and simultaneous social changes were identified as the drivers of vulnerability. Yet, several adaptive measures were identified at household, community and external levels in order to cope with such vulnerability; e.g. traditional techniques in agriculture and risk management. Gradually, farmers complement these activities with contemporary practices in agriculture, like intensification of land use, diversification of irrigation system and use of artificial fertilizers. As part of a recent trend community members are forced to search for new off-farm alternatives beyond agriculture for subsistence. Despite there is a correspondingly large array of possible adaptation measures that families are implementing, local testimonies point out, that farmers often do not have the capacity and neither the economical resources to mitigate the risk in agricultural production. Although several actions are already considered to promote further adaptive capacity, the current target is to improve existing livelihood strategies by reducing vulnerability to hazards induced by climate change.

Observed trends and teleconnections of the Siberian high: A recently declining center of action

This study investigates variability in the intensity of the wintertime Siberian high (SH) by defining a robust SH index (SHI) and correlating it with selected meteorological fields and teleconnection indices. A dramatic trend of -2.5 hPa decade(-1) has been found in the SHI between 1978 and 2001 with unprecedented (since 1871) low values of the SHI. The weakening of the SH has been confirmed by analyzing different historical gridded analyses and individual station observations of sea level pressure (SLP) and excluding possible effects from the conversion of surface pressure to SLP. SHI correlation maps with various meteorological fields show that SH impacts on circulation and temperature patterns extend far outside the SH source area extending from the Arctic to the tropical Pacific. Advection of warm air from eastern Europe has been identified as the main mechanism causing milder than normal conditions over the Kara and Laptev Seas in association with a strong SH. Despite the strong impacts of the variability in the SH on climatic variability across the Northern Hemisphere, correlations between the SHI and the main teleconnection indices of the Northern Hemisphere are weak. Regression analysis has shown that teleconnection indices are not able to reproduce the interannual variability and trends in the SH. The inclusion of regional surface temperature in the regression model provides closer agreement between the original and reconstructed SHI.

Interactions between mass balance, atmospheric circulation, and recent climate change on the Djankuat Glacier, Caucasus Mountains, Russia

This paper reports recent changes in the mass balance record from the Djankuat Glacier, central greater Caucasus, Russia, and investigates possible relationships between the components of mass balance, local climate, and distant atmospheric forcing. The results clearly show that a strong warming signal has emerged in the central greater Caucasus, particularly since the 1993/1994 mass balance year, and this has led to a significant increase in the summer ablation of Djankuat. At the same time, there has been no compensating consistent increase in winter precipitation and accumulation leading to the strong net loss of mass and increase in glacier runoff. Interannual variability in ablation and accumulation is partly associated with certain major patterns of Northern Hemisphere climatic variability. The positive phase of the North Pacific (NP) teleconnection pattern forces negative geopotential height and temperature anomalies over the Caucasus in summer and results in reduced summer melt, such as in the early 1990s, when positive NP extremes resulted in a temporary decline in ablation rates. The positive phase of the NP is related to El Nino-Southern Oscillation, and it is possible that a teleconnection between the tropical Pacific sea surface temperatures and summer air temperatures in the Caucasus is bridged through the NP pattern. More recently, the NP pattern was predominantly negative, and this distant moderating forcing on summer ablation in the Caucasus was absent. Statistically significant correlations are observed between accumulation and the Scandinavian (SCA) teleconnection pattern. The frequent occurrence of the positive SCA phase at the beginning of accumulation season results in lower than average snowfall and reduced accumulation. The relationship between the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO), Arctic Oscillation, and accumulation is weak, although positive precipitation anomalies in the winter months are associated with the negative phase of the NAO. A stronger positive correlation is observed between accumulation on Djankuat and geopotential height over the Bay of Biscay unrelated to the established modes of the Northern Hemisphere climatic variability. These results imply that the mass balance of Djankuat is sensitive to the natural variability in the climate system. Distant forcing, however, explains only 16% of the variance in the ablation record and cannot fully explain the recent increase in ablation and negative mass balance.

Fire regimes during the last glacial

Sedimentary charcoal records document changes in fire regime. We have identified 67 sites (30 sites with better than millennial resolution) which have records for some part of the Last Glacial to analyse changes in global fire regimes. Fire was consistently lower during the glacial than during the Eemian and Holocene. Within the glacial, Marine Isotope Stage (MIS) 3 is characterised globally by more fire than MIS 2. The signal for MIS 4 is less clear: there is more fire in the Northern Hemisphere and less fire in the Southern Hemisphere than during MIS 2 and 3. The records, most particularly records from the northern extratropics, show millennial-scale variability in fire regimes corresponding to the rapid climate changes associated with Dansgaard–Oeschger (D-O) cycles. Most of the D-O cycles during the Last Glacial and all of the Heinrich stadials are apparent in the composite global record of fire regime: fire increases during D-O warming events and decreases during intervals of rapid cooling. Our analyses show that fire regimes show a lagged response to rapid climate changes of ca 100–200 years in the case of D-O warming events, ca 0–100 years in the case of D-O cooling events and ca 200 years in the case of Heinrich Stadials. The Strong climatic variability experienced during the glacial resulted in important changes in fire regimes even though the base level of biomass burning was less than today.