R-script modified VS-Lite model

Drought is a key factor affecting forest ecosystem processes at different spatio-temporal scales. For accurately modeling tree functioning ? and thus for producing reliable simulations of forest dynamics ? the consideration of the variability in the timing and extent of drought effects on tree growth is essential, particularly in strongly seasonal climates such as in the Mediterranean area. Yet, most dynamic vegetation models (DVMs) do not include this intra-annual variability of drought effects on tree growth. We present a novel approach for linking tree-ring data to drought simulations in DVMs. A modified forward model of tree-ring width (VS-Lite) was used to estimate seasonal- and site-specific growth responses to drought of Scots pine (Pinus sylvestris L.), which were subsequently implemented in the DVM ForClim. Ring-width data from sixteen sites along a moisture gradient from Central Spain to the Swiss Alps, including the dry inner Alpine valleys, were used to calibrate the forward ring-width model, and inventory data from managed Scots pine stands were used to evaluate ForClim performance. The modified VS-Lite accurately estimated the year-to-year variability in ring-width indices and produced realistic intra-annual growth responses to soil drought, showing a stronger relationship between growth and drought in spring than in the other seasons and thus capturing the strategy of Scots pine to cope with drought. The ForClim version including seasonal variability in growth responses to drought showed improved predictions of stand basal area and stem number, indicating the need to consider intra-annual differences in climate-growth relationships in DVMs when simulating forest dynamics. Forward modeling of ring-width growth may be a powerful tool to calibrate growth functions in DVMs that aim to simulate forest properties in across multiple environments at large spatial scales.

Exploratory spatial analysis of social and environmental factors associated with the incidence of Ross River Virus in Brisbane, Australia

We used geographic information systems and a spatial analysis approach to explore the pattern of Ross River virus (RRV) incidence in Brisbane, Australia. Climate, vegetation and socioeconomic data in 2001 were obtained from the Australian Bureau of Meteorology, the Brisbane City Council and the Australian Bureau of Statistics, respectively. Information on the RRV cases was obtained from the Queensland Department of Health. Spatial and multiple negative binomial regression models were used to identify the socioeconomic and environmental determinants of RRV transmission. The results show that RRV activity was primarily concentrated in the northeastern, northwestern, and southeastern regions in Brisbane. Multiple negative binomial regression models showed that the spatial pattern of RRV disease in Brisbane seemed to be determined by a combination of local ecologic, socioeconomic, and environmental factors.

Members abroad - Australia - Brisbane and the Gold Coast

Brisbane's sub-tropical climate, vegetation and urban history as a British settlement, endow the region with many characteristics that are familiar in KwaZulu-Natal. Brisbane settlement, firstly as a penal conlony to accommodate the hardiest criminals dispatched from Sydney, was established in 1825 on a wide river, several kilometers upstream from Moreton Bay with the Pacific Ocean beyond. The penal colony was short lived and was soon opened up to free settlement in 1842. The growth of the fledgling town was characterized by brick warehouse and service buildings to the port that was established on its riverbanks, resembling those of the old Point Road area in Durban. Government and administration buildings heralded Brisbane as the captial city of the State of Queensland, annexed from New South Wales in 1859. Morphological studies reveal that Brisbane had reached its first zenith around 1930 as a commerical city of four and five storey buildings. The urban form remained stagnant until the post-1960's building boom and the developments from this period on, consolidated land amalgamations largely ignoring the urban characteristics of the established city. Public space was poorly observed, resulting in a city that had turned its back on the river. It is only in recent times that the currency of good urban design, under the custodial direction of the City Council, has fostered a re-engagemed urban realm that, enabled by the recent building boom, has delivered high quality urban environments

Rannansiirtyminen ja ihmisen toimintaympäristön muutos Mätäjokilaakson alueella esihistoriallisella ajalla

In this thesis, I study the changing ladscape and human environment of the Mätäjoki Valley, West-Helsinki, using reconstructions and predictive modelling. The study is a part of a larger project funded by the city of Helsinki aming to map the past of the Mätäjoki Valley. The changes in landscape from an archipelago in the Ancylus Lake to a river valley are studied from 10000 to 2000 years ago. Alongside shore displacement, we look at the changing environment from human perspective and predict the location of dwelling sitesat various times. As a result, two map series were produced that show how the landscape changed and where inhabitance is predicted. To back them up, we have also looked at what previous research says about the history of the waterways, climate, vegetation and archaeology. The changing landscape of the river valley is reconstructed using GIS methods. For this purpose, new laser point data set was used and at the same time tested in the context landscape modelling. Dwelling sites were modeled with logistic regression analysis. The spatial predictive model combines data on the locations of the known dwelling sites, environmental factors and shore displacement data. The predictions were visualised into raster maps that show the predictions for inhabitance 3000 and 5000 years ago. The aim of these maps was to help archaeologists map potential spots for human activity. The produced landscape reconstructions clarified previous shore displacement studies of the Mätäjoki region and provided new information on the location of shoreline. From the shore displacement history of the Mätäjoki Valley arise the following stages: 1. The northernmost hills of the Mätäjoki Valley rose from Ancylus Lake approximately 10000 years ago. Shore displacement was fast during the following thousand years. 2. The area was an archipelago with a relatively steady shoreline 9000 7000 years ago. 8000 years ago the shoreline drew back in the middle and southern parts of the river valley because of the transgression of the Litorina Sea. 3. Mätäjoki was a sheltered bay of the Litorina Sea 6000 5000 years ago. The Vantaanjoki River started to flow into the Mätäjoki Valley approximately 5000 years ago. 4. The sediment plains in the southern part of the river valley rose from the sea rather quickly 5000 3000 years ago. Salt water still pushed its way into the southermost part of the valley 4000 years ago. 5. The shoreline proceeded to Pitäjänmäki rapids where it stayed at least a thousand years 3000 2000 years ago. The predictive models managed to predict the locations of dwelling sites moderately well. The most accurate predictions were found on the eastern shore and Malminkartano area. Of the environment variables sand and aspect of slope were found to have the best predictive power. From the results of this study we can conclude that the Mätäjoki Valley has been a favorable location to live especially 6000 5000 years ago when the climate was mild and vegetation lush. The laser point data set used here works best in shore displacement studies located in rural areas or if further specific palaeogeographic or hydrologic analysis in the research area is not needed.

中国植被与气候关系研究

植被－气候关系的研究是预测陆地生态系统对全球变化反应的基础，为研究中国生态系统对全球变化的响应模式，本文对植被分布和植被生产力与气候关系进行了初步探讨。 首先在分析中国气候与植被特点的基础上，将中国潜在自然植被共划分为18类：寒温带针叶林，温带针阔叶混交林，暖温带落叶阔叶林，亚热带常绿落叶林混交林，典型亚热带常绿落叶林，亚热带季风常绿阔叶林，亚热带北常绿阔叶林，西部亚热带旱性常绿阔叶林，西部热带旱性热带雨林、季雨林，热带雨林、季雨林区，森林草原，典型草原，荒漠草原，温带荒漠，暖温带极干旱荒漠，青藏高原高寒灌丛草甸，青藏高原高寒草原、温性草原，青藏高原离寒荒漠。然后从中国基准气象站的气象资料出发，采用Penman方法计算了中国标准气象站的水分平衡指标，根据植被分布的多维气候生态位理论，对水分平衡指标及温度指标与植被分布的关系进行了多元分析，经过主成分析、相关分析、判别分析，典型判别分析等方法综合评价，得出低温指数( LTI)，生长季实际蒸散( GAE)、生长季水分亏缺(GDE)，干燥度（RATI）是与植被关系最密切的指标，与其它分类系统指标相比较，用该系统中两参数(GAE，RATI)与其它七个两参数模型的邻近判别分析结果比较，本研究提出的气候参数对中国植被类型具有最大的正确判别率;与8个参数的Box植被生活型与气候关系系统相比较，本文四参数模型的判别正确率与之无显著差异．为更直观地表达出植被类型与气候指标之间的关系，运用多段线性判别方法设计了二维决策模型，正确区分率为73.5%． 在收集425个生物量、生产力数据的基础上，分析了气象要素与植被生产力关系，对选取部分地带性植被测量点的数据分析后，提出了中国植被生产力与水分平衡关系的回归模型： NPP=2.55×GAE×EXP(-4.2092-1.9665.RATI) 运用本文建立的植被分布及生产力与气候关系模型对全球气候变化（温度增加、雨量变化）后中国植被的可能变化进行了预测，结果表明青藏高原植被，寒温带针叶林与典型草原对全球变化较敏感，特别是生产力变化较明显，不同的温雨变化组合，不同植被类型的NPP的反应差异显著．

中国植物功能型-生物群区的划分

气候在大尺度上决定着植被的分布、结构和组成，植被结构和生理状态的改变可以通过改变植被的反射率、粗糙度以及水分通量进而影响气候，这样形成了气候一植被的相互作用。在植被一气候相互作用的研究中，植物功能型是重要的概念和方法，它可以在详尽描述植被生物物理和生理特征的同时，有效削减植被的复杂性。植物功能型的概念和方法已经在植物群落、生态系统的复杂性和功能、古植被和古气候研究，以及陆面过程模型和动态全球植被模型中得到了广泛的应用。但是针对我国植被-气候的相互作用和区域尺度的全球变化研究，还需要一套特定的植物功能型．生物群区体系。 　　本论文根据我国植被生态学和植被分类的研究背景，结合植被．气候相互作用和区域全球变化研究的需要，提出了一套适宜于中国的植物功能型．生物群区划分方案。首先，根据中国植被和气候特征，筛选并确定了影响植被生物物理和生理属性以及植被分布的6个关键的植物功能特征：然后，根据这6个特征，对植物进行功能型划分，得到了29类植物功能型：再根据我国植被的实际情况和研究需要，选定了其中的18类作为我国的植物功能型。这套功能型包括了7类‘树’功能型，6类‘灌木’功能型和5类‘草’功能型，其中含有4类高寒植物功能型，专门用于描述青藏高原的植被分布，并根据需要设置了2类‘裸地，功能型。 　　根据我国气候一植被分布定量关系的相关研究以及BIOME1和Box体系的研究结果，选定7个环境变量作为限制我国植物功能型分布的关键气候因子：最冷月平均气温、最暖月平均气温、大于50C的有效生长积温、大于OºC的有效生长积温、Priestley-Taylor系数（实际蒸散与潜在蒸散的比值）、降水量、最暖月和最冷月平均气温之差。采用半峰宽法初步确定每个植物功能型的环境限定因子取值范围。并根据这套植物功能型及其环境参数建立了适宜于我国的生物群区体系，从而得到了我国的植物功能型-生物群区体系(the Chinese Plant functional Types and Biomes，CNPB)。 为了验证这套植物功能型-生物群区体系，将BIOME1和中国的植物功能型生物群区体系(CNPB)对中国植被在当前气候条件和未来气候情景下分布的模拟结果进行了比较。结果表明，这套体系可以更有效地模拟中国植被在当前和未来气候条件下的分布，特别是对青藏高原植被描述的详细程度有实质性的提高。

Probabilistic modelling of soil moisture dynamics of irrigated cropland in the North China Plain

A probabilistic soil moisture dynamic model is used to estimate the soil moisture probability distribution and plant water stress of irrigated cropland in the North China Plain. Soil moisture and meteorological data during the period of 1998 to 2003 were obtained from an irrigated cropland ecosystem with winter wheat and maize in the North China Plain to test the probabilistic soil moisture dynamic model. Results showed that the model was able to capture the soil moisture dynamics and estimate long-term water balance reasonably well when little soil water deficit existed. The prediction of mean plant water stress during winter wheat and maize growing season quantified the suitability of the wheat-maize rotation to the soil and climate environmental conditions in North China Plain under the impact of irrigation. Under the impact of precipitation fluctuations, there is no significant bimodality of the average soil moisture probability density function.

Solos da Rodovia Transamazônica.

1972

Quantitative estimates of glacial and Holocene temperature and precipitation change in lowland Amazonian Bolivia

Quantitative estimates of temperature and precipitation change during the late Pleistocene and Holocene have been difficult to obtain for much of the lowland Neotropics. Using two published lacustrine pollen records and a climate-vegetation model based on the modern abundance distributions of 154 Neotropical plant families, we demonstrate how family-level counts of fossil pollen can be used to quantitatively reconstruct tropical paleoclimate and provide needed information on historic patterns of climatic change. With this family-level analysis, we show that one area of the lowland tropics, northeastern Bolivia, experienced cooling (1–3 °C) and drying (400 mm/yr), relative to present, during the late Pleistocene (50,000–12,000 calendar years before present [cal. yr B.P.]). Immediately prior to the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM, ca. 21,000 cal. yr B.P.), we observe a distinct transition from cooler temperatures and variable precipitation to a period of warmer temperatures and relative dryness that extends to the middle Holocene (5000–3000 cal. yr B.P.). This prolonged reduction in precipitation occurs against the backdrop of increasing atmospheric CO2 concentrations, indicating that the presence of mixed savanna and dry-forest communities in northeastern Bolivia durng the LGM was not solely the result of low CO2 levels, as suggested previously, but also lower precipitation. The results of our analysis demonstrate the potential for using the distribution and abundance structure of modern Neotropical plant families to infer paleoclimate from the fossil pollen record.

Fire in the Earth System

Fire is an important component of the Earth System that is tightly coupled with climate, vegetation, biogeochemical cycles, and human activities. Observations of how fire regimes change on seasonal to millennial timescales are providing an improved understanding of the hierarchy of controls on fire regimes. Climate is the principal control on fire regimes, although human activities have had an increasing influence on the distribution and incidence of fire in recent centuries. Understanding of the controls and variability of fire also underpins the development of models, both conceptual and numerical, that allow us to predict how future climate and land-use changes might influence fire regimes. Although fires in fire-adapted ecosystems can be important for biodiversity and ecosystem function, positive effects are being increasingly outweighed by losses of ecosystem services. As humans encroach further into the natural habitat of fire, social and economic costs are also escalating. The prospect of near-term rapid and large climate changes, and the escalating costs of large wildfires, necessitates a radical re-thinking and the development of approaches to fire management that promote the more harmonious co-existence of fire and people.

Changes in fire regimes since the Last Glacial Maximum: an assessment based on a global synthesis and analysis of charcoal data

Fire activity has varied globally and continuously since the last glacial maximum (LGM) in response to long-term changes in global climate and shorter-term regional changes in climate, vegetation, and human land use. We have synthesized sedimentary charcoal records of biomass burning since the LGM and present global maps showing changes in fire activity for time slices during the past 21,000 years (as differences in charcoal accumulation values compared to pre-industrial). There is strong broad-scale coherence in fire activity after the LGM, but spatial heterogeneity in the signals increases thereafter. In North America, Europe and southern South America, charcoal records indicate less-than-present fire activity during the deglacial period, from 21,000 to ∼11,000 cal yr BP. In contrast, the tropical latitudes of South America and Africa show greater-than-present fire activity from ∼19,000 to ∼17,000 cal yr BP and most sites from Indochina and Australia show greater-than-present fire activity from 16,000 to ∼13,000 cal yr BP. Many sites indicate greater-than-present or near-present activity during the Holocene with the exception of eastern North America and eastern Asia from 8,000 to ∼3,000 cal yr BP, Indonesia and Australia from 11,000 to 4,000 cal yr BP, and southern South America from 6,000 to 3,000 cal yr BP where fire activity was less than present. Regional coherence in the patterns of change in fire activity was evident throughout the post-glacial period. These complex patterns can largely be explained in terms of large-scale climate controls modulated by local changes in vegetation and fuel load

A reorganização do espaço da sala de educação infantil: uma experiência concreta à luz da teoria histórico-cultural

Pós-graduação em Educação - FFC

Hydro-physical characterization of soils under tropical semi-deciduous forest

The study of the hydro-physical behavior in soils using toposequences is of great importance for better understanding the soil, water and vegetation relationships. This study aims to assess the hydro-physical and morphological characterization of soil from a toposequence in Galia, state of São Paulo, Brazil). The plot covers an area of 10.24 ha (320 × 320 m), located in a semi-deciduous seasonal forest. Based on ultra-detailed soil and topographic maps of the area, a representative transect from the soil in the plot was chosen. Five profiles were opened for the morphological description of the soil horizons, and hydro-physical and micromorphological analyses were performed to characterize the soil. Arenic Haplustult, Arenic Haplustalf and Aquertic Haplustalf were the soil types observed in the plot. The superficial horizons had lower density and greater hydraulic conductivity, porosity and water retention in lower tensions than the deeper horizons. In the sub-superficial horizons, greater water retention at higher tensions and lower hydraulic conductivity were observed, due to structure type and greater clay content. The differences observed in the water retention curves between the sandy E and the clay B horizons were mainly due to the size distribution, shape and type of soil pores.

Late Quaternary paleosols and their paleoenvironmental significance along the Andean piedmont, Eastern Bolivia

The Andean piedmont of eastern Bolivia is situated at the southern margin of Amazonia characterized by an overall humid climate regime with a marked contrast between the rainy and dry seasons. The nearby Subandean foothills deliver abundant sandy sediments to the piedmont, leading to a complex array of sediments and paleosol horizons. Within this setting, the presented study analyzes four profiles of paleosol-sediment-sequences along incised ephemeral streams near Santa Cruz de la Sierra with a focus on past pedogenic variability in the context of the regional late Quaternary geomorphic and environmental evolution. Based on field observations, micromorphological analysis, geochemical and clay mineralogical data five classes of paleosol horizons could be distinguished. The individual paleosol horizons as well as the sediments, in which they developed, were interpreted regarding their paleoenvironmental significance, taking into consideration the various controls on soil formation with particular focus on changes of local environmental conditions through time. Thus, three different pathways of soil formation were established. On the late Quaternary timescale, the results suggest a strong relation between paleoenvironmental conditions (climate, vegetation etc.), soil environment (soil water flow, micro-environment) and the type of paleosol horizons developed in the study area. The formation of “red beds” (Bw horizons) implies very dry soil environments under dominantly dry conditions, which seem to have prevailed in the study area some time before ∼ 18 cal ka BP. Moderately dry but markedly seasonal environmental conditions with a long dry season and strong seasonal contrasts in soil water flow could explain the formation of moderately developed Bwt horizons around ∼ 18 cal ka BP and much of the mid-Holocene. The formation of Bt horizons and/or clay lamellae in relation to intense neoformation of clay and dominant clay illuviation by soil water points to wet conditions similar to today, which have probably prevailed in the study area before ∼ 8 cal ka BP and since ∼ 5 cal ka BP.

Holocene biomass burning and global dynamics of the carbon cycle

Fire regimes have changed during the Holocene due to changes in climate, vegetation, and in human practices. Here, we hypothesise that changes in fire regime may have affected the global CO2 concentration in the atmosphere through the Holocene. Our data are based on quantitative reconstructions of biomass burning deduced from stratified charcoal records from Europe, and South-, Central- and North America, and Oceania to test the fire-carbon release hypothesis. In Europe the significant increase of fire activity is dated ≈6000 cal. yr ago. In north-eastern North America burning activity was greatest before 7500 years ago, very low between 7500–3000 years, and has been increasing since 3000 years ago. In tropical America, the pattern is more complex and apparently latitudinally zonal. Maximum burning occurred in the southern Amazon basin and in Central America during the middle Holocene, and during the last 2000 years in the northern Amazon basin. In Oceania, biomass burning has decreased since a maximum 5000 years ago. Biomass burning has broadly increased in the Northern and Southern hemispheres throughout the second half of the Holocene associated with changes in climate and human practices. Global fire indices parallel the increase of atmospheric CO2 concentration recorded in Antarctic ice cores. Future issues on carbon dynamics relatively to biomass burning are discussed to improve the quantitative reconstructions.