Influence of habitat on the reproductive ecology of the Amazonian palm, Mauritia flexuosa, in Roraima, Brazil

Although Mauritia flexuosa (Arecaceae) plays a pivotal role in the ecology and economy of the Amazon, and occurs in a variety of habitats, little is known about the influence of habitat on the reproductive biology of this palm. My dissertation focuses on the reproductive biology of M. flexuosa in three habitats in Roraima, Brazil: undisturbed forest, undisturbed forest-savanna ecotone, and savanna disturbed by plantations of the exotic tree, Acacia mangium. First, I calculated sex ratios and linked precipitation patterns with phenology. Sex ratios were female-biased. Precipitation was negatively associated with flowering, and positively associated with fruiting. Habitat appears to have no significant influence on phenology of M. flexuosa, although short-term climate variation may affect phenology of this species. Second, I examined floral biology, observed floral visitors, and performed exclusion experiments to determine the pollination system of M. flexuosa. Fruit set did not differ significantly between the visitor exclusion treatment and the control, but was significantly lowest in the wind + visitor exclusion treatment, suggesting that this dioecious palm is anemophilous, independent of habitat. Third, I identified the abiotic and biotic factors explaining variation in fruit mass, seed mass, seed number per fruit, and total fruit yield among habitats. Soil moisture and flooding during the wet season were the best predictors of fruit and seed output. The number of leaves, diameter at breast height, and height were all accurate predictors of reproductive output, but crown volume did not accurately predict fruit yields. Results re-evaluate traditional assumptions about wind-pollination in the tropics, and highlight abiotic and biotic factors responsible for variation in reproductive output of M. flexuosa, with implications for effective management of this palm. Finally, I interviewed harvesters and vendors to document the traditional knowledge and market dynamics of the fruit of M. flexuosa, buriti. Traditional knowledge corroborated results from scientific studies. Vendors argued that the price of buriti must increase, and must fluctuate with varying supply. With appropriate economic incentives to vendors/harvesters, Roraima may expand its market infrastructure for buriti, effectively stimulating the regional economy and practicing sustainable harvesting.

(Table 1) Relative abundance of planktonic foraminifers in ODP Hole 164-997A sediments

Hole 997A was drilled during Leg 164 of the Ocean Drilling Program at a depth of 2770 m on the topographic crest of the Blake Ridge in the western Atlantic Ocean. We report here an analysis of the faunal assemblages of planktonic foraminifers in a total of 91 samples (0.39-91.89 mbsf interval) spanning the last 2.15 m.y., latest Pliocene to Holocene. The abundant species, Globigerinoides ruber, Globigerinoides sacculifer, Neogloboquadrina dutertrei, Globorotalia inflata, and Globigerinita glutinata together exceed over ~70% of the total fauna. Each species exhibits fluctuations with amplitudes of 10%-20% or more. Despite their generally low abundance, the distinct presence/absence behavior of the Globorotalia menardii group is almost synchronous with glacial-interglacial climate cycles during the upper part of Brunhes Chron. The quantitative study and factor analysis of planktonic foraminiferal assemblages shows that the planktonic foraminiferal fauna in Hole 997A consists of four groups: warm water, subtropical gyre (mixed-layer species), gyre margin (thermocline/upwelling species), and subpolar assemblages. The subtropical gyre assemblage dominates throughout the studied section, whereas the abundance of gyre margin taxa strongly control the overall variability in faunal abundance at Site 997. In sediments older than the Olduvai Subchron, the planktonic foraminiferal faunas are characterized by fluctuations in both the subtropical gyre and gyre margin assemblages, similar to those in the Brunhes Chron. The upwelling/gyre margin fauna increased in abundance just before the Jaramillo Subchron and was dominant between 0.7 and 1.07 Ma. The transition from this gyre margin-dominated assemblage to an increase in abundance of the subtropical gyre and gyre margin species occurred around 0.7 Ma, near the Brunhes/Matuyama boundary. The presence of low-oxygen-tolerant benthic foraminifers, pyrite tubes, and abundant diatoms below the Brunhes/Matuyama boundary suggests decreased oxygenation of intermediate waters and more upwelling over the Blake-Bahama Outer Ridge, perhaps because of weaker Upper North Atlantic Deep Water ventilation. The changes in the relative composition of foraminifer assemblages took place at least twice, around 700 and 1000 ka, close to the ~930-ka switch from obliquity-forced climate variation to the 100-k.y. eccentricity cycle. The climate shift at 700 ka suggests a transition from relatively warmer conditions in the early Pleistocene to warm-cool oscillations in the Brunhes Chron.

¿Fue la crisis política del Occidente musulmán del siglo XIII debida a un cambio climático? Una aproximación histórica al fin del Periodo Cálido Medieval

Durante el siglo XIII se produjo una sucesión de revueltas que supuso la desaparición del Imperio almohade y su sustitución por poderes regionales en al-Andalus, el Magreb y el Magreb al-Aqsà. La historiografía ha presentado el surgimiento y pugna entre estos poderes como un fenómeno social, político e, incluso, cultural y religioso, con el que se ha podido explicar su aniquilación o marginalización. Este trabajo pretende contextualizar los hechos desde una perspectiva medioambiental, de forma que la desintegración del califato almohade, el surgimiento de aquellos poderes y la progresión de los reinos cristianos en la península ibérica puedan entenderse desde una visión global de cambio climático y una posible crisis agrícola.

Padronização e flexibilidade: proposta de um edifício tipo para uma escola técnica profissionalizante

Nowadays the acquisition of sustainable elements and concepts in construction has been increasingly discussed, improved and incorporated to buildings, since the sector directly interferes in the urban space and environment, representing environmental impact. In order to make a sustainable building (Green Building) it is vital to incorporate less damaging constructive practice, starting from the project until the operation of the enterprise, that means to consider an integrated process of conception, implementation, construction and operation. The more effective sustainable principles participation in architecture happens at the projecting step through minimal environment impact solutions. Among the issues varieties that goes with sustainability proposal of the buildings project, there were added to this work the elements that are directly attached to bioclimatic architecture, more specifically the climate variation, ventilation, lighting and sunlight, that directly affect the project conception. It is important to put in evidence that architecture role goes far beyond the simple activity of building spaces; it is the sequence of political, economic, social and cultural elements, having the users as the main apparatus to its materialization. Thereby this professional dissertation consists of an architecture draft for a professional and technological school in the Rio Grande do Norte State, this dissertation is based on the analysis of previous experience and the bioclimatic principles that implicate in building on hot and dry, hot and humid climates, and the use of strategic solutions that aim the optimization of natural light and ventilation

Padronização e flexibilidade: proposta de um edifício tipo para uma escola técnica profissionalizante

Nowadays the acquisition of sustainable elements and concepts in construction has been increasingly discussed, improved and incorporated to buildings, since the sector directly interferes in the urban space and environment, representing environmental impact. In order to make a sustainable building (Green Building) it is vital to incorporate less damaging constructive practice, starting from the project until the operation of the enterprise, that means to consider an integrated process of conception, implementation, construction and operation. The more effective sustainable principles participation in architecture happens at the projecting step through minimal environment impact solutions. Among the issues varieties that goes with sustainability proposal of the buildings project, there were added to this work the elements that are directly attached to bioclimatic architecture, more specifically the climate variation, ventilation, lighting and sunlight, that directly affect the project conception. It is important to put in evidence that architecture role goes far beyond the simple activity of building spaces; it is the sequence of political, economic, social and cultural elements, having the users as the main apparatus to its materialization. Thereby this professional dissertation consists of an architecture draft for a professional and technological school in the Rio Grande do Norte State, this dissertation is based on the analysis of previous experience and the bioclimatic principles that implicate in building on hot and dry, hot and humid climates, and the use of strategic solutions that aim the optimization of natural light and ventilation

Influence of Habitat on the Reproductive Ecology of the Amazonian Palm, Mauritia flexuosa, in Roraima, Brazil

Although Mauritia flexuosa (Arecaceae) plays a pivotal role in the ecology and economy of the Amazon, and occurs in a variety of habitats, little is known about the influence of habitat on the reproductive biology of this palm. My dissertation focuses on the reproductive biology of M. flexuosa in three habitats in Roraima, Brazil: undisturbed forest, undisturbed forest-savanna ecotone, and savanna disturbed by plantations of the exotic tree, Acacia mangium. First, I calculated sex ratios and linked precipitation patterns with phenology. Sex ratios were female-biased. Precipitation was negatively associated with flowering, and positively associated with fruiting. Habitat appears to have no significant influence on phenology of M. flexuosa, although short-term climate variation may affect phenology of this species. Second, I examined floral biology, observed floral visitors, and performed exclusion experiments to determine the pollination system of M. flexuosa. Fruit set did not differ significantly between the visitor exclusion treatment and the control, but was significantly lowest in the wind + visitor exclusion treatment, suggesting that this dioecious palm is anemophilous, independent of habitat. Third, I identified the abiotic and biotic factors explaining variation in fruit mass, seed mass, seed number per fruit, and total fruit yield among habitats. Soil moisture and flooding during the wet season were the best predictors of fruit and seed output. The number of leaves, diameter at breast height, and height were all accurate predictors of reproductive output, but crown volume did not accurately predict fruit yields. Results re-evaluate traditional assumptions about wind-pollination in the tropics, and highlight abiotic and biotic factors responsible for variation in reproductive output of M. flexuosa, with implications for effective management of this palm. Finally, I interviewed harvesters and vendors to document the traditional knowledge and market dynamics of the fruit of M. flexuosa, buriti. Traditional knowledge corroborated results from scientific studies. Vendors argued that the price of buriti must increase, and must fluctuate with varying supply. With appropriate economic incentives to vendors/harvesters, Roraima may expand its market infrastructure for buriti, effectively stimulating the regional economy and practicing sustainable harvesting.

Genetic variation for carbon isotope composition in Juglans regia L.: relationships with growth, phenology and climate of origin

Among the traits of breeding interest for the common walnut tree Juglans regia L., characteristics such as timing of budbreak and leaf fall, water-use efficiency and growth performance are regarded as being of utmost relevance in Mediterranean conditions. The authors evaluated intraspecific variation in $\delta$13C (carbon isotope composition, surrogate of intrinsic water-use efficiency, WUE$_{\rm i}$) for 22 J. regia families grown in a progeny test under supplementary irrigation, and investigated whether such variation correlated with climatic indicators of native habitats. The genetic relationships between $\delta$13C, growth and phenology were also assessed during two consecutive years. Overall, the most water-use-efficient families (i.e. with higher $\delta$13C), which originated mainly from drought-prone provenance regions which have a high vapour pressure deficit and low rainfall, exhibited less height growth and smaller DBH. Using a stepwise regression procedure, $\delta$13C was included as the main explanatory variable of genotypic variation in growth traits, together with growing season duration (for DBH in both years) and flushing (for height in 2007). It was concluded that WUE$_{\rm i}$ is largely unconnected to phenology effects in the explanation of growth performance for J. regia, therefore suggesting the opportunity of simultaneously selecting for low WUE$_{\rm i}$ and extended growing period to maximise productivity in non-water-limited environments.

Recent oppositely directed trends in solar climate forcings and the global mean surface air temperature. II. Different reconstructions of the total solar irradiance variation and dependence on response time scale

We have previously placed the solar contribution to recent global warming in context using observations and without recourse to climate models. It was shown that all solar forcings of climate have declined since 1987. The present paper extends that analysis to include the effects of the various time constants with which the Earth’s climate system might react to solar forcing. The solar input waveform over the past 100 years is defined using observed and inferred galactic cosmic ray fluxes, valid for either a direct effect of cosmic rays on climate or an effect via their known correlation with total solar irradiance (TSI), or for a combination of the two. The implications, and the relative merits, of the various TSI composite data series are discussed and independent tests reveal that the PMOD composite used in our previous paper is the most realistic. Use of the ACRIM composite, which shows a rise in TSI over recent decades, is shown to be inconsistent with most published evidence for solar influences on pre-industrial climate. The conclusions of our previous paper, that solar forcing has declined over the past 20 years while surface air temperatures have continued to rise, are shown to apply for the full range of potential time constants for the climate response to the variations in the solar forcings.

Variation in the global-scale impacts of climate change on crop productivity due to climate model uncertainty and adaptation

Crop production is inherently sensitive to fluctuations in weather and climate and is expected to be impacted by climate change. To understand how this impact may vary across the globe many studies have been conducted to determine the change in yield of several crops to expected changes in climate. Changes in climate are typically derived from a single to no more than a few General Circulation Models (GCMs). This study examines the uncertainty introduced to a crop impact assessment when 14 GCMs are used to determine future climate. The General Large Area Model for annual crops (GLAM) was applied over a global domain to simulate the productivity of soybean and spring wheat under baseline climate conditions and under climate conditions consistent with the 2050s under the A1B SRES emissions scenario as simulated by 14 GCMs. Baseline yield simulations were evaluated against global country-level yield statistics to determine the model's ability to capture observed variability in production. The impact of climate change varied between crops, regions, and by GCM. The spread in yield projections due to GCM varied between no change and a reduction of 50%. Without adaptation yield response was linearly related to the magnitude of local temperature change. Therefore, impacts were greatest for countries at northernmost latitudes where warming is predicted to be greatest. However, these countries also exhibited the greatest potential for adaptation to offset yield losses by shifting the crop growing season to a cooler part of the year and/or switching crop variety to take advantage of an extended growing season. The relative magnitude of impacts as simulated by each GCM was not consistent across countries and between crops. It is important, therefore, for crop impact assessments to fully account for GCM uncertainty in estimating future climates and to be explicit about assumptions regarding adaptation.

Latitudinal variation of the effect of aviation NOx emissions on atmospheric ozone and methane and related climate metrics

We evaluate the response to regional and latitudinal changes in aircraft NOx emissions using several climate metrics (radiative forcing (RF), Global Warming Potential (GWP), Global Temperature change Potential (GTP)). Global chemistry transport model integrations were performed with sustained perturbations in regional aircraft and aircraft-like NOx emissions. The RF due to the resulting ozone and methane changes is then calculated. We investigate the impact of emission changes for specific geographical regions (approximating to USA, Europe, India and China) and cruise altitude emission changes in discrete latitude bands covering both hemispheres. We find that lower latitude emission changes (per Tg N) cause ozone and methane RFs that are about a factor of 6 larger than those from higher latitude emission changes. The net RF is positive for all experiments. The meridional extent of the RF is larger for low latitude emissions. GWPs for all emission changes are positive, with tropical emissions having the largest values; the sign of the GTP depends on the choice of time horizon.

Individualistic sensitivities and exposure to climate change explain variation in species' distribution and abundance changes

The responses of animals and plants to recent climate change vary greatly from species to species, but attempts to understand this variation have met with limited success. This has led to concerns that predictions of responses are inherently uncertain because of the complexity of interacting drivers and biotic interactions. However, we show for an exemplar group of 155 Lepidoptera species that about 60% of the variation among species in their abundance trends over the past four decades can be explained by species-specific exposure and sensitivity to climate change. Distribution changes were less well predicted, but nonetheless, up to 53% of the variation was explained. We found that species vary in their overall sensitivity to climate and respond to different components of the climate despite ostensibly experiencing the same climate changes. Hence, species have undergone different levels of population “forcing” (exposure), driving variation among species in their national-scale abundance and distribution trends. We conclude that variation in species’ responses to recent climate change may be more predictable than previously recognized.

Variation of System Performance with Design and Climate for Combisystems in Sweden

In Sweden, 90% of the solar heating systems are solar domestic hot water and heating systems (SDHW&H), so called combisystems. These generally supply most of the domestic hot water needs during the summer and have enough capacity to supply some energy to the heating system during spring and autumn. This paper describes a standard Swedish combisystem and how the output from it varies with heating load, climate within Sweden, and how it can be increased with improved system design. A base case is defined using the standard combi- system, a modern Swedish single family house and the climate of Stockholm. Using the simulation program Trnsys, parametric studies have been performed on the base case and improved system designs. The solar fraction could be increased from 17.1% for the base case to 22.6% for the best system design, given the same system size, collector type and load. A short analysis of the costs of changed system design is given, showing that payback times for additional investment are from 5-8 years. Measurements on system components in the laboratory have been used to verify the simulation models used. More work is being carried out in order to find even better system designs, and further improvements in system performance are expected.