Late Quaternary environmental change in the interior South American tropics: new insight from leaf wax stable isotopes

Stable isotope analysis of leaf waxes in a sediment core from Laguna La Gaiba, a shallow lake located at the Bolivian margin of the Pantanal wetlands, provides new perspective on vegetation and climate change in the lowland interior tropics of South America over the past 40,000 years. The carbon isotopic compositions (δ13C) of long-chain n-alkanes reveal large shifts between C3-and C4-dominated vegetation communities since the last glacial period, consistent with landscape reconstructions generated with pollen data from the same sediment core. Leaf wax δ13C values during the last glacial period reflect an open landscape composed of C4grasses and C3herbs from 41–20ka. A peak in C4abundance during the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM, ∼21ka) suggests drier or more seasonal conditions relative to the earlier glacial period, while the development of a C3-dominated forest community after 20 ka points to increased humidity during the last deglaciation. Within the Holocene, large changes in the abundance of C4 vegetation indicate a transition from drier or more seasonal conditions during the early/mid-Holocene to wetter conditions in the late Holocene coincident with increasing austral summer insolation. Strong negative correlations between leaf wax δ13C and δD values over the entire record indicate that the majority of variability in leaf wax δD at this site can be explained by variability in the magnitude of biosynthetic fractionation by different vegetation types rather than changes in meteoric water δD signatures. However, positive δD deviations from the observed δ13C–δD trends are consistent with more enriched source water and drier or more seasonal conditions during the early/mid-Holocene and LGM. Overall, our record adds to evidence of varying influence of glacial boundary conditions and orbital forcing on South American Summer Monsoon precipitation in different regions of the South American tropics. Moreover, the relationships between leaf wax stable isotopes and pollen data observed at this site underscore the complementary nature of pollen and leaf wax δ13C data for reconstructing past vegetation changes and the potentially large effects of such changes on leaf wax δD signatures.

Evaluating the existence of structural change in the brazilian term structure of interest: evidence based on cointegration models with structural break

This paper investigates whether there is evidence of structural change in the Brazilian term structure of interest rates. Multivariate cointegration techniques are used to verify this evidence. Two econometrics models are estimated. The rst one is a Vector Autoregressive Model with Error Correction Mechanism (VECM) with smooth transition in the deterministic coe¢ cients (Ripatti and Saikkonen [25]). The second one is a VECM with abrupt structural change formulated by Hansen [13]. Two datasets were analysed. The rst one contains a nominal interest rate with maturity up to three years. The second data set focuses on maturity up to one year. The rst data set focuses on a sample period from 1995 to 2010 and the second from 1998 to 2010. The frequency is monthly. The estimated models suggest the existence of structural change in the Brazilian term structure. It was possible to document the existence of multiple regimes using both techniques for both databases. The risk premium for di¤erent spreads varied considerably during the earliest period of both samples and seemed to converge to stable and lower values at the end of the sample period. Long-term risk premiums seemed to converge to inter-national standards, although the Brazilian term structure is still subject to liquidity problems for longer maturities.

Muscle delta C-13 change in Nile tilapia (Oreochromis niloticus): Effects of growth and carbon turnover

The contribution of growth and turnover to the muscle delta C-13 change process was investigated using mathematical models which associate delta C-13 change to time of intake of a new diet or increase in body mass. Two groups of Nile tilapia (Oreochromis niloticus) were fed on diets based on C3 (sigma C-13 = - 25.64 +/- 0.06 parts per thousand) or C4 (delta C-13= -16.01 +/- 0.06 parts per thousand) photosynthetic cycle plants to standardize the muscle delta C-13. After establishing the carbon isotopic equilibrium, fish (mean mass 24.12 +/- 6.79 g) then received the other treatment diet until a new carbon isotopic equilibrium could be established, characterizing T1 (C3-C4) and T2 (C4-C3) treatments. No significant differences were observed in fish productive performance. Good fits were obtained for the models that associated the delta C-13 change to time, resulting in carbon half-life values of 23.33 days for T1 and 25.96 days for T2. Based on values found for the muscle delta C-13 change rate from growth (0.0263 day(-1) and 0.0254 day(-1)) and turnover (0.0034 day(-1) and 0.0013 day(-1)), our results indicate that most of the delta C-13 change could be attributed to growth. The application of model that associated the delta C-13 change to body mass increase seems to produce results with no apparent biological explanation. The delta C-13 change rate could directly reflect the daily ration and growth rate, and consequently the isotopic change rates of carbon and other tissue elements can be properly used to assess different factors that may interfere in nutrient utilization and growth. (c) 2006 Published by Elsevier B.V.

The change in magnetic properties of Fe3Al compound due to substitution of Fe by Co

The magnetic moment using self-consistent spin-polarized energy band calculations of Fe3Al and Fe2CoAl Heusler phases are presented. These results are compared with the experimental values obtained from the magnetization curves of these materials. (C) 2004 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

The assessment of change in rural landscape and the analysis of the driving forces. Proposal of a spatial model for the rural built environment

The presented study carried out an analysis on rural landscape changes. In particular the study focuses on the understanding of driving forces acting on the rural built environment using a statistical spatial model implemented through GIS techniques. It is well known that the study of landscape changes is essential for a conscious decision making in land planning. From a bibliography review results a general lack of studies dealing with the modeling of rural built environment and hence a theoretical modelling approach for such purpose is needed. The advancement in technology and modernity in building construction and agriculture have gradually changed the rural built environment. In addition, the phenomenon of urbanization of a determined the construction of new volumes that occurred beside abandoned or derelict rural buildings. Consequently there are two types of transformation dynamics affecting mainly the rural built environment that can be observed: the conversion of rural buildings and the increasing of building numbers. It is the specific aim of the presented study to propose a methodology for the development of a spatial model that allows the identification of driving forces that acted on the behaviours of the building allocation. In fact one of the most concerning dynamic nowadays is related to an irrational expansion of buildings sprawl across landscape. The proposed methodology is composed by some conceptual steps that cover different aspects related to the development of a spatial model: the selection of a response variable that better describe the phenomenon under study, the identification of possible driving forces, the sampling methodology concerning the collection of data, the most suitable algorithm to be adopted in relation to statistical theory and method used, the calibration process and evaluation of the model. A different combination of factors in various parts of the territory generated favourable or less favourable conditions for the building allocation and the existence of buildings represents the evidence of such optimum. Conversely the absence of buildings expresses a combination of agents which is not suitable for building allocation. Presence or absence of buildings can be adopted as indicators of such driving conditions, since they represent the expression of the action of driving forces in the land suitability sorting process. The existence of correlation between site selection and hypothetical driving forces, evaluated by means of modeling techniques, provides an evidence of which driving forces are involved in the allocation dynamic and an insight on their level of influence into the process. GIS software by means of spatial analysis tools allows to associate the concept of presence and absence with point futures generating a point process. Presence or absence of buildings at some site locations represent the expression of these driving factors interaction. In case of presences, points represent locations of real existing buildings, conversely absences represent locations were buildings are not existent and so they are generated by a stochastic mechanism. Possible driving forces are selected and the existence of a causal relationship with building allocations is assessed through a spatial model. The adoption of empirical statistical models provides a mechanism for the explanatory variable analysis and for the identification of key driving variables behind the site selection process for new building allocation. The model developed by following the methodology is applied to a case study to test the validity of the methodology. In particular the study area for the testing of the methodology is represented by the New District of Imola characterized by a prevailing agricultural production vocation and were transformation dynamic intensively occurred. The development of the model involved the identification of predictive variables (related to geomorphologic, socio-economic, structural and infrastructural systems of landscape) capable of representing the driving forces responsible for landscape changes.. The calibration of the model is carried out referring to spatial data regarding the periurban and rural area of the study area within the 1975-2005 time period by means of Generalised linear model. The resulting output from the model fit is continuous grid surface where cells assume values ranged from 0 to 1 of probability of building occurrences along the rural and periurban area of the study area. Hence the response variable assesses the changes in the rural built environment occurred in such time interval and is correlated to the selected explanatory variables by means of a generalized linear model using logistic regression. Comparing the probability map obtained from the model to the actual rural building distribution in 2005, the interpretation capability of the model can be evaluated. The proposed model can be also applied to the interpretation of trends which occurred in other study areas, and also referring to different time intervals, depending on the availability of data. The use of suitable data in terms of time, information, and spatial resolution and the costs related to data acquisition, pre-processing, and survey are among the most critical aspects of model implementation. Future in-depth studies can focus on using the proposed model to predict short/medium-range future scenarios for the rural built environment distribution in the study area. In order to predict future scenarios it is necessary to assume that the driving forces do not change and that their levels of influence within the model are not far from those assessed for the time interval used for the calibration.

Intersection of Tradition and Need of Change in Romanian Child Protection System

The reconstruction of the child protection system in the post-communist period so as to meet professional standards while responding to the needs of children is an enormous task. In order to understand the features of the current stage of the development of the Romanian child protection system and to evaluate its trends towards change, Roth-Szamoskozi analysed data from scientific literature and collected statistics to document the evolution of the child-protection structure. Empirical data collection using qualitative methods (content analysis of documents and interviews with staff) were designed to reflect the degree to which child welfare laws correspond to internationally accepted regulations and to analyse the attitudes of those working in the field at different decision-making levels. An experiment with a group of 12 students showed that there have been basic changes in the legal framework of Romanian child welfare. Students could see that the required principles exist in the new Romanian child protection law, but also identified areas which are still inadequately represented. 61 staff members working in child welfare agencies (both state and non-governmental) were also interviewed, using a systematic, circular interview. Using the criteria of competence and the existence of specific social goals, professionalism in solving social problems and respect for social-work values, the 30 non-governmental organisations were divided into three categories. The first (7 organisations) are active in the area, know the law and are fairly professional, the second (5) are motivated in their work with specific problems, but with no great competence. The 18 organisations in the third group have no competence in the social field and in issues concerning children and do only charitable work. The state agencies are still dominated by routine, but there were many staff members who were developing reform and strategic roles and were actively directing the system towards change. Many staff members in both governmental and non-governmental organisations were directing the system towards a stress on intervention in the interests of the child in the context of its family. Roth-Szamoskozi found that staff members felt the need of a more accurate evaluation system which would enable them to show their results more clearly.

Changing Values in a Transitional Period

This project examined the change in values in the still unfinished transitional period in Serbia during the 1990s and compared it with Greece in the same period. During this period the social and political transition affected the ruling value system primarily through changes in the modes of the production and representation of reality. The most remarkable trait of this period in Serbia is the parallel and interweaving existence of different value systems. The very perception of reality has been blurred by the emergence of a very complex technical and ideological structure. Reality is presented by and through extensions and additions, the models of which are language and media. With the development of media technology and global communication and information systems, representation has become the only available reality. This enables the media to overtly and unlimitedly intervene in reality, to manage and change it without constraint and thus have a direct impact on values. The difference between public and private is abolished, so the media start promoting exclusive collective values. However, since the collective thus loses its counterpart, it itself needs to be redefined. This confusion of values make the possible results of their change uncertain. It will either open up a space for multiculturalism and social pluralism and thus completely replace the old systems of values, or result in an indefinite survival of different, often contradictory, value systems and conceptions of reality, which often lead to all forms of exclusivity and intolerance.

Does cigarette smoking modify the association between change in body mass index during young adulthood and risk of coronary mortality during middle-age in men? Twenty-five year follow-up results from the Chicago Western Electric Study

Many persons in the U.S. gain weight during young adulthood, and the prevalence of obesity has been increasing among young adults. Although obesity and physical inactivity are generally recognized as risk factors for coronary heart disease (CHD), the magnitude of their effect on risk may have been seriously underestimated due to failure to adequately handle the problem of cigarette smoking. Since cigarette smoking causes weight loss, physically inactive cigarette smokers may remain relatively lean because they smoke cigarettes. We hypothesize cigarette smoking modifies the association between weight gain during young adulthood and risk of coronary heart disease during middle age, and that the true effect of weight gain during young adulthood on risk of CHD can be assessed only in persons who have not smoked cigarettes. Specifically, we hypothesize that weight gain during young adulthood is positively associated with risk of CHD during middle-age in nonsmokers but that the association is much smaller or absent entirely among cigarette smokers. The purpose of this study was to test this hypothesis. The population for analysis was comprised of 1,934 middle-aged, employed men whose average age at the baseline examination was 48.7 years. Information collected at the baseline examinations in 1958 and 1959 included recalled weight at age 20, present weight, height, smoking status, and other CHD risk factors. To decrease the effect of intraindividual variation, the mean values of the 1958 and 1959 baseline examinations were used in analyses. Change in body mass index ($\Delta$BMI) during young adulthood was the primary exposure variable and was measured as BMI at baseline (kg/m$\sp2)$ minus BMI at age 20 (kg/m$\sp2).$ Proportional hazards regression analysis was used to generate relative risks of CHD mortality by category of $\Delta$BMI and cigarette smoking status after adjustment for age, family history of CVD, major organ system disease, BMI at age 20, and number of cigarettes smoked per day. Adjustment was not performed for systolic blood pressure or total serum cholesterol as these were regarded as intervening variables. Vital status was known for all men on the 25th anniversary of their baseline examinations. 705 deaths (including 319 CHD deaths) occurred over 40,136 person-years of experience. $\Delta$BMI was positively associated with risk of CHD mortality in never-smokers, but not in ever-smokers (p for interaction = 0.067). For never-smokers with $\Delta$BMI of stable, low gain, moderate gain, and high gain, adjusted relative risks were 1.00, 1.62, 1.61, and 2.78, respectively (p for trend = 0.010). For ever-smokers, with $\Delta$BMI of stable, low gain, moderate gain, and high gain, adjusted relative risks were 1.00, 0.74, 1.07, and 1.06, respectively (p for trend = 0.422). These results support the research hypothesis that cigarette smoking modifies the association between weight gain and CHD mortality. Current estimates of the magnitude of effect of obesity and physical inactivity on risk of coronary mortality may have been seriously underestimated due to inadequate handling of cigarette smoking. ^

Local Rates of Ice-Sheet Thickness Change in Greenland

The rate of ice-sheet thickness change is calculated for 10 sites in Greenland by comparing measured values of ice vertical velocity and snow-accumulation rate. Vertical velocities are derived from repeat surveys of markers using precision global positioning system techniques, and accumulation rates are determined from stratigraphic analysis of firn cores. The results apply to time-scales covered by the firn-core records, which in most cases are a few decades. A spectrum of thickness-change rates is obtained, ranging from substantial thinning to slow thickening. The sites where ice-sheet thinning is indicated are located near the ice-sheet margin or in outlet glacier catchments. Interior and high-elevation sites are predominantly in balance or thickening slowly. Uncertainties in the rates of thickness change are dominated by errors in the determination of accumulation rates. The results of this work are broadly comparable with regional estimates of mass balance obtained from the analysis of catchment input vs discharge.

The dating of dipterocarp tree rings: establishing a record of carbon cycling and climatic change in the tropics

In a first step to obtain a proxy record of past climatic events (including the El Ni (n) over tildeo-Southern Oscillation) in the normally aseasonal tropical environment of Sabah, a radial segment from a recently fallen dipterocarp (Shorea Superba) was radiocarbon dated and subjected to carbon isotope analysis. The high-precision radiocarbon results fell into the ambiguous modern plateau where several calibrated dates can exist for each sample. Dating was achieved by wiggle matching using a Bayesian approach to calibration. Using the defined growth characteristics of Shorea superba, probability density distributions were calculated and improbable dates rejected. It was found that the tree most likely started growing around AD 1660-1685. A total of 173 apparent growth increments were measured and, therefore, it could be determined that the tree formed one ring approximately every two years. Stable carbon isotope values were obtained from resin-extracted wholewood from each ring. Carbon cycling is evident in the `juvenile effect', resulting from the assimilation of respired carbon dioxide and lower light levels below the canopy, and in the `anthropogenic effect' caused by increased industrial activity in the late-nineteenth and twentieth centuries. This study demonstrates that palaeoenvironmental information can be obtained from trees growing in aseasonal environments, where climatic conditions prevent the formation of well-defined annual rings.

The change in hydrogen bond strength accompanying charge rearrangement: Implications for enzymatic catalysis

The equilibrium for formation of the intramolecular hydrogen bond (KHB) in a series of substituted salicylate monoanions was investigated as a function of ΔpKa, the difference between the pKa values of the hydrogen bond donor and acceptor, in both water and dimethyl sulfoxide. The dependence of log KHB upon ΔpKa is linear in both solvents, but is steeper in dimethyl sulfoxide (slope = 0.73) than in water (slope = 0.05). Thus, hydrogen bond strength can undergo substantially larger increases in nonaqueous media than aqueous solutions as the charge density on the donor or acceptor atom increases. These results support a general mechanism for enzymatic catalysis, in which hydrogen bonding to a substrate is strengthened as charge rearranges in going from the ground state to the transition state; the strengthening of the hydrogen bond would be greater in a nonaqueous enzymatic active site than in water, thus providing a rate enhancement for an enzymatic reaction relative to the solution reaction. We suggest that binding energy of an enzyme is used to fix the substrate in the low-dielectric active site, where the strengthening of the hydrogen bond in the course of a reaction is increased.