Projection de la mortalité aux âges avancées au Canada : comparaison de trois modèles

Mémoire numérisé par la Division de la gestion de documents et des archives de l'Université de Montréal

Neonatal mortality in intensive care units of Central Brazil

OBJECTIVE: To identify potential prognostic factors for neonatal mortality among newborns referred to intensive care units. METHODS: A live-birth cohort study was carried out in Goiânia, Central Brazil, from November 1999 to October 2000. Linked birth and infant death certificates were used to ascertain the cohort of live born infants. An additional active surveillance system of neonatal-based mortality was implemented. Exposure variables were collected from birth and death certificates. The outcome was survivors (n=713) and deaths (n=162) in all intensive care units in the study period. Cox's proportional hazards model was applied and a Receiver Operating Characteristic curve was used to compare the performance of statistically significant variables in the multivariable model. Adjusted mortality rates by birth weight and 5-min Apgar score were calculated for each intensive care unit. RESULTS: Low birth weight and 5-min Apgar score remained independently associated to death. Birth weight equal to 2,500g had 0.71 accuracy (95% CI: 0.65-0.77) for predicting neonatal death (sensitivity =72.2%). A wide variation in the mortality rates was found among intensive care units (9.5-48.1%) and two of them remained with significant high mortality rates even after adjusting for birth weight and 5-min Apgar score. CONCLUSIONS: This study corroborates birth weight as a sensitive screening variable in surveillance programs for neonatal death and also to target intensive care units with high mortality rates for implementing preventive actions and interventions during the delivery period.

ACCM/PALS haemodynamic support guidelines for paediatric septic shock: an outcomes comparison with and without monitoring central venous oxygen saturation

Introduction: The ACCM/PALS guidelines address early correction of paediatric septic shock using conventional measures. In the evolution of these recommendations, indirect measures of the balance between systemic oxygen delivery and demands using central venous or superior vena cava oxygen saturation ( ScvO(2) >= 70%) in a goal-directed approach have been added. However, while these additional goal-directed endpoints are based on evidence-based adult studies, the extrapolation to the paediatric patient remains unvalidated. Objective: The purpose of this study was to compare treatment according to ACCM/PALS guidelines, performed with and without ScvO(2) goal-directed therapy, on the morbidity and mortality rate of children with severe sepsis and septic shock. Design, participants and interventions: Children and adolescents with severe sepsis or fluid-refractory septic shock were randomly assigned to ACCM/PALS with or without ScvO(2) goal-directed resuscitation. Measurements: Twenty-eight-day mortality was the primary endpoint. Results: Of the 102 enrolled patients, 51 received ACCM/PALS with ScvO(2) goal-directed therapy and 51 received ACCM/PALS without ScvO(2) goal-directed therapy. ScvO(2) goal-directed therapy resulted in less mortality ( 28-day mortality 11.8% vs. 39.2%, p = 0.002), and fewer new organ dysfunctions ( p = 0.03). ScvO(2) goal-directed therapy resulted in more crystalloid ( 28 ( 20-40) vs. 5 ( 0-20) ml/kg, p < 0.0001), blood transfusion ( 45.1% vs. 15.7%, p = 0.002) and inotropic ( 29.4% vs. 7.8%, p = 0.01) support in the first 6 h. Conclusions: This study supports the current ACCM/PALS guidelines. Goal-directed therapy using the endpoint of a ScvO(2) = 70% has a significant and additive impact on the outcome of children and adolescents with septic shock.

Neonatal endotoxin exposure changes neuroendocrine, cardiovascular function and mortality during polymicrobial sepsis in adult rats

Our aim was to investigate whether neonatal LPS challenge may improve hormonal, cardiovascular response and mortality, this being a beneficial adaptation when adult rats are submitted to polymicrobial sepsis by cecal ligation and puncture (CLP). Fourteen days after birth, pups received an intraperitoneal injection of lipopolysaccharide (LPS; 100 mu g/kg) or saline. After 8-12 weeks, they were submitted to CLP, decapitated 4,6 or 24 h after surgery and blood was collected for vasopressin (AVP), corticosterone and nitrate measurement, while AVP contents were measured in neurohypophysis, supra-optic (SON) and paraventricular (PVN) nuclei. Moreover, rats had their mean arterial pressure (MAP) and heart rate (HR) evaluated, and mortality and bacteremia were determined at 24 h. Septic animals with neonatal LPS exposure had higher plasma AVP and corticosterone levels, and higher c-Fos expression in SON and PVN at 24 h after surgery when compared to saline treated rats. The LPS pretreated group showed increased AVP content in SON and PVN at 6 h, while we did not observe any change in neurohypophyseal AVP content. The nitrate levels were significantly reduced in plasma at 6 and 24 h after surgery, and in both hypothalamic nuclei only at 6 h. Septic animals with neonatal LPS exposure showed increase in MAP during the initial phase of sepsis, but HR was not different from the neonatal saline group. Furthermore, neonatally LPS exposed rats showed a significant decrease in mortality rate as well as in bacteremia. These data suggest that neonatal LPS challenge is able to promote beneficial effects on neuroendocrine and cardiovascular responses to polymicrobial sepsis in adulthood. (C) 2011 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Impact of preoperative central neurologic dysfunction on patients undergoing emergency surgery for type a dissection.

BACKGROUND: Preoperative central neurologic deficits in the context of acute type A dissection are a complex comorbidity and difficult to handle. The aim this study was to analyze this subgroup of patients by comparing them with neurologically asymptomatic patients with type A dissection. Results may help the surgeon in preoperative risk assessment and thereby aid in the decision-making process. METHODS: We reviewed the data of patients admitted for acute type A dissection during the period from 1999 to 2010. Associated risk factors, time to surgery from admission, extension of the dissection, localization of central nervous ischemic lesions, and the influence of perioperative brain protective strategies were analyzed in a comparison of preoperative neurologically deficient to nondeficient patients. RESULTS: Forty-seven (24.5%) of a total of 192 patients had new-onset central neurologic symptoms prior to surgery. Concomitant myocardial infarction (OR 4.9, 95% CI 1.6-15.3, P = 0.006), renal failure (OR 5.9, 95% CI 1.1-32.8, P = 0.04), dissected carotid arteries (OR 9.2, 95% CI 2.4-34.7, P = 0.001), and late admission to surgery at >6 hours after symptom onset (OR 2.7, 95% CI 1.1-6.8, P = 0.04) were observed more frequently in neurologically deficient patients. These patients had a higher 30-day in-hospital mortality on univariate analysis (P = 0.01) and a higher rate of new postoperative neurologic deficits (OR 9.2, 95% CI 2.4-34.7, P = 0.02). Neurologic survivors had an equal hospital stay, and 67% of them had improved symptoms. CONCLUSIONS: The predominance of neurologic symptoms at admission may be responsible for an initial misdiagnosis. The concurrent central nervous system ischemia and myocardial infarction explains a higher mortality rate and a more extensive "character" of the disease. Neurologically deficient patients are at higher risk of developing new postoperative neurologic symptoms, but prognosis for the neurologic evolution of survivors is generally favorable.

Spatio-temporal trends of mortality in small areas of Southern Spain

Background: Most mortality atlases show static maps from count data aggregated over time. This procedure has several methodological problems and serious limitations for decision making in Public Health. The evaluation of health outcomes, including mortality, should be approached from a dynamic time perspective that is specific for each gender and age group. At the moment, researches in Spain do not provide a dynamic image of the population’s mortality status from a spatio-temporal point of view. The aim of this paper is to describe the spatial distribution of mortality from all causes in small areas of Andalusia (Southern Spain) and evolution over time from 1981 to 2006. Methods: A small-area ecological study was devised using the municipality as the unit for analysis. Two spatiotemporal hierarchical Bayesian models were estimated for each age group and gender. One of these was used to estimate the specific mortality rate, together with its time trends, and the other to estimate the specific rate ratio for each municipality compared with Spain as a whole. Results: More than 97% of the municipalities showed a diminishing or flat mortality trend in all gender and age groups. In 2006, over 95% of municipalities showed male and female mortality specific rates similar or significantly lower than Spanish rates for all age groups below 65. Systematically, municipalities in Western Andalusia showed significant male and female mortality excess from 1981 to 2006 only in age groups over 65. Conclusions: The study shows a dynamic geographical distribution of mortality, with a different pattern for each year, gender and age group. This information will contribute towards a reflection on the past, present and future of mortality in Andalusia.

Social differences in avoidable mortality between small areas of 15 European cities: an ecological study

Health and inequalities in health among inhabitants of European cities are of major importance for European public health and there is great interest in how different health care systems in Europe perform in the reduction of health inequalities. However, evidence on the spatial distribution of cause-specific mortality across neighbourhoods of European cities is scarce. This study presents maps of avoidable mortality in European cities and analyses differences in avoidable mortality between neighbourhoods with different levels of deprivation. Methods: We determined the level of mortality from 14 avoidable causes of death for each neighbourhood of 15 large cities in different European regions. To address the problems associated with Standardised Mortality Ratios for small areas we smooth them using the Bayesian model proposed by Besag, York and Mollié. Ecological regression analysis was used to assess the association between social deprivation and mortality. Results: Mortality from avoidable causes of death is higher in deprived neighbourhoods and mortality rate ratios between areas with different levels of deprivation differ between gender and cities. In most cases rate ratios are lower among women. While Eastern and Southern European cities show higher levels of avoidable mortality, the association of mortality with social deprivation tends to be higher in Northern and lower in Southern Europe. Conclusions: There are marked differences in the level of avoidable mortality between neighbourhoods of European cities and the level of avoidable mortality is associated with social deprivation. There is no systematic difference in the magnitude of this association between European cities or regions. Spatial patterns of avoidable mortality across small city areas can point to possible local problems and specific strategies to reduce health inequality which is important for the development of urban areas and the well-being of their inhabitants

High female mortality resulting in herd collapse in free-ranging domesticated reindeer (Rangifer tarandus tarandus) in Sweden

Reindeer herding in Sweden is a form of pastoralism practised by the indigenous Sami population. The economy is mainly based on meat production. Herd size is generally regulated by harvest in order not to overuse grazing ranges and keep a productive herd. Nonetheless, herd growth and room for harvest is currently small in many areas. Negative herd growth and low harvest rate were observed in one of two herds in a reindeer herding community in Central Sweden. The herds (A and B) used the same ranges from April until the autumn gathering in October-December, but were separated on different ranges over winter. Analyses of capture-recapture for 723 adult female reindeer over five years (2007-2012) revealed high annual losses (7.1% and 18.4%, for herd A and B respectively). A continuing decline in the total reindeer number in herd B demonstrated an inability to maintain the herd size in spite of a very small harvest. An estimated breakpoint for when herd size cannot be kept stable confirmed that the observed female mortality rate in herd B represented a state of herd collapse. Lower calving success in herd B compared to A indicated differences in winter foraging conditions. However, we found only minor differences in animal body condition between the herds in autumn. We found no evidence that a lower autumn body mass generally increased the risk for a female of dying from one autumn to the next. We conclude that the prime driver of the on-going collapse of herd B is not high animal density or poor body condition. Accidents or disease seem unlikely as major causes of mortality. Predation, primarily by lynx and wolverine, appears to be the most plausible reason for the high female mortality and state of collapse in the studied reindeer herding community.

Sistema de produção misto de caprino na região central do estado do Rio Grande do Norte

This study aimed to evaluate the performance and profitability of Canindé goats kept under semi-intensive management in mix farming system. 84 animals were used, being 81 does e three bucks.. The means of fertility rate at parturition, prolificacy and percentages of pregnant, kid survival and reproductive rate were compared by Tukey test at significance level of 5.0%. The kid weights from birth to weaning were submitted to variance analysis considering sex and birth type and the means were compared by Tukey test at 5.0% of significance. The percentages of fertility rate by ultrassographic were 91.36 and parturition 74.84. The prolificacy was 1.53. Independently of sex the mortality rate of kids from birth to weaning was 12.3. The average weights of offspring were 2.11 and 1.92 kg and 6.74 and 6.84 kg for male and female offspring at birth and weaning, in this order. The average weights of kids, meaning PN, P28, P56, P63, in the first season of kidding were 2.11 ± 0.46 kg, 3.63 ± 1.04 kg, 5.96 ± 158 kg and 6.74 ± 1.79 kg. There was significant differences (P<0,05) only to birth weight of kids sons of buck 135. However, the fertility at parturition for first and second breeding seasons (BS) were 87.65 and 62.96, respectively (P<0.05). The prolificacy was 1.58 and 1.47 to first and second BS in this order. The percentages of offspring survival from birth to weaning, to first and second BS were 92.86 and 80.00, respectively. From the first BS the reproduction rate was 1.28 while in the second was 0.74. After weaning the duration of lactation was 104 days to first breeding parturition and 38 days in the second one. The total milk production was 853.50 kg. The kids weight gain was influenced by season of year, wet and dry and buck (P<0.05). Were concluded that the seasons of year when breeding season and parturition occur strongly affected the productive performance and profitability of production system

The safe motherhood referral system to reduce cesarean sections and perinatal mortality - a cross-sectional study [1995-2006]

Background: In 2000, the eight Millennium Development Goals (MDGs) set targets for reducing child mortality and improving maternal health by 2015.Objective: To evaluate the results of a new education and referral system for antenatal/intrapartum care as a strategy to reduce the rates of Cesarean sections (C-sections) and maternal/perinatal mortality.Methods: Design: Cross-sectional study. Setting: Department of Gynecology and Obstetrics, Botucatu Medical School, São Paulo State University/UNESP, Brazil. Population: 27,387 delivering women and 27,827 offspring. Data collection: maternal and perinatal data between 1995 and 2006 at the major level III and level II hospitals in Botucatu, Brazil following initiation of a safe motherhood education and referral system. Main outcome measures: Yearly rates of C-sections, maternal (/100,000 LB) and perinatal (/1000 births) mortality rates at both hospitals. Data analysis: Simple linear regression models were adjusted to estimate the referral system's annual effects on the total number of deliveries, C-section and perinatal mortality ratios in the two hospitals. The linear regression were assessed by residual analysis (Shapiro-Wilk test) and the influence of possible conflicting observations was evaluated by a diagnostic test (Leverage), with p < 0.05.Results: Over the time period evaluated, the overall C-section rate was 37.3%, there were 30 maternal deaths (maternal mortality ratio = 109.5/100,000 LB) and 660 perinatal deaths (perinatal mortality rate = 23.7/1000 births). The C-section rate decreased from 46.5% to 23.4% at the level II hospital while remaining unchanged at the level III hospital. The perinatal mortality rate decreased from 9.71 to 1.66/1000 births and from 60.8 to 39.6/1000 births at the level II and level III hospital, respectively. Maternal mortality ratios were 16.3/100,000 LB and 185.1/100,000 LB at the level II and level III hospitals. There was a shift from direct to indirect causes of maternal mortality.Conclusions: This safe motherhood referral system was a good strategy in reducing perinatal mortality and direct causes of maternal mortality and decreasing the overall rate of C-sections.

MORTALITY IN THE MEDICARE POPULATION AND CHRONIC EXPOSURE TO FINE PARTICULATE AIR POLLUTION

Prospective cohort studies have provided evidence on longer-term mortality risks of fine particulate matter (PM2.5), but due to their complexity and costs, only a few have been conducted. By linking monitoring data to the U.S. Medicare system by county of residence, we developed a retrospective cohort study, the Medicare Air Pollution Cohort Study (MCAPS), comprising over 20 million enrollees in the 250 largest counties during 2000-2002. We estimated log-linear regression models having as outcome the age-specific mortality rate for each county and as the main predictor, the average level for the study period 2000. Area-level covariates were used to adjust for socio-economic status and smoking. We reported results under several degrees of adjustment for spatial confounding and with stratification into by eastern, central and western counties. We estimated that a 10 µg/m3 increase in PM25 is associated with a 7.6% increase in mortality (95% CI: 4.4 to 10.8%). We found a stronger association in the eastern counties than nationally, with no evidence of an association in western counties. When adjusted for spatial confounding, the estimated log-relative risks drop by 50%. We demonstrated the feasibility of using Medicare data to establish cohorts for follow-up for effects of air pollution. Particulate matter (PM) air pollution is a global public health problem (1). In developing countries, levels of airborne particles still reach concentrations at which serious health consequences are well-documented; in developed countries, recent epidemiologic evidence shows continued adverse effects, even though particle levels have declined in the last two decades (2-6). Increased mortality associated with higher levels of PM air pollution has been of particular concern, giving an imperative for stronger protective regulations (7). Evidence on PM and health comes from studies of acute and chronic adverse effects (6). The London Fog of 1952 provides dramatic evidence of the unacceptable short-term risk of extremely high levels of PM air pollution (8-10); multi-site time-series studies of daily mortality show that far lower levels of particles are still associated with short-term risk (5)(11-13). Cohort studies provide complementary evidence on the longer-term risks of PM air pollution, indicating the extent to which exposure reduces life expectancy. The design of these studies involves follow-up of cohorts for mortality over periods of years to decades and an assessment of mortality risk in association with estimated long-term exposure to air pollution (2-4;14-17). Because of the complexity and costs of such studies, only a small number have been conducted. The most rigorously executed, including the Harvard Six Cities Study and the American Cancer Society’s (ACS) Cancer Prevention Study II, have provided generally consistent evidence for an association of long- term exposure to particulate matter air pollution with increased all-cause and cardio-respiratory mortality (2,4,14,15). Results from these studies have been used in risk assessments conducted for setting the U.S. National Ambient Air Quality Standard (NAAQS) for PM and for estimating the global burden of disease attributable to air pollution (18,19). Additional prospective cohort studies are necessary, however, to confirm associations between long-term exposure to PM and mortality, to broaden the populations studied, and to refine estimates by regions across which particle composition varies. Toward this end, we have used data from the U.S. Medicare system, which covers nearly all persons 65 years of age and older in the United States. We linked Medicare mortality data to (particulate matter less than 2.5 µm in aerodynamic diameter) air pollution monitoring data to create a new retrospective cohort study, the Medicare Air Pollution Cohort Study (MCAPS), consisting of 20 million persons from 250 counties and representing about 50% of the US population of elderly living in urban settings. In this paper, we report on the relationship between longer-term exposure to PM2.5 and mortality risk over the period 2000 to 2002 in the MCAPS.

The results of a barrier analysis on complementary feeding practices among mothers in the Central River Division of the Gambia

Currently, the barriers to appropriate infant feeding practices are largely unknown in the Central River Division of the Gambia. A questionnaire was developed and implemented by a local Non Governmental Organization (NGO), the Gambia Food and Nutrition Agency, in order to gain more information and ultimately to improve the child mortality rate of the country. There were two participant groups: 88 Doers who are women who had adopted the appropriate complementary feeding practice guidelines as defined by the World Health Organization and 87 Non Doers who are women who had in some way strayed from the appropriate complementary feeding practice guidelines. The questionnaire included aspects of the Health Belief Model which can be used in the development of a future intervention. The Yes/No questions were analyzed using the Chi-square statistical method and the open-ended questions used a descriptive analysis method of evaluation. The constructs for perceived susceptibility, perceived action efficacy, perceived self efficacy, cues for action and perception of divine showed significant differences between the Doers and the Non Doers (p<0.05). The descriptive analysis revealed that both participant groups had a limited understanding of the preventative qualities of the adoption of appropriate complementary feeding practices. The women in both of groups also showed a strong perception of divine will. Women in the Central River Division perceive their husband and in-laws to be the most influential in the decision-making process regarding infant feeding practices. Recommendations for future interventions must acknowledge the importance and influence of the community surrounding the women in their adoption of the appropriate infant feeding practices. It would also be important to educate women about of the specific guidelines of the appropriate complementary feeding practices, specifically the delay in early initiation of complementary feeding. The results of this barrier analysis provide useful information to plan and implement an effective intervention to improve the child mortality rate in the Gambia. ^

Influence Of The Major Nitrite Transporter Nirc On The Virulence Of A Swollen Head Syndrome Avian Pathogenic E. Coli (apec) Strain.

Avian Pathogenic Escherichia coli (APEC) strains are extra-intestinal E. coli that infect poultry and cause diseases. Nitrite is a central branch-point in bacterial nitrogen metabolism and is used as a cytotoxin by macrophages. Unlike nitric oxide (NO), nitrite cannot diffuse across bacterial membrane cells. The NirC protein acts as a specific channel to facilitate the transport of nitrite into Salmonella and E. coli cells for nitrogen metabolism and cytoplasmic detoxification. NirC is also required for the pathogenicity of Salmonella by downregulating the production of NO by the host macrophages. Based on an in vitro microarray that revealed the overexpression of the nirC gene in APEC strain SCI-07, we constructed a nirC-deficient SCI-07 strain (ΔnirC) and evaluated its virulence potential using in vivo and in vitro assays. The final cumulative mortalities caused by mutant and wild-type (WT) were similar; while the ΔnirC caused a gradual increase in the mortality rate during the seven days recorded, the WT caused mortality up to 24h post-infection (hpi). Counts of the ΔnirC cells in the spleen, lung and liver were higher than those of the WT after 48 hpi but similar at 24 hpi. Although similar number of ΔnirC and WT cells was observed in macrophages at 3 hpi, there was higher number of ΔnirC cells at 16 hpi. The cell adhesion ability of the ΔnirC strain was about half the WT level in the presence and absence of alpha-D-mannopyranoside. These results indicate that the nirC gene influences the pathogenicity of SCI-07 strain.

Hyperglycemia can delay left ventricular dysfunction but not autonomic damage after myocardial infarction in rodents

Background: Although clinical diabetes mellitus is obviously a high risk factor for myocardial infarction (MI), in experimental studies disagreement exists about the sensitivity to ischemic injury of an infarcted myocardium. Recently, our group demonstrated that diabetic animals presented better cardiac function recovery and cellular resistance to ischemic injury than nondiabetics. In the present study, we evaluated the chronic effects of MI on left ventricular (LV) and autonomic functions in streptozotocin (STZ) diabetic rats. Methods: Male Wistar rats were divided into 4 groups: control (C, n = 15), diabetes (D, n = 16), MI (I, n = 21), and diabetes + MI (DI, n = 30). MI was induced 15 days after diabetes (STZ) induction. Ninety days after MI, LV and autonomic functions were evaluated (8 animals each group). Left ventricular homogenates were analyzed by Western blotting to evaluate the expression of calcium handling proteins. Results: MI area was similar in infarcted groups (similar to 43%). Ejection fraction and + dP/dt were reduced in I compared with DI. End-diastolic pressure was additionally increased in I compared with DI. Compared with DI, I had increased Na(+)-Ca(2+) exchange and phospholamban expression (164%) and decreased phosphorylated phospholamban at serine(16) (65%) and threonine(17) (70%) expression. Nevertheless, diabetic groups had greater autonomic dysfunction, observed by baroreflex sensitivity and pulse interval variability reductions. Consequently, the mortality rate was increased in DI compared with I, D, and C groups. Conclusions: LV dysfunction in diabetic animals was attenuated after 90 days of myocardial infarction and was associated with a better profile of calcium handling proteins. However, this positive adaptation was not able to reduce the mortality rate of DI animals, suggesting that autonomic dysfunction is associated with increased mortality in this group. Therefore, it is possible that the better cardiac function has been transitory, and the autonomic dysfunction, more prominent in diabetic group, may lead, in the future, to the cardiovascular damage.