The Inflation Bias When the Central Bank Targets, the Natural Rate of Unemployment

This paper studies the proposition that an inflation bias can arise in a setup where a central banker with asymmetric preferences targets the natural unemployment rate. Preferences are asymmetric in the sense that positive unemployment deviations from the natural rate are weighted more (or less) severely than negative deviations in the central banker's loss function. The bias is proportional to the conditional variance of unemployment. The time-series predictions of the model are evaluated using data from G7 countries. Econometric estimates support the prediction that the conditional variance of unemployment and the rate of inflation are positively related.

Aeolian geomorphodynamics in endorheic basins of the Mongolian Gobi Desert

Die vorliegende Arbeit ist im Zuge des DFG Projektes Spätpleistozäne, holozäne und aktuelle Geomorphodynamik in abflusslosen Becken der Mongolischen Gobi´´ entstanden. Das Arbeitsgebiet befindet sich in der südlichen Mongolei im nördlichen Teil der Wüste Gobi. Neben einigen Teilen der Sahara (Heintzenberg, 2009), beispielsweise das Bodélé Becken des nördlichen Tschads (z.B. Washington et al., 2006a; Todd et al., 2006; Warren et al., 2007) wird Zentralasien als ein Hauptliefergebiet für Partikel in die globale Zirkulation der Atmosphäre gesehen (Goudie, 2009). Hauptaugenmerk liegt hierbei besonders auf den abflusslosen Becken und deren Sedimentablagerungen. Die, der Deflation ausgesetzten Flächen der Seebecken, sind hauptsächliche Quelle für Partikel die sich in Form von Staub respektive Sand ausbreiten. Im Hinblick auf geomorphologische Landschaftsentwicklung wurde der Zusammenhang von Beckensedimenten zu Hangdepositionen numerisch simuliert. Ein von Grunert and Lehmkuhl (2004) publiziertes Model, angelehnt an Ideen von Pye (1995) wird damit in Betracht gezogen. Die vorliegenden Untersuchungen modellieren Verbreitungsmechanismen auf regionaler Ebene ausgehend von einer größeren Anzahl an einzelnen punktuellen Standorten. Diese sind repräsentativ für die einzelnen geomorphologischen Systemglieder mit möglicherweise einer Beteiligung am Budget aeolischer Geomorphodynamik. Die Bodenbedeckung durch das charakteristische Steinpflaster der Gobi - Region, sowie unter anderem Korngrößenverteilungen der Oberflächensedimente wurden untersucht. Des Weiteren diente eine zehnjährige Zeitreihe (Jan 1998 bis Dez 2007) meteorologischer Daten als Grundlage zur Analyse der Bedingungen für äolische Geomorphodynamik. Die Daten stammen von 32 staatlichen mongolischen Wetterstationen aus der Region und Teile davon wurden für die Simulationen verwendet. Zusätzlich wurden atmosphärische Messungen zur Untersuchung der atmosphärischen Stabilität und ihrer tageszeitlichen Variabilität mit Mess-Drachenaufstiegen vorgenommen. Die Feldbefunde und auch die Ergebnisse der Laboruntersuchungen sowie der Datensatz meteorologischer Parameter dienten als Eingangsparameter für die Modellierungen. Emissionsraten der einzelnen Standorte und die Partikelverteilung im 3D Windfeld wurden modelliert um die Konvektivität der Beckensedimente und Hangdepositionen zu simulieren. Im Falle hoher mechanischer Turbulenz der bodennahen Luftschicht (mit einhergehender hoher Wind Reibungsgeschwindigkeit), wurde generell eine neutrale Stabilität festgestellt und die Simulationen von Partikelemission sowie deren Ausbreitung und Deposition unter neutraler Stabilitätsbedingung berechnet. Die Berechnung der Partikelemission wurde auf der Grundlage eines sehr vereinfachten missionsmodells in Anlehnung an bestehende Untersuchungen (Laurent et al., 2006; Darmenova et al., 2009; Shao and Dong, 2006; Alfaro, 2008) durchgeführt. Sowohl 3D Windfeldkalkulationen als auch unterschiedliche Ausbreitungsszenarien äolischer Sedimente wurden mit dem kommerziellen Programm LASAT® (Lagrange-Simulation von Aerosol-Transport) realisiert. Diesem liegt ein Langargischer Algorithmus zugrunde, mittels dessen die Verbreitung einzelner Partikel im Windfeld mit statistischer Wahrscheinlichkeit berechnet wird. Über Sedimentationsparameter kann damit ein Ausbreitungsmodell der Beckensedimente in Hinblick auf die Gebirgsfußflächen und -hänge generiert werden. Ein weiterer Teil der Untersuchungen beschäftigt sich mit der geochemischen Zusammensetzung der Oberflächensedimente. Diese Proxy sollte dazu dienen die simulierten Ausbreitungsrichtungen der Partikel aus unterschiedlichen Quellregionen nach zu verfolgen. Im Falle der Mongolischen Gobi zeigte sich eine weitestgehende Homogenität der Minerale und chemischen Elemente in den Sedimenten. Laser Bebohrungen einzelner Sandkörner zeigten nur sehr leichte Unterschiede in Abhängigkeit der Quellregionen. Die Spektren der Minerale und untersuchten Elemente deuten auf graitische Zusammensetzungen hin. Die, im Untersuchungsgebiet weit verbreiteten Alkali-Granite (Jahn et al., 2009) zeigten sich als hauptverantwortlich für die Sedimentproduktion im Untersuchungsgebiet. Neben diesen Mineral- und Elementbestimmungen wurde die Leichtmineralfraktion auf die Charakteristik des Quarzes hin untersucht. Dazu wurden Quarzgehalt, Kristallisation und das Elektronen-Spin-Resonanz Signal des E’1 - Centers in Sauerstoff Fehlstellungen des SiO2 Gitters bestimmt. Die Untersuchungen sind mit dem Methodenvorschlag von Sun et al. (2007) durchgeführt worden und sind prinzipiell gut geeignet um Herkunftsanalysenrndurchzuführen. Eine signifikante Zuordnung der einzelnen Quellgebiete ist jedoch auch in dieser Proxy nicht zu finden gewesen.

Doctor-patient communication in the medical interaction: Context, implications, and practice

Effective communication; whether from an interpersonal, mass media, or global perspective, is a critical component in public health. It is an essential conduit in increasing public awareness of available health resources, potential health hazards and related disease prevention strategies, and in delivering better health care. Within this context, available literature asserts doctor-patient communication as central to healthcare delivery. It has been shown to affect patient health outcomes, satisfaction with care, adherence to treatment recommendations, and even understanding of medical information. While research supports the essential imperative of interventions aimed at teaching doctors and patients the communication skills necessary for a successful and meaningful medical interaction, most interventions to date, focus on teaching these communication skills to doctors and seem to rely, largely, on mass media for providing patients with the information needed to increase communication efficacy. This study sought to fill a significant gap in the doctor-patient communication literature by reviewing the context of the doctor-patient exchange in the medical interaction, the implications of this exchange in resulting care of the patient, and the potential improvements to practice through interventions aimed at improving the communication exchange. Closing with an evaluation of a patient-centered communication intervention, the “How to Talk to Your Doctor” (HTTTYD) program that combines previously identified optimal strategies for improving communication between doctors and patients, this study examined the patients’ perspective of their potential as better communicators in the medical interaction. ^ Specific Aims, Hypotheses or Questions (Aim I) To examine the context of health communication within a public health framework and its relation to health care delivery. (Aim II) To review doctor-patient communication as a central focus within health care delivery and the resulting implications to patient care. (Aim III) To assess the utility of interventions to improve doctor-patient communication. Specifically, to evaluate the effectiveness of a patient-centered community education intervention, the “How to Talk to Your Doctor” (HTTTYD) program, aimed at improving patient communication efficacy.^

BIOMEDICAL LANGUAGE UNDERSTANDING AND EXTRACTION (BLUE-TEXT): A MINIMAL SYNTACTIC, SEMANTIC METHOD

Clinical text understanding (CTU) is of interest to health informatics because critical clinical information frequently represented as unconstrained text in electronic health records are extensively used by human experts to guide clinical practice, decision making, and to document delivery of care, but are largely unusable by information systems for queries and computations. Recent initiatives advocating for translational research call for generation of technologies that can integrate structured clinical data with unstructured data, provide a unified interface to all data, and contextualize clinical information for reuse in multidisciplinary and collaborative environment envisioned by CTSA program. This implies that technologies for the processing and interpretation of clinical text should be evaluated not only in terms of their validity and reliability in their intended environment, but also in light of their interoperability, and ability to support information integration and contextualization in a distributed and dynamic environment. This vision adds a new layer of information representation requirements that needs to be accounted for when conceptualizing implementation or acquisition of clinical text processing tools and technologies for multidisciplinary research. On the other hand, electronic health records frequently contain unconstrained clinical text with high variability in use of terms and documentation practices, and without commitmentto grammatical or syntactic structure of the language (e.g. Triage notes, physician and nurse notes, chief complaints, etc). This hinders performance of natural language processing technologies which typically rely heavily on the syntax of language and grammatical structure of the text. This document introduces our method to transform unconstrained clinical text found in electronic health information systems to a formal (computationally understandable) representation that is suitable for querying, integration, contextualization and reuse, and is resilient to the grammatical and syntactic irregularities of the clinical text. We present our design rationale, method, and results of evaluation in processing chief complaints and triage notes from 8 different emergency departments in Houston Texas. At the end, we will discuss significance of our contribution in enabling use of clinical text in a practical bio-surveillance setting.

Essays on Firm Heterogeneity with Empirical Applications in Economic History and Agricultural Economics

This thesis uses models of firm-heterogeneity to complete empirical analyses in economic history and agricultural economics. In Chapter 2, a theoretical model of firm heterogeneity is used to derive a statistic that summarizes the welfare gains from the introduction of a new technology. The empirical application considers the use of mechanical steam power in the Canadian manufacturing sector during the late nineteenth century. I exploit exogenous variation in geography to estimate several parameters of the model. My results indicate that the use of steam power resulted in a 15.1 percent increase in firm-level productivity and a 3.0-5.2 percent increase in aggregate welfare. Chapter 3 considers various policy alternatives to price ceiling legislation in the market for production quotas in the dairy farming sector in Quebec. I develop a dynamic model of the demand for quotas with farmers that are heterogeneous in their marginal cost of milk production. The econometric analysis uses farm-level data and estimates a parameter of the theoretical model that is required for the counterfactual experiments. The results indicate that the price of quotas could be reduced to the ceiling price through a 4.16 percent expansion of the aggregate supply of quotas, or through moderate trade liberalization of Canadian dairy products. In Chapter 4, I study the relationship between farm-level productivity and participation in the Commercial Export Milk (CEM) program. I use a difference-in-difference research design with inverse propensity weights to test for causality between participation in the CEM program and total factor productivity (TFP). I find a positive correlation between participation in the CEM program and TFP, however I find no statistically significant evidence that the CEM program affected TFP.

OntoPedigree:modelling pedigrees for traceability in supply chains

The sharing of product and process information plays a central role in coordinating supply chains operations and is a key driver for their success. "Linked pedigrees" - linked datasets, that encapsulate event based traceability information of artifacts as they move along the supply chain, provide a scalable mechanism to record and facilitate the sharing of track and trace knowledge among supply chain partners. In this paper we present "OntoPedigree" a content ontology design pattern for the representation of linked pedigrees, that can be specialised and extended to define domain specific traceability ontologies. Events captured within the pedigrees are specified using EPCIS - a GS1 standard for the specification of traceability information within and across enterprises, while certification information is described using PROV - a vocabulary for modelling provenance of resources. We exemplify the utility of OntoPedigree in linked pedigrees generated for supply chains within the perishable goods and pharmaceuticals sectors.

Kiigazítás recesszió nélkül. Esettanulmány a magyar stabilizációról = Adjustment without recession: A Case Study of Hungarian Stabilization

1995. március 12-én a magyar kormány és a központi bank szigorú kiigazítási és stabilizációs programot hirdetett meg. A cikk az első eredmények számbavételére tesz kísérletet. A program meghirdetése előtt Magyarország két egymást követő év- ben hatalmas fizetésimérleg-hiányt mutatott fel, és nemzetközi megítélése romlani kezdett. A program radikális intézkedései nyomán elkerülhetővé vált a mexikói vál- sághoz hasonló pénzügyi katasztrófa. Sok makrogazdasági mutató jól érzékelhető javulást jelez: lényegesen csökkent a kereskedelmi mérleg és a folyó fizetési mérleg hiánya, a költségvetés elsődleges egyenlege pozitív lett. Az ilyesféle stabilizációs programokat rendszerint súlyos visszaesés és a munkanélküliség nagy növekedése kíséri. Magyarország elkerülte ezeket a mellékhatásokat: a GDP drasztikus vissza- esés helyett valamelyest tovább növekedett, és a munkanélküliség változatlan ma- radt. A javulásnak nagy ára volt: az életszínvonal erőteljes csökkenése, az infláció felgyorsulása, bár a magyarországi infláció még mindig a kézben tartott, mérsékelt infláció sávjában maradt. A cikk ismerteti a program heterodox módszereit: 1. nagy leértékelés, az előre meghirdetett csúszó árfolyam rezsimjének bevezetése, valamint ideiglenes import- vámpótlék kivetése; 2. határozott jövedelempolitika, amely 12 százalékos reálbércsök- kenést kényszerített ki; 3. fiskális intézkedések, köztük jóléti jogosultságok csök- kentése (a program meghirdetése előtt ezek a jogosultságok tabuk voltak); 4. a hitel- kínálat átcsoportosítása a vállalati szektor javára, a jövedelmezőség növekedése; 5. feszített (bár nem mértéktelenül feszített) monetáris politika, amely lehetővé tette a sikeres vállalatok expanzióját; 6. a privatizáció felgyorsítása, nagy és sikeres lépé- sek egyes kulcsszektorok (energia, telekommunikáció) privatizációjában. Végezetül a tanulmány óva int a túlzott magabiztosságtól és felhívja a figyelmet a potenciális veszélyekre. A makrogazdasági javulás még törékeny. A magyar fejlődés legbiztatóbb sajátossága a termelékenység erőteljes és folyamatos növekedése. / === / On March 12, 1995 Hungary s government and central bank announced a tough program of adjustment and stabilization. This study is an attempt to asses the first results. Before the announcement of the program Hungary had a huge current account deficit for two consecutive years, and her international reputation started to decline. The program s radical measures made it possible to avoid a Mexico-style financial catastrophe. Many macroeconomic indicators show tangible improvement: the trade deficit and the deficit on the current account have been reduced significantly, the primary budget shifted to surplus. These kinds of adjustment programs are usually associated with deep recession and a large increase of unemployment. Hungary avoided these adverse side-effects: GDP instead of a drastic decline, continued to grow somewhat, and unemployment remained unchanged. There was a high price for the improvement: a sharp decline in the standard of living, and an acceleration of inflation, although Hungary is still in the range of controlled, moderate inflation. The paper describes the heterodox instruments of the program: (1) large devaluation, followed by a new exchange rate regime of pre-announced crawling peg, and a temporary import surcharge, (2) energetic income policy, enforcing a 12% cut in real wages; (3) fiscal measures, including cuts in welfare entitlements. That happened for the first time: before the program entitlements had been regarded as taboo ; (4) reallocation of credit supply in favor of the enterprise sector; increase of profitability; (5) tight (but not excessively tight) monetary policy, allowing the expansion of successful private busi- ness; (6) acceleration of privatisation, including large and successful steps in the privatisation of some key sectors (energy, telecommunication). Finally the paper warns against excessive self- confidence and draws the attention to potential dangers. The macroeconomic improvement is still fragile. The most reassuring feature of Hungary s development is the impressive and persistent improvement of productivity.

Isotope and Mg/Ca measurements from Cores ME0005A-43JC and 202-1242 of tropical Pacific

Multiproxy geologic records of d18O and Mg/Ca in fossil foraminifera from sediments under the Eastern Pacific Warm Pool (EPWP) region west of Central America document variations in upper ocean temperature, pycnocline strength, and salinity (i.e., net precipitation) over the past 30 kyr. Although evident in the paleotemperature record, there is no glacial-interglacial difference in paleosalinity, suggesting that tropical hydrologic changes do not respond passively to high-latitude ice sheets and oceans. Millennial variations in paleosalinity with amplitudes as high as 4 practical salinity units occur with a dominant period of 3-5 ky during the glacial/deglacial interval and 1.0-1.5 ky during the Holocene. The amplitude of the EPWP paleosalinity changes greatly exceeds that of published Caribbean and western tropical Pacific paleosalinity records. EPWP paleosalinity changes correspond to millennial-scale climate changes in the surface and deep Atlantic and the high northern latitudes, with generally higher (lower) paleosalinity during cold (warm) events. In addition to Intertropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ) dynamics, which play an important role in tropical hydrologic variability, changes in Atlantic-Pacific moisture transport, which is closely linked to ITCZ dynamics, may also contribute to hydrologic variations in the EPWP. Calculations of interbasin salinity average and interbasin salinity contrast between the EPWP and the Caribbean help differentiate long-term changes in mean ITCZ position and Atlantic-Pacific moisture transport, respectively.

Essays on Firm Heterogeneity with Empirical Applications in Economic History and Agricultural Economics

This thesis uses models of firm-heterogeneity to complete empirical analyses in economic history and agricultural economics. In Chapter 2, a theoretical model of firm heterogeneity is used to derive a statistic that summarizes the welfare gains from the introduction of a new technology. The empirical application considers the use of mechanical steam power in the Canadian manufacturing sector during the late nineteenth century. I exploit exogenous variation in geography to estimate several parameters of the model. My results indicate that the use of steam power resulted in a 15.1 percent increase in firm-level productivity and a 3.0-5.2 percent increase in aggregate welfare. Chapter 3 considers various policy alternatives to price ceiling legislation in the market for production quotas in the dairy farming sector in Quebec. I develop a dynamic model of the demand for quotas with farmers that are heterogeneous in their marginal cost of milk production. The econometric analysis uses farm-level data and estimates a parameter of the theoretical model that is required for the counterfactual experiments. The results indicate that the price of quotas could be reduced to the ceiling price through a 4.16 percent expansion of the aggregate supply of quotas, or through moderate trade liberalization of Canadian dairy products. In Chapter 4, I study the relationship between farm-level productivity and participation in the Commercial Export Milk (CEM) program. I use a difference-in-difference research design with inverse propensity weights to test for causality between participation in the CEM program and total factor productivity (TFP). I find a positive correlation between participation in the CEM program and TFP, however I find no statistically significant evidence that the CEM program affected TFP.

NEW DATA ON THE CHRONOLOGY OF THE VALE DO FORNO SEDIMENTARY SEQUENCE (LOWER TAGUS RIVER TERRACE STAIRCASE) AND ITS RELEVANCE AS FLUVIAL ARCHIVE OF THE MIDDLE PLEISTOCENE IN WESTERN IBERIA

NEW DATA ON THE CHRONOLOGY OF THE VALE DO FORNO SEDIMENTARY SEQUENCE (LOWER TAGUS RIVER TERRACE STAIRCASE) AND ITS RELEVANCE AS FLUVIAL ARCHIVE OF THE MIDDLE PLEISTOCENE IN WESTERN IBERIA Pedro P. Cunha 1, António A. Martins 2, Jan-Pieter Buylaert 3,4, Andrew S. Murray 4, Luis Raposo 5, Paolo Mozzi 6, Martin Stokes 7 1 MARE - Marine and Environmental Sciences Centre, Department of Earth Sciences, University of Coimbra, Portugal: pcunha@dct.uc.pt 2 MARE - Marine and Environmental Sciences Centre, Dep. Geociências, University of Évora, Portugal; aam@uevora.pt 3 Centre for Nuclear Technologies, Technical University of Denmark, Risø Campus, Denmark; jabu@dtu.dk 4 Nordic Laboratory for Luminescence Dating, Aarhus University, Risø DTU, Denmark; anmu@dtu.dk 5 Museu Nacional de Arqueologia, Lisboa, Portugal; 3raposos@sapo.pt 6 Department of Geosciences, University of Padova, Italy; paolo.mozzi@unipd.it 7 School of Geography, Earth and Environmental Sciences, University of Plymouth, UK; m.stokes@plymouth.ac.uk The stratigraphic units that record the evolution of the Tagus River in Portugal (study area between Vila Velha de Ródão and Porto Alto villages; Fig. 1) have different sedimentary characteristics and lithic industries (Cunha et al., 2012): - a culminant sedimentary unit (the ancestral Tagus, before the drainage network entrenchment) – SLD13 (+142 to 262 m above river bed – a.r.b.; with probable age ca. 3,6 to 1,8 Ma), without artefacts; - T1 terrace (+84 to 180 m; ca. 1000? to 900 ka), without artefacts; - T2 terrace (+57 to 150 m; top deposits with a probable age ca. 600 ka), without artefacts; - T3 terrace (+43 to 113 m; ca. 460 to 360? ka), without artefacts; - T4 terrace (+26 to 55 m; ca. 335 a 155 ka), Lower Paleolithic (Acheulian) at basal and middle levels but early Middle Paleolithic at top levels; - T5 terrace (+5 to 34 m; 135 to 73 ka), Middle Paleolithic (Mousterian; Levallois technique); - T6 terrace (+3 to 14 m; 62 to 32 ka), late Middle Paleolithic (late Mousterian); - Carregueira Sands (aeolian sands) and colluvium (+3 a ca. 100 m; 32 to 12 ka), Upper Paleolithic to Epipaleolithic; - alluvial plain (+0 to 8 m; ca. 12 ka to present), Mesolithic and more recent industries. The differences in elevation (a.r.b.) of the several terrace staircases results from differential uplift due to active faults. Longitudinal correlation with the terrace levels indicates that a graded profile ca. 200 km long was achieved during terrace formation periods and a strong control by sea base level was determinant for terrace formation. The Neogene sedimentary units constituted the main source of sediments for the fluvial terraces (Fig. 2). Geomorphological mapping, coupled with lithostratigraphy, sedimentology and luminescence dating (quartz-OSL and K-feldspar post-IRIR290) were used in this study focused on the T4 terrace, which comprises a Lower Gravels (LG) unit and an Upper Sand (US) unit. The thick, coarse and dominantly massive gravels of the LG unit indicate deposition by a coarse bed-load braided river, with strong sediment supply, high gradient and fluvial competence, during conditions of rapidly rising sea level. Luminescence dating only provided minimum ages but it is probable that the LG unit corresponds to the earlier part of the MIS9 (ca. 335 to 325 ka), immediately postdating the incision promoted by the very low sea level (reaching ca. -140 m) during MIS10 (362 to 337 ka), a period of relatively cold climate conditions with weak vegetation cover on slopes and low sea level. Fig. 1. Main Portuguese reaches in which the Tagus River can be divided (Lower Tagus Basin): I – from the Spanish border to Arneiro (a general E–W trend, mainly consisting of polygonal segments); II – from Arneiro to Gavião (NE–SW); III – from Gavião to Arripiado (E–W); IV – from Arripiado to Vila Franca de Xira (NNE-SSW); V – from Vila Franca de Xira to the Atlantic shoreline. The faults considered to be the limit of the referred fluvial sectors are: F1 – Ponsul-Arneiro fault (WSW-ENE); F2 – Gavião fault (NW-SE); F3 – Ortiga fault (NW-SE); F4 – Vila Nova da Barquinha fault (W-E); F5 – Arripiado-Chamusca fault (NNE-SSW). 1 – estuary; 2 – terraces; 3 – faults; 4 – Tagus main channel. The main Iberian drainage basins are also represented (inset). The lower and middle parts of the US unit, comprising an alternation of clayish silts with paleosols and minor sands to the east (flood-plain deposits) and sand deposits to the west (channel belt), have a probable age of ca. 325 to 200 ka. This points to formation during MIS9 to MIS7, under conditions of high to medium sea levels and warm to mild conditions. The upper part of the US unit, dominated by sand facies and with OSL ages of ca. 200 to 154 ka, correlates with the early part of the MIS6. During this period, progradation resulted from climate deterioration and relative depletion of vegetation that promoted enhanced sediment production in the catchment, coupled with initiation of sea-level lowering that increased the longitudinal slope. The Vale do Forno and Vale da Atela archaeological sites (Alpiarça, central Portugal) document the earliest human occupation in the Lower Tagus River, well established in geomorphological and environmental terms, within the Middle Pleistocene. The Lower Palaeolithic sites were found on the T4 terrace (+26 m, a.r.b.). The oldest artefacts previously found in the LG unit, display crude bifacial forms that can be attributed to the Acheulian, with a probable age of ca. 335 to 325 ka. The T4 US unit has archaeological sites stratigraphically documenting successive phases of an evolved Acheulian, that probably date ca. 325 to 300 ka. Notably, these Lower Palaeolithic artisans were able to produce tools with different sophistication levels, simply by applying different strategies: more elaborated reduction sequences in case of bifaces and simple reduction sequences to obtain cleavers. Fig. 2. . Simplified geologic map of the Lower Tagus Cenozoic basin, adapted from the Carta Geológica de Portugal, 1/500000, 1992). The study area (comprising the Vale do Forno and Vale de Atela sites) is located on the more upstream sector of the Lower Tagus River reach IV, between Arripiado and Chamusca villages. 1 – alluvium (Holocene); 2 – terraces (Pleistocene); 3 – sands, silts and gravels (Paleogene to Pliocene); 4 – Sintra Massif (Cretaceous); 5 – limestones, marls, silts and sandstones (Mesozoic); 6 – quartzites (Ordovician); 7 – basement (Proterozoic to Palaeozoic); 8 – main fault. The main Portuguese reaches of the Tagus River are identified (I to V). The VF3 site (Milharós), containing a Final Acheulian industry, with fine and elaborated bifaces) found in a stratigraphic level located between the T4 terrace deposits and a colluvium associated with Late Pleistocene aeolian sands (32 to 12 ka), has an age younger than ca. 154 ka but much older than 32 ka. In the study area, the sedimentary units of the T4 terrace seem to record the river response to sea-level changes and climatically-driven fluctuations in sediment supply. REFERENCES Cunha P. P., Almeida N. A. C., Aubry T., Martins A. A., Murray A. S., Buylaert J.-P., Sohbati R., Raposo L., Rocha L., 2012, Records of human occupation from Pleistocene river terrace and aeolian sediments in the Arneiro depression (Lower Tejo River, central eastern Portugal). Geomorphology, vol. 165-166, pp. 78-90.

Evolutionary algorithms for sustainable building design

This approach to sustainable design explores the possibility of creating an architectural design process which can iteratively produce optimised and sustainable design solutions. Driven by an evolution process based on genetic algorithms, the system allows the designer to “design the building design generator” rather than to “designs the building”. The design concept is abstracted into a digital design schema, which allows transfer of the human creative vision into the rational language of a computer. The schema is then elaborated into the use of genetic algorithms to evolve innovative, performative and sustainable design solutions. The prioritisation of the project’s constraints and the subsequent design solutions synthesised during design generation are expected to resolve most of the major conflicts in the evaluation and optimisation phases. Mosques are used as the example building typology to ground the research activity. The spatial organisations of various mosque typologies are graphically represented by adjacency constraints between spaces. Each configuration is represented by a planar graph which is then translated into a non-orthogonal dual graph and fed into the genetic algorithm system with fixed constraints and expected performance criteria set to govern evolution. The resultant Hierarchical Evolutionary Algorithmic Design System is developed by linking the evaluation process with environmental assessment tools to rank the candidate designs. The proposed system generates the concept, the seed, and the schema, and has environmental performance as one of the main criteria in driving optimisation.

The politics of technology adoption : Water metering in Progressive Era Chicago

This paper examines the interactions between knowledge and power in the adoption of technologies central to municipal water supply plans, specifically investigating decisions in Progressive Era Chicago regarding water meters. The invention and introduction into use of the reliable water meter early in the Progressive Era allowed planners and engineers to gauge water use, and enabled communities willing to invest in the new infrastructure to allocate costs for provision of supply to consumers relative to use. In an era where efficiency was so prized and the role of technocratic expertise was increasing, Chicago’s continued failure to adopt metering (despite levels of per capita consumption nearly twice that of comparable cities and acknowledged levels of waste nearing half of system production) may indicate that the underlying characteristics of the city’s political system and its elite stymied the implementation of metering technologies as in Smith’s (1977) comparative study of nineteenth century armories. Perhaps, as with Flyvbjerg’s (1998) study of the city of Aalborg, the powerful know what they want and data will not interfere with their conclusions: if the data point to a solution other than what is desired, then it must be that the data are wrong. Alternatively, perhaps the technocrats failed adequately to communicate their findings in a language which the political elite could understand, with the failure lying in assumptions of scientific or technical literacy rather than with dissatisfaction in outcomes (Benveniste 1972). When examined through a historical institutionalist perspective, the case study of metering adoption lends itself to exploration of larger issues of knowledge and power in the planning process: what governs decisions regarding knowledge acquisition, how knowledge and power interact, whether the potential to improve knowledge leads to changes in action, and, whether the decision to overlook available knowledge has an impact on future decisions.

Measuring the effect of motorcycle rider training on psychosocial influences for risk taking

Aim: Whilst motorcycle rider training is commonly incorporated into licensing programs in many developed nations, little empirical support has been found in previous research to prescribe it as an effective road safety countermeasure. It has been posited that the lack of effect of motorcycle rider training on crash reduction may, in part, be due to the predominant focus on skills-based training with little attention devoted to addressing attitudes and motives that influence subsequent risky riding. However, little past research has actually endeavoured to measure attitudinal and motivational factors as a function of rider training. Accordingly, this study was undertaken to assess the effect of a commercial motorcycle rider training program on psychosocial factors that have been shown to influence risk taking by motorcyclists. Method: Four hundred and thirty-eight motorcycle riders attending a competency-based licence training course in Brisbane, Australia, voluntarily participated in the study. A self-report questionnaire adapted from the Rider Risk Assessment Measure (RRAM) was administered to participants at the commencement of training, then again at the conclusion of training. Participants were informed of the independent nature of the research and that their responses would in no way effect their chance of obtaining a licence. To minimise potential demand characteristics, participants were instructed to seal completed questionnaires in envelopes and place them in a sealed box accessible only by the research team (i.e. not able to be viewed by instructors). Results: Significant reductions in the propensity for thrill seeking and intentions to engage in risky riding in the next 12 months were found at the end of training. In addition, a significant increase in attitudes to safety was found. Conclusions: These findings indicate that rider training may have a positive short-term influence on riders’ propensity for risk taking. However, such findings must be interpreted with caution in regard to the subsequent safety of riders as these factors may be subject to further influence once riders are licensed and actively engage with peers during on-road riding. This highlights a challenge for road safety education / training programs in regard to the adoption of safety practices and the need for behavioural follow-up over time to ascertain long-term effects. This study was the initial phase of an ongoing program of research into rider training and risk taking framed around Theory of Planned Behaviour concepts. A subsequent 12 month follow-up of the study participants has been undertaken with data analysis pending.

Business Ecosystems’ Evolution — An Ecosystem Clockspeed Perspective

There is a growing need for measures assessing technological changes in systemic contexts as business ecosystems replace standalone products. In these ecosystem contexts, organizations are required to manage their innovation processes in increasingly networked and complex environments. In this paper, we introduce the technology and ecosystem clockspeed measures that can be used to assess the temporal nature of technological changes in a business ecosystem. We analyze systemic changes in the personal computer (PC) ecosystem, explicitly focusing on subindustries central to the delivery of PC gaming value to the end user. Our results show that the time-based intensity of technological competition in intertwined subindustries of a business ecosystem may follow various trajectories during the evolution of the ecosystem. Hence, the technology and ecosystem clockspeed measures are able to pinpoint alternating dynamics in technological changes among the subindustries in the business ecosystem. We subsequently discuss organizational considerations and theoretical implications of the proposed measures.

Photographic database development of Nigerian fisheries: a complementary source of information documentation

The paper traces the history of the different documentation media used for information dissemination. Such early media are clay tablets, papyrus, and vellum or parchment codex. The invention of printing however revolutionized the information industry, enabling the production of books in multiple copies. Photography came into documentation mainly to preserve rare materials and those that easily deteriorate. This paper reports the efforts of National Institute for Freshwater Fisheries Research (NIFFR) and Kainji Lake Fisheries Promotion Project (KLFPPP), Nigeria, to develop an Object Oriented Database (OOD) using photographs. The photographs are stored in digitized form on commercial computers, using the program ACDSee 32 for classification, description and retrieval. Specifically the paper focuses on photographs in fisheries as visual communication and expression. Presently, the database contains photo documents about the following aspects of Kainji Lake fisheries: fishing gears and crafts, fish preservation methods