Tests of proportional hazards and proportional odds models for grouped survival data

In this paper, we derive score test statistics to discriminate between proportional hazards and proportional odds models for grouped survival data. These models are embedded within a power family transformation in order to obtain the score tests. In simple cases, some small-sample results are obtained for the score statistics using Monte Carlo simulations. Score statistics have distributions well approximated by the chi-squared distribution. Real examples illustrate the proposed tests.

Analysis of the risk factors related to the immune humoral anti-Anaplasma marginale in dairy cattle

Anaplasma marginale is the most prevalent pathogen of cattle transmitted by ticks in the world. This study aimed to evaluate the risk factors for anaplasmosis in dairy cattle. Fifty dairy cattle from the herd of Empresa de Pesquisa Agropecuaria do Estado do Rio de Janeiro were selected by proportional stratified sampling. The risk factors evaluated were: physiological state, race pattern, number of lactations, milk production, infestation by Rhipicephalus microplus and animal density. Antibody activity against A. marginale was determined using the indirect enzyme-linked immunosorbent assay. The percentual values of seroprevalence for A. marginale were submitted to X2 test, and the level of minimum significance, to keep a factor in the model of logistic regression, was fixated in 5%. It was observed that pregnancy and lactation influenced significantly (p<0.05) in the seropositivity of the animals. Bos indicus animals had 5.21 times more chances of being seropositive than B. taurus animals. Primiparous female had 88% more chances of being seropositive than pluriparous female. Animals with high milk production were 63% more positive than low production animals. When infested by ticks the animals had 39% more chance of being seropositive to A. marginale. Bos indicus animals presented 5.21 times more chance of being seropositive than B. taurus animals. Primiparous females presented 88% more chance of being seropositive than the pluriparous ones. High milk production animals were 63% more positive than the low production ones. When infested by ticks the animals had 39% more chance of being seropositive to A. marginale. High density grazing provided for the animals 3.2 times more chances of being seropositive than low density ones. The herd was classified as erratic to A. marginale, even being placed in a steady enzootic area.

Efficient and Ad Hoc Estimation in the Bivariate Censoring Model

A large number of proposals for estimating the bivariate survival function under random censoring has been made. In this paper we discuss nonparametric maximum likelihood estimation and the bivariate Kaplan-Meier estimator of Dabrowska. We show how these estimators are computed, present their intuitive background and compare their practical performance under different levels of dependence and censoring, based on extensive simulation results, which leads to a practical advise.

CD4 count at antiretroviral therapy initiation and the risk of loss to follow-up: results from a multicentre cohort study.

BACKGROUND Antiretroviral therapy (ART) initiation is now recommended irrespective of CD4 count. However data on the relationship between CD4 count at ART initiation and loss to follow-up (LTFU) are limited and conflicting. METHODS We conducted a cohort analysis including all adults initiating ART (2008-2012) at three public sector sites in South Africa. LTFU was defined as no visit in the 6 months before database closure. The Kaplan-Meier estimator and Cox's proportional hazards models examined the relationship between CD4 count at ART initiation and 24-month LTFU. Final models were adjusted for demographics, year of ART initiation, programme expansion and corrected for unascertained mortality. RESULTS Among 17 038 patients, the median CD4 at initiation increased from 119 (IQR 54-180) in 2008 to 257 (IQR 175-318) in 2012. In unadjusted models, observed LTFU was associated with both CD4 counts <100 cells/μL and CD4 counts ≥300 cells/μL. After adjustment, patients with CD4 counts ≥300 cells/μL were 1.35 (95% CI 1.12 to 1.63) times as likely to be LTFU after 24 months compared to those with a CD4 150-199 cells/μL. This increased risk for patients with CD4 counts ≥300 cells/μL was largest in the first 3 months on treatment. Correction for unascertained deaths attenuated the association between CD4 counts <100 cells/μL and LTFU while the association between CD4 counts ≥300 cells/μL and LTFU persisted. CONCLUSIONS Patients initiating ART at higher CD4 counts may be at increased risk for LTFU. With programmes initiating patients at higher CD4 counts, models of ART delivery need to be reoriented to support long-term retention.

A SIMULATION STUDY OF THE SIZE AND POWER OF SOME TWO-SAMPLE TESTS FOR UNEQUALLY CENSORED SURVIVAL DATA (RANK TESTS, LOGRANK, PROPORTIONAL HAZARDS, WILCOXON TESTS, EXPONENTIAL DISTRIBUTION)

Sizes and power of selected two-sample tests of the equality of survival distributions are compared by simulation for small samples from unequally, randomly-censored exponential distributions. The tests investigated include parametric tests (F, Score, Likelihood, Asymptotic), logrank tests (Mantel, Peto-Peto), and Wilcoxon-Type tests (Gehan, Prentice). Equal sized samples, n = 18, 16, 32 with 1000 (size) and 500 (power) simulation trials, are compared for 16 combinations of the censoring proportions 0%, 20%, 40%, and 60%. For n = 8 and 16, the Asymptotic, Peto-Peto, and Wilcoxon tests perform at nominal 5% size expectations, but the F, Score and Mantel tests exceeded 5% size confidence limits for 1/3 of the censoring combinations. For n = 32, all tests showed proper size, with the Peto-Peto test most conservative in the presence of unequal censoring. Powers of all tests are compared for exponential hazard ratios of 1.4 and 2.0. There is little difference in power characteristics of the tests within the classes of tests considered. The Mantel test showed 90% to 95% power efficiency relative to parametric tests. Wilcoxon-type tests have the lowest relative power but are robust to differential censoring patterns. A modified Peto-Peto test shows power comparable to the Mantel test. For n = 32, a specific Weibull-exponential comparison of crossing survival curves suggests that the relative powers of logrank and Wilcoxon-type tests are dependent on the scale parameter of the Weibull distribution. Wilcoxon-type tests appear more powerful than logrank tests in the case of late-crossing and less powerful for early-crossing survival curves. Guidelines for the appropriate selection of two-sample tests are given. ^

Sobrevida de mulheres e homens com 60 anos e mais no município de São Paulo - Estudo SABE: as diferenças nas semelhanças em características do curso de vida

Objetivos: Avaliar numa coorte de idosos se há diferenças entre as situações do curso de vida que contribuem para uma maior chance de sobrevida em homens e mulheres com 60 anos e mais. Métodos: 2.143 idosos entrevistados em 2000 foram acompanhados durante quase 15 anos. Utilizou-se na análise estatística o teste de associação para amostras complexas (Rao-Scott), o estimador produto limite de Kaplan-Meier, o teste de log-rank, análise univariada e multivariada do modelo de riscos proporcionais de Cox, sendo construídos, através deste último, dois modelos finais por gênero, ao nível de significância de 5 por cento . Resultados e discussão: Dos 836.204 idosos paulistanos representados pelo estudo 51,6 por cento continuavam vivos (43,0 por cento dos homens e 57,7 por cento das mulheres). Em ambos os gêneros, os/as que tinham boas condições materiais e que realizavam sem dificuldade e sem ajuda mais da metade das atividades básicas e instrumentais de vida diária (ABVD/AIVD) apresentaram maior chance de sobrevivência. O mesmo foi verificado naquelas mulheres com menos de duas limitações de determinadas doenças, nas casadas, nas que ofereciam algum tipo de ajuda e nas que realizaram ações preventivas em relação a sua condição de saúde. Entre os homens o mesmo ocorreu naqueles que se referiram ser chefe de família, nos que tinham participação comunitária, nos que residiam com algum outro morador que foi ou ia à escola, que trabalharam predominantemente como proprietário ou por conta própria e nos que relataram ter tido alguma doença em seus primeiros quinzes anos de vida. Conclusão: As chances de sobrevida são diferentes entre gêneros, e entre si, mesmo em situações aparentemente semelhantes do curso de vida vivenciados e presentes em homens e mulheres idosas.

The Value Of The 2005 International Society Of Urological Pathology (isup) Modified Gleason Grading System As A Predictor Of Biochemical Recurrence After Radical Prostatectomy.

To compare time and risk to biochemical recurrence (BR) after radical prostatectomy of two chronologically different groups of patients using the standard and the modified Gleason system (MGS). Cohort 1 comprised biopsies of 197 patients graded according to the standard Gleason system (SGS) in the period 1997/2004, and cohort 2, 176 biopsies graded according to the modified system in the period 2005/2011. Time to BR was analyzed with the Kaplan-Meier product-limit analysis and prediction of shorter time to recurrence using univariate and multivariate Cox proportional hazards model. Patients in cohort 2 reflected time-related changes: striking increase in clinical stage T1c, systematic use of extended biopsies, and lower percentage of total length of cancer in millimeter in all cores. The MGS used in cohort 2 showed fewer biopsies with Gleason score ≤ 6 and more biopsies of the intermediate Gleason score 7. Time to BR using the Kaplan-Meier curves showed statistical significance using the MGS in cohort 2, but not the SGS in cohort 1. Only the MGS predicted shorter time to BR on univariate analysis and on multivariate analysis was an independent predictor. The results favor that the 2005 International Society of Urological Pathology modified system is a refinement of the Gleason grading and valuable for contemporary clinical practice.

Menopausal status: a possible predictive factor for recurrence in women with cancer of the uterine cervix without pelvic lymph node metastasis

Abstract Objectives to evaluate risk factors for recurrence of carcinoma of the uterine cervix among women who had undergone radical hysterectomy without pelvic lymph node metastasis, while taking into consideration not only the classical histopathological factors but also sociodemographic, clinical and treatment-related factors. Study desin This was an exploratory analysis on 233 women with carcinoma of the uterine cervix (stages IB and IIA) who were treated by means of radical hysterectomy and pelvic lymphadenectomy, with free surgical margins and without lymph node metastases on conventional histopathological examination. Women with histologically normal lymph nodes but with micrometastases in the immunohistochemical analysis (AE1/AE3) were excluded. Disease-free survival for sociodemographic, clinical and histopathological variables was calculated using the Kaplan-Meier method. The Cox proportional hazards model was used to identify the independent risk factors for recurrence. Twenty-seven recurrences were recorded (11.6%), of which 18 were pelvic, four were distant, four were pelvic + distant and one was of unknown location. The five-year disease-free survival rate among the study population was 88.4%. The independent risk factors for recurrence in the multivariate analysis were: postmenopausal status (HR 14.1; 95% CI: 3.7-53.6; P < 0.001), absence of or slight inflammatory reaction (HR 7.9; 95% CI: 1.7-36.5; P = 0.008) and invasion of the deepest third of the cervix (HR 6.1; 95% CI: 1.3-29.1; P = 0.021). Postoperative radiotherapy was identified as a protective factor against recurrence (HR 0.02; 95% CI: 0.001-0.25; P = 0.003). (To continue) Postmenopausal status is a possible independent risk factor for recurrence even when adjusted for classical prognostic factors (such as tumour size, depth of tumour invasion, capillary embolisation) and treatment-related factors (period of treatment and postoperative radiotherapy status)

Factors affecting fertilisation and early embryo quality in single- and superovulated dairy cattle

Data on fertilisation and embryo quality in dairy cattle are presented and the main factors responsible for the low fertility of single-ovulating lactating cows and embryo yield in superovulated dairy cattle are highlighted. During the past 50 years, the fertility in high-producing lactating dairy cattle has decreased as milk production increased. Recent data show conception rates to first service to be approximately 32% in lactating cows, whereas in heifers it has remained above 50%. Fertilisation does not seem to be the principal factor responsible for the low fertility in single-ovulating cows, because it has remained above 80%. Conversely, early embryonic development is impaired in high-producing dairy cows, as observed by most embryonic losses occurring during the first week after fertilisation. However, in superovulated dairy cattle, although fertilisation failure is more pronounced, averaging approximately 45%, the percentage of fertilised embryos viable at 1 week is quite high (>70%). Among the multifactorial causes of low fertility in lactating dairy cows, high feed intake associated with low concentrations of circulating steroids may contribute substantially to reduced embryo quality. Fertilisation failure in superovulated cattle may be a consequence of inappropriate gamete transport due to hormonal imbalances.

Pharmacokinetics of tetracycline in plasma, synovial fluid and milk using single intravenous and single intravenous regional doses in dairy cattle with papillomatous digital dermatitis

The purpose of this study was to compare the pharmacokinetics of tetracycline in plasma, synovial fluid, and milk following either a single systemic intravenous (i.v.) injection or a single i.v. regional antibiosis (IVRA) administration of tetracycline hydrochloride to dairy cattle with papillomatous digital dermatitis (PDD). To this end, plasma and synovial fluid tetracycline concentrations were compared with the minimal inhibitory concentration (MIC) values of the major bacteria, which are known to cause digital diseases and thus assess its efficacy in PDD. Residual tetracycline concentrations in milk from cows treated by both methods were also determined. Twelve Holstein cows with various stages of PDD were randomly assigned to two groups of six animals. Group 1 received a single systemic i.v. injection of 10 mg/kg of tetracycline hydrochloride. Group 2 received 1000 mg of tetracycline hydrochloride by IVRA of the affected limb. Blood, synovial fluid and milk samples were taken prior to tetracycline administration (time 0 control), and then at 22, 45 and 82 min, and 2, 3, 4, 6, 8, 12, 24, 48, 72, 96, and 120 h following drug administration. Tetracycline concentrations were determined by high-performance liquid chromatography. Mean tetracycline plasma and milk concentrations in Group 1 were higher than Group 2. The opposite was observed for synovial fluid concentrations. Group 2 synovial fluid concentrations were higher than the MIC value over 24 h for the bacteria most frequently responsible for claw disease. Compared with i.v. administration, IVRA administration of tetracycline produced very high synovial fluid and low plasma and milk concentrations.

Chemical analysis of dairy cattle feed from Brazil

The bovine dairy cattle demand diets of high nutritional value being essential to know chemical composition of feed supplied to cows to achieve high levels of quality, safety and productivity of milk. Different roughages and concentrates from Minas Gerais and Rio Grande do Sul states, Brazil, were analyzed by instrumental neutron activation analysis (INAA) and inductively coupled plasma mass spectrometry (ICP-MS). Concentrate and roughage samples were differentiated by mass fractions of As, Ba, Mg, P, Rb and Sr. Samples of concentrate from both origins were differentiated by mass fractions of As, Cd, Co, Cr, Cs, Ni and Rb.

Prognostic value of NDRG1 and SPARC protein expression in breast cancer patients

An increasing number of studies have shown altered expression of secreted protein acidic and rich in cysteine (SPARC) and N-myc down-regulated gene (NDRG1) in several malignancies, including breast carcinoma; however, the role of these potential biomarkers in tumor development and progression is controversial. In this study, NDRG1 and SPARC protein expression was evaluated by immunohistochemistry on tissue microarrays containing breast tumor specimens from patients with 10 years of follow-up. NDRG1 and SPARC protein expression was determined in 596 patients along with other prognostic markers, such as ER, PR, and HER2. The status of NDRG1 and SPARC protein expression was correlated with prognostic variables and patient clinical outcome. Immunostaining revealed that 272 of the 596 cases (45.6%) were positive for NDRG1 and 431 (72.3%) were positive for SPARC. Statistically significant differences were found between the presence of SPARC and NDRG1 protein expression and standard clinicopathological variables. Kaplan-Meier analysis showed that NDRG1 positivity was directly associated with shorter disease-free survival (DFS, P < 0.001) and overall survival (OS, P < 0.001). In contrast, patients expressing low levels of SPARC protein had worse DFS (P = 0.001) and OS (P = 0.001) compared to those expressing high levels. Combined analysis of the two markers indicated that DFS (P < 0.001) and OS rates (P < 0.001) were lowest for patients with NDRG1-positive and SPARC-negative tumors. Furthermore, NDRG1 over-expression and SPARC down-regulation correlated with poor prognosis in patients with luminal A or triple-negative subtype breast cancer. On multivariate analysis using a Cox proportional hazards model, NDRG1 and SPARC protein expression were independent prognostic factors for both DFS and OS of breast cancer patients. These data indicate that NDRG1 over-expression and SPARC down-regulation could play important roles in breast cancer progression and serve as useful biomarkers to better define breast cancer prognosis.

Inquiry of antibodies anti-Neospora caninum in dairy cattle, dogs and rural workers of the south-west region of Mato Grosso State

Considering the importance of neosporosis in the animal health and production, the frequency of antibodies to Neospora caninum was evaluated in dairy cattle of the Southwestern region of Mato Grosso State, Brazil, in addition to serum samples obtained from dogs and humans living in the farms. A total of 1036 serum samples were analyzed, from which 932 were from dairy bovine females, 37 from dogs and 67 from humans, from 24 farms and examined by the indirect fluorescent antibody test (IFAT). Reactive human scrum samples were retested by Western-blotting to confirm the results. Antibodies to N. caninum were found in 499 cattle sera (53.5 %), with at least one positive in each farm, 25 dog sera (67.6 %) and seven human sera (10.5 %). There was no significant difference in the number of positive cattle sera according to age group. The results indicate a wide dissemination of N caninum in the studied region.