Coherent forecasting of multiple-decrement life tables: a test using Japanese cause of death data

Planners in public and private institutions would like coherent forecasts of the components of age-specic mortality, such as causes of death. This has been di cult to achieve because the relative values of the forecast components often fail to behave in a way that is coherent with historical experience. In addition, when the group forecasts are combined the result is often incompatible with an all-groups forecast. It has been shown that cause-specic mortality forecasts are pessimistic when compared with all-cause forecasts (Wilmoth, 1995). This paper abandons the conventional approach of using log mortality rates and forecasts the density of deaths in the life table. Since these values obey a unit sum constraint for both conventional single-decrement life tables (only one absorbing state) and multiple-decrement tables (more than one absorbing state), they are intrinsically relative rather than absolute values across decrements as well as ages. Using the methods of Compositional Data Analysis pioneered by Aitchison (1986), death densities are transformed into the real space so that the full range of multivariate statistics can be applied, then back-transformed to positive values so that the unit sum constraint is honoured. The structure of the best-known, single-decrement mortality-rate forecasting model, devised by Lee and Carter (1992), is expressed in compositional form and the results from the two models are compared. The compositional model is extended to a multiple-decrement form and used to forecast mortality by cause of death for Japan

Trends in aortic aneurysm- and dissection-related mortality in the state of Sao Paulo, Brazil, 1985-2009: multiple-cause-of-death analysis

Background: Aortic aneurysm and dissection are important causes of death in older people. Ruptured aneurysms show catastrophic fatality rates reaching near 80%. Few population-based mortality studies have been published in the world and none in Brazil. The objective of the present study was to use multiple-cause-of-death methodology in the analysis of mortality trends related to aortic aneurysm and dissection in the state of Sao Paulo, between 1985 and 2009. Methods: We analyzed mortality data from the Sao Paulo State Data Analysis System, selecting all death certificates on which aortic aneurysm and dissection were listed as a cause-of-death. The variables sex, age, season of the year, and underlying, associated or total mentions of causes of death were studied using standardized mortality rates, proportions and historical trends. Statistical analyses were performed by chi-square goodness-of-fit and H Kruskal-Wallis tests, and variance analysis. The joinpoint regression model was used to evaluate changes in age-standardized rates trends. A p value less than 0.05 was regarded as significant. Results: Over a 25-year period, there were 42,615 deaths related to aortic aneurysm and dissection, of which 36,088 (84.7%) were identified as underlying cause and 6,527 (15.3%) as an associated cause-of-death. Dissection and ruptured aneurysms were considered as an underlying cause of death in 93% of the deaths. For the entire period, a significant increased trend of age-standardized death rates was observed in men and women, while certain non-significant decreases occurred from 1996/2004 until 2009. Abdominal aortic aneurysms and aortic dissections prevailed among men and aortic dissections and aortic aneurysms of unspecified site among women. In 1985 and 2009 death rates ratios of men to women were respectively 2.86 and 2.19, corresponding to a difference decrease between rates of 23.4%. For aortic dissection, ruptured and non-ruptured aneurysms, the overall mean ages at death were, respectively, 63.2, 68.4 and 71.6 years; while, as the underlying cause, the main associated causes of death were as follows: hemorrhages (in 43.8%/40.5%/13.9%); hypertensive diseases (in 49.2%/22.43%/24.5%) and atherosclerosis (in 14.8%/25.5%/15.3%); and, as associated causes, their principal overall underlying causes of death were diseases of the circulatory (55.7%), and respiratory (13.8%) systems and neoplasms (7.8%). A significant seasonal variation, with highest frequency in winter, occurred in deaths identified as underlying cause for aortic dissection, ruptured and non-ruptured aneurysms. Conclusions: This study introduces the methodology of multiple-causes-of-death to enhance epidemiologic knowledge of aortic aneurysm and dissection in Sao Paulo, Brazil. The results presented confer light to the importance of mortality statistics and the need for epidemiologic studies to understand unique trends in our own population.

Trends in aortic aneurysm- and dissection-related mortality in the state of São Paulo, Brazil, 1985–2009: multiple-cause-of-death analysis

Background: Aortic aneurysm and dissection are important causes of death in older people. Ruptured aneurysms show catastrophic fatality rates reaching near 80%. Few population-based mortality studies have been published in the world and none in Brazil. The objective of the present study was to use multiple-cause-of-death methodology in the analysis of mortality trends related to aortic aneurysm and dissection in the state of Sao Paulo, between 1985 and 2009. Methods: We analyzed mortality data from the Sao Paulo State Data Analysis System, selecting all death certificates on which aortic aneurysm and dissection were listed as a cause-of-death. The variables sex, age, season of the year, and underlying, associated or total mentions of causes of death were studied using standardized mortality rates, proportions and historical trends. Statistical analyses were performed by chi-square goodness-of-fit and H Kruskal-Wallis tests, and variance analysis. The joinpoint regression model was used to evaluate changes in age-standardized rates trends. A p value less than 0.05 was regarded as significant. Results: Over a 25-year period, there were 42,615 deaths related to aortic aneurysm and dissection, of which 36,088 (84.7%) were identified as underlying cause and 6,527 (15.3%) as an associated cause-of-death. Dissection and ruptured aneurysms were considered as an underlying cause of death in 93% of the deaths. For the entire period, a significant increased trend of age-standardized death rates was observed in men and women, while certain non-significant decreases occurred from 1996/2004 until 2009. Abdominal aortic aneurysms and aortic dissections prevailed among men and aortic dissections and aortic aneurysms of unspecified site among women. In 1985 and 2009 death rates ratios of men to women were respectively 2.86 and 2.19, corresponding to a difference decrease between rates of 23.4%. For aortic dissection, ruptured and non-ruptured aneurysms, the overall mean ages at death were, respectively, 63.2, 68.4 and 71.6 years; while, as the underlying cause, the main associated causes of death were as follows: hemorrhages (in 43.8%/40.5%/13.9%); hypertensive diseases (in 49.2%/22.43%/24.5%) and atherosclerosis (in 14.8%/25.5%/15.3%); and, as associated causes, their principal overall underlying causes of death were diseases of the circulatory (55.7%), and respiratory (13.8%) systems and neoplasms (7.8%). A significant seasonal variation, with highest frequency in winter, occurred in deaths identified as underlying cause for aortic dissection, ruptured and non-ruptured aneurysms. Conclusions: This study introduces the methodology of multiple-causes-of-death to enhance epidemiologic knowledge of aortic aneurysm and dissection in São Paulo, Brazil. The results presented confer light to the importance of mortality statistics and the need for epidemiologic studies to understand unique trends in our own population.

Unique paleopathology in a pre-Columbian mummy remnant from Southern Peru--severe cervical rotation trauma with subluxation of the axis as cause of death

We describe the multidisciplinary findings in a pre-Columbian mummy head from Southern Peru (Cahuachi, Nazca civilisation, radiocarbon dating between 120 and 750 AD) of a mature male individual (40-60 years) with the first two vertebrae attached in pathological position. Accordingly, the atlanto-axial transition (C1/C2) was significantly rotated and dislocated at 38° angle associated with a bulging brownish mass that considerably reduced the spinal canal by circa 60%. Using surface microscopy, endoscopy, high-resolution multi-slice computer tomography, paleohistology and immunohistochemistry, we identified an extensive epidural hematoma of the upper cervical spinal canal-extending into the skull cavity-obviously due to a rupture of the left vertebral artery at its transition between atlas and skull base. There were no signs of fractures of the skull or vertebrae. Histological and immunohistochemical examinations clearly identified dura, brain residues and densely packed corpuscular elements that proved to represent fresh epidural hematoma. Subsequent biochemical analysis provided no evidence for pre-mortal cocaine consumption. Stable isotope analysis, however, revealed significant and repeated changes in the nutrition during his last 9 months, suggesting high mobility. Finally, the significant narrowing of the rotational atlanto-axial dislocation and the epidural hematoma probably caused compression of the spinal cord and the medulla oblongata with subsequent respiratory arrest. In conclusion, we suggest that the man died within a short period of time (probably few minutes) in an upright position with the head rotated rapidly to the right side. In paleopathologic literature, trauma to the upper cervical spine has as yet only very rarely been described, and dislocation of the vertebral bodies has not been presented.

Death by biscuit--exhumation, post-mortem CT, and revision of the cause of death one year after interment

We describe a case of exhumation, performed to investigate the circumstances and cause of death, one year after burial. Post mortem computed tomography (PMCT) revealed a mass in the pharynx. Imaging directed the subsequent forensic autopsy to careful retrieval of a foreign body. Histological analysis revealed a non-cellular composition. The detection of foreign material in the pharynx and its composition indicated accidental, rather than natural death, secondary to choking on food. This unusual case illustrates how post mortem imaging can significantly contribute to forensic investigation and stresses the importance of interdisciplinary collaboration between forensic pathologists and radiologists.

The effects of cause of death classification on prognostic assessment of patients with pulmonary embolism

Although previous studies have provided evidence that the majority of deaths following an acute pulmonary embolism (PE) directly relate to the PE, more recent registries and cohort studies suggest otherwise.

Drug suicide: a sex-equal cause of death in 16 European countries

Background There is a lack of international research on suicide by drug overdose as a preventable suicide method. Sex- and age-specific rates of suicide by drug self-poisoning (ICD-10, X60-64) and the distribution of drug types used in 16 European countries were studied, and compared with other self-poisoning methods (X65-69) and intentional self-injury (X70-84). Methods Data for 2000-04/05 were collected from national statistical offices. Age-adjusted suicide rates, and age and sex distributions, were calculated. Results No pronounced sex differences in drug self-poisoning rates were found, either in the aggregate data (males 1.6 and females 1.5 per 100,000) or within individual countries. Among the 16 countries, the range (from some 0.3 in Portugal to 5.0 in Finland) was wide. 'Other and unspecified drugs' (X64) were recorded most frequently, with a range of 0.2-1.9, and accounted for more than 70% of deaths by drug overdose in France, Luxembourg, Portugal and Spain. Psychotropic drugs (X61) ranked second. The X63 category ('other drugs acting on the autonomic nervous system') was least frequently used. Finland showed low X64 and high X61 figures, Scotland had high levels of X62 ('narcotics and hallucinogens, not elsewhere classified') for both sexes, while England exceeded other countries in category X60. Risk was highest among the middle-aged everywhere except in Switzerland, where the elderly were most at risk. Conclusions Suicide by drug overdose is preventable. Intentional self-poisoning with drugs kills as many males as females. The considerable differences in patterns of self-poisoning found in the various European countries are relevant to national efforts to improve diagnostics of suicide and appropriate specific prevention. The fact that vast majority of drug-overdose suicides came under the category X64 refers to the need of more detailed ICD coding system for overdose suicides is needed to permit better design of suicide-prevention strategies at national level.

Heart failure events, and case fatalities in Switzerland based on hospital statistics and cause of death statistics

In Switzerland there is a shortage of population-based information on heart failure (HF) incidence and case fatalities (CF). The aim of this study was to estimate HF event rates and both in- and out-of-hospital CF rates.

Stroke events, and case fatalities in Switzerland based on hospital statistics and cause of death statistics

OBJECTIVE: In Switzerland there is a shortage of population-based information on stroke incidence and case fatalities (CF). The aim of this study was to estimate stroke event rates and both in- and out-of-hospital CF rates. METHODS: Data on stroke diagnoses, coded according to I60-I64 (ICD 10), were taken from the Federal Hospital Discharge Statistics database (HOST) and the Cause of Death database (CoD) for the year 2004. The number of total stroke events and of age- and gender-specific and agestandardised event rates were estimated; overall CF, in-hospital and out-of-hospital, were determined. RESULTS: Among the overall number of 13 996 hospital discharges from stroke (HOST) the number was lower in women (n = 6736) than in men (n = 7260). A total of 3568 deaths (2137 women and 1431 men) due to stroke were recorded in the CoD database. The number of estimated stroke events was 15 733, and higher in women (n = 7933) than in men (n = 7800). Men presented significantly higher age-specific stroke event rates and a higher age-standardised event rate (178.7/100 000 versus 119.7/100 000). Overall CF rates were significantly higher for women (26.9%) than for men (18.4%). The same was true of out-of-hospital CF but not of in-hospital CF rates. CONCLUSION: The data on estimated stroke events obtained indicate that stroke discharge rate underestimates the stroke event rate. Out-of-hospital deaths from stroke accounted for the largest proportion of total stroke deaths. Sex differences in both number of total stroke events and deaths could be explained by the higher proportion of women than men aged 55+ in the Swiss population.

Pulmonary thromboembolism as cause of death on unenhanced postmortem 3T MRI

OBJECTIVES: To investigate unenhanced postmortem 3-T MR imaging (pmMRI) for the detection of pulmonary thrombembolism (PTE) as cause of death. METHODS: In eight forensic cases dying from a possible cardiac cause but with homogeneous myocardium at cardiac pmMRI, additional T2w imaging of the pulmonary artery was performed before forensic autopsy. Imaging was carried out on a 3-T MR system in the axial and main pulmonary artery adapted oblique orientation in situ. In three cases axial T2w pmMRI of the lower legs was added. Validation of imaging findings was performed during forensic autopsy. RESULTS: All eight cases showed homogeneous material of intermediate signal intensity within the main pulmonary artery and/or pulmonary artery branches. Autopsy confirmed the MR findings as pulmonary artery thrombembolism. At lower leg imaging unilateral dilated veins and subcutaneous oedema with or without homogeneous material of intermediate signal intensity within the popliteal vein were found. CONCLUSIONS: Unenhanced pmMRI demonstrates pulmonary thrombembolism in situ. PmMR may serve as an alternative to clinical autopsy, especially when consent cannot be obtained. KEY POINTS: • Postmortem MRI (pmMRI) provides an alternative to clinical autopsy • Fatal pulmonary thrombembolism (PTE) can now be diagnosed using postmortem MRI (pmMRI). • Special attention has to be drawn to the differentiation of postmortem clots.

Validity of verbal autopsy procedures for determining cause of death in Tanzania

Objectives: To validate verbal autopsy (VA) procedures for use in sample vital registration. Verbal autopsy is an important method for deriving cause-specific mortality estimates where disease burdens are greatest and routine cause-specific mortality data do not exist. Methods: Verbal autopsies and medical records (MR) were collected for 3123 deaths in the perinatal/neonatal period, post-neonatal < 5 age group, and for ages of 5 years and over in Tanzania. Causes of death were assigned by physician panels using the International Classification of Disease, revision 10. Validity was measured by: cause-specific mortality fractions (CSMF); sensitivity; specificity and positive predictive value. Medical record diagnoses were scored for degree of uncertainty, and sensitivity and specificity adjusted. Criteria for evaluating VA performance in generating true proportional mortality were applied. Results: Verbal autopsy produced accurate CSMFs for nine causes in different age groups: birth asphyxia; intrauterine complications; pneumonia; HIV/AIDS; malaria (adults); tuberculosis; cerebrovascular diseases; injuries and direct maternal causes. Results for 20 other causes approached the threshold for good performance. Conclusions: Verbal autopsy reliably estimated CSMFs for diseases of public health importance in all age groups. Further validation is needed to assess reasons for lack of positive results for some conditions.

Global, regional, and national life expectancy, all-cause mortality, and cause-specific mortality for 249 causes of death, 1980–2015 : a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2015

Causes of death and cardiovascular complications in adolescents and adults with congenitally malformed hearts: an autopsy study of 102 cases

Objectives: To identify the causes of death and main cardiovascular complications in adolescents and adults with congenitally malformed hearts. Design: Retrospective review of 102 necropsy reports from a tertiary centre obtained over a period of 19 years. Methods: The diagnosis, the operated or non-operated state of the main defect, the cause of death, and main complications were related to the age and gender. Other clinically relevant conditions, and identifiable sequels of previous diseases, were also noted. Results: The ages ranged from 15 to 69 years, with a mean of 31.1 and a median of 28 years, with no difference detected according to the gender. Of the patients, two-thirds had been submitted to at least one cardiac surgery. The mean age of death was significantly higher in non-operated patients (p = 0.003). The most prevalent cause of death in the whole group was related to recent surgery, found in one-third. From them, two-fifths corresponded to reoperations. Among the others, cardiac failure was the main terminal cause in another third, and the second cause was pulmonary thromboembolism in just over one-fifth, presenting a significant association with histopathological signs of pulmonary hypertension (p = 0.011). Infection was the cause of death in 7.8% of the patients, all previously operated. Acute infective endocarditis was present or was the indication for the recent surgery in one-tenth of the patients, this cohort having a mean age of 27.8 years. There was a statistically significant association between the occurrence of endocarditis and defects causing low pulmonary blood flow (p = 0.043). Conclusions: Data derived from necropsies of adults with congenital heart defects can help the multidisciplinary team refine both their diagnosis and treatment.

Evaluating Causes of Death in Familial Adenomatous Polyposis

Background Familial adenomatous polyposis is a genetic syndrome associated with an increased risk of colorectal cancer (CRC) and different extracolonic manifestations Goals The goal of this study is to evaluate the frequency of death causes Material and Methods Charts from 97 patients treated from 1977 to 2008 were reviewed Retrieved data and family information allowed us to classify causes of death in those related to CCR to other malignancies or other causes Results There were analyzed data from 46 men (47 4%) and 51 women (52 6%) with an average age of 35 1 years (14 to 82) At diagnosis, 57 patients (58 7%) already had CRC-associated polyposis There were performed 93 colectomies, one internal diversion, and one partial resection Two patients were not operated on Results from 19 deceased patients (19 5%) were analyzed CRC, other tumors (desmoid tumors, lymphoma, and gastric cancer), and other causes (complication of duodenal cancer surgery, complication after ileorectal anastomosis (IRA), and coronary disease) were responsible for 12 (63 1%), four (21 1%), and three (15 8%) of all deaths, respectively Death from CRC occurred in the context of either systemic, rectal, or pouch recurrence Desmoid disease was the second cause of death (10 5% of all causes), leading to a fatal outcome 22% of all patients who developed DT during the study period Upper digestive carcinomas were responsible for other two death cases Conclusions (1) CRC is still the most prevalent cause of death, (2) even after curative resections, CRC can cause death through rectal or pouch malignization, (3) long-term survival was also strongly related to the development of extracolonic neoplasia, especially desmoid tumors and gastroduodenal carcinoma, (4) our results raise the need for local improvement in familiar screening and help us to define follow-up strategies and patient-information standards