Humans and fire: changing relations in early agricultural and built environments in the Zagros, Iran, Iraq

Fire-centred studies have recently been highlighted as powerful avenues for investigation of energy flows and relations between humans, materials, environments and other species. The aim in this paper is to evaluate this potential first by reviewing the diverse theories and methods that can be applied to investigate the ecological and social significance of anthropogenic fire, and second by applying these to new and existing data sets in archaeology. This paper examines how fire-centred approaches can inform on one of the most significant step-changes in human lifeways and inter-relations with environment and other species – the transition from mobile hunting-gathering to more sedentary agriculture in a key heartland of change, the Zagros region of Iraq and Iran, c. 12,000–8,000 BP. In the review and case studies multiple links are investigated between human fire use and environment, ecology, energy use, technology, the built environment, health, social roles and relations, cultural practices and catastrophic events

Modeling and Experimental Aspects of Self-healing Bolted Joint through Shape Memory Alloy Actuators

Bolted joints are a form of mechanical coupling largely used in machinery due to their reliability and low cost. Failure of bolted joints can lead to catastrophic events, such as leaking, train derailments, aircraft crashes, etc. Most of these failures occur due to the reduction of the pre-load, induced by mechanical vibration or human errors in the assembly or maintenance process. This article investigates the application of shape memory alloy (SMA) washers as an actuator to increase the pre-load on loosened bolted joints. The application of SMA washer follows a structural health monitoring procedure to identify a damage (reduction in pre-load) occurrence. In this article, a thermo-mechanical model is presented to predict the final pre-load achieved using this kind of actuator, based on the heat input and SMA washer dimension. This model extends and improves on the previous model of Ghorashi and Inman [2004, "Shape Memory Alloy in Tension and Compression and its Application as Clamping Force Actuator in a Bolted Joint: Part 2 - Modeling," J. Intell. Mater. Syst. Struct., 15:589-600], by eliminating the pre-load term related to nut turning making the system more practical. This complete model is a powerful but complex tool to be used by designers. A novel modeling approach for self-healing bolted joints based on curve fitting of experimental data is presented. The article concludes with an experimental application that leads to a change in joint assembly to increase the system reliability, by removing the ceramic washer component. Further research topics are also suggested.

Regional hydroclimatic variability and Brazil's 2001 energy crisis

Purpose - This paper seeks to address the issue of persistent and widespread drought conditions during 2000 and 2001, which were the apparent cause of the decline of water levels in the reservoirs of Brazilian hydroelectric power plants. Design/methodology/approach - This issue is addressed here through a case study of the hydroclimatology of the Paraíba river basin, in Southeast Brazil, home to four large multi-purpose operational reservoirs. Findings - The data analysis shows that neither changes in the frequency nor magnitude of extreme hydrological events (droughts and floods) nor in annual rainfall amounts can be detected from the existing climate record. The explanation is consistent with the fact that the terrestrial water and energy cycles are tightly, and non-linearly, coupled through evapotranspiration. Research limitations/implications - Therefore small change in the seasonality of rainfall can have a significant impact on the basin's overall hydrologic regime, and thus on the availability of water resources. Originality/value - Often, adaptation and resilience to climate variability are discussed in the context of catastrophic events such as floods and droughts. This study suggests that a different type of impacts, those associated with subtle, yet persistent changes of seasonality in the terrestrial water cycle, cannot be ignored in studies of long-term sustainability of water resources. © Emerald Group Publishing Limited.

Ocorrência de eventos climáticos extremos e sua repercurssão sócio-ambiental no litoral norte paulista

Conselho Nacional de Desenvolvimento Científico e Tecnológico (CNPq)

Proposta de um procedimento metodológico para o estudo de problemas geoambientais com base em banco de dados de eventos atmosféricos severos

Coordenação de Aperfeiçoamento de Pessoal de Nível Superior (CAPES)

A zona de contato entre as formações Motuca e Sambaíba, Permo-Triássico da bacia do Parnaíba, regiões de Filadélfia (TO), Riachão (MA) e Loreto (MA)

O intervalo que compreende o final do Paleozóico e início do Mesozóico foi marcado por mudanças globais paleogeográficas e paleoclimáticas, em parte atribuídas a eventos catastróficos. A intensa continentalização do supercontinente Pangéia, com a implantação de extensos desertos, sucedeu os ambientes costeiros-plataformais do início do Permiano. Os registros desses eventos no norte do Brasil são encontrados nas bacias intracratônicas, particularmente na Bacia do Parnaíba, representados pela zona de contato entre as formações Motuca e Sambaíba. A Formação Motuca é constituída predominantemente por pelitos vermelhos laminados com lentes de gipsita, calcita e marga. Na porção leste da Bacia do Parnaíba, as fácies da Formação Motuca tornam-se mais arenosas com a ocorrência expressiva de arenitos com estratificação cruzada sigmoidal. A Formação Sambaíba consiste em arenitos de coloração creme alaranjada com estratificação plano-paralela e estratificação cruzada de médio a grande porte. Em geral, o contato entre as unidades é brusco, representado pela passagem de arenitos finos com laminação cruzada cavalgante e acamamento flaser/wavy da Formação Motuca para arenitos médios com falhas/microfalhas sinsedimentares e laminações convolutas da Formação Sambaíba. Foram individualizadas 14 fácies sedimentares, agrupadas em quatro associações: AF1 – Lacustre raso / Planície de lama (mudflat), AF2 – “Panela” salina (saline pan), AF3 – Lençol de areia e AF4 – Campo de dunas. A AF1 foi depositada dominantemente por processos de decantação em um extenso ambiente lacustre raso de baixa energia, influenciado por influxos esporádicos de areias oriundos de rios efêmeros. Este sistema lacustre foi, provavelmente, influenciado por períodos de contração e expansão, devido às variações das condições climáticas predominantemente áridas. Os mais expressivos períodos de contração ocorreram na porção oeste da Bacia do Parnaíba, representados pelo desenvolvimento de planícies de lama (mudflats) associadas a lagoas efêmeras saturadas em carbonatos e a “panelas” salinas (saline pans- AF2). Os lençóis de areia (AF3) são planícies arenosas extensas, localmente com área úmidas, intensamente retrabalhadas por processos eólicos. A AF4 é interpretada como parte de um erg composto por dunas/draas em zona saturada em areia, com interdunas secas subordinadas. Intervalos deformados lateralmente contínuos por centenas de quilômetros ocorrem na zona de contato entre as formações Motuca e Sambaíba. Pelitos com camadas contorcidas e brechadas (Formação Motuca) e arenitos com falhas/microfalhas sinsedimentares, laminação convoluta e diques de injeção preenchidos por argilitos (Formação Sambaíba) são interpretados como sismitos induzidos por terremotos de alta magnitude (>8 na escala Ritcher). Anomalias geoquímicas de elementos traços como Mn, Cr, Co, Cu e Ni na zona de contato entre as formações, juntamente com a presença de micropartículas de composição metálica na matriz argilosa dos sismitos, corroboram com impactos de meteoritos no limite c, possivelmente do astroblema Riachão.

Reconstituição paleoambiental das formações Motuca e Sambaíba, Permo-Triássico da Bacia do Parnaíba no sudoeste do Estado do Maranhão, Brasil

O intervalo que compreende o final do Paleozoico e início do Mesozoico foi marcado por mudanças globais paleogeográficas e paleoclimáticas, em parte atribuídas a eventos catastróficos. A intensa continentalização do supercontinente Pangeia, com a implantação de extensos desertos, sucedeu os ambientes costeiro-plataformais do início do Permiano. Os registros desses eventos no norte do Brasil são encontrados nas bacias intracratônicas, particularmente na sucessão Permotriássica da Bacia do Parnaíba. A análise de fácies e estratigráfica de afloramentos desta sucessão permitiu a individualização de 14 fácies sedimentares agrupadas em 4 associações de fácies (AF): AF1 e AF2, relacionadas aos depósitos da Formação Motuca, e AF3 e AF4, representativas da base da Formação Sambaíba. A AF1 - Lacustre raso/Mudflat consiste em pelitos vermelhos laminados com lentes de gipsita, calcita e marga, além de lobos de arenitos sigmoidais. A AF2 - Saline pan é constituída por corpos lenticulares de gipso laminado, gipso nodular e gipsarenito, sobrepostos por pelitos esverdeados com nódulos de dolomita e palygorskita. A AF3 - Lençol de areia e AF4 - Campo de dunas são formadas, respectivamente, por arenitos de coloração creme alaranjada com estratificação plano-paralela e estratificação cruzada de médio a grande porte. Destaca-se o registro de intervalos deformados lateralmente contínuos por centenas de quilômetros na zona de contato entre as formações Motuca e Sambaíba. Nestes, ocorrem pelitos com camadas contorcidas e brechadas (Formação Motuca) e arenitos com falhas/microfalhas sinsedimentares, laminação convoluta e diques de injeção preenchidos por argilitos (Formação Sambaíba), interpretados como sismitos induzidos por terremotos de alta magnitude (> 8 na escala Richter).

Estudo da formação de gelo não detectável em aeronaves de transporte

Coordenação de Aperfeiçoamento de Pessoal de Nível Superior (CAPES)

Studio di fenomeni d'instabilità gravitativa sui fondali marini, con particolare riferimento all'isola di Stromboli

In the last decade the interest for submarine instability grew up, driven by the increasing exploitation of natural resources (primary hydrocarbons), the emplacement of bottom-lying structures (cables and pipelines) and by the development of coastal areas, whose infrastructures increasingly protrude to the sea. The great interest for this topic promoted a number of international projects such as: STEAM (Sediment Transport on European Atlantic Margins, 93-96), ENAM II (European North Atlantic Margin, 96-99), GITEC (Genesis and Impact of Tsunamis on the European Coast 92-95), STRATAFORM (STRATA FORmation on Margins, 95-01), Seabed Slope Process in Deep Water Continental Margin (Northwest Gulf of Mexico, 96-04), COSTA (Continental slope Stability, 00-05), EUROMARGINS (Slope Stability on Europe’s Passive Continental Margin), SPACOMA (04-07), EUROSTRATAFORM (European Margin Strata Formation), NGI's internal project SIP-8 (Offshore Geohazards), IGCP-511: Submarine Mass Movements and Their Consequences (05-09) and projects indirectly related to instability processes, such as TRANSFER (Tsunami Risk ANd Strategies For the European region, 06-09) or NEAREST (integrated observations from NEAR shore sourcES of Tsunamis: towards an early warning system, 06-09). In Italy, apart from a national project realized within the activities of the National Group of Volcanology during the framework 2000-2003 “Conoscenza delle parti sommerse dei vulcani italiani e valutazione del potenziale rischio vulcanico”, the study of submarine mass-movement has been underestimated until the occurrence of the landslide-tsunami events that affected Stromboli on December 30, 2002. This event made the Italian Institutions and the scientific community more aware of the hazard related to submarine landslides, mainly in light of the growing anthropization of coastal sectors, that increases the vulnerability of these areas to the consequences of such processes. In this regard, two important national projects have been recently funded in order to study coastal instabilities (PRIN 24, 06-08) and to map the main submarine hazard features on continental shelves and upper slopes around the most part of Italian coast (MaGIC Project). The study realized in this Thesis is addressed to the understanding of these processes, with particular reference to Stromboli submerged flanks. These latter represent a natural laboratory in this regard, as several kind of instability phenomena are present on the submerged flanks, affecting about 90% of the entire submerged areal and often (strongly) influencing the morphological evolution of subaerial slopes, as witnessed by the event occurred on 30 December 2002. Furthermore, each phenomenon is characterized by different pre-failure, failure and post-failure mechanisms, ranging from rock-falls, to turbidity currents up to catastrophic sector collapses. The Thesis is divided into three introductive chapters, regarding a brief review of submarine instability phenomena and related hazard (cap. 1), a “bird’s-eye” view on methodologies and available dataset (cap. 2) and a short introduction on the evolution and the morpho-structural setting of the Stromboli edifice (cap. 3). This latter seems to play a major role in the development of largescale sector collapses at Stromboli, as they occurred perpendicular to the orientation of the main volcanic rift axis (oriented in NE-SW direction). The characterization of these events and their relationships with successive erosive-depositional processes represents the main focus of cap.4 (Offshore evidence of large-scale lateral collapses on the eastern flank of Stromboli, Italy, due to structurally-controlled, bilateral flank instability) and cap. 5 (Lateral collapses and active sedimentary processes on the North-western flank of Stromboli Volcano), represented by articles accepted for publication on international papers (Marine Geology). Moreover, these studies highlight the hazard related to these catastrophic events; several calamities (with more than 40000 casualties only in the last two century) have been, in fact, the direct or indirect result of landslides affecting volcanic flanks, as observed at Oshima-Oshima (1741) and Unzen Volcano (1792) in Japan (Satake&Kato, 2001; Brantley&Scott, 1993), Krakatau (1883) in Indonesia (Self&Rampino, 1981), Ritter Island (1888), Sissano in Papua New Guinea (Ward& Day, 2003; Johnson, 1987; Tappin et al., 2001) and Mt St. Augustine (1883) in Alaska (Beget& Kienle, 1992). Flank landslide are also recognized as the most important and efficient mass-wasting process on volcanoes, contributing to the development of the edifices by widening their base and to the growth of a volcaniclastic apron at the foot of a volcano; a number of small and medium-scale erosive processes are also responsible for the carving of Stromboli submarine flanks and the transport of debris towards the deeper areas. The characterization of features associated to these processes is the main focus of cap. 6; it is also important to highlight that some small-scale events are able to create damage to coastal areas, as also witnessed by recent events of Gioia Tauro 1978, Nizza, 1979 and Stromboli 2002. The hazard potential related to these phenomena is, in fact, very high, as they commonly occur at higher frequency with respect to large-scale collapses, therefore being more significant in terms of human timescales. In the last chapter (cap. 7), a brief review and discussion of instability processes identified on Stromboli submerged flanks is presented; they are also compared with respect to analogous processes recognized in other submerged areas in order to shed lights on the main factors involved in their development. Finally, some applications of multibeam data to assess the hazard related to these phenomena are also discussed.

Flash floods and their effects on the development in El-Qaá plain area in South Sinai, Egypt

The arid regions are dominated to a much larger degree than humid regions by major catastrophic events. Although most of Egypt lies within the great hot desert belt; it experiences especially in the north some torrential rainfall, which causes flash floods all over Sinai Peninsula. Flash floods in hot deserts are characterized by high velocity and low duration with a sharp discharge peak. Large sediment loads may be carried by floods threatening fields and settlements in the wadis and even people who are living there. The extreme spottiness of rare heavy rainfall, well known to desert people everywhere, precludes any efficient forecasting. Thus, although the limitation of data still reflects pre-satellite methods, chances of developing a warning system for floods in the desert seem remote. The relatively short flood-to-peak interval, a characteristic of desert floods, presents an additional impediment to the efficient use of warning systems. The present thesis contains introduction and five chapters, chapter one points out the physical settings of the study area. There are the geological settings such as outcrop lithology of the study area and the deposits. The alluvial deposits of Wadi Moreikh had been analyzed using OSL dating to know deposits and palaeoclimatic conditions. The chapter points out as well the stratigraphy and the structure geology containing main faults and folds. In addition, it manifests the pesent climate conditions such as temperature, humidity, wind and evaporation. Besides, it presents type of soils and natural vegetation cover of the study area using unsupervised classification for ETM+ images. Chapter two points out the morphometric analysis of the main basins and their drainage network in the study area. It is divided into three parts: The first part manifests the morphometric analysis of the drainage networks which had been extracted from two main sources, topographic maps and DEM images. Basins and drainage networks are considered as major influencing factors on the flash floods; Most of elements were studied which affect the network such as stream order, bifurcation ratio, stream lengths, stream frequency, drainage density, and drainage patterns. The second part of this chapter shows the morphometric analysis of basins such as area, dimensions, shape and surface. Whereas, the third part points the morphometric analysis of alluvial fans which form most of El-Qaá plain. Chapter three manifests the surface runoff through rainfall and losses analysis. The main subject in this chapter is rainfall which has been studied in detail; it is the main reason for runoff. Therefore, all rainfall characteristics are regarded here such as rainfall types, distribution, rainfall intensity, duration, frequency, and the relationship between rainfall and runoff. While the second part of this chapter concerns with water losses estimation by evaporation and infiltration which are together the main losses with direct effect on the high of runoff. Finally, chapter three points out the factors influencing desert runoff and runoff generation mechanism. Chapter four is concerned with assessment of flood hazard, it is important to estimate runoff and tocreate a map of affected areas. Therefore, the chapter consists of four main parts; first part manifests the runoff estimation, the different methods to estimate runoff and its variables such as runoff coefficient lag time, time of concentration, runoff volume, and frequency analysis of flash flood. While the second part points out the extreme event analysis. The third part shows the map of affected areas for every basin and the flash floods degrees. In this point, it has been depending on the DEM to extract the drainage networks and to determine the main streams which are normally more dangerous than others. Finally, part four presets the risk zone map of total study area which is of high inerest for planning activities. Chapter five as the last chapter concerns with flash flood Hazard mitigation. It consists of three main parts. First flood prediction and the method which can be used to predict and forecast the flood. The second part aims to determine the best methods which can be helpful to mitigate flood hazard in the arid zone and especially the study area. Whereas, the third part points out the development perspective for the study area indicating the suitable places in El-Qaá plain for using in economic activities.

Land use management in mountainous areas: combining ground-based and EO (Earth Observation) data to investigate the shallow landsliding susceptibility in the Duron valley (Trento, Italy).

Throughout the alpine domain, shallow landslides represent a serious geologic hazard, often causing severe damages to infrastructures, private properties, natural resources and in the most catastrophic events, threatening human lives. Landslides are a major factor of landscape evolution in mountainous and hilly regions and represent a critical issue for mountainous land management, since they cause loss of pastoral lands. In several alpine contexts, shallow landsliding distribution is strictly connected to the presence and condition of vegetation on the slopes. With the aid of high-resolution satellite images, it's possible to divide automatically the mountainous territory in land cover classes, which contribute with different magnitude to the stability of the slopes. The aim of this research is to combine EO (Earth Observation) land cover maps with ground-based measurements of the land cover properties. In order to achieve this goal, a new procedure has been developed to automatically detect grass mantle degradation patterns from satellite images. Moreover, innovative surveying techniques and instruments are tested to measure in situ the shear strength of grass mantle and the geomechanical and geotechnical properties of these alpine soils. Shallow landsliding distribution is assessed with the aid of physically based models, which use the EO-based map to distribute the resistance parameters across the landscape.

Incidence and risk factors of homicide-suicide in Swiss households: National Cohort study

BACKGROUND Homicide-suicides are rare but catastrophic events. This study examined the epidemiology of homicide-suicide in Switzerland. METHODS The study identified homicide-suicide events 1991-2008 in persons from the same household in the Swiss National Cohort, which links census and mortality records. The analysis examined the association of the risk of dying in a homicide-suicide event with socio-demographic variables, measured at the individual-level, household composition variables and area-level variables. Proportional hazards regression models were calculated for male perpetrators and female victims. Results are presented as age-adjusted hazard ratios (HR) with 95% confidence intervals (95%CI). RESULTS The study identified 158 deaths from homicide-suicide events, including 85 murder victims (62 women, 4 men, 19 children and adolescents) and 68 male and 5 female perpetrators. The incidence was 3 events per million households and year. Firearms were the most prominent method for both homicides and suicides. The risk of perpetrating homicide-suicide was higher in divorced than in married men (HR 3.64; 95%CI 1.56-8.49), in foreigners without permanent residency compared to Swiss citizens (HR 3.95; 1.52-10.2), higher in men without religious affiliations than in Catholics (HR 2.23; 1.14-4.36) and higher in crowded households (HR 4.85; 1.72-13.6 comparing ≥2 with <1 persons/room). There was no association with education, occupation or nationality, the number of children, the language region or degree of urbanicity. Associations were similar for female victims. CONCLUSIONS This national longitudinal study shows that living conditions associated with psychological stress and lower levels of social support are associated with homicide-suicide events in Switzerland.

Alarm systems and catastrophes from a diverse point of view

Using a chain of urns, we build a Bayesian nonparametric alarm system to predict catastrophic events, such as epidemics, black outs, etc. Differently from other alarm systems in the literature, our model is constantly updated on the basis of the available information, according to the Bayesian paradigm. The papers contains both theoretical and empirical results. In particular, we test our alarm system on a well-known time series of sunspots.

The largest floods in the High Rhine basin since 1268 assessed from documentary and instrumental evidence

The magnitudes of the largest known floods of the River Rhine in Basel since 1268 were assessed using a hydraulic model drawing on a set of pre-instrumental evidence and daily hydrological measurements from 1808. The pre-instrumental evidence, consisting of flood marks and documentary data describing extreme events with the customary reference to specific landmarks, was “calibrated” by comparing it with the instrumental series for the overlapping period between the two categories of evidence (1808–1900). Summer (JJA) floods were particularly frequent in the century between 1651–1750, when precipitation was also high. Severe winter (DJF) floods have not occurred since the late 19th century despite a significant increase in winter precipitation. Six catastrophic events involving a runoff greater than 6000 m 3 s-1 are documented prior to 1700. They were initiated by spells of torrential rainfall of up to 72 h (1480 event) and preceded by long periods of substantial precipitation that saturated the soils, and/or by abundant snowmelt. All except two (1999 and 2007) of the 43 identified severe events (SEs: defined as having runoff > 5000 and < 6000 m 3 s -1) occurred prior to 1877. Not a single SE is documented from 1877 to 1998. The intermediate 121-year-long “flood disaster gap” is unique over the period since 1268. The effect of river regulations (1714 for the River Kander; 1877 for the River Aare) and the building of reservoirs in the 20th century upon peak runoff were investigated using a one-dimensional hydraulic flood-routing model. Results show that anthropogenic effects only partially account for the “flood disaster gap” suggesting that variations in climate should also be taken into account in explaining these features.

Avalanche risk assessment - a multi-temporal approach, results from Galtür, Austria

Snow avalanches pose a threat to settlements and infrastructure in alpine environments. Due to the catastrophic events in recent years, the public is more aware of this phenomenon. Alpine settlements have always been confronted with natural hazards, but changes in land use and in dealing with avalanche hazards lead to an altering perception of this threat. In this study, a multi-temporal risk assessment is presented for three avalanche tracks in the municipality of Galtür, Austria. Changes in avalanche risk as well as changes in the risk-influencing factors (process behaviour, values at risk (buildings) and vulnerability) between 1950 and 2000 are quantified. An additional focus is put on the interconnection between these factors and their influence on the resulting risk. The avalanche processes were calculated using different simulation models (SAMOS as well as ELBA+). For each avalanche track, different scenarios were calculated according to the development of mitigation measures. The focus of the study was on a multi-temporal risk assessment; consequently the used models could be replaced with other snow avalanche models providing the same functionalities. The monetary values of buildings were estimated using the volume of the buildings and average prices per cubic meter. The changing size of the buildings over time was inferred from construction plans. The vulnerability of the buildings is understood as a degree of loss to a given element within the area affected by natural hazards. A vulnerability function for different construction types of buildings that depends on avalanche pressure was used to assess the degree of loss. No general risk trend could be determined for the studied avalanche tracks. Due to the high complexity of the variations in risk, small changes of one of several influencing factors can cause considerable differences in the resulting risk. This multi-temporal approach leads to better understanding of the today's risk by identifying the main changes and the underlying processes. Furthermore, this knowledge can be implemented in strategies for sustainable development in Alpine settlements.