Agricultural intensification, priming for persistence and the emergence of Nipah virus: a lethal bat-borne zoonosis

Emerging zoonoses threaten global health, yet the processes by which they emerge are complex and poorly understood. Nipah virus (NiV) is an important threat owing to its broad host and geographical range, high case fatality, potential for human-to-human transmission and lack of effective prevention or therapies. Here, we investigate the origin of the first identified outbreak of NiV encephalitis in Malaysia and Singapore. We analyse data on livestock production from the index site (a commercial pig farm in Malaysia) prior to and during the outbreak, on Malaysian agricultural production, and from surveys of NiV's wildlife reservoir (flying foxes). Our analyses suggest that repeated introduction of NiV from wildlife changed infection dynamics in pigs. Initial viral introduction produced an explosive epizootic that drove itself to extinction but primed the population for enzootic persistence upon reintroduction of the virus. The resultant within-farm persistence permitted regional spread and increased the number of human infections. This study refutes an earlier hypothesis that anomalous El Nino Southern Oscillation-related climatic conditions drove emergence and suggests that priming for persistence drove the emergence of a novel zoonotic pathogen. Thus, we provide empirical evidence for a causative mechanism previously proposed as a precursor to widespread infection with H5N1 avian influenza and other emerging pathogens.

Nipah Virus in the Fruit Bat Pteropus vampyrus in Sumatera, Indonesia

Nipah virus causes periodic livestock and human disease with high case fatality rate, and consequent major economic, social and psychological impacts. Fruit bats of the genus Pteropus are the natural reservoir. In this study, we used real time PCR to screen the saliva and urine of P. vampyrus from North Sumatera for Nipah virus genome. A conventional reverse transcriptase (RT-PCR) assay was used on provisionally positive samples to corroborate findings. This is the first report of Nipah virus detection in P. vampyrus in Sumatera, Indonesia.

Epidemiology of candidemia in Finland

Candida species are an important cause of nosocomial bloodstream infections in hospitalized patients worldwide, with associated high mortality, excess length of stay and costs. Main contributors to candidemias is profound immunosuppression due to serious underlying condition or intensive treatments leading to an increasing number of susceptible patients. The rank order of causative Candida species varies over time and in different geographic locations. The aim of this study was to obtain information on epidemiology of candidemia in Finland, to identify trends in incidence, causative species, and patient populations at risk. In order to reveal possible outbreaks and assess the value of one molecular typing method, restriction enzyme analysis (REA), in epidemiological study, we analyzed C. albicans bloodstream isolates in Uusimaa region in Southern Finland during eight years. The data from the National Infectious Disease Register were used to assess the incidence and epidemiological features of candidemia cases. In Helsinki University Central Hospital (HUCH) all patients with blood culture yielding any Candida spp. were identified from laboratory log-books and from Finnish Hospital Infection Program. All the patients with a stored blood culture isolate of C. albicans were identified through microbiology laboratory logbooks, and stored isolates were genotyped with REA in the National Institute for Health and Welfare (former KTL). The incidence of candidemia in Finland is globally relatively low, but increased between between 1990s and 2000s. The incidence was highest in males >65 years of age, but incidence rates for patients <1-15 years were lower during 2000s than during 1990s. In HUCH the incidence of candidemia remained low and constant during our 18 years of observation, but a significant shift in patient-populations at risk was observed, associated with patients treated in intensive care units, such as premature neonates and surgical patients. The predominating causative species in Finland and in HUCH is C. albicans, but the proportion of C. glabrata increased considerably. The crude one-month case fatality was constantly high between 28-33%. REA differentiated efficiently between C. albicans blood culture isolates and no clusters were observed in the hospitals involved, despite of abundant transfer of patients among them. Candida spp. are an important cause of nosocomial blood stream infections in Finland, and continued surveillance is necessary to determine the overall trends and patient groups at risk, and reduce the impact of these infections in the future. Molecular methods provide an efficient tool for investigation of suspected outbreak and should be available in the future in Finland, also.

PERFECT Stroke : PERFormance, Effectiveness, and Costs of treatment episodes in Stroke

Stroke is a major cause of death and disability, incurs significant costs to healthcare systems, and inflicts severe burden to the whole society. Stroke care in Finland has been described in several population-based studies between 1967 and 1998, but not since. In the PERFECT Stroke study presented here, a system for monitoring the Performance, Effectiveness, and Costs of Treatment episodes in Stroke was developed in Finland. Existing nationwide administrative registries were linked at individual patient level with personal identification numbers to depict whole episodes of care, from acute stroke, through rehabilitation, until the patients went home, were admitted to permanent institutional care, or died. For comparisons in time and between providers, patient case-mix was adjusted for. The PERFECT Stroke database includes 104 899 first-ever stroke patients over the years 1999 to 2008, of whom 79% had ischemic stroke (IS), 14% intracerebral hemorrhage (ICH), and 7% subarachnoid hemorrhage (SAH). A 18% decrease in the age and sex adjusted incidence of stroke was observed over the study period, 1.8% improvement annually. All-cause 1-year case-fatality rate improved from 28.6% to 24.6%, or 0.5% annually. The expected median lifetime after stroke increased by 2 years for IS patients, to 7 years and 7 months, and by 1 year for ICH patients, to 4 years 5 months. No change could be seen in median SAH patient survival, >10 years. Stroke prevalence was 82 000, 1.5% of total population of Finland, in 2008. Modern stroke center care was shown to be associated with a decrease in both death and risk of institutional care of stroke patients. Number needed to treat to prevent these poor outcomes at one year from stroke was 32 (95% confidence intervals 26 to 42). Despite improvements over the study period, more than a third of Finnish stroke patients did not have access to stroke center care. The mean first-year healthcare cost of a stroke patient was ~20 000 , and among survivors ~10 000 annually thereafter. Only part of this cost was incurred by stroke, as the same patients cost ~5000 over the year prior to stroke. Total lifetime costs after first-ever stroke were ~85 000 . A total of 1.1 Billion , 7% of all healthcare expenditure, is used in the treatment of stroke patients annually. Despite a rapidly aging population, the number of new stroke patients is decreasing, and the patients are more likely to survive. This is explained in part by stroke center care, which is effective, and should be made available for all stroke patients. It is possible, in a suitable setting with high-quality administrative registries and a common identifier, to avoid the huge workload and associated costs of setting up a conventional stroke registry, and still acquire a fairly comprehensive dataset on stroke care and outcome.

Long-Term Excess Mortality after Aneurysmal Subarachnoid Hemorrhage

Objective There is high case-fatality rate and loss of productive life-years related to aneurysmal subarachnoid hemorrhage (aSAH) but little data on long-term survival of SAH patients. We aim to evaluate long-term excess mortality and related risk factors after aSAH. Methods One year survivors (n=3080) after aSAH from Department of Neurosurgery in Helsinki between 1980 and 2007 were reviewed for this retrospective follow-up study. Follow-up started one year after SAH and continued until death or the end of 2008 (36 960 patient-years). Mortality and relative survival ratio (RSR) were compared with matched general population. Results After 20 years, survivors of aSAH showed 18% excess mortality compared to general population. Risk factors included: old age; poor preoperative clinical condition; conservative aneurysm treatment; multiple aneurysms; and unfavourable clinical outcome at 3 months. Conclusion Even after initially favourable recovery, patients with aSAH experience excess mortality in the long run. Cardiovascular and cerebrovascular diseases are prominent in this population.

Vaccination and All Cause Child Mortality 1985-2011: Global Evidence from the Demographic and Health Surveys

Based on models with calibrated parameters for infection, case fatality rates, and vaccine efficacy, basic childhood vaccinations have been estimated to be highly cost effective. We estimate the association of vaccination with mortality directly from survey data. Using 149 cross-sectional Demographic and Health Surveys, we determine the relationship between vaccination coverage and under five mortality at the survey cluster level. Our data include approximately one million children in 68,490 clusters in 62 countries. We consider the childhood measles, Bacille Calmette-Guérin (BCG), Diphtheria-Pertussis-Tetanus (DPT), Polio, and maternal tetanus vaccinations. Using modified Poisson regression to estimate the relative risk of child mortality in each cluster, we also adjust for selection bias caused by the vaccination status of dead children not being reported. Childhood vaccination, and in particular measles and tetanus vaccination, is associated with substantial reductions in childhood mortality. We estimate that children in clusters with complete vaccination coverage have relative risk of mortality 0.73 (95% Confidence Interval: 0.68, 0.77) that of children in a cluster with no vaccination. While widely used, basic vaccines still have coverage rates well below 100% in many countries, and our results emphasize the effectiveness of increasing their coverage rates in order to reduce child mortality.

Cenários de impacto de uma eventual pandemia de gripe na população portuguesa : morbilidade, mortalidade e necessidade de cuidados de saúde

RESUMO - Introdução — O presente estudo descreve os cenários de impacto que uma eventual pandemia de gripe poderá ter na população portuguesa e nos serviços de saúde. Trata-se de uma versão actualizada dos cenários preliminares que têm vindo a ser elaborados e discutidos desde 2005. Material e métodos — Os cenários assumem que a pandemia ocorrerá em duas ondas das quais a primeira (taxa de ataque: 10%) será menos intensa do que a segunda (taxas de ataque: 20%, 25% ou 30%). Neste trabalho são descritos apenas os cenários respeitantes à situação mais grave (taxa de ataque global = 10% + 30%). A elaboração dos cenários utilizou o método proposto por Meltzer, M. I., Cox, N. J. e Fukuda, K. (1999) mas com quase todos os parâmetros adaptados à população portuguesa. Esta adaptação incidiu sobre: 1. duração da pandemia; 2. taxa de letalidade; 3. percentagem da população com risco elevado de complicações; 4. percentagem de doentes com suspeita de gripe que procurará consulta; 5. tempo entre o início dos sintomas e a procura de cuidados; 6. percentagem de doentes que terá acesso efectivo a antiviral; 7. taxa de hospitalização por gripe e tempo médio de hospitalização; 8. percentagem de doentes hospitalizados que necessitarão de cuidados intensivos (CI) e tempo de internamento em CI; 9. efectividade de oseltamivir para evitar complicações e morte. Resultados — Os cenários correspondentes à situação mais grave (taxa de ataque global: 10% + 30%) são apresentados sem qualquer intervenção e, também, com utilização de oseltamivir para fins terapêuticos. Os resultados sem intervenção para o cenário «provável» indicam: • número total de casos — 4 142 447; • número total de indivíduos a necessitar de consulta — 5 799 426; • número total de hospitalizações — 113 712; • número total de internamentos em cuidados intensivos — 17 057; • número total de óbitos — 32 051; • número total de óbitos, nas semanas com valor máximo — 1.a onda: 2551, 2.a onda: 7651. Quando os cenários foram simulados entrando em linha de conta com a utilização de oseltamivir (considerando uma efectividade de 10% e 30%), verificou-se uma redução dos valores dos óbitos e hospitalizações calculados. O presente artigo também apresenta a distribuição semanal, no período de desenvolvimento da pandemia, dos vários resultados obtidos. Discussão — Os resultados apresentados devem ser interpretados como «cenários» e não como «previsões». De facto, as incertezas existentes em relação à doença e ao seu agente não permitem prever com rigor suficiente os seus impactos sobre a população e sobre os serviços de saúde. Por isso, os cenários agora apresentados servem, sobretudo, para fins de planeamento. Assim, a preparação da resposta à eventual pandemia pode ser apoiada em valores cujas ordens de grandeza correspondem às situações de mais elevada gravidade. Desta forma, a sua utilização para outros fins é inadequada e é vivamente desencorajada pelos autores.

Pitiose em animais de produção no Pantanal Matogrossense

Coordenação de Aperfeiçoamento de Pessoal de Nível Superior (CAPES)

Influence of sedation on morbidity and mortality in the intensive care unit

CONTEXTO: Embora cerca de 30% a 50% dos pacientes hospitalizados em unidades de terapia intensiva (UTI) recebam algum tipo de sedativo, existe escassez de informações sobre efeitos adversos desta prática, especialmente no Brasil. Estes efeitos podem ser significantes e o uso de sedativos é associado a elevação de infecção e mortalidade, mesmo sendo difícil avaliar o impacto clínico deste procedimento. OBJETIVO: Avaliar o impacto da sedação sobre incidência de complicações e mortalidade em doentes graves durante internação em unidade de terapia intensiva. TIPO DE ESTUDO: Estudo prospectivo. LOCAL: Unidade de Terapia Intensiva Cirúrgica da Universidade Federal de São Paulo (UNIFESP) - Escola Paulista de Medicina. PARTICIPANTES: Após excluídos pacientes que permaneceram menos de 24 horas ou sem exames indispensáveis para o cálculo do índice de gravidade (APACHE II), restaram 307 pacientes. Estes foram divididos em dois grupos: Grupo Sedado e Grupo Não Sedado. Constatada heterogeneidade com relação ao APACHE II, foram pareados 97 sedados e 97 não sedados com idênticos índices de gravidade. VARIÁVEIS ESTUDADAS: Impacto da sedação e das técnicas sobre a mortalidade, tempo de internação, além da incidência de escara de decúbito ou pressão, trombose venosa profunda e infecção. RESULTADOS: Não houve diferença na incidência de trombose venosa profunda, entre os grupos Sedado e Não Sedado, enquanto que escara de decúbito foi significativamente maior nos sedados (p = 0,03). Infecção foi detectada em 45,4% dos pacientes com sedação e em 21,6% dos pacientes sem sedação (p = 0,006). A mortalidade para os pacientes que não receberam qualquer tipo de sedativo foi de 20,6% e, para aqueles que foram sedados durante a internação, foi de 52,6% (p < 0,0001). CONCLUSÕES: Conclui-se que a sedação está associada a maior duração da internação, morbidade e mortalidade significativas. Apesar da intensidade das associações encontradas, não é possível estabelecer relação causal entre sedação e mortalidade.

An assessment of the economic impact of climate change on the health sector In Jamaica

Climate change is a naturally occurring phenomenon in which the earth‘s climate goes through cycles of warming and cooling; these changes usually take place incrementally over millennia. Over the past century, there has been an anomalous increase in global temperature, giving rise to accelerated climate change. It is widely accepted that greenhouse gas emissions from human activities such as industries have contributed significantly to the increase in global temperatures. The existence and survival of all living organisms is predicated on the ability of the environment in which they live not only to provide conditions for their basic needs but also conditions suitable for growth and reproduction. Unabated climate change threatens the existence of biophysical and ecological systems on a planetary scale. The present study aims to examine the economic impact of climate change on health in Jamaica over the period 2011-2050. To this end, three disease conditions with known climate sensitivity and importance to Jamaican public health were modelled. These were: dengue fever, leptospirosis and gastroenteritis in children under age 5. Historical prevalence data on these diseases were obtained from the Ministry of Health Jamaica, the Caribbean Epidemiology Centre, the Climate Studies Group Mona, University of the West Indies Mona campus, and the Meteorological Service of Jamaica. Data obtained spanned a twelve-year period of 1995-2007. Monthly data were obtained for dengue and gastroenteritis, while for leptospirosis, the annual number of cases for 1995-2005 was utilized. The two SRES emission scenarios chosen were A2 and B2 using the European Centre Hamburg Model (ECHAM) global climate model to predict climate variables for these scenarios. A business as usual (BAU) scenario was developed using historical disease data for the period 2000-2009 (dengue fever and gastroenteritis) and 1995-2005 (leptospirosis) as the reference decades for the respective diseases. The BAU scenario examined the occurrence of the diseases in the absence of climate change. It assumed that the disease trend would remain unchanged over the projected period and the number of cases of disease for each decade would be the same as the reference decade. The model used in the present study utilized predictive empirical statistical modelling to extrapolate the climate/disease relationship in time, to estimate the number of climate change-related cases under future climate change scenarios. The study used a Poisson regression model that considered seasonality and lag effects to determine the best-fit model in relation to the diseases under consideration. Zhang and others (2008), in their review of climate change and the transmission of vector-borne diseases, found that: ―Besides climatic variables, few of them have included other factors that can affect the transmission of vector-borne disease….‖ (Zhang 2008) Water, sanitation and health expenditure are key determinants of health. In the draft of the second communication to IPCC, Jamaica noted the vulnerability of public health to climate change, including sanitation and access to water (MSJ/UNDP, 2009). Sanitation, which in its broadest context includes the removal of waste (excreta, solid, or other hazardous waste), is a predictor of vector-borne diseases (e.g. dengue fever), diarrhoeal diseases (such as gastroenteritis) and zoonoses (such as leptospirosis). In conceptualizing the model, an attempt was made to include non-climate predictors of these climate-sensitive diseases. The importance of sanitation and water access to the control of dengue, gastroenteritis and leptospirosis were included in the Poisson regression model. The Poisson regression model obtained was then used to predict the number of disease cases into the future (2011-2050) for each emission scenario. After projecting the number of cases, the cost associated with each scenario was calculated using four cost components. 1. Treatment cost morbidity estimate. The treatment cost for the number of cases was calculated using reference values found in the literature for each condition. The figures were derived from studies of the cost of treatment and represent ambulatory and non-fatal hospitalized care for dengue fever and gastroenteritis. Due to the paucity of published literature on the health care cost associated with leptospirosis, only the cost of diagnosis and antibiotic therapy were included in the calculation. 2. Mortality estimates. Mortality estimates are recorded as case fatality rates. Where local data were available, these were utilized. Where these were unavailable, appropriate reference values from the literature were used. 3. Productivity loss. Productivity loss was calculated using a human capital approach, by multiplying the expected number of productive days lost by the caregiver and/or the infected person, by GDP per capita per day (US$ 14) at 2008 GDP using 2008 US$ exchange rates. 4. No-option cost. The no-option cost refers to adaptation strategies for the control of dengue fever which are ongoing and already a part of the core functions of the Vector Control Division of the Ministry of Health, Jamaica. An estimated US$ 2.1 million is utilized each year in conducting activities to prevent the post-hurricane spread of vector borne diseases and diarrhoea. The cost includes public education, fogging, laboratory support, larvicidal activities and surveillance. This no-option cost was converted to per capita estimates, using population estimates for Jamaica up to 2050 obtained from the Statistical Institute of Jamaica (STATIN, 2006) and the assumption of one expected major hurricane per decade. During the decade 2000-2009, Jamaica had an average inflation of 10.4% (CIA Fact book, last updated May 2011). This average decadal inflation rate was applied to the no-option cost, which was inflated by 10% for each successive decade to adjust for changes in inflation over time.

Yellow fever: reemerging in the state of Sao Paulo, Brazil, 2009

OBJECTIVE: To describe the investigation of a sylvatic yellow fever outbreak in the state of Sao Paulo and the main control measures undertaken.METHODS: This is a descriptive study of a sylvatic yellow fever outbreak in the Southwestern region of the state from February to April 2009. Suspected and confirmed cases in humans and in non-human primates were evaluated. Entomological investigation in sylvatic environment involved capture at ground level and in the tree canopy to identify species and detect natural infections. Control measures were performed in urban areas to control Aedes aegypti. Vaccination was directed at residents living in areas with confirmed viral circulation and also at nearby cities according to national recommendation.RESULTS: Twenty-eight human cases were confirmed (39.3% case fatality rate) in rural areas of Sarutaia, Piraju, Tejupa, Avare, and Buri. The deaths of 56 non-human primates were also reported, 91.4% were Allouatta sp. Epizootics was confirmed in two non-human primates in the cities of Itapetininga and Buri. A total of 1,782 mosquitoes were collected, including Haemagogus leucocelaenus, Hg. janthinomys/capricornii, and Sabethes chloropterus, Sa. purpureus and Sa. undosus. Yellow fever virus was isolated from a group of Hg. Leucocelaenus from Buri. Vaccination was carried out in 49 cities, with a total of 1,018,705 doses. Nine serious post-vaccination adverse events were reported.CONCLUSIONS: The cases occurred between February and April 2009 in areas with no recorded yellow fever virus circulation in over 60 years. The outbreak region occurred outside the original recommended vaccination area with a high percentage of susceptible population. The fast adoption of control measures interrupted the human transmission within a month and the confirmation of viral circulation in humans, monkeys and mosquitoes. The results allowed the identification of new areas of viral circulation but further studies are required to clarify the dynamics of the spread of this disease.

Temporal, spatial and spatiotemporal analysis of the occurrence of visceral leishmaniasis in humans in the City of Birigui, State of São Paulo, from 1999 to 2012

Fundação de Amparo à Pesquisa do Estado de São Paulo (FAPESP)

Intervenções para aumentar adesão às precauçôes padrão e/ou baseadas nas vias de transmissão de micro-organismos aos cuidados do paciente: revisão sistemática de ensaios clínicos randomizados e não randomizados, séries temporais e estudos controlados antes e depois

Pós-graduação em Enfermagem - FMB

Meningococcal disease in the Sorocaba region, Sao Paulo State, Brazil, 1999-2008

The objective of this study was to describe the occurrence of meningococcal disease reported to the Regional Health Department in Sorocaba, Sao Paulo State, Brazil, from 1999 to 2008. Annual incidence of the disease was two cases per 100,000 inhabitants, with an increase from 2006 to 2008. Annual incidence rates were highest in the 0 to 4 year age bracket. Case-fatality was 21.8%, higher in the 0 to 4 year age bracket (26.4%), which also showed the highest incidence of the disease, and in the over 30-year age bracket (28%). Diagnosis was confirmed by laboratory test in 71% of cases (culture in 45.3%) and by clinical and epidemiological criteria in 22%. Serological groups were B in 45.7%, C in 47.3%, W135 in 3.7%, and Y in 1.5% of the identified cases, with a predominance of B from 1999 to 2003 and C from 2004 to 2008. The most frequent phenotypes were B:4, 7:P1.19,15 and C:23:P1.14-6. The results emphasize the need for regional surveillance of trends in the disease for early detection of outbreaks and monitoring circulating strains.

Educational levels and the functional dependence of ischemic stroke survivors

We evaluated the functional dependence of stroke survivors from the Study of Stroke Mortality and Morbidity, using the Rankin Scale. Out of 355 ischemic stroke survivors (with a mean age of 67.9 years), 40% had some functional dependence at 28 days and 34.4% had some functional dependence at 6 months. Most predictors of physical dependence were identified at 28 days. These predictors were: low levels of education [illiterate vs. >= 8 years of education, multivariate odds ratio (OR) = 3.7; 95% confidence interval (95%CI): 1.60-8.54] and anatomical stroke location (total anterior circulation infarct, OR = 16.9; 95%CI: 2.93-97.49). Low levels of education and ischemic brain injury influenced functional dependence in these stroke survivors. Our findings reinforce the necessity of developing strategies for the rehabilitation of stroke patients, more especially in formulating specific strategies for care and treatment of stroke survivors with low socioeconomic status.