Why have land use change models for the Amazon failed to capture the amount of deforestation over the last decade?

Land cover change in the Neotropics represents one of the major drivers of global environmental change. Several models have been proposed to explore future trajectories of land use and cover change, particularly in the Amazon. Despite the remarkable development of these tools, model results are still surrounded by uncertainties. None of the model projections available in the literature plausibly captured the overall trajectory of land use and cover change that has been observed in the Amazon over the last decade. In this context, this study aims to review and analyze the general structure of the land use models that have most recently been used to explore land use change in the Amazon, seeking to investigate methodological factors that could explain the divergence between the observed and projected rates, paying special attention to the land demand calculations. Based on this review, the primary limitations inherent to this type of model and the extent to which these limitations can affect the consistency of the projections will also be analyzed. Finally, we discuss potential drivers that could have influenced the recent dynamic of the land use system in the Amazon and produced the unforeseen land cover change trajectory observed in this period. In a complementary way, the primary challenges of the new generation of land use models for the Amazon are synthesized. (c) 2014 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Public acceptance of carbon dioxide capture and storage in a proposed demonstration area

With the rising levels of CO2 in the atmosphere, low-emission technologies with carbon dioxide capture and storage (CCS) provide one option for transforming the global energy infrastructure into a more environmentally, climate sustainable system. However, like many technology innovations, there is a social risk to the acceptance of CCS. This article presents the findings of an engagement process using facilitated workshops conducted in two communities in rural Queensland, Australia, where a demonstration project for IGCC with CCS has been announced. The findings demonstrate that workshop participants were concerned about climate change and wanted leadership from government and industry to address the issue. After the workshops, participants reported increased knowledge and more positive attitudes towards CCS, expressing support for the demonstration project to continue in their local area. The process developed is one that could be utilized around the world to successfully engage communities on the low carbon emission technology options.

Value creation and value capture fro open source software publisher : a new business model based on mutualisation

Key topics: Since the birth of the Open Source movement in the mid-80's, open source software has become more and more widespread. Amongst others, the Linux operating system, the Apache web server and the Firefox internet explorer have taken substantial market shares to their proprietary competitors. Open source software is governed by particular types of licenses. As proprietary licenses only allow the software's use in exchange for a fee, open source licenses grant users more rights like the free use, free copy, free modification and free distribution of the software, as well as free access to the source code. This new phenomenon has raised many managerial questions: organizational issues related to the system of governance that underlie such open source communities (Raymond, 1999a; Lerner and Tirole, 2002; Lee and Cole 2003; Mockus et al. 2000; Tuomi, 2000; Demil and Lecocq, 2006; O'Mahony and Ferraro, 2007;Fleming and Waguespack, 2007), collaborative innovation issues (Von Hippel, 2003; Von Krogh et al., 2003; Von Hippel and Von Krogh, 2003; Dahlander, 2005; Osterloh, 2007; David, 2008), issues related to the nature as well as the motivations of developers (Lerner and Tirole, 2002; Hertel, 2003; Dahlander and McKelvey, 2005; Jeppesen and Frederiksen, 2006), public policy and innovation issues (Jullien and Zimmermann, 2005; Lee, 2006), technological competitions issues related to standard battles between proprietary and open source software (Bonaccorsi and Rossi, 2003; Bonaccorsi et al. 2004, Economides and Katsamakas, 2005; Chen, 2007), intellectual property rights and licensing issues (Laat 2005; Lerner and Tirole, 2005; Gambardella, 2006; Determann et al., 2007). A major unresolved issue concerns open source business models and revenue capture, given that open source licenses imply no fee for users. On this topic, articles show that a commercial activity based on open source software is possible, as they describe different possible ways of doing business around open source (Raymond, 1999; Dahlander, 2004; Daffara, 2007; Bonaccorsi and Merito, 2007). These studies usually look at open source-based companies. Open source-based companies encompass a wide range of firms with different categories of activities: providers of packaged open source solutions, IT Services&Software Engineering firms and open source software publishers. However, business models implications are different for each of these categories: providers of packaged solutions and IT Services&Software Engineering firms' activities are based on software developed outside their boundaries, whereas commercial software publishers sponsor the development of the open source software. This paper focuses on open source software publishers' business models as this issue is even more crucial for this category of firms which take the risk of investing in the development of the software. Literature at last identifies and depicts only two generic types of business models for open source software publishers: the business models of ''bundling'' (Pal and Madanmohan, 2002; Dahlander 2004) and the dual licensing business models (Välimäki, 2003; Comino and Manenti, 2007). Nevertheless, these business models are not applicable in all circumstances. Methodology: The objectives of this paper are: (1) to explore in which contexts the two generic business models described in literature can be implemented successfully and (2) to depict an additional business model for open source software publishers which can be used in a different context. To do so, this paper draws upon an explorative case study of IdealX, a French open source security software publisher. This case study consists in a series of 3 interviews conducted between February 2005 and April 2006 with the co-founder and the business manager. It aims at depicting the process of IdealX's search for the appropriate business model between its creation in 2000 and 2006. This software publisher has tried both generic types of open source software publishers' business models before designing its own. Consequently, through IdealX's trials and errors, I investigate the conditions under which such generic business models can be effective. Moreover, this study describes the business model finally designed and adopted by IdealX: an additional open source software publisher's business model based on the principle of ''mutualisation'', which is applicable in a different context. Results and implications: Finally, this article contributes to ongoing empirical work within entrepreneurship and strategic management on open source software publishers' business models: it provides the characteristics of three generic business models (the business model of bundling, the dual licensing business model and the business model of mutualisation) as well as conditions under which they can be successfully implemented (regarding the type of product developed and the competencies of the firm). This paper also goes further into the traditional concept of business model used by scholars in the open source related literature. In this article, a business model is not only considered as a way of generating incomes (''revenue model'' (Amit and Zott, 2001)), but rather as the necessary conjunction of value creation and value capture, according to the recent literature about business models (Amit and Zott, 2001; Chresbrough and Rosenblum, 2002; Teece, 2007). Consequently, this paper analyses the business models from these two components' point of view.

Using digital storytelling to capture responses to the Apology

This article discusses a pilot project that adapted the methods of digital storytelling and oral history to capture a range of personal responses to the official Apology to Australia’s Indigenous Peoples delivered by Prime Minister Kevin Rudd on 13 February 2008. The project was an initiative of State Library of Queensland and resulted in a small collection of multimedia stories, incorporating a variety of personal and political perspectives. The article describes how the traditional digital storytelling workshop method was adapted for use in the project, and then proceeds to reflect on the outcomes and continuing life of the project. The article concludes by suggesting that aspects of the resultant model might be applied to other projects carried out by cultural institutions and community-based media organizations.

Trajectories of broadband : the coming, going and return of broadband

As the paper’s subtitle suggests broadband has had a remarkably checkered trajectory in Australia. It was synonymous with the early 1990s information superhighway and seemed to presage a moment in which “content is [to be] king”. It disappeared almost entirely as a public priority in the mid to late 1990s as intrastructure and content were disconnected in services frameworks focused on information and communication technologies. And it came back in the 2000s as a critical infrastructure for innovation and the knowledge economy. But this time content was not king but rather an intermediate input at the service of innovating industries and processes. Broadband was a critical infrastructure for the digitally-based creative industries. Today the quality of the broadband infrastructure in Australia—itself an outcome of these different policy frameworks—is identified as “fraudband” holding back business, creativity and consumer uptake. In this paper I use the checkered trajectory of broadband on Australian political and policy horizons as a stepping off point to reflect on the ideas governing these changing governmental and public settings. This history enables me to explore how content and infrastructure are simultaneously connected and disconnected in our thinking. And, finally, I want to make some remarks about the way communication, particularly media communication, has been marginally positioned after being, initially so apparently central.

A brush with the real world : the future of inertial motion capture in live performance

3D Motion capture is a medium that plots motion, typically human motion, converting it into a form that can be represented digitally. It is a fast evolving field and recent inertial technology may provide new artistic possibilities for its use in live performance. Although not often used in this context, motion capture has a combination of attributes that can provide unique forms of collaboration with performance arts. The inertial motion capture suit used for this study has orientation sensors placed at strategic points on the body to map body motion. Its portability, real-time performance, ease of use, and its immunity from line-of-sight problems inherent in optical systems suggest it would work well as a live performance technology. Many animation techniques can be used in real-time. This research examines a broad cross-section of these techniques using four practice-led cases to assess the suitability of inertial motion capture to live performance. Although each case explores different visual possibilities, all make use of the performativity of the medium, using either an improvisational format or interactivity among stage, audience and screen that would be difficult to emulate any other way. A real-time environment is not capable of reproducing the depth and sophistication of animation people have come to expect through media. These environments take many hours to render. In time the combination of what can be produced in real-time and the tools available in a 3D environment will no doubt create their own tree of aesthetic directions in live performance. The case study looks at the potential of interactivity that this technology offers.

Inertial motion capture and live performance (with a focus on dance)

3D Motion capture is a fast evolving field and recent inertial technology may expand the artistic possibilities for its use in live performance. Inertial motion capture has three attributes that make it suitable for use with live performance; it is portable, easy to use and can operate in real-time. Using four projects, this paper discusses the suitability of inertial motion capture to live performance with a particular emphasis on dance. Dance is an artistic application of human movement and motion capture is the means to record human movement as digital data. As such, dance is clearly a field in which the use of real-time motion capture is likely to become more common, particularly as projected visual effects including real-time video are already often used in dance performances. Understandably, animation generated in real-time using motion capture is not as extensive or as clean as the highly mediated animation used in movies and games, but the quality is still impressive and the ‘liveness’ of the animation has compensating features that offer new ways of communicating with an audience.

Airborne vision-based collision-detection system

Machine vision represents a particularly attractive solution for sensing and detecting potential collision-course targets due to the relatively low cost, size, weight, and power requirements of vision sensors (as opposed to radar and TCAS). This paper describes the development and evaluation of a real-time vision-based collision detection system suitable for fixed-wing aerial robotics. Using two fixed-wing UAVs to recreate various collision-course scenarios, we were able to capture highly realistic vision (from an onboard camera perspective) of the moments leading up to a collision. This type of image data is extremely scarce and was invaluable in evaluating the detection performance of two candidate target detection approaches. Based on the collected data, our detection approaches were able to detect targets at distances ranging from 400m to about 900m. These distances (with some assumptions about closing speeds and aircraft trajectories) translate to an advanced warning of between 8-10 seconds ahead of impact, which approaches the 12.5 second response time recommended for human pilots. We overcame the challenge of achieving real-time computational speeds by exploiting the parallel processing architectures of graphics processing units found on commercially-off-the-shelf graphics devices. Our chosen GPU device suitable for integration onto UAV platforms can be expected to handle real-time processing of 1024 by 768 pixel image frames at a rate of approximately 30Hz. Flight trials using manned Cessna aircraft where all processing is performed onboard will be conducted in the near future, followed by further experiments with fully autonomous UAV platforms.

A hidden Markov model and relative entropy rate approach to vision-based dim target detection for UAV sense-and-avoid

Uninhabited aerial vehicles (UAVs) are a cutting-edge technology that is at the forefront of aviation/aerospace research and development worldwide. Many consider their current military and defence applications as just a token of their enormous potential. Unlocking and fully exploiting this potential will see UAVs in a multitude of civilian applications and routinely operating alongside piloted aircraft. The key to realising the full potential of UAVs lies in addressing a host of regulatory, public relation, and technological challenges never encountered be- fore. Aircraft collision avoidance is considered to be one of the most important issues to be addressed, given its safety critical nature. The collision avoidance problem can be roughly organised into three areas: 1) Sense; 2) Detect; and 3) Avoid. Sensing is concerned with obtaining accurate and reliable information about other aircraft in the air; detection involves identifying potential collision threats based on available information; avoidance deals with the formulation and execution of appropriate manoeuvres to maintain safe separation. This thesis tackles the detection aspect of collision avoidance, via the development of a target detection algorithm that is capable of real-time operation onboard a UAV platform. One of the key challenges of the detection problem is the need to provide early warning. This translates to detecting potential threats whilst they are still far away, when their presence is likely to be obscured and hidden by noise. Another important consideration is the choice of sensors to capture target information, which has implications for the design and practical implementation of the detection algorithm. The main contributions of the thesis are: 1) the proposal of a dim target detection algorithm combining image morphology and hidden Markov model (HMM) filtering approaches; 2) the novel use of relative entropy rate (RER) concepts for HMM filter design; 3) the characterisation of algorithm detection performance based on simulated data as well as real in-flight target image data; and 4) the demonstration of the proposed algorithm's capacity for real-time target detection. We also consider the extension of HMM filtering techniques and the application of RER concepts for target heading angle estimation. In this thesis we propose a computer-vision based detection solution, due to the commercial-off-the-shelf (COTS) availability of camera hardware and the hardware's relatively low cost, power, and size requirements. The proposed target detection algorithm adopts a two-stage processing paradigm that begins with an image enhancement pre-processing stage followed by a track-before-detect (TBD) temporal processing stage that has been shown to be effective in dim target detection. We compare the performance of two candidate morphological filters for the image pre-processing stage, and propose a multiple hidden Markov model (MHMM) filter for the TBD temporal processing stage. The role of the morphological pre-processing stage is to exploit the spatial features of potential collision threats, while the MHMM filter serves to exploit the temporal characteristics or dynamics. The problem of optimising our proposed MHMM filter has been examined in detail. Our investigation has produced a novel design process for the MHMM filter that exploits information theory and entropy related concepts. The filter design process is posed as a mini-max optimisation problem based on a joint RER cost criterion. We provide proof that this joint RER cost criterion provides a bound on the conditional mean estimate (CME) performance of our MHMM filter, and this in turn establishes a strong theoretical basis connecting our filter design process to filter performance. Through this connection we can intelligently compare and optimise candidate filter models at the design stage, rather than having to resort to time consuming Monte Carlo simulations to gauge the relative performance of candidate designs. Moreover, the underlying entropy concepts are not constrained to any particular model type. This suggests that the RER concepts established here may be generalised to provide a useful design criterion for multiple model filtering approaches outside the class of HMM filters. In this thesis we also evaluate the performance of our proposed target detection algorithm under realistic operation conditions, and give consideration to the practical deployment of the detection algorithm onboard a UAV platform. Two fixed-wing UAVs were engaged to recreate various collision-course scenarios to capture highly realistic vision (from an onboard camera perspective) of the moments leading up to a collision. Based on this collected data, our proposed detection approach was able to detect targets out to distances ranging from about 400m to 900m. These distances, (with some assumptions about closing speeds and aircraft trajectories) translate to an advanced warning ahead of impact that approaches the 12.5 second response time recommended for human pilots. Furthermore, readily available graphic processing unit (GPU) based hardware is exploited for its parallel computing capabilities to demonstrate the practical feasibility of the proposed target detection algorithm. A prototype hardware-in- the-loop system has been found to be capable of achieving data processing rates sufficient for real-time operation. There is also scope for further improvement in performance through code optimisations. Overall, our proposed image-based target detection algorithm offers UAVs a cost-effective real-time target detection capability that is a step forward in ad- dressing the collision avoidance issue that is currently one of the most significant obstacles preventing widespread civilian applications of uninhabited aircraft. We also highlight that the algorithm development process has led to the discovery of a powerful multiple HMM filtering approach and a novel RER-based multiple filter design process. The utility of our multiple HMM filtering approach and RER concepts, however, extend beyond the target detection problem. This is demonstrated by our application of HMM filters and RER concepts to a heading angle estimation problem.

Directing for the 360 degree frame : developing a directorial approach to performance capture

What happens when the traditional framing mechanisms of our performance environments are removed and we are forced as directors to work with actors in digital environments that capture performance in 360 degrees? As directors contend with the challenges of interactive performance, the emergence of the online audience and the powerful influence of the games industry, how can we approach the challenges of directing work that is performance captured and presented in real time using motion capture and associated 3D imaging software? The 360 degree real time capture of performance, while allowing for an unlimited amount of framing potential, demands a unique and uncompromisingly disciplined style of direction and performance that has thus far remained unstudied and unquantified. By a close analysis of the groundbreaking work of artists like Robert Zemeckis and the Wetta Digital studio it is possible to begin to quantify what the technical requirements and challenges of 360 degree direction might be, but little has been discovered about the challenges of communicating the unlimited potential of framing and focus to the actors who work with these directors within these systems. It cannot be argued that the potential of theatrical space has evolved beyond the physical and moved into a more accessible virtual and digitised form, so how then can we direct for this unlimited potential and where do we place the focus of our directed (and captured) performance?

A world elsewhere : virtual reality, motion capture and early modern theatre

This paper investigates virtual reality representations of the 1599 Boar’s Head Theatre and the Rose Theatre, two renaissance places and spaces. These models become a “world elsewhere” in that they represent virtual recreations of these venues in as much detail as possible. The models are based on accurate archeological and theatre historical records and are easy to navigate particularly for current use. This paper demonstrates the ways in which these models can be instructive for reading theatre today. More importantly we introduce human figures onto the stage via motion capture which allows us to explore the potential between space, actor and environment. This facilitates a new way of thinking about early modern playwrights’ “attitudes to locality and localities large and small”. These venues are thus activated to intersect productively with early modern studies so that the paper can test the historical and contemporary limits of such research.

The capture/retention investigation of a gross pollutant trap

A technique was developed to investigate the capture/retention characteristic of a gross pollutant trap (GPT) with fully and partially blocked internal screens. Custom modified spheres of variable density filled with liquid were released into the GPT inlet and monitored at the outlet. The outlet data shows that the capture/retention performances of a GPT with fully blocked screens deteriorate rapidly. During higher flow rates, screen blockages below 68% approach maximum efficiency. At lower flow rates, the high performance trend is reversed and the variation in behaviour of pollutants with different densities becomes more noticeable. Additional experiments with a second upstream inlet configured GPT showed an improved capture/retention performance. It was also noted that the bypass allows the incoming pollutants to escape when the GPT is blocked. This useful feature prevents upstream blockages between cleaning intervals.