Sampling stored-product insect pests : a comparison of four statistical sampling models for probability of pest detection

Background: Developing sampling strategies to target biological pests such as insects in stored grain is inherently difficult owing to species biology and behavioural characteristics. The design of robust sampling programmes should be based on an underlying statistical distribution that is sufficiently flexible to capture variations in the spatial distribution of the target species. Results: Comparisons are made of the accuracy of four probability-of-detection sampling models - the negative binomial model,1 the Poisson model,1 the double logarithmic model2 and the compound model3 - for detection of insects over a broad range of insect densities. Although the double log and negative binomial models performed well under specific conditions, it is shown that, of the four models examined, the compound model performed the best over a broad range of insect spatial distributions and densities. In particular, this model predicted well the number of samples required when insect density was high and clumped within experimental storages. Conclusions: This paper reinforces the need for effective sampling programs designed to detect insects over a broad range of spatial distributions. The compound model is robust over a broad range of insect densities and leads to substantial improvement in detection probabilities within highly variable systems such as grain storage.

Assessing the effects of line capture and barotrauma relief procedures on post-release survival of key tropical reef fish species in Australia using recreational tagging clubs.

Common coral trout, Plectropomus leopardus Lacepede, crimson snapper, Lutjanus erythropterus Bloch, saddletail snapper, Lutjanus malabaricus (Bloch & Schneider), red emperor, Lutjanus sebae (Cuvier), redthroat emperor, Lethrinus miniatus (Schneider) and grass emperor, Lethrinus laticaudis Alleyne & Macleay, were tagged to determine the effects of barotrauma relief procedures (weighted shot-line release and venting using a hollow needle) and other factors on survival. Release condition was the most significant factor affecting the subsequent recapture rate of all species. Capture depth was significant in all species apart from L. malabaricus and L. miniatus, the general trend being reduced recapture probability with increasing capture depth. Recapture rates of fish hooked in either the lip or mouth were generally significantly higher than for those hooked in the throat or gut. Statistically significant benefit from treating fish for barotrauma was found in only L. malabaricus, but the lack of any negative effects of treating fish indicated that the practices of venting and shot-lining should not be discouraged by fisheries managers for these species.

Performance analysis of a slotted-ALOHA protocol on a capture channel with fading

We consider the slotted ALOHA protocol on a channel with a capture effect. There are M probability of a successful reception of a packet is q(i). This model contains the CDMA protocols as special cases. We obtain sufficient rate conditions, which are close to necessary for stability of the system, when the arrival streams are stationary ergodic. Under the same rate conditions, for general regenerative arrival streams, we obtain the rates of convergence to stationarity, finiteness of stationary moments and various functional limit theorems. Our arrival streams contain all the traffic models suggested in the recent literature, including the ones which display long range dependence. We also obtain bounds on the stationary moments of waiting times which can be tight under realistic conditions. Finally, we obtain several results on the transient performance of the system, e.g., first time to overflow and the limits of the overflow process. We also extend the above results to the case of a capture channel exhibiting Markov modulated fading. Most of our results and proofs will be shown to hold also for the slotted ALOHA protocol without capture.

Capture-Induced, Fast, Distributed, Splitting Based Selection with Imperfect Power Control

Opportunistic selection selects the node that improves the overall system performance the most. Selecting the best node is challenging as the nodes are geographically distributed and have only local knowledge. Yet, selection must be fast to allow more time to be spent on data transmission, which exploits the selected node's services. We analyze the impact of imperfect power control on a fast, distributed, splitting based selection scheme that exploits the capture effect by allowing the transmitting nodes to have different target receive powers and uses information about the total received power to speed up selection. Imperfect power control makes the received power deviate from the target and, hence, affects performance. Our analysis quantifies how it changes the selection probability, reduces the selection speed, and leads to the selection of no node or a wrong node. We show that the effect of imperfect power control is primarily driven by the ratio of target receive powers. Furthermore, we quantify its effect on the net system throughput.

Timer-Based Distributed Node Selection Scheme Exploiting Power Control and Capture

Opportunistic selection in multi-node wireless systems improves system performance by selecting the ``best'' node and by using it for data transmission. In these systems, each node has a real-valued local metric, which is a measure of its ability to improve system performance. Our goal is to identify the best node, which has the largest metric. We propose, analyze, and optimize a new distributed, yet simple, node selection scheme that combines the timer scheme with power control. In it, each node sets a timer and transmit power level as a function of its metric. The power control is designed such that the best node is captured even if. other nodes simultaneously transmit with it. We develop several structural properties about the optimal metric-to-timer-and-power mapping, which maximizes the probability of selecting the best node. These significantly reduce the computational complexity of finding the optimal mapping and yield valuable insights about it. We show that the proposed scheme is scalable and significantly outperforms the conventional timer scheme. We investigate the effect of. and the number of receive power levels. Furthermore, we find that the practical peak power constraint has a negligible impact on the performance of the scheme.

Estimating cumulative exposure of wildlife to non-lethal disturbance using spatially explicit capture-recapture models

Impact assessments often focus on short-term behavioral responses of animals to human disturbance. However, the cumulative effects caused by repeated behavioral disruptions are of management concern because these effects have the potential to influence individuals' survival and reproduction. We need to estimate individual exposure rates to disturbance to determine cumulative effects. We present a new approach to estimate the spatial exposure of minke whales to whalewatching boats in Faxaflõi Bay, Iceland. We used recent advances in spatially explicit capture-recapture modeling to estimate the probability that whales would encounter a disturbance (i.e., whalewatching boat). We obtained spatially explicit individual encounter histories of individually identifiable animals using photo-identification. We divided the study area into 1-km2 grid cells and considered each cell a spatially distinct sampling unit. We used capture history of individuals to model and estimate spatial encounter probabilities of individual minke whales across the study area, accounting for heterogeneity in sampling effort. We inferred the exposure of individual minke whales to whalewatching vessels throughout the feeding season by estimating individual whale encounters with vessels using the whale encounter probabilities and spatially explicit whalewatching intensity in the same area, obtained from recorded whalewatching vessel tracks. We then estimated the cumulative time whales spent with whalewatching boats to assess the biological significance of whalewatching disturbances. The estimated exposure levels to boats varied considerably between individuals because of both temporal and spatial variations in the activity centers of whales and the whalewatching intensity in the area. However, although some whales were repeatedly exposed to whalewatching boats throughout the feeding season, the estimated cumulative time they spent with boats was very low. Although whalewatching boat interactions caused feeding disruptions for the whales, the estimated low cumulative exposure indicated that the whalewatching industry in its current state likely is not having any long-term negative effects on vital rates.

Detecting stepping stones by abnormal causality probability

Locating the real source of the Internet attacks has long been an important but difficult problem to be addressed. In the real world, attackers can easily hide their identities and evade punishment by relaying their attacks through a series of compromised systems or devices called stepping stones. Currently, researchers mainly use similar features from the network traffic, such as packet timestamps and frequencies, to detect stepping stones. However, these features can be easily destroyed by attackers using evasive techniques. In addition, it is also difficult to implement an appropriate threshold of similarity that can help justify the stepping stones. In order to counter these problems, in this paper, we introduce the consistent causality probability to detect the stepping stones. We formulate the ranges of abnormal causality probabilities according to the different network conditions, and on the basis of it, we further implement to self-adaptive methods to capture stepping stones. To evaluate our proposed detection methods, we adopt theoretic analysis and empirical studies, which demonstrate accuracy of the abnormal causality probability. Moreover, we compare our proposed methods with previous works. The result shows that our methods in this paper significantly outperform previous works in the accuracy of detection malicious stepping stones, even when evasive techniques are adopted by attackers.

Dynamical capture in the Pluto-Charon system

Fundação de Amparo à Pesquisa do Estado de São Paulo (FAPESP)

A Bootstrap-Regression Procedure to Capture Unit Specific Effects in Data Envelopment Analysis

The Data Envelopment Analysis (DEA) efficiency score obtained for an individual firm is a point estimate without any confidence interval around it. In recent years, researchers have resorted to bootstrapping in order to generate empirical distributions of efficiency scores. This procedure assumes that all firms have the same probability of getting an efficiency score from any specified interval within the [0,1] range. We propose a bootstrap procedure that empirically generates the conditional distribution of efficiency for each individual firm given systematic factors that influence its efficiency. Instead of resampling directly from the pooled DEA scores, we first regress these scores on a set of explanatory variables not included at the DEA stage and bootstrap the residuals from this regression. These pseudo-efficiency scores incorporate the systematic effects of unit-specific factors along with the contribution of the randomly drawn residual. Data from the U.S. airline industry are utilized in an empirical application.

Level-resolved quantum statistical theory of electron capture into many-electron compound resonances in highly charged ions

The strong mixing of many-electron basis states in excited atoms and ions with open f shells results in very large numbers of complex, chaotic eigenstates that cannot be computed to any degree of accuracy. Describing the processes which involve such states requires the use of a statistical theory. Electron capture into these “compound resonances” leads to electron-ion recombination rates that are orders of magnitude greater than those of direct, radiative recombination and cannot be described by standard theories of dielectronic recombination. Previous statistical theories considered this as a two-electron capture process which populates a pair of single-particle orbitals, followed by “spreading” of the two-electron states into chaotically mixed eigenstates. This method is similar to a configuration-average approach because it neglects potentially important effects of spectator electrons and conservation of total angular momentum. In this work we develop a statistical theory which considers electron capture into “doorway” states with definite angular momentum obtained by the configuration interaction method. We apply this approach to electron recombination with W²⁰⁺, considering 2×10⁶ doorway states. Despite strong effects from the spectator electrons, we find that the results of the earlier theories largely hold. Finally, we extract the fluorescence yield (the probability of photoemission and hence recombination) by comparison with experiment.