Voimalaitoksen hankeprosessin kehittäminen

Diplomityön ensisijaisena tavoitteena on kuvata Loviisan ydinvoimalaitoksen hankeprosessi ja kartoittaa siihen liittyvät kehitystarpeet. Erityistä huomiota kiinnitetään arviointi-, suunnittelu- ja hyväksymisvaiheisiin sekä budjetointiin. Työssä käsitellään myös hankkeiden taloudellisten perusteluiden määrittelyä ja hankevaihtoehtojen vertailua sekä esitellään laitoksen budjetointikäytännöt ja etsitään menetelmiä laitoksen kustannusseurannan tehostamiseksi. Oman osuutensa työssä muodostaa uuden Maximo-tietojärjestelmän raportointitarpeiden ideointi. Samassa on esitelty myös uusi projektien hallintajärjestelmä Primavera. Tietojärjestelmäuudistuksen aikataulun myöhästymisen vuoksi järjestelmien kehittely ja ominaisuuksien määrittely on toteutettu suppeasti. Teoriaosuudessa käsitellään ydinvoimalaitoksen käyttöiän hallintaa, jonka tarkoituksena on pohjustaa empiirisessä osuudessa käsiteltävää hankeprosessia ja sen kehitystarpeita. Työn ensisijaisena lähdemateriaalina toimivat hankeprosessiin osallistuvien henkilöiden haastattelut. Työssä esitellään erilaisia päätöksentekoa tukevia ja kannattavuuden arviointiin käytettäviä työkaluja ja menetelmiä. Työssä on myös ideoitu alustavasti hankeprosessin tunnusluvut ja raportointitarpeet, jotka tulisi vaivatta saada poimittua Maximo-järjestelmästä. Työssä kuvattiin prosessikaaviona voimalaitoksen hankeprosessi ja tunnistettiin sen pahimmat pullonkaulat, joiden poistamiseksi esitettiin myös muutamia toimintaehdotuksia. Väärinymmärrysten vähentämiseksi selvennettiin laitoksella toteutettavien töiden käsitteistöä. Työssä esitettyjen kehitystoimenpiteiden avulla saadaan kustannusseurantaa tehostettua sekä investointien budjetointiin lisää ryhtiä. Työ päättyy työn tulosten esittelyyn ja johtopäätöksiin.

REAALIOPTIOT OSANA PÄÄOMASIJOITTAJAN PÄÄTÖKSENTEKOPROSESSIA

Tutkielman päätavoitteena oli selvittää kuinka pääomasijoittajat käyttävät tai voivat käyttää reaalioptioajattelua päätöksenteon apuna. Tutkielma jakaantui teoria- ja empiriaosaan. Teoriaosassa käytettiin tutkimusmetodologiana käsiteanalyyttista tutkimusotetta. Empiriaosa tehtiin kvalitatiivisena tutkimuksena, jossa teema-haastatteluna haastateltiin kahdeksaa pääomasijoittajaa. Tutkielman teoriaosassa tutkittiin alan tutkimusten avulla pääomasijoittajan päätöksentekoprosessia sekä niitä kriteereitä, jotka vaikuttavat sijoituspäätökseen. Lisäksi esiteltiin optiohinnoittelumalli, jonka avulla pääomasijoittaja voi laskea kohdeyrityksen tulevaisuuden arvon. Teoriaosassa tutkittiin myös reaalioptiota. Ulkomaisten sekä kotimaisen tutkimusten avulla selvitettiin miten yleisiä perinteiset investointilaskelmat ovat sekä mitä puutteita niissä on verrattuna reaalioptioihin. Haastatteluissa keskityttiin päätöksentekoprosessin kuvaamiseen sekä kriteereihin, joita pääomasijoittajat arvioivat ennen sijoituspäätöksen tekoa. Lisäksi kartoitettiin reaalioptioiden käyttöä. Pääomasijoittajat eivät käytä reaalioptioanalyysiä hyväksi sijoituskohteiden arvon määrittämisessä. Reaalioptioita sisältyy pääomasijoitustoimintaan ja reaalioptioanalyysi sopii pääomasijoitusten arvottamiseen. Sitä tulisikin käyttää muiden menetelmien rinnalla.

Essays on pricing of risk and international linkage of Russian stock market

Last two decades have seen a rapid change in the global economic and financial situation; the economic conditions in many small and large underdeveloped countries started to improve and they became recognized as emerging markets. This led to growth in the amounts of global investments in these countries, partly spurred by expectations of higher returns, favorable risk-return opportunities, and better diversification alternatives to global investors. This process, however, has not been without problems and it has emphasized the need for more information on these markets. In particular, the liberalization of financial markets around the world, globalization of trade and companies, recent formation of economic and regional blocks, and the rapid development of underdeveloped countries during the last two decades have brought a major challenge to the financial world and researchers alike. This doctoral dissertation studies one of the largest emerging markets, namely Russia. The motivation why the Russian equity market is worth investigating includes, among other factors, its sheer size, rapid and robust economic growth since the turn of the millennium, future prospect for international investors, and a number of important major financial reforms implemented since the early 1990s. Another interesting feature of the Russian economy, which gives motivation to study Russian market, is Russia’s 1998 financial crisis, considered as one of the worst crisis in recent times, affecting both developed and developing economies. Therefore, special attention has been paid to Russia’s 1998 financial crisis throughout this dissertation. This thesis covers the period from the birth of the modern Russian financial markets to the present day, Special attention is given to the international linkage and the 1998 financial crisis. This study first identifies the risks associated with Russian market and then deals with their pricing issues. Finally some insights about portfolio construction within Russian market are presented. The first research paper of this dissertation considers the linkage of the Russian equity market to the world equity market by examining the international transmission of the Russia’s 1998 financial crisis utilizing the GARCH-BEKK model proposed by Engle and Kroner. Empirical results shows evidence of direct linkage between the Russian equity market and the world market both in regards of returns and volatility. However, the weakness of the linkage suggests that the Russian equity market was only partially integrated into the world market, even though the contagion can be clearly seen during the time of the crisis period. The second and the third paper, co-authored with Mika Vaihekoski, investigate whether global, local and currency risks are priced in the Russian stock market from a US investors’ point of view. Furthermore, the dynamics of these sources of risk are studied, i.e., whether the prices of the global and local risk factors are constant or time-varying over time. We utilize the multivariate GARCH-M framework of De Santis and Gérard (1998). Similar to them we find price of global market risk to be time-varying. Currency risk also found to be priced and highly time varying in the Russian market. Moreover, our results suggest that the Russian market is partially segmented and local risk is also priced in the market. The model also implies that the biggest impact on the US market risk premium is coming from the world risk component whereas the Russian risk premium is on average caused mostly by the local and currency components. The purpose of the fourth paper is to look at the relationship between the stock and the bond market of Russia. The objective is to examine whether the correlations between two classes of assets are time varying by using multivariate conditional volatility models. The Constant Conditional Correlation model by Bollerslev (1990), the Dynamic Conditional Correlation model by Engle (2002), and an asymmetric version of the Dynamic Conditional Correlation model by Cappiello et al. (2006) are used in the analysis. The empirical results do not support the assumption of constant conditional correlation and there was clear evidence of time varying correlations between the Russian stocks and bond market and both asset markets exhibit positive asymmetries. The implications of the results in this dissertation are useful for both companies and international investors who are interested in investing in Russia. Our results give useful insights to those involved in minimising or managing financial risk exposures, such as, portfolio managers, international investors, risk analysts and financial researchers. When portfolio managers aim to optimize the risk-return relationship, the results indicate that at least in the case of Russia, one should account for the local market as well as currency risk when calculating the key inputs for the optimization. In addition, the pricing of exchange rate risk implies that exchange rate exposure is partly non-diversifiable and investors are compensated for bearing the risk. Likewise, international transmission of stock market volatility can profoundly influence corporate capital budgeting decisions, investors’ investment decisions, and other business cycle variables. Finally, the weak integration of the Russian market and low correlations between Russian stock and bond market offers good opportunities to the international investors to diversify their portfolios.

Behavioristinen investointitutkimus ja investointilaskentamenetelmien opetus Suomessa

Tämän Pro gradu -tutkielman tavoitteena on selvittää, millaisia menetelmiä Suomen kauppatieteellisissä yksiköissä opetetaan laskentatoimen opiskelijoille investointien kannattavuuden arvioimiseen, ja onko sillä havaittavaa vaikutusta yritysten tosiasialliseen investointikäyttäytymiseen pitkällä aikavälillä. Tutkimusmuotona käytetään laadullista tutkimusmenetelmää. Tutkimuksen teoriaosuudessa esitellään kirjallisuuskatsaus behavioristiseen investointi-tutkimukseen ja empiirinen aineisto puolestaan kerättiin kyselytutkimuksella, jonka kohderyhmänä oli suomalaisissa kauppakorkeakouluissa toimivat laskentatoimen professorit. Tutkimusaineistoa myös syvennettiin puolistrukturoidulla haastattelulla. Tutkimustulosten perusteella havaitaan, että nettonykyarvon käyttö suomalaisissa yrityksissä on lähentynyt kansainvälistä tasoa, mutta reaalioptioiden käyttö on miltei olematonta verrattuna kansainvälisiin käytäntöihin. Suomessa syvällisimmin opetetut investointilaskentamenetelmät ovat nettonykyarvon ja sisäisen korkokannan menetelmät. Tuloksista voidaan päätellä myös, että klassiset investointilaskentamenetelmät, bisnesanalytiikka ja reaalioptiot ovat tärkeä osa laskentatoimen opetusta tulevaisuudessa, mutta syvällisesti reaalioptioihin fokusoitunutta opetusta ei juurikaan ole tällä hetkellä tarjolla.

Public-private partnership investments in dry ports – Russian logistics markets and risks

The investments have always been considered as an essential backbone and so-called ‘locomotive’ for the competitive economies. However, in various countries, the state has been put under tight budget constraints for the investments in capital intensive projects. In response to this situation, the cooperation between public and private sector has grown based on public-private mechanism. The promotion of favorable arrangement for collaboration between public and private sectors for the provision of policies, services, and infrastructure in Russia can help to address the problems of dry ports development that neither municipalities nor the private sector can solve alone. Especially, the stimulation of public-private collaboration is significant under the exposure to externalities that affect the magnitude of the risks during all phases of project realization. In these circumstances, the risk in the projects also is becoming increasingly a part of joint research and risk management practice, which is viewed as a key approach, aiming to take active actions on existing global and specific factors of uncertainties. Meanwhile, a relatively little progress has been made on the inclusion of the resilience aspects into the planning process of a dry ports construction that would instruct the capacity planner, on how to mitigate the occurrence of disruptions that may lead to million dollars of losses due to the deviation of the future cash flows from the expected financial flows on the project. The current experience shows that the existing methodological base is developed fragmentary within separate steps of supply chain risk management (SCRM) processes: risk identification, risk evaluation, risk mitigation, risk monitoring and control phases. The lack of the systematic approach hinders the solution of the problem of risk management processes of dry port implementation. Therefore, management of various risks during the investments phases of dry port projects still presents a considerable challenge from the practical and theoretical points of view. In this regard, the given research became a logical continuation of fundamental research, existing in the financial models and theories (e.g., capital asset pricing model and real option theory), as well as provided a complementation for the portfolio theory. The goal of the current study is in the design of methods and models for the facilitation of dry port implementation through the mechanism of public-private partnership on the national market that implies the necessity to mitigate, first and foremost, the shortage of the investments and consequences of risks. The problem of the research was formulated on the ground of the identified contradictions. They rose as a continuation of the trade-off between the opportunities that the investors can gain from the development of terminal business in Russia (i.e. dry port implementation) and risks. As a rule, the higher the investment risk, the greater should be their expected return. However, investors have a different tolerance for the risks. That is why it would be advisable to find an optimum investment. In the given study, the optimum relates to the search for the efficient portfolio, which can provide satisfaction to the investor, depending on its degree of risk aversion. There are many theories and methods in finance, concerning investment choices. Nevertheless, the appropriateness and effectiveness of particular methods should be considered with the allowance of the specifics of the investment projects. For example, the investments in dry ports imply not only the lump sum of financial inflows, but also the long-term payback periods. As a result, capital intensity and longevity of their construction determine the necessity from investors to ensure the return on investment (profitability), along with the rapid return on investment (liquidity), without precluding the fact that the stochastic nature of the project environment is hardly described by the formula-based approach. The current theoretical base for the economic appraisals of the dry port projects more often perceives net present value (NPV) as a technique superior to other decision-making criteria. For example, the portfolio theory, which considers different risk preference of an investor and structures of utility, defines net present value as a better criterion of project appraisal than discounted payback period (DPP). Meanwhile, in business practice, the DPP is more popular. Knowing that the NPV is based on the assumptions of certainty of project life, it cannot be an accurate appraisal approach alone to determine whether or not the project should be accepted for the approval in the environment that is not without of uncertainties. In order to reflect the period or the project’s useful life that is exposed to risks due to changes in political, operational, and financial factors, the second capital budgeting criterion – discounted payback period is profoundly important, particularly for the Russian environment. Those statements represent contradictions that exist in the theory and practice of the applied science. Therefore, it would be desirable to relax the assumptions of portfolio theory and regard DPP as not fewer relevant appraisal approach for the assessment of the investment and risk measure. At the same time, the rationality of the use of both project performance criteria depends on the methods and models, with the help of which these appraisal approaches are calculated in feasibility studies. The deterministic methods cannot ensure the required precision of the results, while the stochastic models guarantee the sufficient level of the accuracy and reliability of the obtained results, providing that the risks are properly identified, evaluated, and mitigated. Otherwise, the project performance indicators may not be confirmed during the phase of project realization. For instance, the economic and political instability can result in the undoing of hard-earned gains, leading to the need for the attraction of the additional finances for the project. The sources of the alternative investments, as well as supportive mitigation strategies, can be studied during the initial phases of project development. During this period, the effectiveness of the investments undertakings can also be improved by the inclusion of the various investors, e.g. Russian Railways’ enterprises and other private companies in the dry port projects. However, the evaluation of the effectiveness of the participation of different investors in the project lack the methods and models that would permit doing the particular feasibility study, foreseeing the quantitative characteristics of risks and their mitigation strategies, which can meet the tolerance of the investors to the risks. For this reason, the research proposes a combination of Monte Carlo method, discounted cash flow technique, the theory of real options, and portfolio theory via a system dynamics simulation approach. The use of this methodology allows for comprehensive risk management process of dry port development to cover all aspects of risk identification, risk evaluation, risk mitigation, risk monitoring, and control phases. A designed system dynamics model can be recommended for the decision-makers on the dry port projects that are financed via a public-private partnership. It permits investors to make a decision appraisal based on random variables of net present value and discounted payback period, depending on different risks factors, e.g. revenue risks, land acquisition risks, traffic volume risks, construction hazards, and political risks. In this case, the statistical mean is used for the explication of the expected value of the DPP and NPV; the standard deviation is proposed as a characteristic of risks, while the elasticity coefficient is applied for rating of risks. Additionally, the risk of failure of project investments and guaranteed recoupment of capital investment can be considered with the help of the model. On the whole, the application of these modern methods of simulation creates preconditions for the controlling of the process of dry port development, i.e. making managerial changes and identifying the most stable parameters that contribute to the optimal alternative scenarios of the project realization in the uncertain environment. System dynamics model allows analyzing the interactions in the most complex mechanism of risk management process of the dry ports development and making proposals for the improvement of the effectiveness of the investments via an estimation of different risk management strategies. For the comparison and ranking of these alternatives in their order of preference to the investor, the proposed indicators of the efficiency of the investments, concerning the NPV, DPP, and coefficient of variation, can be used. Thus, rational investors, who averse to taking increased risks unless they are compensated by the commensurate increase in the expected utility of a risky prospect of dry port development, can be guided by the deduced marginal utility of investments. It is computed on the ground of the results from the system dynamics model. In conclusion, the outlined theoretical and practical implications for the management of risks, which are the key characteristics of public-private partnerships, can help analysts and planning managers in budget decision-making, substantially alleviating the effect from various risks and avoiding unnecessary cost overruns in dry port projects.

Development appraisal in practice: some evidence from the planning system

Due to the requirement to demonstrate financial feasibility of policy proposals and scheme-specific planning obligations, development viability and development appraisal have become core themes in the English planning system. The objective of this paper is to evaluate the application of development appraisal in practice. The paper reviews the literature and the models available to assess the viability of development and analyses a sample 19 development viability appraisals to identify practice. The paper concludes that the practice of development appraisal deviates significantly from the tenets of capital budgeting theory. In particular, in addition to a propensity to oversimplify the timing of income and expenditure, the way in which debt, developer’s return and value and cost change are handled in practice illustrates a major gap between mainstream capital budgeting theory and development appraisal in practice.

O método das opções reais aplicado na avaliação das oportunidades de investimento no setor de seguros

Esta dissertação tem como objetivo demonstrar a validade do método de análise da avaliação das oportunidades de investimentos que utiliza a Teoria das Opções Reais. De forma a demonstrar a aplicabilidade desta metodologia de avaliação, será exemplificado, com base no modelo das opções reais, uma oportunidade de investimento no setor de seguros. As opções reais fecham a brecha entre as finanças e o planejamento estratégico introduzindo um meio para incorporar o impacto da incerteza implícita nas oportunidades de investimento, e ao mesmo tempo considerando como as ações gerenciais podem limitar as possíveis perdas ou capitalizar os possíveis ganhos nos projetos de investimento. Este processo de avaliação não direciona somente os administradores a focar suas atenções nas diferentes oportunidades e alternativas estratégicas, mas fornece também uma metodologia sistemática para medir a influencia das ações contingentes sobre o próprio risco e valor do projeto. Os métodos tradicionais de avaliação dos investimentos assumem que os administradores adotem um comportamento passivo à implementação dos projetos, considerando somente o valor dos fluxos de caixa esperados dos mesmos. A partir da teoria de precificação das opções financeiras, as opções reais expandem o valor global do projeto incorporando os potenciais ganhos e limitando as possíveis perdas. O modelo de opções reais permite aos administradores alavancar o valor do acionista em um ambiente de negócios dinâmico considerando a possibilidade de uma gestão ótima das opções estratégicas e operacionais existentes. Tipicamente, o ativo subjacente é o valor bruto dos fluxos de caixa esperados do projeto, mas considerando a incerteza, o valor total do projeto deve considerar o valor implícito das opções reais presentes nas oportunidades de investimento. A flexibilidade gerencial, que permite adaptar as decisões futuras as mudanças inesperadas do mercado, representa um fonte crucial de valor agregado em um ambiente dinâmico. Muitas opções reais presentes nos projetos e que interagem entre si, podem ocorrer em paralelo ou seqüencialmente, de maneira que o valor combinado destas opções seja diferente da simples soma algébrica das opções individuais.

Análise de projetos de investimentos : uma abordagem teórico-prática

The objective of this work is to search a real case of capital budgeting, relating the practical technical aspects of the elaboration of project, with theoretical referential and following secondary objectives: (i) to analyze the relations established between the bibliographical material and the found practical technical problems of capital budgeting in the enterprise; (ii) to search and to describe the necessary pacing to the economic and financial elaboration of an project, from the prospecting of the demand, the projection of revenues and expenditures and the evaluation of the necessary investments to its development; (iii) to relate and to exemplify the influences of the restrictions presented for the methods of capital budgeting, correlating the practical theoretical referential with the enterprise; (iv) to analyze the yield of the investment project, (v) to verify the influence of the financing, on the yield of the project; and, finally, (vi) to demonstrate the choice process among some alternatives of supply, when used as tools of aid to the purchase decision, the methods of the Internal Tax of Return and the Net Present Value. To the end of the study one concluded that the methods of the Internal Tax of Return and the Net Present Value are powerful tools in the yield evaluation and viability of investments projects. However, to only understand the methods through what they teach in books is not enough for the daily practical of capital budgeting. Literature starts from two basic points: (i) the investments analyst dominates all the countable revenues, expenditures, and investments concepts.(ii) the numerical examples are simple and easy to understand, to infer its practical applications is a contouring question to be raised and passed by the analyst. This study intends to show the conjunction of the bibliography with the practical one, therefore, from the instant that demonstrates the countable concept of the prescription, it also explains as it was constituted from the calculation of the demand, until its inclusion in the project. Thus, searching concepts of revenues, expenditures, depreciation and capital assets, disclosing its constitution and, over all, the application inside of the project, it all takes the analyst to the final part of the process, that consists in the determination of the numerical calculations, allowing to dedicate more time to the difficult task to interpret the data. Finally, understood the analysis of the economic viability of the project, the study guides the purchase of the equipment under the economic-financial point of view.

Financial decision making about found oil and gas in Ghana : real options vs. traditional methods

This research is a study of the use of capital budgeting methods for investment decisions. It uses both the traditional methods and the newly introduced approach called the real options analysis to make a decision. The research elucidates how capital budgeting can be done when analysts encounter projects with high uncertainty and are capital intensive, for example oil and gas production. It then uses the oil and gas find in Ghana as a case study to support its argument. For a clear understanding a thorough literature review was done, which highlights the advantages and disadvantages of both methods. The revenue that the project will generate and the costs of production were obtained from the predictions by analysts from GNPC and compared to others experts’ opinion. It then applied both the traditional and real option valuation on the oil and gas find in Ghana to determine the project’s feasibility. Although, there are some short falls in real option analysis that are presented in this research, it is still helpful in valuing projects that are capital intensive with high volatility due to the strategic flexibility management possess in their decision making. It also suggests that traditional methods of evaluation should still be maintained and be used to value projects that have no options or those with options yet the options do not have significant impact on the project. The research points out the economic ripples the production of oil and gas will have on Ghana’s economy should the project be undertaken. These ripples include economic growth, massive job creation and reduction of the balance of trade deficit for the country. The long run effect is an eventually improvement of life of the citizens. It is also belief that the production of gas specifically can be used to generate electricity in Ghana which would enable the country to have a more stable and reliable power source necessary to attract more foreign direct investment.

la influencia de la felicidad en las decisiones de inversión de activos de largo plazo para una muestra de siete gerentes financieros en la ciudad de Bogotá en el año 2016.

El presente artículo contribuye con la investigación de las Finanzas Corporativas del Comportamiento, rama de las finanzas corporativas que considera que el individuo que toma decisiones financieras no es completamente racional y que por hecho existen sesgos psicológicos que influyen en sus decisiones. Este documento se enfoca, desde el punto de vista conceptual y también mediante el análisis de un estudio de campo, en la influencia de la felicidad en las decisiones de inversión en activos de largo plazo para un grupo de siete gerentes ubicados en la ciudad de Bogotá en el año 2016. En el documento se abarca el concepto general de las finanzas corporativas del comportamiento, se define la felicidad y se presentan sub-variables determinantes para la felicidad del individuo como lo son: salud, balance vida/trabajo, educación y habilidades, conexiones sociales y medio ambiente. Finalmente se presenta cómo éstas afectan a los gerentes financieros en sus decisiones de acuerdo a la investigación realizada.

Budgeting, budgetary control and management information in the highways departments

The need for an adequate information system for the Highways Departments in the United Kingdom has been recognised by the report of a committee presented to the Minister of Transport in 1970, (The Marshall Report). This research aims to present a comprehensive information system on a sound theoretical basis which should enable the different levels of management to execute their work adequately. The suggested system presented in this research covers the different functions of the Highways Department, and presents a suggested solution for problems which may occur during the planning and controlling of work in the different locations of the Highways Department. The information system consists of:- 1. A coding system covering the cost units, cost centres and cost elements. 2. Cost accounting records for the cost units and cost centres. 3. A budgeting and budgetary control system covering, the different planning methods and procedures which are required for preparing the capital expenditure budget, the improvement and maintenance operation flexible budgets and programme of work, the plant budget, the administration budget, and the purchasing budget. 4. A reporting system which ensures that the different levels of management are receiving relevant and timely information. 5. The flow of documents which covers the relationship between the prime documents, the cost accounting records, budgets, reports and their relation to the different sections and offices within the department. A comprehensive cost units, cost centres, and cost elements codes together with a number of examples demonstrating the results of the survey, and examples of the application and procedures of the suggested information system have been illustrated separately as appendices. The emphasis is on the information required for internal control by management personnel within the County Council.

Práticas preventivas de detecção de câncer em mulheres: comparação das estimativas dos inquéritos de saúde (ISA - Capital) e vigilância de fatores de risco e proteção para doenças crônicas por inquérito telefônico (VIGITEL - São Paulo)

OBJETIVO: O objetivo deste estudo foi comparar estimativas obtidas em inquéritos domiciliar e telefônico, da realização dos exames de Papanicolaou e mamografia em mulheres residentes no município de São Paulo em 2008, segundo características sociodemográficas, bem como dimensionar as diferenças observadas. MÉTODOS: Foram utilizados os dados do ISA - Capital 2008, inquérito domiciliar realizado no município de São Paulo pela Universidade de São Paulo (USP), Universidade Estadual de Campinas (UNICAMP) e Secretaria de Estado da Saúde com apoio da Secretaria Municipal de Saúde de São Paulo, e do VIGITEL - São Paulo, inquérito telefônico realizado pelo Ministério da Saúde para Vigilância de Fatores de Risco e Proteção para Doenças Crônicas. Estimativas da realização do exame de Papanicolaou e mamografia na vida, bem como a realização no último ano foram comparadas segundo o tipo de inquérito (domiciliar/telefone) por meio de regressão de Poisson ajustada por idade e escolaridade. RESULTADOS: Não foram encontradas diferenças estatisticamente significantes entre as estimativas obtidas pelo VIGITEL e ISA - Capital para as prevalências de realização de mamografia no último ano. No entanto, para as estimativas globais de realização do exame de Papanicolaou alguma vez na vida e no último ano e da mamografia na vida, foi possível verificar diferenças estatisticamente significantes, com prevalências de cobertura superiores entre as entrevistadas pelo inquérito telefônico. CONCLUSÃO: Os resultados sinalizam a tendência de superestimação de alguns indicadores de cobertura de mamografia e de exame de Papanicolaou nos dados de pesquisa via telefone, apontando a necessidade de novos estudos que também contribuam para o melhor entendimento das diferenças observadas com o uso de diferentes modalidades de inquéritos.

On the threshold of forgetting: Amnesiac identities and the Brazilian capital

Centuries after Locke asserted the importance of memory to identity, Freudian psychology argued that what was forgotten was of equal importance as to what was remembered. The closing decades of the nineteenth century saw a rising interest in the nature of forgetting, resulting in a reassessment and newfound distrust of the long revered faculty of memory. The relationship between memory and identity was inverted, seeing forgetting also become a means for forging identity. This newfound distrust of memory manifested in the writings of Nietzsche who in 1874 called for society to learn to feel unhistorically and distance itself from the past - in what was essentially tantamount to a cultural forgetting. Following the Nietzschean call, the architecture of Modernism was also compelled by the need to 'overcome' the limits imposed by history. This paper examines notions of identity through the shifting boundaries of remembering and forgetting, with particular reference to the construction of Brazilian identity through the ‘repression’ of history and memory in the design of the Brazilian capital. Designed as a forward-looking modernist utopia, transcending the limits imposed by the country's colonial heritage, the design for Brasilia exploited the anti-historicist agenda of modernism to emancipate the country from cultural and political associations with the Portuguese Empire. This paper examines the relationship between place, memory and forgetting through a discussion of the design for Brasilia.