Evaluation of TxDOT’s J.A.C.K. model for revenue and expenditure projections

This research report documents work conducted by the Center for Transportation (CTR) at The University of Texas at Austin in analyzing the Joint Analysis using the Combined Knowledge (J.A.C.K.) program. This program was developed by the Texas Department of Transportation (TxDOT) to make projections of revenues and expenditures. This research effort was to span from September 2008 to August 2009, but the bulk of the work was completed and presented by December 2008. J.A.C.K. was subsequently renamed TRENDS, but for consistency with the scope of work, the original name is used throughout this report.

Changes in resting and walking energy expenditure and walking speed during pregnancy in obese women

Background Energy conserving processes reported in undernourished women during pregnancy are a recognised strategy to provide energy required to support fetal development. Women who are obese before conceiving arguably have sufficient fat stores to support the energy demands of pregnancy without the need to provoke energy conserving mechanisms. Objective We tested the hypothesis that obese women would demonstrate behavioural adaptation (i.e. decrease in self-selected walking (SSW) speed) but not metabolic compensation (i.e. decrease in resting metabolic rate (RMR) or metabolic cost of walking) during gestation. Design RMR, SSW speed, metabolic cost of walking, and anthropometry were measured in 23 women (BMI: 33.6 ± 2.5 kg/m2; 31 ± 4 years) at approximately weeks 15 (wk 15) and 30 (wk 30) of gestation. RMR was also measured in two cohorts of non-pregnant controls matched for age, weight and height of the pregnant cohort at wk 15 (N=23) and wk 30 (N=23). Results GWG varied widely (11.3 ± 5.4 kg) and 52% of women gained more weight than is recommended. RMR increased significantly by an average 177 ± 176 kcal/d (11±12%; P<0.0001); however the within-group variability was large. Both the metabolic cost of walking and SSW speed decreased significantly (P<0.01). While RMR increased in >80% of the cohort, the net oxygen cost of walking decreased in the same proportion of women. Conclusions While the increase in RMR was greater than was explained by weight gain, there was evidence of both behavioural and biological compensation in the metabolic cost of walking in obese women during gestation.

Measurement of total body water (TBW) and total energy expenditure (TEE) using stable isotopes

Understanding the relationship between diet, physical activity and health in humans requires accurate measurement of body composition and daily energy expenditure. Stable isotopes provide a means of measuring total body water and daily energy expenditure under free-living conditions. While the use of isotope ratio mass spectrometry (IRMS) for the analysis of 2H (Deuterium) and 18O (Oxygen-18) is well established in the field of human energy metabolism research, numerous questions remain regarding the factors which influence analytical and measurement error using this methodology. This thesis was comprised of four studies with the following emphases. The aim of Study 1 was to determine the analytical and measurement error of the IRMS with regard to sample handling under certain conditions. Study 2 involved the comparison of TEE (Total daily energy expenditure) using two commonly employed equations. Further, saliva and urine samples, collected at different times, were used to determine if clinically significant differences would occur. Study 3 was undertaken to determine the appropriate collection times for TBW estimates and derived body composition values. Finally, Study 4, a single case study to investigate if TEE measures are affected when the human condition changes due to altered exercise and water intake. The aim of Study 1 was to validate laboratory approaches to measure isotopic enrichment to ensure accurate (to international standards), precise (reproducibility of three replicate samples) and linear (isotope ratio was constant over the expected concentration range) results. This established the machine variability for the IRMS equipment in use at Queensland University for both TBW and TEE. Using either 0.4mL or 0.5mL sample volumes for both oxygen-18 and deuterium were statistically acceptable (p>0.05) and showed a within analytical variance of 5.8 Delta VSOW units for deuterium, 0.41 Delta VSOW units for oxygen-18. This variance was used as “within analytical noise” to determine sample deviations. It was also found that there was no influence of equilibration time on oxygen-18 or deuterium values when comparing the minimum (oxygen-18: 24hr; deuterium: 3 days) and maximum (oxygen-18: and deuterium: 14 days) equilibration times. With regard to preparation using the vacuum line, any order of preparation is suitable as the TEE values fall within 8% of each other regardless of preparation order. An 8% variation is acceptable for the TEE values due to biological and technical errors (Schoeller, 1988). However, for the automated line, deuterium must be assessed first followed by oxygen-18 as the automated machine line does not evacuate tubes but merely refills them with an injection of gas for a predetermined time. Any fractionation (which may occur for both isotopes), would cause a slight elevation in the values and hence a lower TEE. The purpose of the second and third study was to investigate the use of IRMS to measure the TEE and TBW of and to validate the current IRMS practices in use with regard to sample collection times of urine and saliva, the use of two TEE equations from different research centers and the body composition values derived from these TEE and TBW values. Following the collection of a fasting baseline urine and saliva sample, 10 people (8 women, 2 men) were dosed with a doubly labeled water does comprised of 1.25g 10% oxygen-18 and 0.1 g 100% deuterium/kg body weight. The samples were collected hourly for 12 hrs on the first day and then morning, midday, and evening samples were collected for the next 14 days. The samples were analyzed using an isotope ratio mass spectrometer. For the TBW, time to equilibration was determined using three commonly employed data analysis approaches. Isotopic equilibration was reached in 90% of the sample by hour 6, and in 100% of the sample by hour 7. With regard to the TBW estimations, the optimal time for urine collection was found to be between hours 4 and 10 as to where there was no significant difference between values. In contrast, statistically significant differences in TBW estimations were found between hours 1-3 and from 11-12 when compared with hours 4-10. Most of the individuals in this study were in equilibrium after 7 hours. The TEE equations of Prof Dale Scholler (Chicago, USA, IAEA) and Prof K.Westerterp were compared with that of Prof. Andrew Coward (Dunn Nutrition Centre). When comparing values derived from samples collected in the morning and evening there was no effect of time or equation on resulting TEE values. The fourth study was a pilot study (n=1) to test the variability in TEE as a result of manipulations in fluid consumption and level of physical activity; the magnitude of change which may be expected in a sedentary adult. Physical activity levels were manipulated by increasing the number of steps per day to mimic the increases that may result when a sedentary individual commences an activity program. The study was comprised of three sub-studies completed on the same individual over a period of 8 months. There were no significant changes in TBW across all studies, even though the elimination rates changed with the supplemented water intake and additional physical activity. The extra activity may not have sufficiently strenuous enough and the water intake high enough to cause a significant change in the TBW and hence the CO2 production and TEE values. The TEE values measured show good agreement based on the estimated values calculated on an RMR of 1455 kcal/day, a DIT of 10% of TEE and activity based on measured steps. The covariance values tracked when plotting the residuals were found to be representative of “well-behaved” data and are indicative of the analytical accuracy. The ratio and product plots were found to reflect the water turnover and CO2 production and thus could, with further investigation, be employed to identify the changes in physical activity.

An analysis of tax expenditure versus direct expenditure

Each financial year concessions, benefits and incentives are delivered to taxpayers via the tax system. These concessions, benefits and incentives, referred to as tax expenditure, differ from direct expenditure because of the recurring fiscal impact without regular scrutiny through the federal budget process. There are approximately 270 different tax expenditures existing within the current tax regime with total measured tax expenditures in the 2005-06 financial year estimated to be around $42.1 billion, increasing to $52.7 billion by 2009-10. Each year, new tax expenditures are introduced, while existing tax expenditures are modified and deleted. In recognition of some of the problems associated with tax expenditure, a Tax Expenditure Statement, as required by the Charter of Budget Honesty Act 1988, is produced annually by the Australian Federal Treasury. The Statement details the various expenditures and measures in the form of concessions, benefits and incentives provided to taxpayers by the Australian Government and calculates the tax expenditure in terms of revenue forgone. A similar approach to reporting tax expenditure, with such a report being a legal requirement, is followed by most OECD countries. The current Tax Expenditure Statement lists 270 tax expenditures and where it is able to, reports on the estimated pecuniary value of those expenditures. Apart from the annual Tax Expenditure Statement, there is very little other scrutiny of Australia’s Federal tax expenditure program. While there has been various academic analysis of tax expenditure in Australia, when compared to the North American literature, it is suggested that the Australian literature is still in its infancy. In fact, one academic author who has contributed to tax expenditure analysis recently noted that there is ‘remarkably little secondary literature which deals at any length with tax expenditures in the Australian context.’ Given this perceived gap in the secondary literature, this paper examines fundamental concept of tax expenditure and considers the role it plays in to the current tax regime as a whole, along with the effects of the introduction of new tax expenditures. In doing so, tax expenditure is contrasted with direct expenditure. An analysis of tax expenditure versus direct expenditure is already a sophisticated and comprehensive body of work stemming from the US over the last three decades. As such, the title of this paper is rather misleading. However, given the lack of analysis in Australia, it is appropriate that this paper undertakes a consideration of tax expenditure versus direct expenditure in an Australian context. Given this proposition, rather than purport to undertake a comprehensive analysis of tax expenditure which has already been done, this paper discusses the substantive considerations of any such analysis to enable further investigation into the tax expenditure regime both as a whole and into individual tax expenditure initiatives. While none of the propositions in this paper are new in a ‘tax expenditure analysis’ sense, this debate is a relatively new contribution to the Australian literature on the tax policy. Before the issues relating to tax expenditure can be determined, it is necessary to consider what is meant by ‘tax expenditure’. As such, part two if this paper defines ‘tax expenditure’. Part three determines the framework in which tax expenditure can be analysed. It is suggested that an analysis of tax expenditure must be evaluated within the framework of the design criteria of an income tax system with the key features of equity, efficiency, and simplicity. Tax expenditure analysis can then be applied to deviations from the ideal tax base. Once it is established what is meant by tax expenditure and the framework for evaluation is determined, it is possible to establish the substantive issues to be evaluated. This paper suggests that there are four broad areas worthy of investigation; economic efficiency, administrative efficiency, whether tax expenditure initiatives achieve their policy intent, and the impact on stakeholders. Given these areas of investigation, part four of this paper considers the issues relating to the economic efficiency of the tax expenditure regime, in particular, the effect on resource allocation, incentives for taxpayer behaviour and distortions created by tax expenditures. Part five examines the notion of administrative efficiency in light of the fact that most tax expenditures could simply be delivered as direct expenditures. Part six explores the notion of policy intent and considers the two questions that need to be asked; whether any tax expenditure initiative reaches its target group and whether the financial incentives are appropriate. Part seven examines the impact on stakeholders. Finally, part eight considers the future of tax expenditure analysis in Australia.

Accountability beyond the headlines : why not-for-profit organisations need to communicate their own expenditure stories

This paper analyses the expenditure patterns of 97 Australian international aid and development organisations, and examines the extent to which they disclose information about their expenditure in order to discharge their accountability. Not-for-profit (NFP) expenditure attracts media attention, with perceptions of excessive costs potentially damaging stakeholder trust in NFP organisations. This makes it important for organisations to be proactive in communicating their expenditure stories to stakeholders, rather than being judged on their performance by standardised expenditure metrics. By highlighting what it costs to ensure longer-term operational capability, NFP organisations will contribute to the discharge of their financial accountability and play a part in educating all stakeholders about the dangers of relying on a single metric.

Role of resting metabolic rate and energy expenditure in hunger and appetite control : a new formulation

A long-running issue in appetite research concerns the influence of energy expenditure on energy intake. More than 50 years ago, Otto G. Edholm proposed that "the differences between the intakes of food [of individuals] must originate in differences in the expenditure of energy". However, a relationship between energy expenditure and energy intake within any one day could not be found, although there was a correlation over 2 weeks. This issue was never resolved before interest in integrative biology was replaced by molecular biochemistry. Using a psychobiological approach, we have studied appetite control in an energy balance framework using a multi-level experimental system on a single cohort of overweight and obese human subjects. This has disclosed relationships between variables in the domains of body composition [fat-free mass (FFM), fat mass (FM)], metabolism, gastrointestinal hormones, hunger and energy intake. In this Commentary, we review our own and other data, and discuss a new formulation whereby appetite control and energy intake are regulated by energy expenditure. Specifically, we propose that FFM (the largest contributor to resting metabolic rate), but not body mass index or FM, is closely associated with self-determined meal size and daily energy intake. This formulation has implications for understanding weight regulation and the management of obesity.

Tax Expenditure Management : A Critical Assessment

A tax expenditure is a 'tax break' allowed to a taxpayer or group of taxpayers, for example, by way of concession, deduction, deferral or exemption. The tax expenditure concept, as it was first identified, was designed to demonstrate the similarity between direct government spending on the one hand and spending through the tax system on the other. The identification of benefits provided through the tax system as tax expenditures allows analysts to consider the fiscal significant of those parts of the tax system which do not contribute to the primary purpose of raising revenue. Although a seemingly simple concept, it has generated a range of complex definitional and practical issues, and this book identifies and critical assesses the controversial aspects of tax expenditure and tax expenditure management.

The adaptive metabolic response to exercise-induced weight loss influences both energy expenditure and energy intake

BACKGROUND/OBJECTIVEs A decline in resting energy expenditure (REE) beyond that predicted from changes in body composition has been noted following dietary-induced weight loss. However, it is unknown whether a compensatory downregulation in REE also accompanies exercise (EX)-induced weight loss, or whether this adaptive metabolic response influences energy intake (EI). SUBJECTS/METHODS Thirty overweight and obese women (body mass index (BMI)=30.6±3.6 kg/m2) completed 12 weeks of supervised aerobic EX. Body composition, metabolism, EI and metabolic-related hormones were measured at baseline, week 6 and post intervention. The metabolic adaptation (MA), that is, difference between predicted and measured REE was also calculated post intervention (MApost), with REE predicted using a regression equation generated in an independent sample of 66 overweight and obese women (BMI=31.0±3.9 kg/m2). RESULTS Although mean predicted and measured REE did not differ post intervention, 43% of participants experienced a greater-than-expected decline in REE (−102.9±77.5 kcal per day). MApost was associated with the change in leptin (r=0.47; P=0.04), and the change in resting fat (r=0.52; P=0.01) and carbohydrate oxidation (r=−0.44; P=0.02). Furthermore, MApost was also associated with the change in EI following EX (r=−0.44; P=0.01). CONCLUSIONS Marked variability existed in the adaptive metabolic response to EX. Importantly, those who experienced a downregulation in REE also experienced an upregulation in EI, indicating that the adaptive metabolic response to EX influences both physiological and behavioural components of energy balance.

Structured contract strategies for capital and operations expenditure projects in the oil and gas industry

This project was a step forward in developing a 'descriptive theory' of contracting in the oil and gas industry that reflects the operating environment in which the project manager operates. This study investigates the existing processes and methods used in establishing contracts which are very often prescriptive, and not always appropriate or optimal for a given situation. This study contributes to contracting effectiveness or optimal contracting in the oil and gas industry.

Measurement of energy expenditure of daily tasks among mothers of young children

There is currently some debate about whether the energy expenditure of domestic tasks is sufficient to confer health benefits. The aim of this study was therefore to measure the energy cost of five activities commonly undertaken by mothers of young children. Seven women with at least one child younger than five years of age spent 15 minutes in each of the following activities: sitting quietly, vacuum cleaning, washing windows, walking at moderate pace (approx 5km/hour), walking with a stroller and grocery shopping in a super-market. Each of the six 'trials' was completed on the same day, in random order. A carefully calibrated portable gas analyser was used to measure oxygen uptake during each activity, and data were converted to units of energy expenditure (METS). Vacuum cleaning, washing windows and walking with and without a stroller were found to be 'moderate intensity activities' (3 to 6 METs), but supermarket shopping did not reach this criterion. The MET values for these activities were similar to those reported in the Compendium of Physical Activities (Ainsworth et al., 2000). However, the energy expenditures of walking, both with and without a stroller, were higher than those reported in the Compendium. The findings suggest that some of the tasks associated with domestic caring duties are conducted at an intensity which is sufficient to confer some health benefit. Such benefits will only accrue however if the daily duration of these activities is sufficient to meet current guidelines.

Predictive validity of three ActiGraph energy expenditure equations for children

Purpose This Study evaluated the predictive validity of three previously published ActiGraph energy expenditure (EE) prediction equations developed for children and adolescents. Methods A total of 45 healthy children and adolescents (mean age: 13.7 +/- 2.6 yr) completed four 5-min activity trials (normal walking. brisk walking, easy running, and fast running) in ail indoor exercise facility. During each trial, participants were all ActiGraph accelerometer oil the right hip. EE was monitored breath by breath using the Cosmed K4b(2) portable indirect calorimetry system. Differences and associations between measured and predicted EE were assessed using dependent t-tests and Pearson correlations, respectively. Classification accuracy was assessed using percent agreement, sensitivity, specificity, and area under the receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve. Results None of the equations accurately predicted mean energy expenditure during each of the four activity trials. Each equation, however, accurately predicted mean EE in at least one activity trial. The Puyau equation accurately predicted EE during slow walking. The Trost equation accurately predicted EE during slow running. The Freedson equation accurately predicted EE during fast running. None of the three equations accurately predicted EE during brisk walking. The equations exhibited fair to excellent classification accuracy with respect to activity intensity. with the Trost equation exhibiting the highest classification accuracy and the Puyau equation exhibiting the lowest. Conclusions These data suggest that the three accelerometer prediction equations do not accurately predict EE on a minute-by-minute basis in children and adolescents during overground walking and running. The equations maybe, however, for estimating participation in moderate and vigorous activity.

Artificial neural networks to predict activity type and energy expenditure in youth

Previous studies have demonstrated that pattern recognition approaches to accelerometer data reduction are feasible and moderately accurate in classifying activity type in children. Whether pattern recognition techniques can be used to provide valid estimates of physical activity (PA) energy expenditure in youth remains unexplored in the research literature. Purpose: The objective of this study is to develop and test artificial neural networks (ANNs) to predict PA type and energy expenditure (PAEE) from processed accelerometer data collected in children and adolescents. Methods: One hundred participants between the ages of 5 and 15 yr completed 12 activity trials that were categorized into five PA types: sedentary, walking, running, light-intensity household activities or games, and moderate-to-vigorous intensity games or sports. During each trial, participants wore an ActiGraph GTIM on the right hip, and (V) Over dotO(2) was measured using the Oxycon Mobile (Viasys Healthcare, Yorba Linda, CA) portable metabolic system. ANNs to predict PA type and PAEE (METs) were developed using the following features: 10th, 25th, 50th, 75th, and 90th percentiles and the lag one autocorrelation. To determine the highest time resolution achievable, we extracted features from 10-, 15-, 20-, 30-, and 60-s windows. Accuracy was assessed by calculating the percentage of windows correctly classified and root mean square en-or (RMSE). Results: As window size increased from 10 to 60 s, accuracy for the PA-type ANN increased from 81.3% to 88.4%. RMSE for the MET prediction ANN decreased from 1.1 METs to 0.9 METs. At any given window size, RMSE values for the MET prediction ANN were 30-40% lower than the conventional regression-based approaches. Conclusions: ANNs can be used to predict both PA type and PAEE in children and adolescents using count data from a single waist mounted accelerometer.