Tests of sunspot number sequences: 3. Effects of regression procedures on the calibration of historic sunspot data

We use sunspot group observations from the Royal Greenwich Observatory (RGO) to investigate the effects of intercalibrating data from observers with different visual acuities. The tests are made by counting the number of groups RB above a variable cut-off threshold of observed total whole-spot area (uncorrected for foreshortening) to simulate what a lower acuity observer would have seen. The synthesised annual means of RB are then re-scaled to the full observed RGO group number RA using a variety of regression techniques. It is found that a very high correlation between RA and RB (rAB > 0.98) does not prevent large errors in the intercalibration (for example sunspot maximum values can be over 30 % too large even for such levels of rAB). In generating the backbone sunspot number (RBB), Svalgaard and Schatten (2015, this issue) force regression fits to pass through the scatter plot origin which generates unreliable fits (the residuals do not form a normal distribution) and causes sunspot cycle amplitudes to be exaggerated in the intercalibrated data. It is demonstrated that the use of Quantile-Quantile (“Q  Q”) plots to test for a normal distribution is a useful indicator of erroneous and misleading regression fits. Ordinary least squares linear fits, not forced to pass through the origin, are sometimes reliable (although the optimum method used is shown to be different when matching peak and average sunspot group numbers). However, other fits are only reliable if non-linear regression is used. From these results it is entirely possible that the inflation of solar cycle amplitudes in the backbone group sunspot number as one goes back in time, relative to related solar-terrestrial parameters, is entirely caused by the use of inappropriate and non-robust regression techniques to calibrate the sunspot data.

Comparison Of Demand Pattern Calibration In Water Distribution Networks With Geographic And Non-Geographic Parameterization

Demands are one of the most uncertain parameters in a water distribution network model. A good calibration of the model demands leads to better solutions when using the model for any purpose. A demand pattern calibration methodology that uses a priori information has been developed for calibrating the behaviour of demand groups. Generally, the behaviours of demands in cities are mixed all over the network, contrary to smaller villages where demands are clearly sectorised in residential neighbourhoods, commercial zones and industrial sectors. Demand pattern calibration has a final use for leakage detection and isolation. Detecting a leakage in a pattern that covers nodes spread all over the network makes the isolation unfeasible. Besides, demands in the same zone may be more similar due to the common pressure of the area rather than for the type of contract. For this reason, the demand pattern calibration methodology is applied to a real network with synthetic non-geographic demands for calibrating geographic demand patterns. The results are compared with a previous work where the calibrated patterns were also non-geographic.

Calibration of therapeutic ultrasound equipment

Temporal and spatial acoustic intensity (SATA) of therapeutic ultrasound (US) equipment should be monitored periodically. In order to evaluate the conditions of US equipment in use in the city of Piracicaba-Sao Paulo, Brazil, 31 machines - representing all Brazilian manufacturers - were analysed under continuous and pulsed conditions at a frequency of 1 MHz. Data about temporal and spatial acoustic intensity were collected and the use of equipment was surveyed. Intensities of 0.1, 0.2, 0.5, 0.8, 1.0, 1.5, 2.0, 2.5 and 3.0 Wcm -2, indicated on the equipment panel were analysed using a previously calibrated digital radiation pressure scale, model UPM-DT-1 (Ohmic Instruments Co). The acoustic intensity (I) results were expressed as superior and inferior quartile ranges for transducers with metal surfaces of 9 cm 2 and an effective radiation area (ERA) Of 4 cm 2. The results under continuous conditions were: I 0.1 = -20.0% and -96%. I 0.2 = -3.1% and -83.7%. I 0.5 = -35.0% and -86.5%. I 0.8 = -37.5% and -71.0%. I 2.5 = -49.0% and -69.5%. I 3.0 = -58.1% and -77.6%. For pulsed conditions, intensities were: I 0.1 = -40.0% and -86.2%. I 1.0 = -50.0% and -86.5%. I 1.5 = -62.5% and -82.5%. I 2.0 = -62.5% and -81.6%. I 2.5 = -64.7% and -88.8%. I 3.0 = -87.1% and -94.8%. In reply to the questionnaire drawn up to check the conditions of use of equipment, all users reported the use of hydrosoluble gel as a coupling medium and none had carried out previous calibrations. Most users used intensities in the range of 0.4. to 1.0 Wcm -2 and used machines for 300 to 400 minutes per week. The majority of machines had been bought during the previous seven years and weekly use ranged from less than 100 minutes to 700 minutes (11 hours 40 minutes). Findings confirm previous observations of discrepancy between the intensity indicated on the equipment panel and that emitted by the transducer and highlight the necessity for periodic evaluations of US equipment.

TDEM survey in an area of seismicity induced by water wells in Parana sedimentary basin, Northern Sao Paulo State, Brazil

This article presents TDEM results from an area with recent induced shallow seismicity. The purpose was to do a geoelectrical mapping of sedimentary and fractured basaltic aquifers for better understanding of the hydrogeologic setting. The study area is in the Parana basin where flood basalts are overlain by sedimentary units near the city of Bebedouro, northern Sao Paulo State, Brazil. 86 TDEM soundings were acquired in an area of 90 km(2) in the Andes and Botafogo study areas. The soundings were chosen next to wells for calibration, and also along profiles crossing the seismically active areas. 1-D interpretation results showed the general geoelectrical stratigraphy of this part of the Parana basin. The upper geoelectrical layer is the shallow sedimentary aquifer (Adamantina formation) with less than 80 m thickness. The second geoelectrical layer contains the upper basalts of the Serra Geral formation at about 60-80 m depths. A saturated fractured basalt zone between 100 and 300 m depths was identifiable on various TDEM soundings. This depth range corresponds to the range of hypocentral depths for more than 3000 micro-earthquakes in this area. The lower basalt layer was estimated to lie between 400 and 650 m depth. The deepest geoelectrical layer detected by various TDEM soundings corresponds to the Botucatu sandstone (Guarani aquifer). Results suggest that the high-discharge wells are located in the fractured zone in the middle basalt of the Serra Geral formation. There is a good correlation between seismically active areas, high discharge wells (>190 m(3)/h), and fracture zones in the middle basalt. The results reinforce the hypothesis that the shallow seismic activity in the Bebedouro region is being triggered by high rates of groundwater withdrawal. (C) 2012 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Study of the circulation processes in the northern Adriatic sea - coastal area and Venice lagoon inlets

This work is a detailed study of hydrodynamic processes in a defined area, the littoral in front of the Venice Lagoon and its inlets, which are complex morphological areas of interconnection. A finite element hydrodynamic model of the Venice Lagoon and the Adriatic Sea has been developed in order to study the coastal current patterns and the exchanges at the inlets of the Venice Lagoon. This is the first work in this area that tries to model the interaction dynamics, running together a model for the lagoon and the Adriatic Sea. First the barotropic processes near the inlets of the Venice Lagoon have been studied. Data from more than ten tide gauges displaced in the Adriatic Sea have been used in the calibration of the simulated water levels. To validate the model results, empirical flux data measured by ADCP probes installed inside the inlets of Lido and Malamocco have been used and the exchanges through the three inlets of the Venice Lagoon have been analyzed. The comparison between modelled and measured fluxes at the inlets outlined the efficiency of the model to reproduce both tide and wind induced water exchanges between the sea and the lagoon. As a second step, also small scale processes around the inlets that connect the Venice lagoon with the Northern Adriatic Sea have been investigated by means of 3D simulations. Maps of vorticity have been produced, considering the influence of tidal flows and wind stress in the area. A sensitivity analysis has been carried out to define the importance of the advection and of the baroclinic pressure gradients in the development of vortical processes seen along the littoral close to the inlets. Finally a comparison with real data measurements, surface velocity data from HF Radar near the Venice inlets, has been performed, which allows for a better understanding of the processes and their seasonal dynamics. The results outline the predominance of wind and tidal forcing in the coastal area. Wind forcing acts mainly on the mean coastal current inducing its detachment offshore during Sirocco events and an increase of littoral currents during Bora events. The Bora action is more homogeneous on the whole coastal area whereas the Sirocco strengthens its impact in the South, near Chioggia inlet. Tidal forcing at the inlets is mainly barotropic. The sensitivity analysis shows how advection is the main physical process responsible for the persistent vortical structures present along the littoral between the Venice Lagoon inlets. The comparison with measurements from HF Radar not only permitted a validation the model results, but also a description of different patterns in specific periods of the year. The success of the 2D and the 3D simulations on the reproduction both of the SSE, inside and outside the Venice Lagoon, of the tidal flow, through the lagoon inlets, and of the small scale phenomena, occurring along the littoral, indicates that the finite element approach is the most suitable tool for the investigation of coastal processes. For the first time, as shown by the flux modeling, the physical processes that drive the interaction between the two basins were reproduced.

Minor inheritance inhibits the calibration of the 10Be production rate from the AD 1717 Val Ferret rock avalanche, European Alps

To calibrate the in situ 10Be production rate, we collected surface samples from nine large granitic boulders within the deposits of a rock avalanche that occurred in AD 1717 in the upper Ferret Valley, Mont Blanc Massif, Italy. The 10Be concentrations were extremely low and successfully measured within 10% analytical uncertainty or less. The concentrations vary from 4829 ± 448 to 5917 ± 476 at g−1. Using the historical age exposure time, we calculated the local and sea level-high latitude (i.e. ≥60°) cosmogenic 10Be spallogenic production rates. Depending on the scaling schemes, these vary between 4.60 ± 0.38 and 5.26 ± 0.43 at g−1 a−1. Although they correlate well with global values, our production rates are clearly higher than those from more recent calibration sites. We conclude that our 10Be production rate is a mean and an upper bound for production rates in the Massif region over the past 300 years. This rate is probably influenced by inheritance and will yield inaccurate (e.g. too young) exposure ages when applied to surface-exposure studies in the area. Other independently dated rock-avalanche deposits in the region that are approximately 103 years old could be considered as possible calibration sites.

Design, Calibration, and Evaluation of Depth-of-Interaction-Capable PET Detector Modules

High-resolution, small-bore PET systems suffer from a tradeoff between system sensitivity, and image quality degradation. In these systems long crystals allow mispositioning of the line of response due to parallax error and this mispositioning causes resolution blurring, but long crystals are necessary for high system sensitivity. One means to allow long crystals without introducing parallax errors is to determine the depth of interaction (DOI) of the gamma ray interaction within the detector module. While DOI has been investigated previously, newly available solid state photomultipliers (SSPMs) well-suited to PET applications and allow new modules for investigation. Depth of interaction in full modules is a relatively new field, and so even if high performance DOI capable modules were available, the appropriate means to characterize and calibrate the modules are not. This work presents an investigation of DOI capable arrays and techniques for characterizing and calibrating those modules. The methods introduced here accurately and reliably characterize and calibrate energy, timing, and event interaction positioning. Additionally presented is a characterization of the spatial resolution of DOI capable modules and a measurement of DOI effects for different angles between detector modules. These arrays have been built into a prototype PET system that delivers better than 2.0 mm resolution with a single-sided-stopping-power in excess of 95% for 511 keV g's. The noise properties of SSPMs scale with the active area of the detector face, and so the best signal-to-noise ratio is possible with parallel readout of each SSPM photodetector pixel rather than multiplexing signals together. This work additionally investigates several algorithms for improving timing performance using timing information from multiple SSPM pixels when light is distributed among several photodetectors.

Contiunous surface water uncorrected and quench-corrected active fluorescence and derived chlorophyll a concentration using calibration by HPLC pigments during POLARSTERN cruise ANT-XXV/1

The relationship between phytoplankton assemblages and the associated optical properties of the water body is important for the further development of algorithms for large-scale remote sensing of phytoplankton biomass and the identification of phytoplankton functional types (PFTs), which are often representative for different biogeochemical export scenarios. Optical in-situ measurements aid in the identification of phytoplankton groups with differing pigment compositions and are widely used to validate remote sensing data. In this study we present results from an interdisciplinary cruise aboard the RV Polarstern along a north-to-south transect in the eastern Atlantic Ocean in November 2008. Phytoplankton community composition was identified using a broad set of in-situ measurements. Water samples from the surface and the depth of maximum chlorophyll concentration were analyzed by high performance liquid chromatography (HPLC), flow cytometry, spectrophotometry and microscopy. Simultaneously, the above- and underwater light field was measured by a set of high spectral resolution (hyperspectral) radiometers. An unsupervised cluster algorithm applied to the measured parameters allowed us to define bio-optical provinces, which we compared to ecological provinces proposed elsewhere in the literature. As could be expected, picophytoplankton was responsible for most of the variability of PFTs in the eastern Atlantic Ocean. Our bio-optical clusters agreed well with established provinces and thus can be used to classify areas of similar biogeography. This method has the potential to become an automated approach where satellite data could be used to identify shifting boundaries of established ecological provinces or to track exceptions from the rule to improve our understanding of the biogeochemical cycles in the ocean.

A Light-Weight On-Chip Monitoring Network for Dynamic Adaptation and Calibration

Current nanometer technologies suffer within-die parameter uncertainties, varying workload conditions, aging, and temperature effects that cause a serious reduction on yield and performance. In this scenario, monitoring, calibration, and dynamic adaptation become essential, demanding systems with a collection of multi purpose monitors and exposing the need for light-weight monitoring networks. This paper presents a new monitoring network paradigm able to perform an early prioritization of the information. This is achieved by the introduction of a new hierarchy level, the threshing level. Targeting it, we propose a time-domain signaling scheme over a single-wire that minimizes the network switching activity as well as the routing requirements. To validate our approach, we make a thorough analysis of the architectural trade-offs and expose two complete monitoring systems that suppose an area improvement of 40% and a power reduction of three orders of magnitude compared to previous works.

Calibration of WAVE in irrigated maize: fallow vs. cover crops.

Nitrate leaching decreases crop available N and increases water contamination. Replacing fallow by cover crops (CC) is an alternative to reduce nitrate contamination, because it reduces overall drainage and soil mineral N accumulation. A study of the soil N and nitrate leaching was conducted during 5 years in a semi-arid irrigated agricultural area of Central Spain. Three treatments were studied during the intercropping period of maize (Zea mays L.): barley (Hordeum vulgare L.), vetch (Vicia villosa L.), and fallow. Cover crops, sown in October, were killed by glyphosate application in March, allowing direct seeding of maize in April. All treatments were irrigated and fertilised following the same procedure. Soil water content was measured using capacity probes. Soil Nmin accumulation was determined along the soil profile before sowing and after harvesting maize. Soil analysis was conducted at six depths every 0.20m in each plot in samples from 0 to 1.2-m depth. The mechanistic water balance model WAVE was applied in order to calculate drainage and plant growth of the different treatments, and apply them to the N balance. We evaluated the water balance of this model using the daily soil water content measurements of this field trial. A new Matlab version of the model was evaluated as well. In this new version improvements were made in the solute transport module and crop module. In addition, this new version is more compatible with external modules for data processing, inverse calibration and uncertainty analysis than the previous Fortran version. The model showed that drainage during the irrigated period was minimized in all treatments, because irrigation water was adjusted to crop needs, leading to nitrate accumulation on the upper layers after maize harvest. Then, during the intercrop period, most of the nitrate leaching occurred. Cover crops usually led to a shorter drainage period, lower drainage water amount and lower nitrate leaching than the treatment with fallow. These effects resulted in larger nitrate accumulation in the upper layers of the soil after CC treatments.

An Inexpensive Method for Kinematic Calibration of a Parallel Robot by Using One Hand-Held Camera as Main Sensor

This paper presents a novel method for the calibration of a parallel robot, which allows a more accurate configuration instead of a configuration based on nominal parameters. It is used, as the main sensor with one camera installed in the robot hand that determines the relative position of the robot with respect to a spherical object fixed in the working area of the robot. The positions of the end effector are related to the incremental positions of resolvers of the robot motors. A kinematic model of the robot is used to find a new group of parameters, which minimizes errors in the kinematic equations. Additionally, properties of the spherical object and intrinsic camera parameters are utilized to model the projection of the object in the image and thereby improve spatial measurements. Finally, several working tests, static and tracking tests are executed in order to verify how the robotic system behaviour improves by using calibrated parameters against nominal parameters. In order to emphasize that, this proposed new method uses neither external nor expensive sensor. That is why new robots are useful in teaching and research activities.

Ground water model calibration using pilot points and regularization

Use of nonlinear parameter estimation techniques is now commonplace in ground water model calibration. However, there is still ample room for further development of these techniques in order to enable them to extract more information from calibration datasets, to more thoroughly explore the uncertainty associated with model predictions, and to make them easier to implement in various modeling contexts. This paper describes the use of pilot points as a methodology for spatial hydraulic property characterization. When used in conjunction with nonlinear parameter estimation software that incorporates advanced regularization functionality (such as PEST), use of pilot points can add a great deal of flexibility to the calibration process at the same time as it makes this process easier to implement. Pilot points can be used either as a substitute for zones of piecewise parameter uniformity, or in conjunction with such zones. In either case, they allow the disposition of areas of high and low hydraulic property value to be inferred through the calibration process, without the need for the modeler to guess the geometry of such areas prior to estimating the parameters that pertain to them. Pilot points and regularization can also be used as an adjunct to geostatistically based stochastic parameterization methods. Using the techniques described herein, a series of hydraulic property fields can be generated, all of which recognize the stochastic characterization of an area at the same time that they satisfy the constraints imposed on hydraulic property values by the need to ensure that model outputs match field measurements. Model predictions can then be made using all of these fields as a mechanism for exploring predictive uncertainty.

The cost of uniqueness in groundwater model calibration

Calibration of a groundwater model requires that hydraulic properties be estimated throughout a model domain. This generally constitutes an underdetermined inverse problem, for which a Solution can only be found when some kind of regularization device is included in the inversion process. Inclusion of regularization in the calibration process can be implicit, for example through the use of zones of constant parameter value, or explicit, for example through solution of a constrained minimization problem in which parameters are made to respect preferred values, or preferred relationships, to the degree necessary for a unique solution to be obtained. The cost of uniqueness is this: no matter which regularization methodology is employed, the inevitable consequence of its use is a loss of detail in the calibrated field. This, ill turn, can lead to erroneous predictions made by a model that is ostensibly well calibrated. Information made available as a by-product of the regularized inversion process allows the reasons for this loss of detail to be better understood. In particular, it is easily demonstrated that the estimated value for an hydraulic property at any point within a model domain is, in fact, a weighted average of the true hydraulic property over a much larger area. This averaging process causes loss of resolution in the estimated field. Where hydraulic conductivity is the hydraulic property being estimated, high averaging weights exist in areas that are strategically disposed with respect to measurement wells, while other areas may contribute very little to the estimated hydraulic conductivity at any point within the model domain, this possibly making the detection of hydraulic conductivity anomalies in these latter areas almost impossible. A study of the post-calibration parameter field covariance matrix allows further insights into the loss of system detail incurred through the calibration process to be gained. A comparison of pre- and post-calibration parameter covariance matrices shows that the latter often possess a much smaller spectral bandwidth than the former. It is also demonstrated that, as all inevitable consequence of the fact that a calibrated model cannot replicate every detail of the true system, model-to-measurement residuals can show a high degree of spatial correlation, a fact which must be taken into account when assessing these residuals either qualitatively, or quantitatively in the exploration of model predictive uncertainty. These principles are demonstrated using a synthetic case in which spatial parameter definition is based oil pilot points, and calibration is Implemented using both zones of piecewise constancy and constrained minimization regularization. (C) 2005 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.