Hypothermia And Early Neonatal Mortality In Preterm Infants.

To evaluate intervention practices associated with hypothermia at both 5 minutes after birth and at neonatal intensive care unit (NICU) admission and to determine whether hypothermia at NICU admission is associated with early neonatal death in preterm infants. This prospective cohort included 1764 inborn neonates of 22-33 weeks without malformations admitted to 9 university NICUs from August 2010 through April 2012. All centers followed neonatal International Liaison Committee on Resuscitation recommendations for the stabilization and resuscitation in the delivery room (DR). Variables associated with hypothermia (axillary temperature <36.0 °C) 5 minutes after birth and at NICU admission, as well as those associated with early death, were analyzed by logistic regression. Hypothermia 5 minutes after birth and at NICU admission was noted in 44% and 51%, respectively, with 6% of early neonatal deaths. Adjusted for confounding variables, practices associated with hypothermia at 5 minutes after birth were DR temperature <25 °C (OR 2.13, 95% CI 1.67-2.28), maternal temperature at delivery <36.0 °C (OR 1.93, 95% CI 1.49-2.51), and use of plastic bag/wrap (OR 0.53, 95% CI 0.40-0.70). The variables associated with hypothermia at NICU admission were DR temperature <25 °C (OR 1.44, 95% CI 1.10-1.88), respiratory support with cold air in the DR (OR 1.40, 95% CI 1.03-1.88) and during transport to NICU (OR 1.51, 95% CI 1.08-2.13), and cap use (OR 0.55, 95% CI 0.39-0.78). Hypothermia at NICU admission increased the chance of early neonatal death by 1.64-fold (95% CI 1.03-2.61). Simple interventions, such as maintaining DR temperature >25 °C, reducing maternal hypothermia prior to delivery, providing plastic bags/wraps and caps for the newly born infants, and using warm resuscitation gases, may decrease hypothermia at NICU admission and improve early neonatal survival.

Clinical evaluation of desensitizing treatments for cervical dentin hypersensitivity

The aim of this study was to compare different treatments for dentin hypersensitivity in a 6-month follow-up. One hundred and one teeth exhibiting non carious cervical lesions were selected. The assessment method used to quantify sensitivity was the cold air syringe, recorded by the visual analogue scale (VAS), prior to treatment (baseline), immediately after topical treatment, after 1 week, 1, 3 and 6 months. Teeth were randomly assigned to five groups (n = 20): G1: Gluma Desensitizer (GD); G2: Seal&Protect (SP); G3: Oxa-gel (OG); G4: Fluoride (F); G5: Low intensity laser-LILT (660 nm/3.8 J/cm²/15 mW). Analysis was based on the non-parametric Kruskal-Wallis test that demonstrated statistical differences immediately after the treatment (p = 0.0165). To observe the individual effects of each treatment, data was submitted to Friedman test. It was observed that GD and SP showed immediate effect after application. Reduction in the pain level throughout the six-month follow-up was also observed. In contrast, LILT presented a gradual reduction of hypersensitivity. OG and F showed effects as of the first and third month respectively. It can be concluded that, after the 6-month clinical evaluation, all therapies showed lower VAS sensitivity values compared with baseline, independently of their different modes of action.

Estudo de caso de uma situação atmosférica entre 12 e 19 de setembro de 2008, com algumas características semelhantes ao evento Catarina

Este trabalho apresenta uma análise das condições sinótica e dinâmica associadas ao desenvolvimento do ciclone ocorrido entre 12 e 19 de setembro de 2008, com o objetivo de destacar diferenças e semelhanças com o ambiente em que se inseriu o evento Catarina em março de 2004. As principais semelhanças foram encontradas no padrão sinótico geral: a ocorrência de um padrão típico de bloqueio do tipo dipolo associado à anomalia de vorticidade potencial em altos níveis; cavado em níveis médios com inclinação para oeste; a presença de uma coluna de vorticidade ciclônica desde a superfície até a baixa estratosfera; e, em superfície, o padrão de uma alta ao sul de uma baixa pressão. Apesar das semelhanças no padrão geral, diferenças ocorreram entre os dois eventos que influenciaram na intensidade dos sistemas: o Catarina ocorreu em latitudes mais baixas em relação ao caso de setembro de 2008; o padrão típico de bloqueio associado ao caso de setembro de 2008 durou um dia e meio, enquanto no evento Catarina foi de três dias; a configuração da advecção de temperatura na camada entre 1000-500 hPa favoreceu o deslocamento do evento de setembro de 2008 para leste/sudeste, ao contrário do Catarina, a advecção de ar quente a leste do ciclone foi praticamente suprimida e a tendência de altura geopotencial passou a ser positiva, padrões que impedem o deslocamento do sistema para leste; no caso de setembro de 2008 o padrão da inversão do gradiente meridional de temperatura potencial na superfície de -2,0 unidade de vorticidade potencial (UVP) foi caracterizado pela incursão de uma região alongada de ar quente vinda do equador em direção ao sul e ar frio vinda do sul em direção ao equador, enquanto no caso Catarina a inversão ocorre pelo isolamento de uma bolha de ar frio ao norte e uma bolha de ar quente ao sul, o que pode ter contribuído para maior duração do padrão de bloqueio, pois a dissipação neste caso é dificultada. Sistemas como o Catarina podem ser raros no Atlântico Sul, mas isso não ocorre em relação ao ambiente sinótico em que se formou o Catarina. Para melhor entender o processo atmosférico que levou à formação do Catarina, é necessário realizar experimentos numéricos de sensibilidade para o caso de setembro de 2008 com o objetivo de verificar a possibilidade do ciclone extratropical se tornar um ciclone tropical.

Analysis of the wind field and heat budget in an alpine lake basin during summertime fair weather conditions

Observational data collected in the Lake Tekapo hydro catchment of the Southern Alps in New Zealand are used to analyse the wind and temperature fields in the alpine lake basin during summertime fair weather conditions. Measurements from surface stations, pilot balloon and tethersonde soundings, Doppler sodar and an instrumented light aircraft provide evidence of multi-scale interacting wind systems, ranging from microscale slope winds to mesoscale coast-to-basin flows. Thermal forcing of the winds occurred due to differential heating as a consequence of orography and heterogeneous surface features, which is quantified by heat budget and pressure field analysis. The daytime vertical temperature structure was characterised by distinct layering. Features of particular interest are the formation of thermal internal boundary layers due to the lake-land discontinuity and the development of elevated mixed layers. The latter were generated by advective heating from the basin and valley sidewalls by slope winds and by a superimposed valley wind blowing from the basin over Lake Tekapo and up the tributary Godley Valley. Daytime heating in the basin and its tributary valleys caused the development of a strong horizontal temperature gradient between the basin atmosphere and that over the surrounding landscape, and hence the development of a mesoscale heat low over the basin. After noon, air from outside the basin started flowing over mountain saddles into the basin causing cooling in the lowest layers, whereas at ridge top height the horizontal air temperature gradient between inside and outside the basin continued to increase. In the early evening, a more massive intrusion of cold air caused rapid cooling and a transition to a rather uniform slightly stable stratification up to about 2000 m agl. The onset time of this rapid cooling varied about 1-2 h between observation sites and was probably triggered by the decay of up-slope winds inside the basin, which previously countered the intrusion of air over the surrounding ridges. The intrusion of air from outside the basin continued until about mid-night, when a northerly mountain wind from the Godley Valley became dominant. The results illustrate the extreme complexity that can be caused by the operation of thermal forcing processes at a wide range of spatial scales.

Estudo, Avaliação e Propostas de melhoria para a Climatização do edifício Biorama do Parque Biológico de Vila Nova de Gaia

A eficiência energética e a preocupação com a sustentabilidade têm vindo a ganhar preponderância na sociedade moderna. Este trabalho é uma contribuição para esta tendência onde se pretendeu avaliar e sugerir alterações ao sistema de climatização do edifício Biorama do Parque Biológico de Vila Nova de Gaia (PBG). Procedeu-se em primeiro lugar a uma caracterização física, química e geográfica dos 5 biomas constituintes do Biorama. Para isso, recorreu-se a documentos fornecidos pelo próprio PBG, visitas ao local e registo de medições de alguns parâmetros (temperatura, humidade relativa, qualidade do ar). Posteriormente foi realizado o balanço térmico dos edifícios, de acordo com a legislação em vigor, recorrendo a expressões e conceitos teóricos. Foram determinados valores dos ganhos térmicos de aquecimento de 15811, 10694, 7939, 9233, e 6621 kWh/ano para Floresta tropical, Mesozoico, Dunas, Savana e Deserto, respetivamente. Foram igualmente determinados valores dos ganhos térmicos no verão de 7093, 4798, 3560, 4144 e 2971 kWh na Floresta tropical, no Mesozoico, nas Dunas, na Savana e no Deserto, respetivamente. As cargas térmicas de aquecimento foram 149, 125, 47, 60 e 51 kW na Floresta tropical, no Mesozoico, nas Dunas, na Savana e no Deserto, respetivamente. As cargas térmicas de arrefecimento foram iguais a 59, 57, 47, 35 e 36 kW na Floresta tropical, no Mesozoico, nas Dunas, na Savana e no Deserto, respetivamente. Algumas soluções são avançadas, bem como alternativas comportamentais de modo a corrigir alguns problemas identificados. Uma proposta é a da instalação de painéis solares e acumuladores de calor, com os quais se estima um ganho médio conjunto de 500 W em cada bioma, e representam um investimento de 1050 euros e terão um retorno de 1 ano. Em relação à humidade é sugerido a utilização mais eficaz dos aspersores existentes e a utilização de esponjas, para fazer subir a humidade relativa para valores superiores a 80%. Em sentido inverso, no inverno, propõem-se a utilização de material higroscópico para fazer baixar a humidade relativa em cerca de 5%. Os custos com os suportes e o material higroscópico rondam os 250 €. Por fim, é sugerido a instalação de um aparelho de ar condicionado de 16 000 BTU no corredor de ligação, pois é a única forma de garantir condições de conforto térmico. Esta proposta de arrefecimento com ar condicionado e ainda o recurso a uma cortina de lâminas de plástico, que servem para efetuar uma separação mais eficiente entre ar frio e ar quente, têm um custo aproximado de 350 €. É ainda sugerida a utilização de lonas ou de uma planta trepadeira com um custo por planta de 5€, nas coberturas dos telhados virados a sul, sendo que a zona do corredor deverá ser totalmente coberta, a fim de evitar a exposição solar direta.

Kernel-based Mapping of Meteorological Fields in Complex Orography

Due to the advances in sensor networks and remote sensing technologies, the acquisition and storage rates of meteorological and climatological data increases every day and ask for novel and efficient processing algorithms. A fundamental problem of data analysis and modeling is the spatial prediction of meteorological variables in complex orography, which serves among others to extended climatological analyses, for the assimilation of data into numerical weather prediction models, for preparing inputs to hydrological models and for real time monitoring and short-term forecasting of weather.In this thesis, a new framework for spatial estimation is proposed by taking advantage of a class of algorithms emerging from the statistical learning theory. Nonparametric kernel-based methods for nonlinear data classification, regression and target detection, known as support vector machines (SVM), are adapted for mapping of meteorological variables in complex orography.With the advent of high resolution digital elevation models, the field of spatial prediction met new horizons. In fact, by exploiting image processing tools along with physical heuristics, an incredible number of terrain features which account for the topographic conditions at multiple spatial scales can be extracted. Such features are highly relevant for the mapping of meteorological variables because they control a considerable part of the spatial variability of meteorological fields in the complex Alpine orography. For instance, patterns of orographic rainfall, wind speed and cold air pools are known to be correlated with particular terrain forms, e.g. convex/concave surfaces and upwind sides of mountain slopes.Kernel-based methods are employed to learn the nonlinear statistical dependence which links the multidimensional space of geographical and topographic explanatory variables to the variable of interest, that is the wind speed as measured at the weather stations or the occurrence of orographic rainfall patterns as extracted from sequences of radar images. Compared to low dimensional models integrating only the geographical coordinates, the proposed framework opens a way to regionalize meteorological variables which are multidimensional in nature and rarely show spatial auto-correlation in the original space making the use of classical geostatistics tangled.The challenges which are explored during the thesis are manifolds. First, the complexity of models is optimized to impose appropriate smoothness properties and reduce the impact of noisy measurements. Secondly, a multiple kernel extension of SVM is considered to select the multiscale features which explain most of the spatial variability of wind speed. Then, SVM target detection methods are implemented to describe the orographic conditions which cause persistent and stationary rainfall patterns. Finally, the optimal splitting of the data is studied to estimate realistic performances and confidence intervals characterizing the uncertainty of predictions.The resulting maps of average wind speeds find applications within renewable resources assessment and opens a route to decrease the temporal scale of analysis to meet hydrological requirements. Furthermore, the maps depicting the susceptibility to orographic rainfall enhancement can be used to improve current radar-based quantitative precipitation estimation and forecasting systems and to generate stochastic ensembles of precipitation fields conditioned upon the orography.

Le pergélisol dans les terrains sédimentaires à forte déclivité: distribution, régime thermique et instabilités

Résumé: Dans le contexte d'un climat de plus en plus chaud, la localisation du pergélisol dans les terrains sédimentaires à forte déclivité et l'évaluation des mouvements de terrain qui y ont cours s'avèrent primordiales. S'insérant dans cette problématique, ce travail de thèse s'articule autour de deux axes de recherche différents. D'un point de vue statique, cette recherche propose une étude de la distribution et des caractéristiques du pergélisol dans les éboulis de la zone périglaciaire alpine. D'un point de vue dynamique, une analyse de l'influence des caractéristiques du pergélisol (teneur en glace, température du pergélisol, etc.) et des variations des températures de l'air et du sol sur les vitesses de fluage des corps sédimentaires gelés est effectuée. Afin de répondre à ce double objectif, l'approche "terrain" a été privilégiée. Pour déterminer la répartition et les caractéristiques du pergélisol, les méthodes traditionnelles de prospection du pergélisol ont été utilisées, à savoir la mesure de la température du sol à la base du manteau neigeux (BTS), la mesure de la température du sol en continu ainsi que la méthode géoélectrique. Les mouvements de terrain ont pour leur part été mesurés à l'aide d'un GPS différentiel. L'étude de la distribution du pergélisol a été effectuée dans une quinzaine d'éboulis situés dans les régions du Mont Gelé (Verbier-Nendaz) et d'Arolla principalement. Dans la plupart des cas, un pergélisol a pu être mis en évidence dans la partie inférieure des accumulations sédimentaires, alors que la partie médiane des éboulis n'est, le plus souvent, pas gelée. Si cette absence de pergélisol se prolonge parfois dans les portions sommitales des pentes, les mesures réalisées montrent que dans d'autres cas des sédiments gelés y sont à nouveau présents. Les résistivités électriques mesurées dans les portions gelées des éboulis étudiés sont dans la plupart des cas nettement inférieures à celles mesurées sur les glaciers rocheux. Des études préalables ont montré que des circulations d'air internes sont responsables de l'anomalie thermique négative et, lorsqu'il existe, du pergélisol que l'on trouve dans la partie inférieure d'éboulis situés plus de 1000 m plus bas que la limite inférieure régionale du pergélisol discontinu. L'étude de quatre sites de basse altitude (1400-1900 m), et notamment l'équipement du site de Dreveneuse (Préalpes Valaisannes) avec deux forages, des capteurs de température de surface et un anémomètre a permis de vérifier et de préciser le mécanisme de ventilation actif au sein des éboulis froids de basse altitude. Ce mécanisme fonctionne de la manière suivante: en hiver, l'air contenu dans l'éboulis, plus chaud et plus léger que l'air extérieur, monte à l'intérieur de l'accumulation sédimentaire et est expulsé dans ses parties sommitales. Cet effet de cheminée provoque une aspiration d'air froid à l'intérieur de la partie inférieure de l'éboulis, causant ainsi un sur-refroidissement marqué du terrain. En été, le mécanisme s'inverse, l'éboulis étant plus froid que l'air environnant. De l'air froid est alors expulsé au bas de la pente. Une ventilation ascendante hivernale a pu être mise en évidence dans certains des éboulis de haute altitude étudiés. Elle est probablement en grande partie responsable de la configuration particulière des zones gelées observées. Même si l'existence d'un effet de cheminée n'a pu être démontrée dans tous les cas, du fait notamment de la glace interstitielle qui entrave le cheminement de l'air, des indices laissant présager son possible fonctionnement existent dans la quasi totalité des éboulis étudiés. L'absence de pergélisol à des altitudes qui lui sont favorables pourrait en tous les cas s'expliquer par un réchauffement du terrain lié à des expulsions d'air relativement chaud. L'étude des mouvements de terrain a été effectuée sur une dizaine de sites, principalement sur des glaciers rocheux, mais également sur une moraine de poussée et - II - Résumé ? abstract quelques éboulis. Plusieurs glaciers rocheux présentent des formes de déstabilisation récente (niches d'arrachement, blocs basculés, apparition de la matrice fine à la surface, etc.), ce qui témoigne d'une récente accélération des vitesses de déplacement. Ce phénomène, qui semble général à l'échelle alpine, est probablement à mettre sur le compte du réchauffement du pergélisol depuis une vingtaine d'années. Les vitesses mesurées sur ces formations sont souvent plus élevées que les valeurs habituellement proposées dans la littérature. On note par ailleurs une forte variabilité inter-annuelle des vitesses, qui semblent dépendre de la variation de la température moyenne annuelle de surface. Abstract: In the context of a warmer climate, the localisation of permafrost in steep sedimentary terrain and the measurement of terrain movements that occur in these areas is of great importance. With respect to these problems, this PhD thesis follows two different research axes. From a static point of view, the research presents a study of the permafrost distribution and characteristics in the talus slopes of the alpine periglacial belt. From a dynamic point of view, an analysis of the influence of the permafrost characteristics (ice content, permafrost temperature, etc.) and air and soil temperature variations on the creep velocities of frozen sedimentary bodies is carried out. In order to attain this double objective, the "field" approach was favoured. To determine the distribution and the characteristics of permafrost, the traditional methods of permafrost prospecting were used, i.e. ground surface temperature measurements at the base of the snow cover (BTS), year-round ground temperature measurements and DC-resistivity prospecting. The terrain movements were measured using a differential GPS. The permafrost distribution study was carried out on 15 talus slopes located mainly in the Mont Gelé (Verbier-Nendaz) and Arolla areas (Swiss Alps). In most cases, permafrost was found in the lower part of the talus slope, whereas the medium part was free of ice. In some cases, the upper part of the talus is also free of permafrost, whereas in other cases permafrost is present. Electrical resistivities measured in the frozen parts of the studied talus are in most cases clearly lower than those measured on rock glaciers. Former studies have shown that internal air circulation is responsible for the negative thermal anomaly and, when it exists, the permafrost present in the lower part of talus slopes located more than 1000 m below the regional lower limit of discontinuous permafrost. The study of four low-altitude talus slopes (1400-1900 m), and notably the equipment of Dreveneuse field site (Valais Prealps) with two boreholes, surface temperature sensors and an anemometer permitted to verify and to detail the ventilation mechanism active in low altitude talus slopes. This mechanism works in the following way: in winter, the air contained in the block accumulation is warmer and lighter than the surrounding air and therefore moves upward in the talus and is expelled in its upper part. This chimney effect induces an aspiration of cold air in the interior of the lower part of talus, that causes a strong overcooling of the ground. In summer, the mechanism is reversed because the talus slope is colder than the surrounding air. Cold air is then expelled in the lower part of the slope. Evidence of ascending ventilation in wintertime could also be found in some of the studied high-altitude talus slopes. It is probably mainly responsible for the particular configuration of the observed frozen areas. Even if the existence of a chimney effect could not be demonstrated in all cases, notably because of interstitial ice that obstructs Résumé ? abstract - III - the air circulation, indices of its presence exist in nearly all the studied talus. The absence of permafrost at altitudes favourable to its presence could be explained, for example, by the terrain warming caused by expulsion of relatively warm air. Terrain movements were measured at about ten sites, mainly on rock glaciers, but also on a push moraine and some talus slopes. Field observations reveal that many rock glaciers display recent destabilization features (landslide scars, tilted blocks, presence of fine grained sediments at the surface, etc.) that indicate a probable recent acceleration of the creep velocities. This phenomenon, which seems to be widespread at the alpine scale, is probably linked to the permafrost warming during the last decades. The measured velocities are often higher than values usually proposed in the literature. In addition, strong inter-annual variations of the velocities were observed, which seems to depend on the mean annual ground temperature variations.

Characteristics of urban heat island (UHI) in a high latitude coastal city - a case study of Turku, SW Finland

The term urban heat island (UHI) refers to the common situation in which the city is warmer than its rural surroundings. In this dissertation, the local climate, and especially the UHI, of the coastal city of Turku (182,000 inh.), SW Finland, was studied in different spatial and temporal scales. The crucial aim was to sort out the urban, topographical and water body impact on temperatures at different seasons and times of the day. In addition, the impact of weather on spatiotemporal temperature differences was studied. The relative importance of environmental factors was estimated with different modelling approaches and a large number of explanatory variables with various spatial scales. The city centre is the warmest place in the Turku area. Temperature excess relative to the coldest sites, i.e. rural areas about 10 kilometers to the NE from the centre, is on average 2 °C. Occasionally, the UHI intensity can be even 10 °C. The UHI does not prevail continuously in the Turku area, but occasionally the city centre can be colder than its surroundings. Then the term urban cool island or urban cold island (UCI) is used. The UCI is most common in daytime in spring and in summer, whereas during winter the UHI prevails throughout the day. On average, the spatial temperature differences are largest in summer, whereas the single extreme values are often observed in winter. The seasonally varying sea temperature causes the shift of relatively warm areas towards the coast in autumn and inland in spring. In the long term, urban land use was concluded to be the most important factor causing spatial temperature differences in the Turku area. The impact was mainly a warming one. The impact of water bodies was emphasised in spring and autumn, when the water temperature was relatively cold and warm, respectively. The impact of topography was on average the weakest, and was seen mainly in proneness of relatively low-lying places for cold air drainage during night-time. During inversions, however, the impact of topography was emphasised, occasionally outperforming those of urban land use and water bodies.

Évolution spatio-temporelle du pergélisol alpin marginal au mont Jacques-Cartier, massif des Chic-Chocs, Gaspésie (Qc)

L’objectif de ce mémoire est d’acquérir une connaissance détaillée sur l’évolution spatiale de la température de surface du sol (GST) au mont Jacques-Cartier et sur la réponse thermique de son îlot de pergélisol alpin aux changements climatiques passés et futurs. L’étude est basée sur un ensemble de mesures de température (GST, sous-sol) et de neige, ainsi que des modèles spatiaux de distribution potentielle de la GST et des simulations numériques du régime thermique du sol. Les résultats montrent que la distribution de la GST sur le plateau est principalement corrélée avec la répartition du couvert nival. Au-dessus de la limite de la végétation, le plateau est caractérisé par un couvert de neige peu épais et discontinu en hiver en raison de la topographie du site et l’action des forts vents. La GST est alors couplée avec les températures de l’air amenant des conditions froides en surface. Dans les îlots de krummholz et les dépressions topographiques sur les versants SE sous le vent, la neige soufflée du plateau s’accumule en un couvert très épais induisant des conditions de surface beaucoup plus chaude que sur le plateau dû à l’effet isolant de la neige. En raison de la quasi-absence de neige en hiver et de la nature du substrat, la réponse du pergélisol du sommet du mont Jacques-Cartier au signal climatique est très rapide. De 1978 à 2014, la température du sol a augmenté à toutes les profondeurs au niveau du forage suivant la même tendance que les températures de l’air. Si la tendance au réchauffement se poursuit telle que prévue par les simulations climatiques produites par le consortium Ouranos, le pergélisol pourrait disparaître d’ici à 2040-2050.

Meteorological aspects of an abnormal cooling event over Iran in April 2009

During the period from 12 to 15 April, 2009 nearly the entire Iran, apart from the southern border, experienced an advective cooling event. While winter freezing concerns are typical, the nature of this freezing event was unusual with respect to its date of occurrence and accompanying synoptic meteorological situation. To analyze the freezing event, the relevant meteorological data at multiple levels of the atmosphere were examined from the NCEP/ NCAR reanalysis dataset. The results showed that a polar vortex was responsible for the freezing event over the country extending southward extraordinarily in such a way that its ridge influenced most parts of Iran. This was recognized as an abnormal extension of a polar vortex in the recent years. The sea-level pressure fields indicated that a ridge of large-scale anticyclone centered over Black Sea extended southward and prevailed over most parts of Iran. This resulted in the formation of a severe cold air advection from high latitudes (Polar region) over Iran. During the study period, moisture pumping was observed from the Arabian Sea and Persian Gulf. The winds at 1000 hPa level blew with a magnitude of 10 m s-1 toward south in the region of convergence (between -2 9 10-6 s-1 and -12 9 10-6 s-1). The vertical profilesof temperature and humidity also indicated that the ICE structural icing occurred at multiple levels of the atmosphere, i.e, from 800 hPa through 400 hPa levels. In addition to the carburetor (or induction), icing occurred between 900 and 700 hPa levels in the selected radiosonde stations during the study period. In addition, the HYSPLIT backward trajectory model outputs were in quite good agreement with the observed synoptic features

The impact of deformation strain on the formation of banded clouds in idealized modeling experiments

Experiments are performed using an idealized version of an operational forecast model to determine the impact on banded frontal clouds of the strength of deformational forcing, low-level baroclinicity, and model representation of convection. Line convection is initiated along the front, and slantwise bands extend from the top of the line-convection elements into the cold air. This banding is attributed primarily to M adjustment. The cross-frontal spreading of the cold pool generated by the line convection leads to further triggering of upright convection in the cold air that feeds into these slantwise bands. Secondary low-level bands form later in the simulations; these are attributed to the release of conditional symmetric instability. Enhanced deformation strain leads to earlier onset of convection and more coherent line convection. A stronger cold pool is generated, but its speed is reduced relative to that seen in experiments with weaker deformational strain, because of inhibition by the strain field. Enhanced low-level baroclinicity leads to the generation of more inertial instability by line convection (for a given capping height of convection), and consequently greater strength of the slantwise circulations formed by M adjustment. These conclusions are based on experiments without a convective-parametrization scheme. Experiments using the standard or a modified scheme for this model demonstrate known problems with the use of this scheme at the awkward 4 km grid length used in these simulations. Copyright © 2008 Royal Meteorological Society

An objective climatology of the dynamical forcing of polar lows in the Nordic seas

A new objective climatology of polar lows in the Nordic (Norwegian and Barents) seas has been derived from a database of diagnostics of objectively identified cyclones spanning the period January 2000 to April 2004. There are two distinct parts to this study: the development of the objective climatology and a characterization of the dynamical forcing of the polar lows identified. Polar lows are an intense subset of polar mesocyclones. Polar mesocyclones are distinguished from other cyclones in the database as those that occur in cold air outbreaks over the open ocean. The difference between the wet-bulb potential temperature at 700 hPa and the sea surface temperature (SST) is found to be an effective discriminator between the atmospheric conditions associated with polar lows and other cyclones in the Nordic seas. A verification study shows that the objective identification method is reliable in the Nordic seas region. After demonstrating success at identifying polar lows using the above method, the dynamical forcing of the polar lows in the Nordic seas is characterized. Diagnostics of the ratio of mid-level vertical motion attributable to quasi-geostrophic forcing from upper and lower levels (U/L ratio) are used to determine the prevalence of a recently proposed category of extratropical cyclogenesis, type C, for which latent heat release is crucial to development. Thirty-one percent of the objectively identified polar low events (36 from 115) exceeded the U/L ratio of 4.0, previously identified as a threshold for type C cyclones. There is a contrast between polar lows to the north and south of the Nordic seas. In the southern Norwegian Sea, the population of polar low events is dominated by type C cyclones. These possess strong convection and weak low-level baroclinicity. Over the Barents and northern Norwegian seas, the well-known cyclogenesis types A and B dominate. These possess stronger low-level baroclinicity and weaker convection.

Further investigation of the impact of idealised continents and SST distributions on the Northern Hemisphere storm tracks

Building on studies by Brayshaw et al. (2009, 2011) of the basic ingredients of the North Atlantic storm track (land-sea contrast, orography and SST), this article investigates the impact of Eurasian topography and Pacific SST anomalies on the North Pacific and Atlantic storm tracks through a hierarchy of atmospheric GCM simulations using idealised boundary conditions in the HadGAM1 model. The Himalaya-Tibet mountain complex is found to play a crucial role in shaping the North Pacific storm track. The northward deflection of the westerly flow around northern Tibet generates an extensive pool of very cold air in the north-eastern tip of the Asian continent, which strengthens the meridional temperature gradient and favours baroclinic growth in the western Pacific. The Kuroshio SST front is also instrumental in strengthening the Pacific storm track through its impact on near-surface baroclinicity, while the warm waters around Indonesia tend to weaken it through the impact on baroclinicity of stationary Rossby waves propagating poleward from the convective heating regions. Three mechanisms by which the Atlantic storm track may be affected by changes in the boundary conditions upstream of the Rockies are discussed. In the model configuration used here, stationary Rossby waves emanating from Tibet appear to weaken the North Atlantic storm track substantially, whereas those generated over the cold waters off Peru appear to strengthen it. Changes in eddy-driven surface winds over the Pacific generally appear to modify the flow over the Rocky Mountains, leading to consistent modifications in the Atlantic storm track. The evidence for each of these mechanisms is, however, ultimately equivocal in these simulations.

The impact of 21st century Arctic sea ice decline on the climate and mass balance of the Greenland ice sheet and Svalbard’s glaciers and ice caps

The Arctic is a region particularly susceptible to rapid climate change. General circulation models (GCMs) suggest a polar amplification of any global warming signal by a factor of about 1.5 due, in part, to sea ice feedbacks. The dramatic recent decline in multi-year sea ice cover lies outside the standard deviation of the CMIP3 ensemble GCM predictions. Sea ice acts as a barrier between cold air and warmer oceans during winter, as well as inhibiting evaporation from the ocean surface water during the summer. An ice free Arctic would likely have an altered hydrological cycle with more evaporation from the ocean surface leading to changes in precipitation distribution and amount. Using the U.K. Met Office Regional Climate Model (RCM), HadRM3, the atmospheric effects of the observed and projected reduction in Arctic sea ice are investigated. The RCM is driven by the atmospheric GCM HadAM3. Both models are forced with sea surface temperature and sea ice for the period 2061-2090 from the CMIP3 HadGEM1 experiments. Here we use an RCM at 50km resolution over the Arctic and 25km over Svalbard, which captures well the present-day pattern of precipitation and provides a detailed picture of the projected changes in the behaviour of the oceanic-atmosphere moisture fluxes and how they affect precipitation. These experiments show that the projected 21stCentury sea ice decline alone causes large impacts to the surface mass balance (SMB) on Svalbard. However Greenland’s SMB is not significantly affected by sea ice decline alone, but responds with a strongly negative shift in SMB when changes to SST are incorporated into the experiments. This is the first study to characterise the impact of changes in future sea ice to Arctic terrestrial cryosphere mass balance.

Wave-breaking characteristics of midlatitude blocking

In this article, Northern Hemisphere winter midlatitude blocking is analysed through its wave-breaking characteristics. Rossby wave breaking is identified as a key process in blocking occurrence, as it provides the mechanism for the meridional reversal pattern typical of blocking. Two indices are designed to detect the major properties of wave breaking, i.e. the orientation (cyclonic/anticyclonic–direction of breaking or DB index) and the relative contribution of air masses (warm/cold–relative intensity or RI index). The use of the DB index differentiates between the anticyclonic cases over Europe and Asia and the cyclonic events over the oceanic basins. One of the three regions displaying cyclonic type was found over the Atlantic Ocean, the other two being over the Pacific Ocean. The first of these is located over the western side of the Pacific and is dominated by warm air extrusions, whereas the second is placed northward of the exit region of the jet stream, where the meridional θ gradient is much weaker. Two European blocking types have been detected using the RI index, which separates out the cases dominated by warm and cold air masses. The latter cases in particular exhibited a well-structured dipole, with associated strong anomalies in both temperature and precipitation. Copyright © 2011 Royal Meteorological Society